Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 12th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cueto | CIN | CHC | 315 | 2.40 | 3.18 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 24.7% | 6.2% | 0.86 | 1.30 |
| Hammel | CHC | CIN | 251.1 | 3.26 | 3.31 | 1.05 | 47.4% | 23.2% | 5.3% | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| Correia | PHI | PIT | 154 | 5.44 | 4.73 | 1.50 | 45.0% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| Locke | PIT | PHI | 193.1 | 4.38 | 4.12 | 1.36 | 66.7% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.07 | 1.73 |
| Pineda | NYY | BAL | 146.2 | 2.58 | 2.97 | 0.99 | 75.0% | 23.3% | 2.4% | 0.68 | 1.28 |
| Jimenez | BAL | NYY | 188 | 4.21 | 4.28 | 1.43 | 27.8% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 0.91 | 1.32 |
| Salazar | CLE | DET | 171.2 | 3.98 | 3.05 | 1.30 | 12.5% | 27.6% | 7.1% | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| Price | DET | CLE | 331.2 | 3.12 | 2.96 | 1.10 | 52.4% | 25.5% | 4.3% | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| Kendrick | COL | MIA | 265 | 5.09 | 4.63 | 1.39 | 30.0% | 13.2% | 6.8% | 1.36 | 1.23 |
| Urena | MIA | COL | 13.2 | 7.24 | 4.59 | 1.61 | 11.3% | 6.5% | 1.32 | 1.67 | |
| Danks | CHW | TBR | 256.1 | 4.85 | 4.60 | 1.46 | 50.0% | 15.5% | 8.3% | 1.23 | 1.05 |
| Andriese | TBR | CHW | 20.2 | 4.79 | 3.80 | 1.55 | 13.8% | 5.3% | 1.31 | 2.16 | |
| Wood | ATL | NYM | 233.2 | 2.89 | 3.44 | 1.22 | 58.3% | 22.2% | 6.6% | 0.69 | 1.41 |
| Colon | NYM | ATL | 278 | 4.21 | 3.69 | 1.20 | 42.1% | 18.3% | 3.1% | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| Hutchison | TOR | BOS | 254.1 | 4.60 | 3.63 | 1.27 | 31.6% | 22.5% | 7.1% | 1.06 | 0.93 |
| Kelly | BOS | TOR | 156.1 | 4.66 | 4.20 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 9.7% | 0.86 | 2.05 |
| Milone | MIN | TEX | 145.2 | 4.26 | 4.76 | 1.43 | 43.8% | 13.7% | 7.6% | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| Rodriguez | TEX | MIN | 79.1 | 4.42 | 4.11 | 1.37 | 18.2% | 7.5% | 1.59 | 1.30 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | HOU | 318.1 | 2.23 | 2.60 | 0.93 | 81.0% | 26.8% | 5.6% | 0.68 | 2.27 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | SEA | 155.2 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 1.43 | 41.7% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 0.69 | 0.90 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIL | 268.1 | 2.72 | 3.43 | 1.11 | 52.6% | 21.0% | 4.1% | 0.54 | 1.11 |
| Fiers | MIL | WAS | 129.1 | 2.99 | 3.09 | 1.15 | 27.2% | 6.8% | 0.97 | 0.79 | |
| Ventura | KCR | STL | 247.1 | 3.57 | 3.84 | 1.28 | 44.4% | 20.2% | 8.5% | 0.76 | 1.62 |
| Garcia | STL | KCR | 70.2 | 3.57 | 2.90 | 1.03 | 28.6% | 20.6% | 4.3% | 1.02 | 2.70 |
| Chavez | OAK | LAA | 210.2 | 3.16 | 3.63 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 7.4% | 0.85 | 1.16 |
| Santiago | LAA | OAK | 198 | 3.32 | 4.34 | 1.29 | 16.7% | 20.4% | 9.5% | 1.05 | 0.60 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SDP | 278.2 | 2.23 | 2.17 | 0.92 | 66.7% | 31.8% | 4.7% | 0.52 | 1.90 |
| Despaigne | SDP | LAD | 145.2 | 3.77 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 100.0% | 14.7% | 7.2% | 0.74 | 1.73 |
| Anderson | ARI | SFG | 180.2 | 3.69 | 3.86 | 1.32 | 40.0% | 20.1% | 7.3% | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | ARI | 294.2 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 24.5% | 4.7% | 0.95 | 1.17 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at HOU) – Not that he needs any help, with a strikeout rate that has cracked 25 percent for three consecutive seasons, but the fact that Felix is facing a hacktastic Astros club just adds more fuel to the fire of his supremacy (and helps to cover for his complete lack of double-digit K outings since mid-April). He did have a disaster start two turns ago, in which he surrendered 7 runs without escaping the fifth inning against the Yankees, but he has kept the opposition under three runs scored in 9 of his 12 starts this season. The arm-side run and late fade of his changeup make it one of the most deceiving – and deadly – weapons in the sport, such that his AL-leading hit rate of the past two seasons is more reality than mirage.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SD) – The stat line makes it look like Kershaw just hasn’t been himself this season. The pitcher who has led the majors in ERA for four consecutive seasons, including back-to-back years under the hard deck of a 2.00 ERA, a time during which he allowed four or more earned runs just four times in 60 starts, This season he has already tossed three such games in just 12 turns, and his dominance has been interrupted by temporary spurts of vulnerability that could cost him the CY this season, but the only thing standing in the way of his earning the top spot for today’s slate is the tyrannical reign of King Felix.
David Price DET (vs. CLE) – Somewhat surprisingly, Cleveland hits southpaws and right-handers with nearly the same aptitude, dropping a 730 OPS regardless of the handedness of their opponent. Price has had one of his finest seasons in a career full of healthy campaigns, with a 2.70 ERA that would qualify as the second-lowest mark of his career. He is the foreman of a Detroit rotation that has been beset by injuries and lack of performance, and though reinforcements are arriving in the form of former AL MVP Justin Verlander, the Tigers playoff hopes hang largely on the left arm of Price.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. ARI) – Bummer is facing the NL’s top offense today in his head-to-head matchup with the Diamondbacks, who have scored the most runs in the league at 4.68 tallies per game. As a team, Arizona hits lefties and righties equally, and they had reasonable success the last time that they faced Bumgarner, scoring four runs in seven innings while striking out just four times. Bumgarner is coming off of a mixed start in which he registered a season-high 11 strikeouts but also five earned runs against the Phillies and their league-worst offense.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Salazar CLE (at DET) – Salazar is somewhat famous for his inconsistency at this point, but he has maintained a modicum of trust throughout the 2015 season. He leads the majors with 11.8 K’s per nine innings, has hit double-digit strikeouts in four separate turns this season, and his walk rate 6.7 percent is the lowest of his career, though the home run rate is still higher than one likes to see (9 homers in 61.7 frames). The Tigers typically present an intimidating challenge, but the club just hasn’t been hitting lately, so Salazar could be catching them at the perfect time as he goes toe-to-toe with Detroit ace David Price.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at MIL) – His early-season struggles were well publicized, so it might surprise some readers to learn that he has put up 10 quality starts in 12 turns this season. The low K rate is an issue (just 48 strikeouts in 73.7 innings this year) is a massive hindrance to his value in DFS, though, and his historical record for pitching to contact means that he essentially needs to allow few runs while generating plenty of outs in order to compensate for the lack of points that he receives via strikeouts.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cueto | 0.253 | 2.05 | 0.268 | 2.63 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.240 | 3.32 | 0.196 | 106.27 | 24.7% |
| Hammel | 0.300 | 2.66 | 0.276 | 3.69 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.267 | 3.63 | 0.225 | 94.63 | 23.2% |
| Correia | 0.365 | 4.92 | 0.348 | 6.03 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.315 | 4.67 | 0.298 | 0.00 | 11.5% |
| Locke | 0.282 | 3.70 | 0.339 | 4.56 | 0.281 | 0.756 | 0.294 | 4.33 | 0.262 | 94.22 | 16.8% |
| Pineda | 0.269 | 1.86 | 0.274 | 3.28 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.287 | 2.57 | 0.232 | 93.04 | 23.3% |
| Jimenez | 0.339 | 4.70 | 0.300 | 3.67 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.293 | 4.24 | 0.239 | 91.81 | 21.6% |
| Salazar | 0.303 | 3.65 | 0.335 | 4.24 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.333 | 3.48 | 0.255 | 96.87 | 27.6% |
| Price | 0.286 | 2.79 | 0.283 | 3.23 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.301 | 2.85 | 0.237 | 108.80 | 25.5% |
| Kendrick | 0.379 | 5.70 | 0.321 | 4.54 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.287 | 5.01 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 13.2% |
| Urena | 0.289 | 4.70 | 0.362 | 6.00 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.333 | 5.09 | 0.316 | 0.00 | 11.3% |
| Danks | 0.311 | 4.24 | 0.369 | 5.07 | 0.246 | 0.736 | 0.300 | 4.77 | 0.272 | 101.21 | 15.5% |
| Andriese | 0.412 | 7.20 | 0.308 | 2.53 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.333 | 4.62 | 0.307 | 50.00 | 13.8% |
| Wood | 0.292 | 2.01 | 0.302 | 3.24 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.309 | 3.20 | 0.249 | 81.33 | 22.2% |
| Colon | 0.311 | 4.22 | 0.317 | 4.20 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.303 | 3.64 | 0.267 | 94.19 | 18.3% |
| Hutchison | 0.332 | 5.43 | 0.300 | 3.57 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.300 | 3.79 | 0.248 | 94.80 | 22.5% |
| Kelly | 0.293 | 3.44 | 0.336 | 6.07 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.283 | 4.28 | 0.245 | 94.25 | 17.3% |
| Milone | 0.310 | 3.62 | 0.351 | 4.45 | 0.240 | 0.700 | 0.285 | 5.09 | 0.27 | 88.81 | 13.7% |
| Rodriguez | 0.366 | 5.40 | 0.340 | 4.16 | 0.262 | 0.672 | 0.286 | 4.93 | 0.261 | 90.93 | 18.2% |
| Hernandez | 0.244 | 1.73 | 0.255 | 2.87 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.253 | 2.78 | 0.197 | 100.74 | 26.8% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.330 | 3.93 | 0.336 | 4.46 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.333 | 3.56 | 0.292 | 91.67 | 15.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.306 | 3.25 | 0.263 | 2.37 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.302 | 2.79 | 0.247 | 91.72 | 21.0% |
| Fiers | 0.293 | 2.98 | 0.301 | 3.07 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.296 | 3.20 | 0.229 | 85.80 | 27.2% |
| Ventura | 0.305 | 3.45 | 0.304 | 3.72 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.290 | 3.71 | 0.241 | 95.10 | 20.2% |
| Garcia | 0.370 | 5.52 | 0.273 | 3.05 | 0.297 | 0.805 | 0.269 | 3.62 | 0.233 | 91.09 | 20.6% |
| Chavez | 0.298 | 2.71 | 0.295 | 3.69 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.299 | 3.55 | 0.246 | 75.31 | 21.8% |
| Santiago | 0.256 | 2.21 | 0.318 | 3.77 | 0.206 | 0.543 | 0.272 | 4.24 | 0.233 | 82.67 | 20.4% |
| Kershaw | 0.236 | 1.99 | 0.247 | 2.29 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.286 | 2.03 | 0.202 | 100.49 | 31.8% |
| Despaigne | 0.324 | 3.33 | 0.290 | 4.32 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.268 | 4.05 | 0.241 | 86.93 | 14.7% |
| Anderson | 0.320 | 3.69 | 0.333 | 3.69 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.312 | 3.82 | 0.263 | 92.41 | 20.1% |
| Bumgarner | 0.237 | 1.53 | 0.300 | 3.48 | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.291 | 3.19 | 0.235 | 101.42 | 24.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Yordano Ventura KC (at STL) – Ventura is having a rough year, alternating rough starts with gems, such that 6 of his 11 games started this season have resulted in his being charged with 4 or more runs. He was on a four-start run of 21 or more outs and appeared to be busting out of his early-season doldrums, that is until his last start, when Ventura was chased by the Rangers after just 3.0 innings pitched. The K’s are down but so are the walks, and today might be a good day to avoid the hard-throwing right-hander, given that the Cardinals beat him for four runs earlier in the season.
Mike Fiers MIL (vs. WAS) – Fiers is the ultimate boom or bust candidate, and his pitch-count inefficiency is personified by his last start, in which Fiers thew 91 pitches while getting just 13 outs. The game log looks deceivingly consistent, with exactly two runs allowed in five his last six starts, but the issue with rostering Fiers is exemplified by the fact that he has pitched into the seventh inning just once in his past six turns.
Alex Wood ATL (at NYM) – The Mets hit left-handers better than righties by 40 points of OPS this season, an element that will be exaggerated with the return of Travis d’Arnaud to the New York lineup. The overall line is solid yet unspectacular, but Wood’s game log is more telling, with only one of his 11 starts this season exceeding three runs allowed. The big problem is a K rate that has cratered since previous seasons, counteracting the lowest rate of homers allowed in the majors (among starting pitchers).
Jesse Chavez OAK (at LAA) – Rostering Chavez has been a reasonably safe move this season, as he has avoided the traditional blow-up (2.51 ERA) while piling up a solid K count in his 9 starts this season. The low walk rate (6.2 percent) is much improved over any previous season, coming in 1.5 percentage points below his previous best, and his low homer rate should pay dividends against an Angels club that has leaned heavily on the longballs of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols.
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. OAK) – Chavez faces off against Hector Santiago, who has been even safer than his counterpart when looking at this start-to-start performance in 2015. He has given up one or zero earnies in 8 of his 12 starts this season, and he sets up well against an Oakland club that, despite playing much better than their league-worst record might suggest (Oakland’s run differential is +10 this year), has an OPS that is almost 100 points lower versus left-handed pitchers.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at BOS)
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. KC)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. ATL)
Chase Anderson ARI (at SF)
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (vs. LAD)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs PHI)
Brett Oberholtzer HOU (vs. SEA)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (vs. MIN)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Tommy Milone MIN (at TEX)
Joe Kelly BOS (vs. TOR)
Jose Urena MIA (vs. COL)
Matt Andriese TB (vs. CHW)
John Danks CHW (at TB)
Kyle Kendrick COL (at MIA)
Kevin Correia PHI (at PIT)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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