Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, May 23rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-24 03:14:11

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Colon	NYM	WAS	242.2	4.08	3.98	1.24	42.1%	17.3%	3.3%	1.15	1.14
Gonzalez	WAS	NYM	224	3.38	3.82	1.35	46.7%	21.8%	8.6%	0.44	1.82
Velasquez	PHI	DET	104	3.46	3.40	1.14		27.7%	8.5%	0.69	0.76
Pelfrey	DET	PHI	205.2	4.51	4.71	1.54		12.1%	7.0%	0.83	1.87
Moore	TBR	MIA	109	5.28	4.29	1.47		19.3%	8.0%	1.40	1.10
Chen	MIA	TBR	240.1	3.52	3.91	1.22	31.6%	19.6%	5.0%	1.27	1.09
Tropeano	LAA	TEX	81.1	3.54	4.09	1.46		22.7%	9.0%	1.00	0.79
Holland	TEX	LAA	98.2	5.20	4.80	1.35		14.8%	7.1%	1.28	0.98
Clevinger	CLE	CWS
Latos	CWS	CLE	161.1	4.69	4.29	1.35	66.7%	17.7%	7.1%	1.06	1.31
Kennedy	KCR	MIN	218.1	4.04	3.66	1.25	47.6%	24.5%	7.5%	1.57	0.93
Nolasco	MIN	KCR	86.2	5.61	3.88	1.44	16.7%	20.6%	6.1%	1.04	1.19
Lackey	CHC	STL	272.1	2.88	3.81	1.16	57.9%	20.6%	5.9%	0.86	1.33
Wainwright	STL	CHC	79.2	4.41	4.38	1.36	84.2%	15.0%	5.3%	0.56	1.44
Finnegan	CIN	LAD	96.2	4.00	4.33	1.30		20.1%	10.6%	1.58	1.47
Kershaw	LAD	CIN	302.2	2.02	2.16	0.84	66.7%	34.0%	4.0%	0.54	1.77
Hill	OAK	SEA	78.2	2.17	3.06	0.95		30.3%	8.3%	0.46	1.44
Walker	SEA	OAK	212.1	4.24	3.63	1.18		22.4%	5.4%	1.31	1.10
Pomeranz	SDP	SFG	132	3.07	3.65	1.14	25.0%	25.5%	9.6%	0.75	1.13
Cueto	SFG	SDP	278.2	3.26	3.69	1.12	76.2%	21.0%	5.1%	0.74	1.29

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. CIN) – Kershaw will be very heavily owned today, especially in the flat-reward tournaments like 50/50s and Triple-Ups, and for good cause. He’s the best pitcher on board by a large margin today, particularly on a slate that is light on strikeout-heavy arms where Kershaw and his six straight games with double-digit Ks stand out from the crowd. He has been particularly ridiculous in the month of May, posting video game numbers: 33.0 innings, a 0.82 ERA with 48 strikeouts and one walk across four starts. There is a very good chance that the highest scores of today will have Kersh on the roster.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. SD) – The Padres have made heroes of lesser pitchers, and Cueto could have a field day against the weak San Diego lineup, buffered by the cavernous dimensions at ATT Park. He’s been a bit inconsistent this season, particularly in terms of the K count from game to game, but he’s on a strikeout-laden run with eight or more Ks in four of his last five starts. Two of those turns came against the Padres, and Cueto’s numbers from those two games are dominant: 18.0 innings pitched (two complete games) with a 0.50 ERA, 19 strikeouts and three walks allowed. Cueto’s expensive today, but he’s worth it.

Rich Hill OAK (at SEA) – Hill hasn’t had one of his vintage 10-strikeout games in a while, topping out at seven strikeouts in his turns from this month, so perhaps he’s due. He looked like a mess in spring training and his first start inspired zero confidence, but Hill has since rattled off seven straight games with three runs allowed or fewer, earning the quality start in five of those outings. His walks can be a problem, giving away 3-4 free passes in six of his last eight games, but he has made up the difference with a hit count that has been unsustainable over his last six starts, with just 18 hits allowed in 36.2 innings pitched.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. NYM) – Gonzalez has been very consistent this season, and aside from a five-run hiccup against the Cubs at Wrigley (we’ll give him a mulligan for that one), Gio has allowed three runs or fewer in every start this season while pitching enough innings to snag a quality start in six of those seven turns. His last start was against the Mets at Citi Field, and Gonzalez pitched a strong 6.1 innings with one run allowed along with six baserunners, striking out five batters on the day. His only blemish was a home run by Yoenis Cespedes, and Gio will want to be careful with Cespy in today’s game given that the Mets outfielder is slugging 1.118 on curveballs this season with four home runs, and the curve is Gio’s signature pitch.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Colon	0.311	3.76	0.321	4.45	0.245	0.712	0.308	3.81	0.274	0.00	17.3%
Gonzalez	0.273	3.00	0.308	3.49	0.239	0.711	0.322	3.06	0.253	0.01	21.8%
Velasquez	0.270	2.68	0.302	4.40	0.268	0.740	0.291	2.99	0.217	0.01	27.7%
Pelfrey	0.382	5.17	0.320	3.95	0.243	0.676	0.335	4.36	0.306	0.00	12.1%
Moore	0.341	5.97	0.351	5.00	0.275	0.736	0.323	4.67	0.281	0.00	19.3%
Chen	0.254	1.94	0.342	4.00	0.260	0.765	0.296	4.03	0.26	0.01	19.6%
Tropeano	0.351	2.57	0.316	4.58	0.257	0.736	0.333	3.77	0.269	0.01	22.7%
Holland	0.303	4.32	0.350	5.38	0.234	0.671	0.289	4.80	0.268	0.00	14.8%
Clevinger					0.252	0.702
Latos	0.348	5.28	0.302	4.17	0.253	0.726	0.301	4.09	0.264	0.01	17.7%
Kennedy	0.337	4.11	0.331	3.97	0.241	0.693	0.291	4.43	0.246	0.01	24.5%
Nolasco	0.325	5.54	0.353	5.66	0.265	0.729	0.345	3.64	0.287	0.00	20.6%
Lackey	0.321	2.85	0.266	2.89	0.266	0.760	0.290	3.47	0.244	0.01	20.6%
Wainwright	0.313	4.50	0.335	4.34	0.249	0.740	0.321	3.36	0.28	0.01	15.0%
Finnegan	0.343	3.91	0.314	4.03	0.259	0.746	0.243	5.14	0.223	0.01	20.1%
Kershaw	0.222	2.06	0.224	2.01	0.251	0.721	0.278	1.84	0.191	0.01	34.0%
Hill	0.197	2.37	0.253	2.11	0.260	0.734	0.250	2.69	0.176	0.02	30.3%
Walker	0.299	3.95	0.317	4.59	0.249	0.703	0.288	3.99	0.246	0.01	22.4%
Pomeranz	0.211	2.05	0.298	3.58	0.269	0.714	0.260	3.36	0.203	0.00	25.5%
Cueto	0.270	2.63	0.305	3.81	0.240	0.676	0.289	3.22	0.24	0.01	21.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Drew Pomeranz SD (at SF) – San Diego has been very good to Pomeranz. He’s thrown 6.0 or more innings in three pf his last four turns, has given up just 28 hits in 46.0 frames this season and has struck out five or more batters in every start. He’s similar to Hill in that the hiit rate has been so low as to be unsustainable, and the walks are high enough to be worrisome, as Pomeranz has walked exactly three batters in six of his eight outings this year. He has reached double-digit Ks twice this year, but in three of his last four starts Pomeranz has whiffed just five batters in each. He struck out five Giants in his last turn, with two runs and six baserunners allowed in 6.0 innings; those numbers serve as a good proxy for his expectations in tonight’s game.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. OAK) – Walker was the new hotness a month ago, finishing April with a 1.44 ERA and 25 strikeouts against three walks in 25.0 innings pitched, including six-plus inning of two or fewer runs allowed in every start. His performance turned with the calendar, with progressively worse results in terms of runs allowed and innings pitched. He hasn’t finished the sixth inning in any of his four starts, has coughed up three runs or more in each turn (though four of his 14 runs allowed have been unearned), and has walked five batters across his last two starts. He did strike out nine Rays two starts ago, and the A’s present a lineup that can take advantage of platoon splits, but Walker’s inverse split of 200 points of OPS will make the Oakland lineup configuration an interesting subplot of this game.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (at DET) – This one is shaky. Velasquez hasn’t really impressed since his 16-strikeout domination of the Padres in his second start of the year, and though he did strike out 10 Marlins in his last start, in the five turns between he topped out at a half-dozen punchouts in any one turn. Meanwhile, the Tigers are hot, with an incredible .412 wOBA and .973 OPS over the last seven days, the largest numbers of the offenses that are playing today. Miguel Cabrera left yesterday’s game early, after getting hit in the knee with a pitch, and though it’s not a major injury he could be given a day of rest. Whether Miggy plays will be a big factor in the strength of the lineup that VV faces, as Miggy’s recent performance (.467/.514/1.033 with 5 home runs in last 8 games) has been a big part of the juggernaut Detroit offense of late. Velasquez is pricey ($11800 on DraftKings), and I can’t see a justification for his exorbitant price tag, so I would only consider him as a zig play in big tournaments.

John Lackey CHC (at STL) – The first month of the season was rocky for Lackey, including a pair of six-run starts sandwiched around an 11-K gem. That 11-strikeout performance included zero runs and just five baserunners over 7.0 innings, earning Lackey his most fantasy points of the season (38.75 points on DraftKings), and that particular start came against these rival Cardinals in St. Louis. He’ll have an opportunity to turn the trick again in today’s game, and this time Lackey is coming off a string of excellent starts, going 4-for-4 in quality starts in May with a combined line of a 1.86 ERA and 25:6 K:BB ratio in 29.0 innings.

Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. TB) – Chen was expected to benefit greatly from the transition out of Camden Yards and into Marlins Park, but his numbers thus far look remarkably similar to those he posted in Baltimore, except with a 4.22 ERA that would be the highest of his career if over a full season. The walks stay low and the homers are plentiful when Chen takes the mound against any team, but the Rays are particularly adept at hitting lefties (.330 wOBA and .765 OPS) and things could get ugly. Chen will benefit from the absence of southpaw-slayer Logan Forsythe, but the Rays haven’t needed Forsythe to post a sick .385 wOBA and .911 OPS over their last seven games, second behind the Tigers for the past week’s most potent offense among the teams on today’s slate.

Ian Kennedy KC (at MIN)

Matt Moore TB (at MIA)

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. CHC) – Waino is coming off his best start of the year (by far), but the Cubs have a way of disrupting a pitcher’s statline.

Nick Tropeano LAA (at TEX)

Bartolo Colon NYM (at WAS)

Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. PHI)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at LAD)

Derek Holland TEX (vs. LAA)