Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, September 21st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimenez | BAL | WAS | 290.1 | 4.53 | 4.22 | 1.43 | 27.8% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.02 | 1.44 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | BAL | 318.2 | 3.70 | 3.63 | 1.31 | 46.7% | 23.5% | 8.8% | 0.51 | 1.59 |
| Warren | NYY | TOR | 197.2 | 3.19 | 3.62 | 1.14 | 20.8% | 7.2% | 0.64 | 1.36 | |
| Price | TOR | NYY | 456.2 | 2.88 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.1% | 4.5% | 0.81 | 1.11 |
| Johnson | CHW | DET | 40.2 | 5.31 | 5.14 | 1.60 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 1.33 | 0.90 |
| Wolf | DET | CHW | 50.2 | 5.86 | 4.27 | 1.62 | 25.0% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 1.42 | 1.22 |
| Miller | ATL | NYM | 369 | 3.37 | 4.33 | 1.26 | 21.1% | 18.5% | 8.9% | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Niese | NYM | ATL | 354.2 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 1.33 | 41.2% | 16.3% | 6.4% | 0.94 | 1.83 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 393 | 3.14 | 3.33 | 1.17 | 55.0% | 25.7% | 7.8% | 0.66 | 1.41 |
| Rodriguez | BOS | TBR | 109.2 | 3.94 | 4.15 | 1.29 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 0.98 | 1.32 | |
| Peralta | MIL | CHC | 302.2 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 1.37 | 47.4% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| Hammel | CHC | MIL | 333 | 3.59 | 3.48 | 1.14 | 47.4% | 23.3% | 6.1% | 1.19 | 1.01 |
| Weaver | LAA | HOU | 355.2 | 4.05 | 4.44 | 1.22 | 52.4% | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.21 | 0.71 |
| Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 411.1 | 2.74 | 2.96 | 1.10 | 50.0% | 20.9% | 5.7% | 0.59 | 3.26 |
| Lamb | CIN | STL | 37 | 5.35 | 3.55 | 1.57 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 1.22 | 0.93 | |
| Garcia | STL | CIN | 154.1 | 2.97 | 3.25 | 1.04 | 28.6% | 19.3% | 5.4% | 0.64 | 2.72 |
| Burnett | PIT | COL | 359.1 | 4.01 | 3.84 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 20.2% | 8.7% | 0.70 | 1.93 |
| Gray | COL | PIT | 36 | 5.00 | 3.93 | 1.56 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 0.50 | 1.35 | |
| Chacin | ARI | LAD | 81.2 | 4.85 | 4.62 | 1.36 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Anderson | LAD | ARI | 207.1 | 3.26 | 3.49 | 1.31 | 20.0% | 16.3% | 6.7% | 0.69 | 3.34 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. LAA) – I never thought that I’d see the day where Dallas Keuchel was the top option on the board, let alone one that saw him earn All-in status above vaunted aces like David Price and Chris Archer. To top it off, Keuchel is coming off his worst start of the season, an outing so bad that the nine earned runs that he allowed were just one fewer than the total of his next two worst outings combined. He has given up 16 homers this season but six of those bombs have taken place in the last three games, including three in the nine-run disaster against the Rangers in his last start. Assuming he got the itch out of his system, I expect Keuchel to get back on track with another outing of 20 or more points on DraftKings.
David Price TOR (vs. NYY) – Price is loving his new ballclub, with a 2.17 ERA and 74 strikeouts in nine starts covering 62.3 innings as a Blue Jay. The Yankees offense is imposing and the game carries serious implications for the AL East race between the two teams, but Price was not fazed when he faced the Bronx Bombers just two starts ago, and in two turns against the Yanks while pitching for his new ballclub Price has allowed just one run across 14.0 innings of work. He has struck out six or more batters in each start with Toronto, including six of nine starts with eight or more punchouts, and he might make for a tremendous value if his ownership percentage drops due to his opponent.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (at BOS) – Archer is in the midst of a massive breakout season, but his lack of consistency in recent starts has pushed him one run down the ladder for today. His last three starts have come against the AL East rival Yankees and Red Sox, a string that will become four in a row after tonight’s game, and his iverall line has been marred by some type of inefficiency in each of his last five ballgames. It started with the four runs and 10 baserunners that he gave up to the Twins, followed by relatively modest K counts in his next four turns, three of which involved multiple runs allowed. He has earned enough points on DraftKings to justify his exorbitant salary just once in his last five starts, though the potential for double-digit K’s provides the incentive to roster Archer tonight as well as a buffer against his waning run prevention.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimenez | 0.333 | 5.06 | 0.323 | 3.91 | 0.252 | 0.728 | 0.302 | 4.32 | 0.251 | 93.35 | 21.0% |
| Gonzalez | 0.284 | 3.51 | 0.308 | 3.76 | 0.246 | 0.682 | 0.319 | 3.07 | 0.246 | 96.22 | 23.5% |
| Warren | 0.255 | 2.40 | 0.307 | 3.80 | 0.264 | 0.781 | 0.276 | 3.38 | 0.227 | 30.00 | 20.8% |
| Price | 0.291 | 2.80 | 0.277 | 2.90 | 0.260 | 0.767 | 0.300 | 2.79 | 0.234 | 107.95 | 26.1% |
| Johnson | 0.423 | 5.29 | 0.313 | 5.32 | 0.269 | 0.739 | 0.303 | 5.42 | 0.271 | 96.00 | 16.7% |
| Wolf | 0.263 | 5.00 | 0.409 | 6.05 | 0.248 | 0.650 | 0.358 | 4.68 | 0.319 | 79.64 | 16.4% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 3.65 | 0.285 | 3.13 | 0.246 | 0.712 | 0.272 | 3.93 | 0.233 | 93.40 | 18.5% |
| Niese | 0.310 | 3.89 | 0.333 | 3.81 | 0.237 | 0.649 | 0.303 | 4.05 | 0.268 | 92.16 | 16.3% |
| Archer | 0.271 | 3.00 | 0.285 | 3.31 | 0.265 | 0.738 | 0.294 | 3.03 | 0.225 | 100.60 | 25.7% |
| Rodriguez | 0.380 | 5.84 | 0.285 | 3.39 | 0.258 | 0.747 | 0.288 | 3.96 | 0.248 | 95.84 | 19.0% |
| Peralta | 0.365 | 4.90 | 0.300 | 2.83 | 0.247 | 0.735 | 0.302 | 4.36 | 0.27 | 95.25 | 16.4% |
| Hammel | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.304 | 4.10 | 0.260 | 0.718 | 0.277 | 3.83 | 0.233 | 91.29 | 23.3% |
| Weaver | 0.329 | 4.05 | 0.295 | 4.05 | 0.245 | 0.732 | 0.271 | 4.42 | 0.247 | 97.02 | 16.7% |
| Keuchel | 0.239 | 2.63 | 0.284 | 2.77 | 0.232 | 0.663 | 0.283 | 3.07 | 0.233 | 104.66 | 20.9% |
| Lamb | 0.449 | 7.94 | 0.354 | 4.88 | 0.231 | 0.660 | 0.396 | 3.77 | 0.304 | 96.71 | 25.9% |
| Garcia | 0.317 | 4.59 | 0.253 | 2.53 | 0.247 | 0.723 | 0.262 | 3.30 | 0.222 | 92.88 | 19.3% |
| Burnett | 0.336 | 4.34 | 0.314 | 3.73 | 0.271 | 0.776 | 0.317 | 3.74 | 0.259 | 99.44 | 20.2% |
| Gray | 0.337 | 3.06 | 0.352 | 6.87 | 0.260 | 0.721 | 0.376 | 3.17 | 0.295 | 75.13 | 21.7% |
| Chacin | 0.345 | 6.21 | 0.326 | 3.91 | 0.248 | 0.744 | 0.275 | 4.76 | 0.251 | 92.86 | 16.2% |
| Anderson | 0.296 | 3.67 | 0.311 | 3.08 | 0.263 | 0.735 | 0.308 | 3.65 | 0.268 | 87.53 | 16.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
There’s a massive gap between the quality of the top three pitchers and everyone else on today’s slate, so gamers are stuck with the option of either spending big on pitching today or rolling the dice on at least one of the following arms.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. BAL) – The streaky Gonzalez has been tough to peg for the past couple of months, coasting through July before imploding in August, but the southpaw has converted into a strikeout machine in the last month of this season. He hadn’t struck out more than seven batters in a game between mid-April and late August, but he has achieved K counts of 10 and 12 in two of his last three turns, a fact that is tainted by the fact that his opponents in those games were the lowly offenses of the Phillies and Braves. The Orioles present a much more formidable task.
Shelby Miller ATL (at NYM) – Miller has been vulnerable to left-handed bats throughout his career, a factor which has become more exaggerated this season despite the expansion of his repertoire. The Mets have been one of the most potent offensive ballclub of the second half, and they picked the right time of the season to be firing on all cylinders. The new acquisitions are hitting, or in the case of Yoenis Cespedes ruining the lives of opposing pitchers, and the lineup is as healthy as it has been all season. Miller has been off his game lately, having given up four or more runs in four of his last six outings, and his own offensive support is so full of holes that the right-hander is 5-15 this season despite a 3.00 ERA.
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. CIN) – Regression isn’t an absolute inevitability, but sometimes it feels like it. Garcia was carrying an impossibly-low ERA of 1.77 through to the end of August, but three of his last four starts have involved four or more earned runs crossing the plate. He faced the Reds two starts ago in his worst game of the season, allowing 10 baserunners and six earnies in 4.3 innings of work. The other start was a gem, including seven shutout frames and nine strikeouts, but it marked the only time this season that he has cleared a half-dozen punchouts. Combine the magnet of regression with his recent performance and an opponent that has already handled the southpaw, and you get enough trepidation to stay away from Garcia tonight.
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. MIL) – The tale of two halves continues. Hammel famously lost it after his deadline trade to Oakland last season, and though he stayed in Chicago through the deadline this time around, Hammel has been unable to harness the same level of efficiency over the last two months that he had in the first half of the campaign. He hasn’t stuck around long enough to throw more than 80 pitches in five of his last eight starts, he has a 6.52 ERA over his last six turns, and his decent K counts have been compromised by an ERA that has jumped almost a full run in the second half of the season. He has figured out the Brewers in his last two starts against them, giving up a combined two runs over 11.3 innings, but Hammel will have to avoid eing his own worst enemy in order to stage a repeat performance.
Brett Anderson LAD (vs. ARI) – Anderson is just 11.7 frames from setting a new career high, and his 164.0 innings pitched this season are the most that he has thrown (by more than 50 innings) since his rookie season of 2009. He has been safe yet unspectacular this season, as personified by his coming within one out of a baseline quality start in each of his last six contests yet never cracking more than a dozen points at FanDuel (or more than 22 points on DraftKings) in those games. In fact, he has broken through those barriers just twice this season, with back-to-back starts of excellence that book-ended the trade deadline, but his formidable opponent in today’s outing will help to ensure that Anderson stays below those thresholds tonight.
Jon Niese NYM (vs. ATL) – Rostering Niese tonight has eveything to do with the weakness of his opponent, and nothing to do with confidence that the lefty has inspired on his own merit. The Braves have a low .294 wOBA this season, a mark that sinks to .287 versus southpaws and which has registered at just .276 with a 619 OPS over the last seven days. Niese has been a mess recently, giving up a 7.91 ERA over his last half-dozen starts with just 19 strikeouts in 31.7 innings, and his best start in the last five was in his last outing, which was against Atlanta, in which Niese still surrendered nine baserunners and three runs in 6.0 innings with just three punchouts.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at WAS)
Wily Peralta MIL (at CHC)
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. TB)
Jhoulys Chacin ARI (at LAD)
Jered Weaver LAA (at HOU)
John Lamb CIN (at STL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Randy Wolf DET (vs. CHW)
Erik Johnson CHW (at DET)
Adam Warren NYY (at TOR)
A.J. Burnett PIT (at COL)
Jon Gray COL (vs. PIT)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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