Daily Pitcher Breakdown - Thursday, April 7th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There’s an early start today, with only nine games on the slate and just three games starting at 7:00 EST or later, so all players will be listed in standard font.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | PHI | CIN | 286.1 | 4.21 | 3.80 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 8.0% | 0.69 | 2.54 |
| Stephenson | CIN | PHI | |||||||||
| Latos | CWS | OAK | 218.2 | 4.16 | 3.98 | 1.23 | 66.7% | 19.0% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| Graveman | OAK | CWS | 120.1 | 4.04 | 4.32 | 1.40 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 1.12 | 1.82 | |
| Fiers | HOU | NYY | 252 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.15 | 24.7% | 7.8% | 1.11 | 0.84 | |
| Eovaldi | NYY | HOU | 354 | 4.30 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 17.2% | 6.0% | 0.61 | 1.61 |
| Conley | MIA | WAS | 67 | 3.76 | 3.98 | 1.28 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 0.94 | 1.00 | |
| Roark | WAS | MIA | 309.2 | 3.40 | 4.03 | 1.17 | 52.6% | 16.4% | 5.1% | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| Wood | LAD | SFG | 361.1 | 3.34 | 3.70 | 1.25 | 58.3% | 20.7% | 7.0% | 0.77 | 1.56 |
| Peavy | SFG | LAD | 313.1 | 3.68 | 4.18 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 18.2% | 6.8% | 1.01 | 0.89 |
| Kelly | BOS | CLE | 230.2 | 4.57 | 4.27 | 1.40 | 40.0% | 17.6% | 9.1% | 0.90 | 1.83 |
| Salazar | CLE | BOS | 295 | 3.75 | 3.37 | 1.22 | 12.5% | 25.6% | 7.2% | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| Hughes | MIN | BAL | 365 | 3.90 | 3.68 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Jimenez | BAL | MIN | 309.1 | 4.39 | 4.21 | 1.42 | 27.8% | 21.1% | 10.8% | 0.99 | 1.44 |
| Lackey | CHC | ARI | 416 | 3.27 | 3.77 | 1.24 | 57.9% | 19.6% | 5.8% | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | CHC | 290.1 | 4.59 | 4.19 | 1.40 | 57.1% | 17.9% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 1.47 |
| Holland | TEX | LAA | 95.2 | 3.57 | 4.19 | 1.20 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.03 | 1.11 | |
| Santiago | LAA | TEX | 308 | 3.65 | 4.45 | 1.30 | 16.7% | 20.5% | 9.4% | 1.29 | 0.58 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
I guess we could put Danny Salazar here, in a cheese-stands-alone sort of way, but I wouldn’t feel confident going All-in with any pitcher on today’s slate. It’s the natural consequence of being on the fourth day of the first week of the season, in which every team’s rotation has lined up their lesser pitchers for the back half of this week. At first the player pool might look like a crapshoot, as we are going to see a lot pitchers who fall under the “Call” category, but unlike poker, you can’t fold after seeing the flop. I particularly enjoy slates like today’s, in which we are forced to do some dumpster-diving and hope that we find something worth salvaging. I tend to emphasize upside on days that are thin on pitching, and this list will follow the same pattern.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. BOS) – Salazar stands very tall among the pitchers on today’s slate, and he is only pitching this late in the week as the result of circumstance (Monday’s game was rained out) and the incredible talent at the top of the Cleveland rotation. He is the most talented player on the block for today, whose potential strikeout count has a high floor and vaulted ceilings, such that I’m willing to overlook his threatening opponent. Expect Salazar to be massively owned today, and though a high ownership rate is often a deterrent to rostering a player, in this case it might be necessary for a DFS team to secure an upper-echelon score.
John Lackey CHC (at ARI) – Despite residing in the same tier, there is a considerable gap between Lackey and Salazar, larger than the stretch down from Lackey to the top pitcher on the Call board. In some ways, Lackey offers the opposite skill-set, with low degrees of upside but high degrees of reliability and stability on a day with rough waters when crossing the pitcher pool. He allowed three or fewer runs in 29 of his 33 starts last season, with a K count that capped at 10 for any individual game, essentially laying out the blueprint for expectations going into tonight’s tilt with the Diamondbacks.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.302 | 3.66 | 0.297 | 3.60 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.301 | 3.93 | 0.255 | 91.82 | 18.1% |
| Stephenson | 0.207 | 0.567 | |||||||||
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.302 | 4.10 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.289 | 3.69 | 0.249 | 83.43 | 19.0% |
| Graveman | 0.337 | 4.74 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.302 | 4.48 | 0.273 | 75.35 | 15.6% | ||
| Fiers | 0.234 | 2.23 | 0.303 | 3.43 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.268 | 3.74 | 0.219 | 92.53 | 24.7% |
| Eovaldi | 0.336 | 4.30 | 0.297 | 4.15 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.329 | 3.39 | 0.279 | 97.27 | 17.2% |
| Conley | 0.308 | 3.92 | 0.221 | 0.751 | 0.304 | 3.81 | 0.253 | 73.47 | 21.0% | ||
| Roark | 0.299 | 3.33 | 0.279 | 3.07 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.278 | 3.91 | 0.25 | 67.59 | 16.4% |
| Wood | 0.299 | 2.09 | 0.318 | 3.68 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.305 | 3.48 | 0.253 | 83.46 | 20.7% |
| Peavy | 0.334 | 4.45 | 0.316 | 3.26 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.280 | 4.03 | 0.246 | 97.37 | 18.2% |
| Kelly | 0.318 | 3.60 | 0.342 | 5.56 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.301 | 4.26 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 17.6% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.305 | 3.73 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.303 | 3.58 | 0.241 | 98.34 | 25.6% |
| Hughes | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.342 | 4.48 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.315 | 3.52 | 0.276 | 89.85 | 18.6% |
| Jimenez | 0.354 | 5.43 | 0.323 | 3.66 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.301 | 4.28 | 0.249 | 94.14 | 21.1% |
| Lackey | 0.316 | 3.29 | 0.296 | 3.43 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.300 | 3.67 | 0.257 | 96.95 | 19.6% |
| De La Rosa | 0.364 | 4.25 | 0.294 | 3.36 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.302 | 4.64 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 17.9% |
| Holland | 0.325 | 3.32 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.287 | 4.10 | 0.256 | 92.56 | 16.9% | ||
| Santiago | 0.274 | 2.34 | 0.324 | 4.18 | 0.240 | 0.700 | 0.267 | 4.57 | 0.233 | 86.27 | 20.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Joe Kelly BOS (at CLE) – Kelly has reportedly looked strong this spring and he had the numbers to back it up: a 2.63 ERA in 24.0 innings, with 22 strikeouts and eight walks. Spring numbers don’t mean much, but I do look at walks and strikeouts to get a loose indicator of how a pitcher’s stuff and control are progressing, and Kelly’s ratios were solid in a relatively robust sample. Cleveland has a suspect offense, especially with Michael Brantley out of action, and on a thin slate Kelly offers a rare combination of upside and intrigue; He has long had modest K numbers despite sitting mid-90s with great movement on his sinker. Kelly is the second-cheapest option on DraftKings, making him an intriguing option that will allow for a heavy investment in offense.
Mike Fiers HOU (at NYY) – Fiers is a captain of true outcomes, as 35-percent of the batters that he has faced in his career have ended the plate appearance with a walk, a home run, or a strikeout. The potential K count is the lure, ranking higher than the bevy of pitchers ranked behind him on the list, but Fiers pays for his frequent mistakes. The upside gives him a boost up my board, but rostering Fiers will require no fewer than two antacid tablets.
Jake Peavy SF (vs. LAD) – He may have transformed from a strikeout machine to a guy who induces weak contact and minimizes the walks, but batters still struggle to hit Peavy’s fastball-slider combination, who has given up just 7.8 H/9 since arriving to San Francisco in mid-2014. He offers a similar package as Lackey, with veteran stability but a low ceiling, though the stability portion is not nearly as strong and a lineup like the Dodgers could expose his weaknesses, bringing down his stat-line like a Jenga tower.
Nate Eovaldi NYY (vs. HOU) – Eovaldi has tremendous upside, at least in theory, due to the facts that he throws so incredibly hard, that he does so consistently, that he does it from different arm slots, and that he has a pretty decent breaking ball to use as a weapon with two strikes. His lack of an effective offspeed pitch is at least part of the problem, bringing up the question of whether his eventual destination is in the rotation or the bullpen. Not that the Yankees need more power arms in their ‘pen, but I could see Captain Eo blending right in as the sixth-inning guy – baseball’s headed there anyways, so might as well get a head start. Eovaldi is arguably one of the most talented pitchers on this list, but his performance just hasn’t matched the stuff and today he faces a Houston lineup that is fully loaded and has been playing out of its mind.
Derek Holland TEX (at LAA) – He has pitched less than 100 innings combined over the last two seasons, and though he brings mid-90s heat and a four-pitch mix to the table, opposing batters have had little trouble in squaring up everything that Holland has to offer. He missed most of last season recovering from injury, so it raised some eyebrows when he threw a three-hit shutout against the Orioles on August 30, with 11 strikeouts and no walks. However, that game was a complete aberration – in his other 14 starts over the past two seasons, Holland topped out at six strikeouts in any single ballgame.
Alex Wood LAD (at SF) – I promise to refrain from making fun of Wood’s Tazmanian delivery within this commentary. Wood is yet another southpaw in a long line of left-handed starters for the Dodgers, and he earns the benefit of pitching tonight in MLB’s most homer-squelching ballpark. He has kept the ball in the yard for much of his career to date, so the Giants will probably have to string together some hits to dent the scoreboard. He is a low-strikeout pitcher who’s success is vulnerable to the fate on balls in play, a factor which opens up the realm of possible outcomes.
Phil Hughes MIN (at BAL) – Hughes was doomed to regress last season, following a 2014 campaign that included an impossibly-low walk rate and for the first time in his career, a below-average rate of home runs allowed. But in 2015 the homers came back, he walked a few extra guys, he lost a couple ticks of velocity and he gave up more than a hit per inning for the fifth consecutive season. He’ll look to bounce back in a big way this season, but he starts with a very tough assignment, facing the big-hitting Orioles in the homer-friendly confines of Camden Yards. Considering the question marks surrounding his opponent on the mound, it could be a high-scoring game today in Baltimore. Stack accordingly.
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. TEX)
Rubby de la Rosa ARI (vs. CHC)
Robert Stephenson CIN (vs. PHI)
Adam Conley FLA (at WAS)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. MIN) – Possibly the most volatile pitcher in Major League Baseball, Jimenez started last year on a tear, and in fact his first start of 2015 was also his best of the campaign, but it all went downhill from there. Jimenez has erratic mechanics, resulting in a release point that is all over the place, and the delivery is such an imbalanced mess that it interferes with his ability to hit targets. He shows occasional flashes of getting it, but even at his best the mechanical baselines are atrocious. His career-low walk rate of 3.3 BB/9 last season was still well above league average.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. FLA) – With such an alarmingly-low strikeout rate (6.1 K/9), he walks a very fine line and needs to be perfect in order to have a good day on a DFS roster. He doesn’t walk many batters (career 1.9 BB/9), so his success lives and dies by contact. The lazy analysis would be that he is likely to finish somewhere between the 2.85 ERA of 2014 and the 4.38 ERA of last year, but I would caution pretty far toward the bad side of that coin, and I see little value in securing his services just to cross fingers that Roark maintains a clean scoreboard.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mat Latos CHW (at OAK) – Latos was awful this spring, and is a true boom or bust candidate as we head out of the starting gates on the 2016 season. Personally, I won’t be touching him with a ten-foot pole, as Latos is the ultimate example of a “wait and see” pitcher that I will not trust in my roster until I’ve seen him pitch. He has been a very different pitcher in each of the last few seasons, making huge adjustments to his delivery while his fastball velocity has ridden a roller coaster. He might have been compensating for an injury (that’s how it looked in ’14), but there is also little indication that he is perfectly healthy. I am very curious to see what he brings to the table, but I’m not putting any money on the outcome. The A’s don’t offer much to stack against Latos, and to be honest this Fold has more to do with my reluctance to play him (for fear of his sinking the ship) than seizing a stacking opportunity – I could see the White Sox having a quick hook with Latos, making it a bullpen game.
Charlie Morton PHI (at CIN)
Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. CHW)