Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, July 28th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-29 02:33:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Anderson	COL	NYM	48	3.56	3.51	1.29		20.3%	5.0%	0.75	2.48
Degrom	NYM	COL	296.2	2.61	3.18	1.02	50.0%	26.2%	5.3%	0.79	1.38
Ray	ARI	MIL	237	3.99	3.85	1.41	33.3%	24.2%	8.9%	0.87	1.33
Davies	MIL	ARI	133	3.65	4.19	1.19		19.2%	7.6%	0.95	1.67
Nola	PHI	ATL	183.2	4.26	3.39	1.24		23.8%	5.8%	1.03	1.84
Wisler	ATL	PHI	226	4.82	4.79	1.38		16.3%	7.6%	1.39	0.84
Wacha	STL	MIA	296.2	3.76	4.10	1.30	53.3%	20.1%	7.7%	0.91	1.48
Fernandez	MIA	STL	185.1	2.67	2.61	1.07	75.0%	34.3%	6.6%	0.58	1.33
Gibson	MIN	BAL	266	4.06	4.22	1.32	52.6%	17.4%	8.0%	0.88	1.96
Sale	CWS	CHC	341.2	3.32	2.91	1.06	64.3%	29.2%	5.1%	1.05	1.16
Lackey	CHC	CWS	348.2	3.15	3.85	1.17	57.9%	21.7%	6.5%	0.98	1.25
Ventura	KCR	TEX	269.2	4.44	4.13	1.34	44.4%	20.4%	8.9%	0.93	1.72
Hamels	TEX	KCR	337.2	3.36	3.71	1.22	58.8%	23.7%	7.9%	1.01	1.52
Price	BOS	LAA	356	3.24	3.32	1.15	52.4%	25.3%	5.3%	0.83	1.22
Weaver	LAA	BOS	270.2	4.92	5.14	1.32	52.4%	13.1%	5.6%	1.56	0.68
Roark	WAS	SFG	240.2	3.66	4.04	1.23	52.6%	18.1%	6.4%	0.97	1.71
Cueto	SFG	WAS	354.1	3.07	3.70	1.09	76.2%	21.3%	5.2%	0.74	1.40

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. STL) – THe strikeouts are getting ridiculous. Fern’s seven strikeouts across 7.0 innings actually brought down his K rate, which now stands at a major-league-leading 13.1 K/9. He has struck out 11 or more batters in seven of his 19 starts this season and has allowed more than two runs in just five games. He has also cut down on the free passes since early in the season, as Fern has a 106:12 K:BB over his last 73 innings pitched, an 11-start stretch that includes a 2.10 ERA to go with his 1.5 BB/9. The Cardinals pose a more intimidating threat than most opponents, but Fern is the rare pitcher with whom the opponent hardly matters, as the only thing that can get in his way is himself – consider that his worst start of the season (nine runs allowed over 5.2 frames) came against the lowly Braves.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (at CHC) – Sale had endured a pair of rocky starts prior to his last game, but he blanked the Mariners on just one hit over 8.0 innings to get back on track. The game prior involved eight earned runs and 13 baserunners in five innings against the Braves – how does a lineup as weak as the Braves’ keep ousting top pitchers? – his worst game of the season. Sale hasn’t hit double-digit strikeouts in a game yet but has maintained a healthy K-per-inning pace for most of the season and has whiffed nine batters four different times this season. When he’s on, Sale can shut down any offense – as the Red Sox learned a month ago – but his propensity to go on tilt can be exploited by even lesser teams. He won’t have the luxury of getting away with many mistakes tonight against the crosstown Cubs.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. WAS) – From May to June 21, Cueto ripped off a nine-game stretch in which no more than two runs crossed the plate in any game, culminating in a 1.08 ERA and 55:14 K:BB over 67.0 innings. That streak was bookended by a pair of six-run outings, of which he actually has three this year, and in July Cueto has been playing hopscotch between shutdown starts and rougher outings. He has given up just eight homers on the year, but his first two multi-homer games of the campaign came earlier in July and if the back-and-forth trend continues then he will be staring down the barrel of another non-quality start in tonight’s game against the Nationals. Cueto goes deep into ballgames, averaging more than seven innings per start this season and leading the majors with four complete games (he is the hurler with four), a trait that is very desirable from a DFS standpoint of compiling stats.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. COL) – DeGrom is a standout in most categories, including ERA (2.73) and walk rate (2.0 BB/9), but his K-per-inning has been heavily influenced by a three-start stretch in early June in which DeGrom struck out 28 batters over 19.0 innings. Outside of those games, he hasn’t struck out more than seven batters in any ballgame and has posted a more pedestrian strikeout rate of 7.8 K/9. He is coming off his worst outing of the season in terms of duration (just 3.2 innings) in addition to runs and hits allowed (five runs on 10 hits, both season highs); oddly, the game followed his best start of the year, a one-hit, one-walk shutout of the Phillies with seven strikeouts.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. KC) – He had a couple of hiccups against the Twins in consecutive starts, but otherwise Hamels has been a master of run prevention. The other eight of his last ten starts have been Grade-A quality, with a 1.15 ERA in those eight games, though his K and walk rate were still unimpressive. The Royals are a high-contact ballclub that could lead Hamels to a long outing if the ball bounces his way. He has a solid chance at continuing his home run suppression, though, as Hamels has given up just one home run over his last seven starts (42.1 innings) and the Royals have an AL-low 85 homers this season, the second-lowest total in the majors.

David Price BOS (at LAA) – There are a ton of Raise-worthy options today – which makes sense, given the light fare offered on the last couple days – and though his ERA of 4.51 tells a different story, I consider Price to be a player with raising the stakes. His peripherals don’t match the results on contact, as his 9.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 has generated a FIP of 3.35, and though that number is inflated by his 1.1 HR/9 (highest since his rookie season), FIP also excuses his career high 9.6 H/9 allowed this season. The preference between Price and Hamels likely comes down to the style of tournament, as Price has the higher upside but also the higher rate of implosion (read: large tournaments) whereas Hamels is the relatively safe option (read: cash games). In his last six starts, Price has had three 10-K games, two 1-K games and another with just four strikeouts. Roll the dice and cover your eyes.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Anderson	0.298	1.59	0.322	4.17	0.243	0.723	0.329	3.20	0.272	0.03	20.3%
Degrom	0.275	2.89	0.245	2.31	0.271	0.780	0.277	2.87	0.217	0.01	26.2%
Ray	0.314	3.52	0.334	4.16	0.240	0.699	0.334	3.62	0.261	0.01	24.2%
Davies	0.310	2.76	0.284	4.44	0.263	0.736	0.271	3.96	0.235	0.01	19.2%
Nola	0.320	4.56	0.289	4.05	0.249	0.674	0.311	3.47	0.252	0.01	23.8%
Wisler	0.379	5.60	0.290	4.11	0.243	0.684	0.291	4.82	0.266	0.00	16.3%
Wacha	0.289	3.40	0.320	4.04	0.261	0.701	0.295	3.79	0.249	0.00	20.1%
Fernandez	0.315	3.16	0.210	2.25	0.262	0.760	0.329	2.13	0.219	0.01	34.3%
Jimenez	0.343	5.56	0.341	4.68	0.244	0.702	0.333	4.28	0.276	0.00	20.2%
Gibson	0.314	4.43	0.301	3.67	0.262	0.771	0.290	4.05	0.252	0.00	17.4%
Sale	0.274	3.17	0.282	3.35	0.250	0.746	0.296	3.11	0.225	0.01	29.2%
Lackey	0.315	3.11	0.276	3.18	0.250	0.701	0.285	3.68	0.239	0.00	21.7%
Ventura	0.323	5.24	0.303	3.63	0.259	0.743	0.297	4.03	0.248	0.00	20.4%
Hamels	0.272	2.04	0.305	3.73	0.273	0.736	0.289	3.77	0.235	0.00	23.7%
Price	0.302	2.83	0.286	3.37	0.247	0.707	0.309	3.00	0.242	0.00	25.3%
Weaver	0.339	4.50	0.349	5.31	0.273	0.775	0.283	5.16	0.274	0.00	13.1%
Roark	0.312	3.04	0.301	4.22	0.265	0.739	0.291	3.99	0.254	0.00	18.1%
Cueto	0.270	2.51	0.291	3.56	0.246	0.721	0.281	3.23	0.233	0.00	21.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

John Lackey CHC (vs. CHW) – From the start of May until late June, Lackey rode a 10-game streak of quality starts with a sub-2.00 ERA and a strikeout per inning. In the six starts since, :Lackey has been rocked to the tune of a 6.38 ERA and eight homers in 36.2 innings pitched. He has stood strong amidst the carnage, pitching 6.0 or more innings in five of the six starts despite the high counts of runs against. He’s been very giving to the longball, with at least one homer allowed in seven straight starts and ten total bombs surrendered in that stretch.

Tanner Roark WAS (at SF) – Roark’s K rate has exploded this season, yet it’s still below average at 7.6 K/9. The walks are also up, creeping close to league-average after three years in the range of 2.0 BB/9, and the net result is that his success this season largely boils down to home runs; Roark coughed up 1.4 HR/9 last season, but has cut that rate by more than half with just 0.6 HR/9 allowed this season.

Michael Wacha STL (at MIA) – Wacha is the ultimate middling option, the type of pitcher whose only utility is as an SP2 in cash games on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings. He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, keeps the walks down and – outside of a bad stretch of May – limits the runs allowed to quality-start territory. He hasn’t had a scoreless outing since his second start of the year, peaked at nine strikeouts in one game back in April, and is three starts removed from his first three-homer game of the season.

Aaron Nola PHI (at ATL) – Nola is suffering from the same mismatch between peripherals and run prevention that is plaguing Price this season. Nola has a K/BB ratio of 4.5 and nearly 10 K/9, fueling a fip that is 1.70 runs lower than his 4.75 ERA. Thing is, Nola’s results on contact have gone haywire, as his ERA is a ridiculous 10.61 over his last seven starts with 46 hits allowed in 28.0 innings. He’s allowed four or more runs in six of those seven starts, but the outlier was six scoreless innings against the Marlins in his first start after the break, a with two hits and one walk allowed. The Braves have destroyed better pitchers this season.

Robbie Ray ARI (at MIL)

Yordano Ventura KC (at TEX)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. ARI)

Tyler Anderson COL (at NYM)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. PHI)