Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, September 22nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-23 01:28:37

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Price	BOS	BAL	432	3.17	3.37	1.13	52.4%	25.1%	5.2%	0.88	1.22
Tillman	BAL	BOS	337.2	4.37	4.61	1.31	42.9%	18.0%	8.7%	1.04	1.16
Collmenter	ATL	MIA	148.1	3.94	4.62	1.29	29.4%	14.2%	6.2%	1.46	0.92
Urena	MIA	ATL	137.1	5.44	4.91	1.48		13.3%	8.4%	0.85	1.56
Vargas	KCR	CLE	46	3.91	4.79	1.33	68.4%	14.3%	6.6%	0.98	1.02
Clevinger	CLE	KCR	45.1	4.76	4.75	1.41		21.8%	12.7%	1.19	1.00
Cessa	NYY	TBR	52.2	4.44	4.58	1.12		14.8%	5.1%	2.39	1.14
Snell	TBR	NYY	81.1	3.87	4.60	1.65		23.9%	12.7%	0.55	1.01
Lugo	NYM	PHI	53.2	2.35	4.44	1.04		18.1%	7.4%	0.67	1.20
Verlander	DET	MIN	340.1	3.28	3.71	1.04	35.0%	24.7%	6.3%	1.08	0.72
Santana	MIN	DET	278.1	3.62	4.35	1.25	38.9%	19.0%	7.3%	0.97	1.15
Nolasco	LAA	HOU	220	5.11	4.34	1.35	16.7%	18.1%	5.9%	1.19	1.14
Fiers	HOU	LAA	337.2	4.05	4.10	1.30		20.9%	7.2%	1.31	1.06
Vogelsong	PIT	MIL	203.1	4.74	4.71	1.47	52.6%	17.3%	9.8%	1.20	1.22
Anderson	MIL	PIT	293.2	4.38	4.47	1.33	40.0%	18.0%	7.3%	1.35	1.05
Chatwood	COL	LAD	144	4.13	4.70	1.41	25.0%	16.7%	10.4%	0.88	2.23
Anderson	LAD	COL	184.1	4.15	3.55	1.39	20.0%	15.1%	6.3%	1.03	3.57
Samardzija	SFG	SDP	404.1	4.50	4.25	1.26	60.0%	18.3%	6.0%	1.18	1.15
Friedrich	SDP	SFG	175	4.94	4.62	1.54		17.3%	9.3%	0.93	1.35

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Justin Verlander DET (at MIN) – Verlander typically falls short of the top tier on our rankings, but perhaps that’s my problem, not his. Consider what the resurgent ace has done: he has fired 13 quality starts in his last 15 turns, with a composite ERA of just 2.11 for his last 15 starts and 102.1 innings pitched, with an incredible K:BB of 116:25 over that stretch. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a game since his eight-run disaster against the Indians at the end of June, and he has kept the opposing run tally at two or fewer runs on his watch in 13 of his 15 turns. Verlander combined a high floor with a high ceiling, essentially defining the requirements for an All-In pitcher, and his soft opponent induces little worry that he’ll get the job done once again in tonight’s game.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

David Price BOS (at BAL) – Facing the Orioles in Baltimore is always a tall order, but the lineup’s relative weakness against southpaws plays into Price’s favor tonight in a key divisional matchup. Price has faced the Orioles four times already this season, putting up a combined 3.67 ERA and shiny 32:2 K:BB in 27.0 total innings of work. He’s also given up six home runs to the O’s, exemplifying the risk/reward of playing left-handers against the Orioles. The southpaw is on an interesting run, with multiple runs given up yet 6.0 or more innings pitched in each of his last five starts, though he kept the damage to two runs apiece in the first four before the Yankees ripped Price for five run on nine hits in six innings. Price didn’t walk anyone in the game, extending his streak to 22.1 innings pitched without giving away a free pass, a stretch that includes 25 strikeouts.

Ervin Santana MIN (vs. DET) – There’s a massive gap between Price and Santana in terms of expected value, but it seemed silly to have a single pitcher in each of the All-In and Raise sections before dumping the rest of the pitcher pool onto the Call list. Santana benefits by jumping a value tier, but part of that gain is an acknowledgment of his strong season. What Santana has done is minimize the damage: he has walked two or fewer hitters in 22 of his 26 starts, has only given up multiple home runs in two of his turns, and he even occasionally spikes a hefty count of strikeouts. For evidence, one need look no further than his last start, in which Santana blanked the Mets over 7.0 frames, striking out nine batters against six base runners along the way. He calmed the Tigers in Detroit the start prior, but the right-hander lasted just 5.0 innings and finished with a quiet statline.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at SD) – I thought we had seen the first and last of the Shark swimming in Raise waters, but tonight’s slate is extremely thin at the top and he gets the ultimate context in facing the free-swinging Padres in the run-suppressing environment of Petco Park. Facing the Padres wasn’t easy when he took them on two starts ago, with the Friars plating four runs on eight hits and a walk over 6.0 innings, and the six strikeouts were not enough to save Samardzija’s fantasy line. Once known as a strikeout pitcher, the right-hander has punched out a half-dozen hitters or fewer in 18 of his last 20 starts, with a combined K:BB of 85:37 over those past 119.1 innings, so the onus is on his run prevention to carry the day. Luckily, his context is as favorable as it gets tonight.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Price	0.298	2.87	0.282	3.26	0.237	0.676	0.300	3.06	0.238	104.92	25.1%
Tillman	0.308	3.63	0.335	5.05	0.275	0.780	0.284	4.33	0.249	97.02	18.0%
Collmenter	0.323	3.44	0.351	4.40	0.261	0.700	0.280	4.88	0.267	40.00	14.2%
Urena	0.351	5.86	0.321	5.05	0.257	0.699	0.306	4.50	0.277	0.00	13.3%
Vargas	0.337	6.00	0.306	3.18	0.268	0.744	0.289	4.24	0.264	73.90	14.3%
Clevinger	0.242	3.27	0.374	6.17	0.261	0.716	0.268	4.62	0.227	0.00	21.8%
Cessa	0.316	4.50	0.334	4.40	0.245	0.721	0.218	6.18	0.238	56.93	14.8%
Snell	0.288	2.50	0.341	4.26	0.255	0.730	0.358	3.51	0.27	93.29	23.9%
Morgan	0.285	3.40	0.370	5.55	0.247	0.738	0.302	4.94	0.282	0.00	16.3%
Lugo	0.287	2.86	0.253	1.99	0.241	0.685	0.235	3.77	0.204	0.01	18.1%
Verlander	0.269	2.90	0.283	3.67	0.247	0.717	0.258	3.57	0.213	107.61	24.7%
Santana	0.313	3.76	0.297	3.48	0.267	0.746	0.286	3.95	0.247	98.44	19.0%
Nolasco	0.314	4.24	0.348	5.90	0.249	0.746	0.314	4.14	0.276	0.00	18.1%
Fiers	0.303	3.68	0.342	4.37	0.256	0.720	0.296	4.28	0.255	93.67	20.9%
Vogelsong	0.383	6.80	0.310	3.18	0.250	0.714	0.293	4.71	0.26	0.00	17.3%
Anderson	0.312	3.97	0.355	4.73	0.259	0.728	0.294	4.60	0.264	87.86	18.0%
Chatwood	0.330	4.73	0.314	3.52	0.253	0.748	0.289	4.41	0.253	93.68	16.7%
Anderson	0.323	3.48	0.332	4.43	0.261	0.725	0.318	4.18	0.287	85.00	15.1%
Samardzija	0.349	5.44	0.290	3.62	0.237	0.682	0.292	4.16	0.258	102.11	18.3%
Friedrich	0.286	4.21	0.352	5.29	0.263	0.718	0.321	4.22	0.276	0.00	17.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Blake Snell TB (vs. NYY) – When you combine inefficient pitch counts with the lack of pitch command to reign them in and an organizational desire to limit a young pitcher’s workload, you get a five-inning starter who struggles to keep his fantasy statline above water. Snell has walked an obscene frequency of hitters this year, checking in at 5.2 BB/9 (12.7 percent), and though his K rate is impressive at 97. K/9 (23.9 percent), it doesn’t offset the high rate of free passes. The Rays have been extremely cautious with the young southpaw’s workload, holding him to 90 pitches or fewer in three of his last four starts and allowing him to surpass the century mark just once in his last eight starts. As a result, he has finished the fifth inning in just three of those eight games and has completed the sixth frame just once over that stretch, watching his ERA balloon by almost a full run in the process. That wouldn’t typically result in a placement at the top of the call list, but it’s an atypical slate and Snell offers the theoretical upside to warrant consideration.

Luis Cessa NYY (at TB) – Cessa has survived his pitch-to-contact approach thus far, offering a soft K rate and few walks in the hopes of keeping his pitch count within reason and chewing up some innings, but the Yankees have been extra cautious with his workload and Cessa’s ultimate fantasy line will be determined largely by the vagaries of balls in play. His K:BB is just 32:11 in 52.2 innings this season, low numbers in each category, and batters have had no trouble in handling his copious amounts of pitches that cross the plate, contributing to the nine homers that he’s given up over the past five games. The Yanks have kept his pitch count under 90 throws in each of his three starts this month, and the total number of throws has gone down for four straight contests. Expect him to throw more than the 64 pitches of last game but with a hard cap at six innings pitched in the contest.

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. BOS) – Tillman is a far better pitcher this season than the two men above him on this list, but his formidable opponent effectively knocks him down the value list despite the fact that his workloads have been untarnished since his return from the disabled list, having thrown 105 or more pitches in each of his two games since returning to the Baltimore rotation. He actually shut the Red Sox down the last time that Tillman faced them, spinning seven frames of one-run ball on five hits and one walk, with seven strikeouts in the game, though that was back in mid-June. Surprisingly, that’s the only time that Tillman has faced the division rivals from Boston, and though his contact-heavy profile is dangerous in Camden Yards, that approach has delivered a 16-6 record for Tillman so far this year.

Tyler Chatwood COL (at LAD) – Chatwood is coming off a horrific start, with seven runs scoring on eight hits against the low-scoring Padres, though his high-altitude home certainly lends an asterisk to that performance. He has coughed up six runs or more in three of his last four games, two of which occurred in Denver, and confidence is wavering for a pitcher whose only clean start over that stretch came against the Padres in Petco Park. Aside from a hiccup in Philly a few tarts ago, Chatwood has been ridiculously effective on the road for the Rockies this season, with an incredible 1.77 ERA in 11 away starts despite a pathetic K:BB ratio of 47:30 over 66.0 innings when pitching closer to sea level.

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (at MIL) – Facing Milwaukee is enough of a reason to roster nearly any pitcher due to the expected rise in strikeouts when facing baseball’s most K-prone offense, but Vogelsong has been a mess recently, and his line will be dictated more by his own ability to get back on track than by the Brewers’ penchant for empty swings.Vogey has given up five or more runs in each of his last four starts, never making it past 5.0 innings pitched and carrying a feeble K:BB of 9:9 in 17.2 innings over that stretch. He kept the runs count under five tallies while recording 5.2 or more innings in each of his previous five starts, and though his first two rough starts came against the robust NL Central offenses of the Cubs and Cardinals, the past two games have each come against the less impressive bats of Cincy, further indicating that the poor performance has more to do with Vogelsong than his opponents.

Seth Lugo NYM (vs. PHI)

Mike Clevinger CLE (vs. KC)

Ricky Nolasco LAA (at HOU)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. LAA)

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. PIT)

Josh Collmenter ATL (at MIA)

Jose Urena MIA (vs. ATL)

Christian Friedrich SD (vs. SF)