Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 4th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
The price next to each player’s name is the cost on DraftKings, and this cost was taken into consideration when determining where pitchers fit into the tiers.
All-In
Jake Arrieta CHC (at STL), [$10,400] – Say hello to the best no.2 starter in the game. The All-in section might be a bit barren over the next couple days as team’s get deeper into their respective rotations, and the juggling schedule will likely mix up the quality of pitching options by mid-April, but for Day 3 of the regular season Arrieta is the top option by a decent margin. The walk rate spiked last season but the historic Cubbie defense helped him to the majors’ lowest hit rate for the second straight season. He has the stuff to miss bats and amassed double-digit strikeout totals in four of his 31 starts last season. If the walk rate sinks closer to previous seasons, Arrieta could once again vault himself to All-In status on a regular basis.
Raise
Johnny Cueto SF (at ARI), [$10,200] – Cueto is one of the most entertaining pitchers to watch, with a delivery that morphs throughout the game, ranging from a Luis Tiant-style twist of the upper body that turns his letters to the hitter to various pauses, head-fakes ands quick-pitches – he’ll do just about anything to throw a hitter out of sync. Despite all of these inconsistencies, Cueto has been very stingy with walks for most of his career, giving away fewer than 2.5 BB/9 each of the last three seasons and not walking more than 3.0 BB/9 in seven years. He makes up for a modest K-rate by inducing weak contact, resulting in an ERA of 2.82 or under in five of the past six seasons. Cueto has historically been an underappreciated commodity whose consistency was perhaps his greatest virtue, and whenever he pitches in ATT Park the right-hander receives a boost in ranking, but it’s worth noting that his ERA on the road last season (2.78) was essentially identical to what it was at home (2.79). Arizona is a particularly unforgiving venue, but he did post a 24:4 K:BB in 21.0 innings at Chase Field last season to go along with a good-not-great 3.43 ERA.
Lance McCullers HOU (vs. SEA), [$9,500] – McCullers shortened his arm path in the offseason, and any time that a pitcher messes with his arm action there is likely to be an adjustment period while he finds his release point. That typically means more walks, an issue which McCullers can ill afford to contend with, but the good news is that the early returns on his new delivery are excellent. It’s conceivable that McCullers will have an easier time repeating his new motion, precipitating the reduction in walk rate that fantasy owners have been anxiously awaiting. That said, he is likely to be especially volatile in the early going, so this is a risk/reward selection whose price tag will scare off all but the most adventurous of gamers. Given the upside in strikeouts and the likelihood of a low ownership percentage, McCullers makes for a sneaky play that might provide a strong return on investment in large tournaments.
Kenta Maeda LAD (vs. SD), [$9,600] – Maeda gets the Padres bump today, rising a couple notches on the ranking sheet thanks to a low-scoring opponent that was a veritable wind machine of empty swings last season. He struck out more than a batter per inning last season, a rate that was far higher than anything that he posted in Japan, leaving one to wonder whether his game just translates better to the majors, whether he made an adjustment that precipitate the spike in K-rate, or whether he is due for some hefty regression in that category in 2017. Unfortunately, we won’t likely get any answers to those questions against the Padres, who can make most pitchers look like Sandy Koufax, if just for a day.
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. LAA), [$7,400] – Say hello to your blue-light special for today. Manaea is priced like a back-end starter but has displayed the performance and development to warrant much more, and the fact that he’s facing the Angels only further boosts his value. Over his final 14 games (13 starts) of last season, Manaea posted a 2.44 ERA and 75:17 K:BB in 84.2 innings, including a .218 batting average against and a low .256 BABiP. The latter numbers is likely to regress upward, but that regression might take the day off against an Angels team that had the fourth-lowest OPS in the American League last season. He was a bit wild in the spring, walking 10 batters across 23.0 frames, but such things are expected as a pitcher rounds into shape for the regular season.
Call
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at TEX), [$8,800] – Carrasco has endured a rough spring, giving up more than a run per inning and battling some injury concerns. Combined with facing a tough Rangers offense in the Bandbox at Arlington, there are enough warning flags to drop his stock for Carrasco’s first start of the season. The 13:4 K:BB in 15.0 innings of work was fine, but the 27 hits allowed were more than a bit concerning this spring, and the seven home runs that he gave up were nothing short of concerning. Between the high-scoring context and the Indians being potentially cautious with his health, there’s a definite lean towards a shorter outing for Carrasco, making it difficult for him to earn his salary. He has Raise talent but fits into the Call section of today’s slate due to the opponent, the venue and the likelihood of a truncated appearance. Tread carefully.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. NYY), [$7,800] – Odorizzi has been a bit homer-prone throughout his major-league career, and last season’s 1.4 HR/9 was the worst frequency yet for the 27-year-old. He posted a solid 3.69 ERA despite the high frequency of baseballs leaving the yard, buoyed by a strong K/BB of 3.07 that was right in line with previous seasons. He has the benefit of playing today’s game in Tropicana Field, a tougher venue to hit homers than Yankee Stadium, giving Odorizzi an extra push up the boards. The key will be keeping free runners off the bases so that potential homers are of the solo variety rather than those that put crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at OAK), [$8,400] – Health has been the biggest issue for Shoemaker thus far in his career, an issue that matters more to seasonal fantasy leagues than for the DFS game. That said, his run prevention has never been as strong as his peripherals might suggest, as an ultra-low walk rate and solid K-rate have been offset by high frequencies of hits throughout his career. The offense of the A’s doesn’t pose a significant challenge for Shoemaker, and if his split is working then he could have a shiny stat-line when all is said and done, but the downsides make him a risky investment at the DraftKings price of $8400.
Adam Wainwright STL (vs. CHC), [$7,300] – I am aboard the Wainwright train for this season, expecting him to rebound from 2016’s atrocious performance and post solid numbers in the ERA and WHIP categories, though the K count is likely to leave something to be desired. The issues are plentiful though, from an uneven track record in the spring (including a ghastly 10-run performance) to the need to make adjustments from last season, and that’s before getting to his formidable opponent, a Cubs team that was second in the National League in scoring last season and went on to win the World Series. The price tag is reasonable but the context is too risky, as even the optimistic among us should wait to see how Waino looks in his first start of the year.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at HOU), [$7,700] – I just don’t like this situation. Hopefully, Iwakuma has gotten past some of the shoulder issues that plagued him last season, but shoulder problems tend to linger and he is getting to an age (age-36 season) where a slip in performance is to be expected. The biggest issue with rostering Iwakuma today is his opponent, an Astros club that figures to have one of the AL’s most dangerous offenses in 2017. Houston had the fourth-most batter strikeouts last season, but that was a step down from 2015 and the whittling figures to continue this year. Strikeouts aren’t really Iwakuma’s game, but without the buffer of a high expected K-count his prospects for a strong showing go out the window. He’s another wait-and-see case whose opponent and price tag put him in a forgettable bin of starting pitchers.
Tyler Anderson COL (at MIL), [$5,900]
Zach Davies MIL (vs. COL), [$6,500]
C.C. Sabathia NYY (at TB), [$6,900]
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. SF), [$5,000]
Fold
Martin Perez TEX (vs. CLE), [$5700]
Clayton Richard SD (at LAD), [$5200] – We can pretty much pencil in any Padres starter in the Fold section on any given day this season. It’s the worst starting rotation that I’ve seen in a long time. Things didn’t start well for team “ace” Jhoulys Chacin, and we can expect more of the same from Richard.