Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 2nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
Editor’s Note: Michael Wacha has been scratched from today’s start. Tyler Lyons will start in his place.
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conley | MIA | ATL | 32.2 | 4.96 | 4.10 | 1.44 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 1.38 | 1.11 | |
| Perez | ATL | MIA | 81 | 5.56 | 5.14 | 1.60 | 14.3% | 11.5% | 1.00 | 1.54 | |
| Iglesias | CIN | CHC | 80.1 | 3.92 | 3.23 | 1.12 | 26.2% | 6.9% | 0.90 | 1.39 | |
| Hammel | CHC | CIN | 318.1 | 3.45 | 3.43 | 1.12 | 47.4% | 23.3% | 5.9% | 1.19 | 1.00 |
| Heaney | LAA | OAK | 101.2 | 3.90 | 4.12 | 1.19 | 25.0% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| Gray | OAK | LAA | 400.2 | 2.65 | 3.55 | 1.10 | 60.0% | 20.7% | 7.5% | 0.63 | 1.99 |
| Tanaka | NYY | BOS | 258 | 3.17 | 3.00 | 1.04 | 66.7% | 24.4% | 4.4% | 1.22 | 1.50 |
| Owens | BOS | NYY | 29 | 4.03 | 4.25 | 1.31 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 1.24 | 0.60 | |
| Ramirez | TBR | BAL | 202.2 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 1.29 | 27.3% | 18.0% | 8.2% | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| Gausman | BAL | TBR | 193.1 | 3.91 | 3.93 | 1.25 | 37.5% | 19.4% | 6.9% | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| Bauer | CLE | TOR | 309.2 | 4.24 | 4.01 | 1.33 | 38.5% | 22.4% | 9.6% | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Dickey | TOR | CLE | 389.1 | 3.95 | 4.40 | 1.26 | 47.6% | 17.0% | 8.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Nola | PHI | NYM | 49.2 | 3.26 | 3.93 | 1.07 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 1.09 | 1.34 | |
| Harvey | NYM | PHI | 160 | 2.48 | 3.36 | 0.99 | 23.7% | 5.2% | 0.96 | 1.25 | |
| Wolf | DET | KCR | 39.2 | 4.31 | 3.91 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 4.8% | 0.91 | 1.13 |
| Ventura | KCR | DET | 303.1 | 3.68 | 3.86 | 1.29 | 44.4% | 20.7% | 8.6% | 0.77 | 1.58 |
| Rodon | CHW | MIN | 112.2 | 4.15 | 4.09 | 1.51 | 24.0% | 12.3% | 0.80 | 1.75 | |
| Milone | MIN | CHW | 216 | 4.04 | 4.51 | 1.34 | 43.8% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 1.33 | 1.04 |
| Locke | PIT | MIL | 272.2 | 4.19 | 4.16 | 1.35 | 66.7% | 16.7% | 7.9% | 0.99 | 1.85 |
| Davies | MIL | PIT | |||||||||
| Walker | SEA | HOU | 191 | 4.15 | 3.67 | 1.23 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 1.13 | 1.10 | |
| Kazmir | HOU | SEA | 344.1 | 3.06 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 63.2% | 21.5% | 7.0% | 0.73 | 1.21 |
| Scherzer | WAS | STL | 398.1 | 3.03 | 2.84 | 1.06 | 60.0% | 28.7% | 5.5% | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| Wacha | STL | WAS | 264.1 | 2.89 | 3.76 | 1.15 | 53.3% | 20.8% | 6.7% | 0.61 | 1.27 |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 248.2 | 4.13 | 4.07 | 1.33 | 40.0% | 18.5% | 7.1% | 1.09 | 1.24 |
| Gray | COL | ARI | 21 | 6.00 | 3.92 | 1.52 | 21.1% | 7.4% | 0.86 | 1.17 | |
| Hamels | TEX | SDP | 368 | 3.01 | 3.35 | 1.18 | 58.8% | 24.4% | 7.4% | 0.76 | 1.49 |
| Kennedy | SDP | TEX | 335.2 | 3.75 | 3.59 | 1.27 | 47.6% | 23.9% | 8.0% | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| Leake | SFG | LAD | 369.2 | 3.63 | 3.68 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 17.6% | 5.8% | 0.95 | 2.03 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 383.1 | 2.00 | 2.15 | 0.88 | 66.7% | 32.5% | 4.4% | 0.52 | 1.84 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. SF) – Kersh must have gotten the date wrong, because he missed his rendezvous with Madison Bumgarner last night, this after arriving on time for their match-ups the other three times that Kershaw has faced his orange-and-black rivals. For the past two months, Kershaw had just one start (out of ten turns total) in which the southpaw surrendered more than one run, and his ERA over that stretch was a miniscule 0.92, with just eight runs surrendered in 78.0 innings of work, a span that crossed 96 strikeouts but just eight walks. Kersh owns the top spot in our rankings until further notice.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. PHI) – Their 14 runs scored yesterday notwithstanding, the Phils are considered to be a relatively easy target for opposing pitchers, particularly since Maikel Franco went on the shelf. Harvey stands to benefit if last night’s ballgame was indeed the aberration that it appears, as every split imaginable puts the Phils in a sub-700 OPS situation, whether looking at platoons, recency, or home-road splits. Harvey has gone five consecutive starts with one or zero runs allowed, posting a 0.52 ERA and 33 strikeouts against only two walks in 34.7 innings; stretch back further and we see that he has a 1.34 ERA over his last 12 contests, though the strikeouts were less impressive in June and July. The Phils are one of the few clubs that have had a modicum of success against Harvey this season, having scored six runs against the right-hander in 12.0 innings over their first two meetings.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Max Scherzer WAS (at STL) – August was a brutal month for Scherzer, with a 6.43 ERA across five consecutive starts that each involved with three or more runs allowed. He entered the half as the leader in the clubhouse for the NL Cy Young, but has since been leapfrogged by Kershaw and others, and though he can’t do anything about the performance of others, most of the consternation was Scherzer’s own doing. He’s still been missing bats, with 37 strikeouts over his last 28.0 innings, but hard-hit baseballs have increased in frequency as evidenced by his seven homers and nine doubles allowed over these last five games. His first- and second-half splits read like a Jekyll-and-Hyde situation, as the 2.11 ERA that Scherzer supported prior to the All-Star Break has more than doubled to a 5.09 mark after it, and the pitcher who walked just 14 batters in his first 132.0 innings now has 12 free passes in his last 46.0 frames. The sour run has robbed Scherzer of his All-In card, and he will have to earned his way back into the circle of trust.
Editor’s Note: Michael Wacha has been scratched from today’s start. Tyler Lyons will start in his place.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. WAS) – It was only a week ago that the Nats’ offense was considered a joke, with a lineup full of injured players who had not been able to carry the same weight as they did before visiting the DL, but many of the sleeping bats have woken up. Jayson Werth finally started hitting, Anthony Rendon has begun to rediscover the promising stroke of last season, and the team as a whole has a .374 wOBA and 870 OPS over the last seven days. Wacha has been nearly unhittable lately, with a 0.92 ERA and 35-to-11 ratio of strikeouts to walks over his last six starts, covering 39.0 innings. The Cards have essentially sewn up a division title while the Nats fight to save their season, and tonight’s matchup between Wacha and Scherzer features the proverbial two trains headed in opposite directions.
Cole Hamels TEX (at SD) – The ER count for Hamels over the past five games reads like the countdown to a shuttle launch, with a five-four-three-two-one pattern that would require a clean outing with no runs allowed in order to continue. The Padres have been the right team to oblige, given their season-long struggles with scoring runs, and even a recent surge has actually looked a bit too much like the meager performance that preceded it, given a seven-day wOBA of .296 that’s actually a point lower than their season mark.
Scott Kazmir HOU (vs. SEA) – Kazmir entered play with his new club on an absolute tear, but his performance has come back down to earth over the last several turns. He has allowed 13 runs over his last 29.7 innings, and though his strike-zone numbers (28 K’s and nine walks) are in line with his season stats, the fact that he has given up 42-percent of his homers on the season (five of 12) over the last five games is a potential cause for concern – prior to August, Kaz went seven starts and 48.3 innings without giving up a homer.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conley | 0.426 | 3.00 | 0.339 | 5.40 | 0.241 | 0.668 | 0.326 | 4.56 | 0.283 | 60.78 | 19.4% |
| Perez | 0.394 | 7.55 | 0.308 | 3.67 | 0.248 | 0.665 | 0.312 | 5.14 | 0.28 | 77.59 | 14.3% |
| Iglesias | 0.330 | 5.13 | 0.258 | 3.06 | 0.242 | 0.716 | 0.285 | 3.37 | 0.222 | 86.87 | 26.2% |
| Hammel | 0.301 | 2.87 | 0.296 | 3.92 | 0.248 | 0.701 | 0.274 | 3.79 | 0.231 | 91.67 | 23.3% |
| Heaney | 0.249 | 1.99 | 0.339 | 4.76 | 0.251 | 0.687 | 0.284 | 4.14 | 0.255 | 82.58 | 16.6% |
| Gray | 0.268 | 2.34 | 0.263 | 3.01 | 0.247 | 0.702 | 0.260 | 3.34 | 0.216 | 100.39 | 20.7% |
| Tanaka | 0.284 | 3.08 | 0.296 | 3.27 | 0.263 | 0.730 | 0.272 | 3.53 | 0.228 | 97.90 | 24.4% |
| Owens | 0.348 | 7.71 | 0.308 | 3.33 | 0.260 | 0.777 | 0.284 | 4.19 | 0.241 | 98.00 | 22.0% |
| Ramirez | 0.290 | 3.54 | 0.355 | 5.25 | 0.252 | 0.736 | 0.277 | 4.54 | 0.246 | 71.09 | 18.0% |
| Gausman | 0.303 | 3.29 | 0.310 | 4.71 | 0.241 | 0.679 | 0.291 | 3.70 | 0.248 | 83.54 | 19.4% |
| Bauer | 0.324 | 4.55 | 0.316 | 3.95 | 0.260 | 0.773 | 0.291 | 4.24 | 0.242 | 98.62 | 22.4% |
| Dickey | 0.310 | 3.42 | 0.326 | 4.39 | 0.254 | 0.725 | 0.267 | 4.49 | 0.241 | 102.62 | 17.0% |
| Nola | 0.301 | 3.38 | 0.265 | 3.19 | 0.244 | 0.697 | 0.239 | 4.05 | 0.212 | 91.25 | 20.0% |
| Harvey | 0.298 | 3.40 | 0.234 | 1.62 | 0.250 | 0.685 | 0.253 | 3.34 | 0.211 | 98.25 | 23.7% |
| Wolf | 0.272 | 3.68 | 0.357 | 4.45 | 0.266 | 0.703 | 0.341 | 3.58 | 0.296 | 80.13 | 17.4% |
| Ventura | 0.304 | 3.79 | 0.307 | 3.54 | 0.268 | 0.741 | 0.292 | 3.69 | 0.241 | 94.92 | 20.7% |
| Rodon | 0.235 | 3.55 | 0.368 | 4.41 | 0.259 | 0.721 | 0.329 | 3.92 | 0.253 | 92.32 | 24.0% |
| Milone | 0.276 | 3.73 | 0.347 | 4.14 | 0.243 | 0.642 | 0.282 | 4.72 | 0.262 | 87.38 | 15.4% |
| Locke | 0.302 | 4.02 | 0.326 | 4.24 | 0.224 | 0.654 | 0.293 | 4.26 | 0.259 | 93.11 | 16.7% |
| Davies | 0.260 | 0.719 | |||||||||
| Walker | 0.307 | 3.54 | 0.309 | 4.91 | 0.242 | 0.727 | 0.292 | 3.91 | 0.244 | 88.09 | 22.4% |
| Kazmir | 0.300 | 3.11 | 0.274 | 3.04 | 0.261 | 0.719 | 0.274 | 3.37 | 0.226 | 94.75 | 21.5% |
| Scherzer | 0.298 | 3.41 | 0.254 | 2.56 | 0.261 | 0.729 | 0.295 | 2.81 | 0.222 | 105.71 | 28.7% |
| Wacha | 0.265 | 2.89 | 0.293 | 2.90 | 0.251 | 0.725 | 0.278 | 3.22 | 0.229 | 94.64 | 20.8% |
| Anderson | 0.320 | 3.81 | 0.342 | 4.38 | 0.271 | 0.777 | 0.307 | 4.14 | 0.267 | 91.98 | 18.5% |
| Gray | 0.287 | 3.27 | 0.374 | 9.00 | 0.265 | 0.733 | 0.354 | 3.60 | 0.287 | 71.00 | 21.1% |
| Hamels | 0.296 | 2.10 | 0.288 | 3.25 | 0.240 | 0.668 | 0.296 | 3.24 | 0.233 | 104.55 | 24.4% |
| Kennedy | 0.319 | 3.68 | 0.324 | 3.82 | 0.263 | 0.742 | 0.299 | 3.86 | 0.244 | 100.32 | 23.9% |
| Leake | 0.334 | 4.04 | 0.282 | 3.27 | 0.248 | 0.741 | 0.282 | 3.88 | 0.249 | 96.04 | 17.6% |
| Kershaw | 0.235 | 1.87 | 0.236 | 2.03 | 0.272 | 0.717 | 0.281 | 1.95 | 0.196 | 102.40 | 32.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. TB) – Gausman’s performance has been playing ping-pong over his last six turns, and the ball is now on his side of the table to return serve with another quality start. Despite the fantasy-point roller coaster, Gausman has been reasonably consistent on the surface, having pitched between 5.7 and 7.0 frames while giving up at least two runs in each of his last six starts, but the strikeouts have been all over the place, from a low of three K’s in his last start to a pair of eight-K performances mid-month. He faces a Rays club that has a nearly 100-point discrepancy in OPS against southpaws and northpaws, giving the Orioles starter an edge in tonight intradivision matchup.
Taijuan Walker SEA (at HOU) – Speaking of ping-pong volatility, Walker’s performance has bounced around the table throughout the season, making it very difficult to peg which version of the young right-hander will show up on a game-by-game basis. Considering these season-long patterns, Walker’s August was reasonably consistent, putting up numbers that were within spitting distance of a quality start in four consecutive starts until he emerged from the much with 6.3 shutout frames against the White Sox in his last start. The Astros pose a greater challenge than the Pale Hose, and this combined with the fact that Walker hasn’t generated more than a half-dizen K’s in any of his last five starts – and just once in his last eight turns – effectively limits his upside.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at MIN) – Rodon is the ideal GPP play on a start-by-start basis, given his exceedingly-high walk rate and tendency toward crooked numbers that is counterbalanced by the occasional K spike when his command is in condition to allow his fastball-slider combination to play to its fullest potential. The Twins have been striking out a lot lately, including a 27.2-percent rate over their last seven ballgames, and Rodon’s hop-scotch pattern of strikeout generation is on track to land on eight or more whiffs in tonight’s contest.
Aaron Nola PHI (at NYM)
Ian Kennedy SD (vs. TEX)
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. DET)
Mike Leake SF (at LAD)
Erasmo Ramirez TB (at BAL)
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. CLE)
Trevor Bauer CLE (at TOR) – I see one of two scenarios here, and they lie at opposite extremes of the spectrum: 1) Bauer is off-target (as usual) and the Jays are taking aim (as usual), resulting in a lot of crooked numbers on the scoreboard; or 2) he strikes out like nine Jays over seven shutout innings. There is no middle alternative. Contrarian GPP play, anyone?
Tommy Milone MIN (vs. CHW)
Jeff Locke PIT (at MIL)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. PIT)
Randy Wolf DET (at KC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jon Gray COL (vs. ARI)
Chase Anderson ARI (at COL)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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