Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Kansas City Royals
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Kansas City Royals Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 70.5
— World Series Odds: 1000/1
— Key Additions: Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Homer Bailey, Brad Boxberger
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Chris Owings, Jorge Bonifacio, Brian Goodwin, Cameron Gallagher
— Outlook: It’s a bit of a sketchy situation for the Kansas City bats. Whit Merrifield leads their absolutely ugly lineup loaded with high strikeout hitters (seven in total) and small sample size theatrics from 2018. Adalberto Mondesi put up big numbers, but his .335 BABIP and -.027 point xWOBA differential suggest we should lower expectations. Ryan O’Hearn and Salvador Perez both averaged over 91 MPH exit velocity, but they aren’t the ideal power hitters to label as the best on your team. The addition of Billy Hamilton adds stolen base potential to go with that of Mondesi/Merrifield, but also comes with just a .277 wOBA and a sad .091 ISO. Five of the nine players in their projected lineup tallied a wRC+ under 90 last season. You can find a time and place to stack any team in DFS, but it stands to reason that we’ll be using the Royals less than some other teams in the league.
The indicators for the Royals starting rotation were not strong in 2018, and it is difficult to have high hopes for them in 2019. Jakob Junis (3.98 SIERA, 21.6% K), Danny Duffy (4.75 SIERA, 20.4% K), Ian Kennedy (4.55 SIERA, 20.3% K), Brad Keller (4.51 SEIRA, 16.5% K), and Jorge Lopez (4.84 SIERA, 16.2% K) all showed us vulnerability and a lack of strikeout upside. Each of the starters finished below league average in overall PlateIQ score, and the lack of pitching figures to be a primary driver in the team’s 1000/1 World Series odds.
3/4 Status Update: Salvador Perez is reportedly going to receive Tommy John Surgery and may miss the 2019 season if true.
— DFS Ownership Trends: The Royals were the 18th-most popular team overall, thanks in part to Salvador Perez being one of a dominant few at the catcher position. Perez and his power capability at the catcher position actually led to him being the 14th-most popular hitter overall and the second-most popular catcher. Using one of the select few catchers with strong hitting skills feels safe in DFS, but always be aware your selection will come with high end ownership. Everyone is facing the same conditions as you are when drafting at the catcher spot.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Aside from Patrick Corbin , no pitcher in MLB earned more strikeouts off their sliders than Jake Junis and his 127 (and for now, we’ll just ignore the fact that Corbin is a few standard deviations ahead at 194). It’s a filthy pitch. Granted, it’s his only pitch that’s any good at the moment, but it at least provides the possibility that he could be an above-average strikeout pitcher moving forward.
— There’s no denying Adalberto Mondesi’s speed is legit. Any number of metrics can confirm this: his 29.9 ft/sec sprint speed (tied for ninth-best in MLB last year), his 32 steals (eighth-most in MLB) despite playing in only 75 games. But his 19.7% HR/FB isn’t going to stick. For reference, here are a few qualified sluggers who finished 2018 in that range: Michael Conforto, Trevor Story, Edwin Encarnacion. Yeah…I’ll take the under on that HR/FB rate in 2019.