FantasyDraft MLB Expert Survey: Friday, August 30th
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in MLB DFS today? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy baseball analysts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for tonight’s contests. NOTE: Surveys for early slates will be posted when there are four or more early games.
Friday, August 30th
Who is your favorite hitter for cash games?
Notorious: Trevor Story
CheeseIsGood: Daniel Murphy
MrTuttle: Trevor Story
boggslite: Trevor Story
Who is your favorite hitter for tournaments?
Notorious: Nelson Cruz
CheeseIsGood: J.D. Martinez
MrTuttle: Mike Trout
boggslite: J.D. Martinez
Who is your favorite pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Madison Bumgarner
CheeseIsGood: Madison Bumgarner
MrTuttle: Max Fried
boggslite: Kyle Gibson
Who is your favorite pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Anibal Sanchez
CheeseIsGood: Shane Bieber
MrTuttle: Shane Bieber
boggslite: Shane Bieber
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Max Fried
CheeseIsGood: Max Fried
MrTuttle: Max Fried
boggslite: Anibal Sanchez
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Kolby Allard
CheeseIsGood: John Means
MrTuttle: John Means
boggslite: Max Fried
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Yasiel Puig
CheeseIsGood: Josh Rojas
MrTuttle: Josh Rojas
boggslite: Josh Rojas
Who is your top contrarian play on the board?
Notorious: Jarrod Dyson
CheeseIsGood: Cody Bellinger
MrTuttle: Bryce Harper
boggslite: Hunter Dozier
Which player are you most afraid of having little to no exposure to?
Notorious: Shane Bieber
CheeseIsGood: Aaron Nola
MrTuttle: Yordan Alvarez
boggslite: Mike Trout
Which high-priced pitcher will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Wade Miley
CheeseIsGood: Wade Miley
MrTuttle: Wade Miley
boggslite: Wade Miley
Which high-priced hitter will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Rafael Devers
CheeseIsGood: Francisco Lindor
MrTuttle: Will Smith
boggslite: Will Smith
What’s your sneaky home run call of the day?
Notorious: Matt Chapman
CheeseIsGood: Chad Pinder
MrTuttle: Luis Arraez
boggslite: Asdrubal Cabrera
What’s your favorite overall team stack?
Notorious: COL
CheeseIsGood: COL
MrTuttle: COL
boggslite: COL
What’s your favorite sneaky team stack?
Notorious: ATL
CheeseIsGood: BOS
MrTuttle: LAA
boggslite: BOS
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: With the Rockies likely soaking up a ton of ownership, we can get some seriously high-powered offenses with high implied totals at low ownership tonight — Yankees (5.90), Astros (6.10), Nationals (5.98), Braves (5.69), and Twins (6.30).
CheeseIsGood: The two pitchers COMBINED in the Coors Field game have just a 24.1% strikeout rate. Neither Dario Agrazal or Antonio Senzatela even hit the 15% mark in strikeouts to either side of the plate. Yikes.
MrTuttle: Antonio Senzatela has an absolutely laughable 1.6 K-BB% on the season. Dario Agrazal is tied with Brett Anderson for the second worst K-BB% of the slate at 5.2%.
boggslite: Dario Agrazal 5.8% swinging strike rate and 11.9% strikeout rate is the lowest among available pitchers on tonight’s slate. We should see plenty of balls in play in Coors Field tonight which does not bode well for the young righty with the league’s worst defense behind him.
What is your hot take of the day?
Notorious: Six teams score double-digit runs tonight.
CheeseIsGood: Coors Field exceeds 30 hits and 15 runs, but all of the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Twins outscore both sides of the Pirates-Rockies.
MrTuttle: The Twins slug 5+ HRs.
boggslite: Both starters in Coors Field combine for 4 or less strikeouts against opposing position players.
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Max Fried – I will be prioritizing bats over pitchers tonight, which is why I won’t be paying up for my SP1. There are so many high-powered offenses in great spots that I’d rather take my chances with a fade of Bumgarner, Bauer, Bieber, Lamet, and Nola. Fried has been solid in 25 starts this season, posting a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 53%. He gets a dream matchup against the White Sox, who see a negative park shift and who lose the DH in this series. They have struggled against left-handed pitching all year.
CheeseIsGood: Max Fried and Anibal Sanchez – My favorite high end pitcher is Shane Bieber, but the bats have to be the priority on this slate. I’m looking at a couple of favorable matchups for mid-tier pitchers and just hoping that none of the aces break the slate with huge games. On DK, Max Fried is too cheap for a matchup with the White Sox. Fried is over 50% ground balls and 22% strikeouts to both sides of the plate with the White Sox being a favorable opponent for both high strikeouts, low walks and ground balls. On FD, it’s Anibal Sanchez with the lower salary and a matchup against the Marlins. His ability to limit hard contact along with the high strikeouts and low power of the Marlins give him a solid floor and higher than usual ceiling at a fair price.
MrTuttle: Max Fried + Anibal Sanchez – As the other expert’s have noted, prioritizing bats seems to be the correct approach to lineup construction in all formats. That leaves us looking at Friday’s low-priced pitching options which is headlined by Max Fried. Fried gets a strong home matchup against against a White Sox offense that has been better against left-handed pitching this season (99 wRC+) but that will be without a DH in an NL park. Despite the White Sox relative success against southpaws they still have a lot of strikeouts in their lineup – their projected lineup owns a 25.1% strikeout rate against LHP over the last two seasons – which helps pads Fried’s fantasy floor and elevate his ceiling. Fried’s price tag on FanDuel is a bit expensive which is where Anibal Sanchez enters the discussion. Sanchez is a pitcher that I’m typically short on as I think he’s been more lucky than good this season (3.81 ERA vs 5.03 SIERA) but there’s no denying a home matchup against a terrible Marlins offense (76 wRC+; 25.2 K% vs RHP). Sanchez has solid win equity with the Nationals being listed as -243 favorites and his quality start probability (.45) via THE BAT are second to just John Means (.48) of pitcher’s priced $8,000 or below.
boggslite: Kyle Gibson – He’s not the sexiest pick on the slate, but he draws the best matchup against a hapless Tigers squad that may be without their toughest out at the plate in Miguel Cabrera. On a night where spending down at pitcher is the optimal strategy, Gibson should have no problems posting a strong performance with plenty of strikeout potential and run support behind him.
Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Charlie Blackmon – Honestly, any Rockies’ hitter will do just fine tonight. From a projection standpoint, they are clearly the top offense to target in this slate. They are playing at home in Coors Field and draw one of the best matchups of the slate. Dario Agrazal has a SIERA close to 6.00 with a strikeout rate barely north of 10% this season. He struggles with batters from both sides of the plate and the Rockies are favorites in a game that features a total of 14.5 runs. UPDATE: Blackmon is not in the lineup tonight.
CheeseIsGood: Gary Sanchez – With Charlie Blackmon being out of the lineup, the slate changes a bit between cash games and tournaments. I want to stay in Coors Field for cash games with Daniel Murphy being my first choice based on salary, but in tournaments, I’m going to side with Gary Sanchez. On DK, he gives you a huge edge at the catcher position, while on FD his ownership should stay in check based on his C/1B eligibility. His huge 53% fly ball rate and .286 ISO plays well against the ground ball lean but low strikeouts of Brett Anderson.
MrTuttle: Trevor Story – We’ve had some bad pitchers take the mound at Coors this season but Dario Agrazal vs Antonio Senzatela has to be the most favorable combined hitting matchup of the year by a wide margin. Friday’s total is currently sitting at 14.5 and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if that number increases as the day progresses. You can’t go wrong targeting any hitter from this game but Trevor Story gets my nod for the top overall play as he projects better than the slate’s other shortstop options by a wide margin.
boggslite: Charlie Blackmon – His numbers at Coors Field speak for themselves and he should get plenty of quality pitches to hit against a struggling young righty in Agrazal, who has managed to strikeout just 14.3% of the LHB he has faced this season. Digging deeper, Agrazal throws sinkers 50% of the time. Blackmon meanwhile has crushed sinkers to the tune of a .467 wOBA and a .244 ISO dating back to 2016. UPDATE: Blackmon is not in the lineup tonight.
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