MLB DFS Picks: Slate Preview, Projections, & Optimizer Values for Saturday (August 26)
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, August 26th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got a few afternoon games on the schedule for Saturday followed by a nice 8-game main slate this evening. There are a few ace-caliber pitchers to consider at the top, but things thin out on the pitching front fairly quickly. This is also a slate that doesn’t feature the Braves, Dodgers, or Coors Field, so it’ll be interesting to see where ownership congregates on the hitting side of things.
Without further ado, let’s jump right in and find some MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- COL/BAL comes in with a GREEN/YELLOW tag, which doesn’t sound too scary. Roth says the most likely outcome is a fully uninterrupted game, though there is a small chance of rain in the area.
- LAA/NYM and OAK/CHW are both GREEN. There’s a slight chance of rain in New York, but nothing that sounds severe enough to disrupt the game. In Chicago, we’ll see winds blowing out to right field at around 15 mph.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Joe Ryan will come off the IL to start for the Twins tonight against the Rangers. Ryan hasn’t pitched in the majors since August 2nd as a result of a groin issue, though he did get up to 71 pitches in a rehab outing in Triple-A. 80-90 pitches seems like a reasonable expectation here if things go according to plan.
- The Reds are expected to bring Ben Lively off the IL after he missed most of the month with a pectoral injury. He isn’t the confirmed starter as of this writing, as there’s a chance this could be a piggyback situation with Brett Kennedy.
- Zach Davies is another pitcher coming off the injured list, and he’s been sidelined for more than a month with a bad back. He made 3 rehab starts in the minors and topped out at 87 pitches in his last go-round.
- Shohei Ohtani is planning on continuing to hit despite his right elbow injury, though the Angels did just put Mike Trout and Matt Thaiss on the IL before their ongoing series against the Mets.
- Nolan Arenado departed last night’s loss to the Phillies early with a sore back. Nolan Gorman would presumably start at the hot corner if Arenado is unable to suit up tonight.
- Sal Frelick missed last night’s game with a hamstring issue, and he’s reportedly day-to-day. Tyrone Taylor started in center with Mark Canha moving to right yesterday.
- Jake Cronenworth got hit on the wrist by a pitch last night, which forced him to leave the game. No word yet on the extent of the injury.
- The Phillies, Orioles, and Angels look like appealing stacks against attackable pitchers. The Phillies will take their swings against no-strikeout righty Dakota Hudson, while the O’s and Halos will face Chris Flexen and Carlos Carrasco, respectively. The White Sox should also be a popular source for power hunting against the homer-prone JP Sears.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Max Scherzer ($11,000) headlines the slate from a salary standpoint on the road in Minnesota, though Zack Wheeler, Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan, and Kyle Bradish are all over $10,000 on FanDuel. Bradish draws the softest matchup of the bunch at home against Colorado, but Scherzer, Wheeler, and Peralta are all going to be in my tournament player pool. Ryan is the easiest fade, as he’ll likely be on a pitch count in a more daunting spot vs. Texas.
- Once you get past Ryan, the next most expensive pitcher is the $7,900 Dakota Hudson. Hudson isn’t really playable, while the cheap tier is largely avoidable. If you must punt with a pitcher, I’d consider Zach Davies ($6,000) or Touki Toussaint ($7,000) against Cincy and Oakland, respectively.
- The OAK-CHW series has provided some offensive fireworks already, and we can go right back to the well tonight. Sears is a decent pitcher, but he’ll serve up some home runs. Luis Robert ($3,700) is a staple in cash game builds, while Eloy Jimenez ($2,900) and Tim Anderson ($2,500) are my next stop in Sox stacks. Ryan Noda ($2,800) and Seth Brown ($2,600) are useful power lefties to throw at Toussaint, while Zack Gelof ($4,000) is next on the list in tournaments if you have the money to spend.
- Robert came through for us just the other day, so why not go right back to the well? I’ll gladly take Robert to rack up higher than 9 fantasy points on Underdog in a plus matchup against Sears. If you’re new to the site, be sure to grab our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your first deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Carrasco has been dreadful for most of the year, so the Angels are squarely in play. You don’t need me to talk you into Shohei Ohtani ($4,400) as arguably the top bat on the entire slate, while I like the value and power upside for Brandon Drury ($2,800) too. Mike Moustakas ($2,600) is on my radar as a cheap lefty with some power left in his bat.
- The Orioles should be popular again tonight, with Gunnar Henderson ($3,500) standing out most of all with the platoon advantage against Flexen. Flexen hasn’t been particularly good against righties over the years either, which keeps Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100) in play as a solid value with elite power.
- Mad Max is all the way up at $12,000 on DK, which seems a bit egregious. He projects as the top pitching option, but Freddy Peralta ($10,800) and Kyle Bradish ($9,000) are better point-per-dollar values. Wheeler is also up there at $11,600. If you’re looking for cheaper options, I’d again first look to Toussaint ($7,000) and Davies ($5,700) as tournament punts.
- Tim Anderson ($3,100) is a very obvious cash game play as the lead-off hitter against Sears. There’s more value on the other side of the game however, with Seth Brown ($3,500), Ryan Noda ($3,200), and Shea Langeliers ($3,200) all popping as strong plays in projections.
- I’ll again make Ohtani ($6,500) a priority spend, and he’s obviously fine as a one-off if you can’t bring yourself to stack this iteration of the Angels.
- Another value stack worth a look is the Pirates, who’ll see Javier Assad and some of the Cubs’ bullpen. Ji Hwan Bae ($3,000) and Josh Palacios ($2,500) are affordable and hitting in decent lineup spots, while Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,400) should lead off. Jack Suwinski ($3,600) should also move up in the order against the righty, and he leads the Buccos with a .281 ISO vs. RHP on the year.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!