MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 5)
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, April 5th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Teams around the league are still hosting home openers, which is why we’ve got quite a bit of daytime baseball on the schedule for Friday. However, we’ve also got a nice little 7-gamer to break down this evening on DraftKings. Prize pools on DK look pretty appetizing for this slate, so let’s break it all down, shall we?
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- The sketchiest weather on the main slate will oddly occur in Anaheim, though it doesn’t sound too bad. Roth has BOS/LAA as a straight YELLOW with the potential for a delay, though rain is likely gone by the time the first pitch happens around 9:40 PM ET. There are also winds blowing out to RF here at around 20 mph.
- NYM/CIN gets a GREEN/YELLOW tag with drizzle in the area, though likely nothing capable of causing a delay. It’s also cold in Cincy, with winds blowing out to center at around 10 mph.
- PHI/WAS and ARI/ATL are both GREEN.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Every scheduled starting pitcher on the slate will be taking a second turn through the rotation. Starters will be getting more stretched out as we move forward, though we’re still unlikely to see anybody get stretched out too far beyond 100 pitches so early in the season.
- The White Sox placed Eloy Jimenez on the IL with the adductor strain he suffered on Sunday. Gavin Sheets is likely to continue to start in Jimenez’s place, though Rangers legend Robbie Grossman was activated to Eloy’s vacated spot on the MLB roster. Sheets is projected to hit cleanup tonight for the Sox against Brady Singer.
- The Mariners put Ty France on the paternity list, which likely takes him out of consideration for the Mariners’ weekend series in Milwaukee. Luke Raley is projected to slot into France’s spot in the lineup tonight against Freddy Peralta.
- Jake Fraley didn’t crack the Reds’ lineup as they prepare to face Mets lefty Jose Quintana. Stuart Fairchild is in the lineup hitting 5th, with Will Benson (7th) being the only lefty in the order.
- The DBax will throw 5 lefties at Spencer Strider with Joc Pederson hitting in the heart of the order (5th). Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll will occupy the first 2 lineup spots, while Jace Peterson and Jake McCarthy are in the lineup hitting 8th and 9th, respectively. Peterson is starting in place of Geraldo Perdomo, who’s dealing with a sore knee that took him out of Wednesday’s game.
- Adam Duvall is in the Braves’ lineup against southpaw Tommy Henry, which sends Jarred Kelenic to the bench.
- From a stacks standpoint, there’s the Braves and then everybody else tonight. Atlanta’s 5.99 implied run total is easily the highest on the slate as they get set to take their swings against Henry, a mediocre left-hander. The Astros are next up (5.36) against another middling lefty in Cody Bradford in Arlington. No other team on the slate has an implied run total north of 5.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- The Braves game against the White Sox on Wednesday was postponed, so Spencer Strider ($11,000) will instead start at home tonight against the visiting Diamondbacks. Strider is easily the most reliable fantasy ace in the game at this point, as his 36.8% strikeout rate a season ago was easily the highest mark among starters. Arizona is not a high-strikeout offense (21.7% vs. RHP since 2023), yet Strider is still lapping the field from a median projection standpoint this evening.
- This is a deep and strong pitching slate, which could keep Strider from coming in as overwhelming chalk at his massive salary. The popular SP2 to pair with Strider will likely be Griffin Canning, who comes in at only $7,000 at home against the Red Sox. This version of the Sox is striking out quite a bit (26%) against right-handed pitching, and Canning threw 96 pitches in his season debut against the O’s last week. If you have a bit more salary to spend, all of Aaron Nola (at WAS), Freddy Peralta (vs. SEA), and Hunter Greene (vs. NYM) get advantageous on-paper matchups. Brady Singer was a popular pitcher to stack against in his first start, but he’s likely to gain some traction tonight in a plus spot of his own at home against the White Sox.
- So, the Braves. Strider’s massive price tag may help to limit the ownership on the pricey Atlanta hitters, but this is clearly the top offense on the night. Henry is arguably the weakest pitcher taking the mound tonight, and he didn’t fare particularly well in his first outing of the year against the lowly Rockies, either. Lefties have enjoyed quite a bit of success (.381 wOBA) against the southpaw in his career, so Matt Olson and Michael Harris are still firmly in play for stacks alongside the usual standout RHBs – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna. Nothing about this stack will be sneaky, even with the cumbersome salaries on most of these hitters.
- The Astros (vs. Bradford) and the Phillies (against Patrick Corbin) should attract some attention, too. Bradford posted a fairly unlucky 5.30 ERA a season ago, but he’s also a low-strikeout flyball pitcher. The Astros are a sea of green in PlateIQ against lefties, with even Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker historically faring well against same-handed pitching. Corbin has been a punching bag for the past several years, and the Phillies have constructed an All-Star team of hitters between Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber. Even Alec Bohm (.272 ISO, .388 wOBA) raked lefties in 2023. Of course, Houston and Philly are both expensive stacks, too.
- The Mets could be a cheaper stack pulling some ownership as they get a major park upgrade, trading Citi Field for Great American Ballpark. The matchup against Greene isn’t an easy one, but he has been power-prone early in his career. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are both up over $5,000, but nobody else in this lineup will run you more than $4,100.
- The Rangers are a sneakier stack on my radar tonight. The big boys (Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien) won’t come cheap, but I can’t imagine many will opt to pay up for Texas stacks with so many other pricey offenses in better spots. Their matchup against Hunter Brown is fairly boom-or-bust, as Brown is a good combination of strikeouts and groundballs when he’s right. Texas still has a decent 4.64 implied run total in this one, and the Astros’ bullpen beyond Hader, Pressly, and Abreu is vulnerable.
- A few value bats worth considering as one-offs are Dominic Fletcher ($2,200), Braden Shewmake ($2,300), Hawks legend Josh Smith ($2,300), Jake Bauers ($2,800), and Francisco Alvarez ($3,200).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
Good luck tonight!
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