MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (March 28)
Taylor Smith previews the Thursday, March 28th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Opening Day! MLB DFS may not have the global appeal of NFL DFS, but I get the feeling that most within the industry actually prefer the daily baseball grind. I am no exception. Because it’s baseball season, Mother Nature is already wreaking havoc. A couple of games have been postponed due to weather, which leaves us with a solid 8-gamer to kick things off on DraftKings this Thursday afternoon.
As usual, there’s a lot to consider before the first pitch is thrown at 4:10 PM ET. I’m here to provide a bird’s-eye view of the slate on DraftKings, and I’ll update this as needed before the games get underway. Without further delay, let’s dive into the Opening Day docket, shall we?
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Fortunately, none of the games on DK will be affected by the bad weather we’ve got out east. Every DK game on Roth’s weather report has a GREEN tag, though plenty of the contests will feature cooler, more pitcher-friendly weather.
- DET/CWS and WSH/CIN both feature temps in the 50s with winds blowing out to left/left-center. The California games (STL/LAD, SF/SD) have temperatures in the 60s, so decent enough hitting weather by spring standards.
- MIN/KC has temps in the 60s with winds gusting a decent amount out to center. Solid enough hitting conditions.
- NYY/HOU will take place in Houston, but the Astros are expected to open the roof with temps in the 70s.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Tyler Glasnow and Yu Darvish are the only pitchers making their second starts of the season after they squared off against each other in Korea last week. Glasnow was lifted after hurling 77 pitches through 5 innings, while Darvish lasted just 3.2 innings on 72 pitches. 85-90 pitches on Thursday seems like a realistic enough target for both assuming things go well enough.
- Garrett Crochet will be making his first MLB start after pitching exclusively out of the White Sox bullpen in each of his first 3 MLB seasons. The Sox say they’re planning on building him up as a legitimate starter, so this isn’t an opener situation. Still, there’s plenty of uncertainty with regard to Crochet’s potential pitch count ahead of this start against the Tigers.
- Bryan Reynolds is reportedly dealing with “mid-back discomfort,” but he’s projected to hit 2nd in the Pirates lineup against Jesus Luzardo.
- Matt McLain had shoulder surgery on Wednesday that’s expected to keep him sidelined indefinitely. Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario will play significant roles in the Reds infield with McLain and the suspended Noelvi Marte unavailable.
- Josh Lowe is dealing with an oblique injury, so he’ll start the season on the IL. Richie Palacios is projected to draw a start in the outfield here against the Jays’ Jose Berrios.
- DJ LeMahieu is unavailable for the Yankees because of a foot injury, and the team made a trade for Marlins legend Jon Berti on Wednesday. Oswaldo Cabrera is expected to start in LeMahieu’s spot at third base in this one against Framber Valdez.
- Dylan Carlson injured his shoulder in an outfield collision with Jordan Walker the other day, so he won’t be in the Cardinals lineup on Opening Day in LA. Speedster Victor Scott is expected to take Carlson’s place in the lineup as St. Louis’ starting center fielder.
- Something tells me I’ll be saying this a lot this season, but the Dodgers have the highest run total (5.14) on the slate. They’ll be taking their swings against Miles Mikolas, one of the weaker pitchers set to toe the rubber on Opening Day. The Reds are checking in with the 2nd-highest total (4.95) at home against formerly homer-prone RHP Josiah Gray, while the Astros (4.6), Tigers (4.2), Twins (4.1), and Nationals (4) are the only other offenses with implied run totals of at least 4 runs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- Glasnow is the headlining starting pitcher at $9,500 at home against the Cardinals. St. Louis isn’t a particularly high-strikeout offense, and they did have a collective walk rate of over 10% vs. RHP a season ago. Given Glasnow’s history of sketchy control, it’s far from a perfect matchup. Most will likely opt for the $400 discount to Tarik Skubal, a high-strikeout LHP who gets a solid matchup on the road against a largely punchless White Sox offense. Chicago’s hitters struck out more than 24% against LHP with a middling .165 ISO and a .317 wOBA a season ago.
- Jesus Luzardo ($7,600) is likely to emerge as the chalk SP2 at home against the Pirates. Luzardo enjoyed a healthy breakout season last year for Miami, and he’ll take the mound in his pitcher-friendly home park. Pittsburgh’s offense also wasn’t all that imposing from a power standpoint (.173 ISO) against LHP in 2023.
- Luzardo’s affordability and the lack of compelling super-cheap options could lead to pretty condensed ownership on the pitching side. One cheapie that could garner some attention is Frankie Montas ($6,300) at home against the Nationals. I personally don’t have a whole lot of interest, however. Montas is a bit of a question mark after battling injuries over the past couple of years, and Great American Ballpark is the most hitter-friendly park on the slate.
- As mentioned above, the Dodgers and Reds look like the popular bats to target against Mikolas and Gray, respectively. Paying up for the full LA stack isn’t easy given the hefty salaries on Shohei Ohtani ($6,400), Mookie Betts ($6,500), Freddie Freeman ($6,400), and Teoscar Hernandez ($5,000), but hey, that’s how it should be. It’s a lot easier to get to the Reds. Elly De La Cruz ($5,600) is priced up, but nobody else in the projected lineup will run you more than $4,700. Will Benson ($3,300) and Jake Fraley ($4,300) stand out as potential power bats in a great spot for lefties.
- Speaking of cheap, the Nationals on the other side of that matchup look compelling enough too. I don’t see much reason to run away from stacking against Montas, especially if he winds up semi-chalky. You can find affordable power in this lineup with newcomers Joey Gallo ($3,500) and Jesse Winker ($2,800), while we saw consistent upside from CJ Abrams ($4,600) as a dynamic power/speed player toward the end of last season. Keibert Ruiz ($3,700) is also a perfectly acceptable way to fill that pesky catcher spot.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 1:15 PM ET.
Good luck on Opening Day!
Image Credit: Getty Images