MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/4/2022
Happy Star Wars Day and May the 4th be with you on this seven-game slate!
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Coors field has ~10mph winds blowing in with cold temps and light rain but early models have most of it holding just west of Denver so for now this game should play. MIN/BAL & LAA/BOS are in similar spots with rain likely tapering by first pitch but there is potential for late starts in each with a slight breeze blowing in for both. SFG/LAD will have a slight breeze blowing out while CHW/CHC will have ~8mph winds blowing in and NYY/TOR & CIN/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHW/CHC are -48.7% while total runs for LAA/BOS are -16.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Reds are losing guys left and right with Joey Votto now on the COVID-IL joining India and Fraley on the regular IL but they did get back Tyler Stephenson from the 7-day concussion IL but that isn’t enough to not make Freddy Peralta my favorite pitcher today for under $9k on both sites. The Giants could get both Joc Pederson and Mike Yastrzemski back in the lineup today while LaMonte Wade is close but not ready yet while recently activated Garrett Hampson has a good shot of making the lineup against the lefty Corbin in Coors (update: Hampson is actually still out tonight). The Red Sox haven’t faced a lefty in a while so we should see Christian Arroyo and Bobby Dalbec in there while Buxton and Kepler are getting the day off.
The Rockies and Yankees are my top stacks today especially on FanDuel where Giancarlo Stanton is still just $3,300 while the Brewers are right behind them as a top stack and are much more affordable too. The Nationals are still a fine stack too but have a tougher matchup against Gomber who’s coming off two great starts so I prefer to pick and choose a couple Nats depending on positional needs but Maikel Franco for $3k on DK and Nelson Cruz for $3k on FD are my initial favorite plays for the price (update – Cruz is OUT today). Boston is also looking like a strong stack against the lefty Detmers and any team outside of Coors should be lower-owned than usual.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel it’s going to be hard to fade Nelson Cruz for $3k against the lefty Gomber but he has been super cold of late so I don’t blame you if you look elsewhere (update – Cruz is OUT) while Rowdy Tellez for $2,500 is the first value bat I’m locking in against Gutierrez with two HR’s in his last three games. Kolten Wong for $2,600 is also looking like a top value play as he’s been extremely productive from the leadoff spot including three stolen bases in his last six games. If you’re locking those two Brewers in I think you might as well include Christian Yelich for $3,300 and either Willy Adames ($3,500) or Andrew McCutchen ($2,800) depending on positional needs to complete the stack. I think we need some Yankees in our main build and I love the prices of Giancarlo Stanton ($3,300) and Josh Donaldson ($3,300) while Aaron Judge ($4,600) is the hottest hitter in baseball and his price is going for be over $5k any day now. The Rockies look to be a bit too expensive to stack in cash but I’m going to try to get in C.J. Cron ($4,000) while Juan Soto for $4k should still be a popular play even going against a lefty but isn’t a must play for me. Other FD bats I’m liking for the price include Luis Arraez ($2,500), Trevor Larnach ($2,400), Jose Miranda ($2,000), Yasmani Grandal ($2,400), and Brendan Rodgers ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Nelson Cruz is still at a solid price for $4k (update – Cruz is OUT) and the Brewers are a bit more expensive than FD but I still like Wong ($4,100), Yelich ($4,200), and Tellez ($3,900). The Yankees are a lot more expensive than FD especially Aaron Judge at $5,900 but I still think Stanton ($4,600) and Donaldson ($4,300) are very solid plays for the price. The Rockies are super expensive especially Joe and Cron both over $5.5k so Brendan Rodgers ($3,500) is my favorite play for the price while Yonathan Daza at ($2,300) is a decent value play although he’s hitting 8th. I mentioned Cruz already but Maikel Franco for $3,000 likely hitting 5th is my favorite way to get some Nats exposure while Josh Bell ($4,600) and Cesar Hernandez ($3,900) are both very affordable too. Some more cheap DK bats I’m considering are Jose Miranda ($2,000), Trevor Larnach ($2,500), Gavin Sheets ($3,500), and Lane Thomas ($2,500).
Freddy Peralta is my favorite pitcher on both sites under $9k while Lucas Giolito is a close 2nd at a slightly higher price. Dylan Bundy and Nestor Cortes are my favorite GPP plays and Austin Gomber for $6,700 on DK is my long-shot extremely low-owned GPP play.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn