MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/17/2022
To end the week off we have an 11-game main slate on FD and a 12-game main on DK as they are including game 2 of the PHI/WSH doubleheader.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
As if Coors field wasn’t already a great hitting environment it’s going to be around 90 degrees at first pitch with 10-15mph winds blowing out to center. SFG/PIT, STL/BOS, MIA/NYM, and TEX/DET will all be great hitting environments as well looking at humid temps in the high 70s to mid 80s and 10-15mph winds blowing out in all three. KCR/OAK & CLE/LAD will have temps in the low 60’s but still pretty humid conditions with 5-10mph wind out to center and the dome games are LAA/SEA, MIN/ARI, CHW/HOU, & NYY/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SDP/COL are +28.1% while total runs for SFG/PIT are +10.7%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Starling Marte is back in the lineup tonight after he missed one game and then pinch-ran yesterday but Jorge Polanco is headed to the IL so look for Arraez to get most of the 2B starts. JP Crawford returned yesterday at the leadoff spot and is expected to remain there for now and Ty France should be back in there after getting a breather yesterday. Bo Bichette is getting a day off so Santiago Espinal moves up to 2nd and Anthony Rendon will undergo season-ending wrist surgery so Duffy and Wade will handle the 3B spot for now.
The top stack is pretty easy today as the Padres are in the best hitting conditions possible in Coors field against a very average lefty in Freeland who hasn’t had more than 3 strikeouts in his last three starts with 8 ERs allowed in that span. The Rockies have a tougher matchup against Gore but are still a stack to target as they just crushed Gore in San Diego six days ago scoring 6 runs off of him. On DK I love the Phillies stack in game 2 of the doubleheader as hitting conditions will be fantastic and they already have a team total around 6 against Espino and the Nationals righties are very cheap against the lefty Falter making them a pretty sneaky stack. There are a lot of really strong pitchers going today and offenses I’d usually be all over in great hitting weather are making me a bit weary if they’re facing a pitcher that can keep them quiet but a few more stacks I like against pitchers that don’t scare me are the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Mets.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to jam in Manny Machado ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($3,600) as the highest upside plays on my favorite stack as they just aren’t priced high enough for this matchup and these great hitting conditions in Coors. The catcher spot for SD will be another good way to get cheap exposure as Austin Nola ($2,900) and Jorge Alfaro ($2,500) are super cheap so whoever starts is a fine value option. On the other side of that game I love the price of Connor Joe ($3,000) hitting leadoff with six hits over his last ten ABs while Brendan Rodgers ($3,200) and Yonathan Daza ($2,900) are my next favorite Rockies for the price and CJ Cron ($4,000) can always be a slate-winner in Coors if you can fit him. Max Muncy has been on a mini-slump since his big game eight days ago and he’s down to $2,600 but he should keep hitting clean-up in a top offense and he’s my favorite way to get Dodgers exposure. For some strange reason FD lowered Aaron Judge salary $1,000 down to $3,600 and I can’t fade him at that price no matter the matchup and on the other side of that game Teoscar Hernandez is still just $2,700 but has a pretty tough matchup against Montgomery. If Jordan Luplow hits leadoff today I like him a lot at $2,400 against the lefty Smeltzer and although Wainwright is a solid pitcher I still like Jarren Duran ($2,500) if he continues to hit leadoff for BOS. More FD bats to consider for the price include Mike Yastrzemski ($3,000), Christian Walker ($3,000), Brendan Donovan ($2,800), Ramon Laureano ($2,600), Gio Urshela ($2,300), Gary Sanchez ($2,600), and Jose Miranda ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I can’t explain the price gap between Manny Machado ($6,100) and Luke Voit ($3,800) but Voit is laughably cheap and is the first guy I’m locking in and I will try to fit Machado in at that price but may end up saving salary at 3B if I like my overall team without him. For the Rockies Yonathan Daza is by far my favorite play for the price at just $3,200 with Brendan Rodgers a close second at $4,200. There’s a group of really cheap leadoff hitters I like in Lane Thomas ($3,200), Luis Gonzalez ($3,000), Jarren Duran ($3,100), and Brandon Nimmo ($3,700) but my favorite leadoff hitter today is Kyle Schwarber at $4,600 assuming he starts game 2 of the doubleheader. Some other cheap DK bats I really like are Nelson Cruz ($4,000), Brendan Donovan ($3,200), Tyler ONeill ($3,600), Gio Urshela ($3,700), Jose Miranda ($3,200), and Carson Kelly ($3,100).
There are a lot of really good pitchers going today but I like the matchup for Carlos Rodon the best and he’s my SP1 on both sites but if you need the extra salary on FD then I’d go with Tarik Skubal or Carlos Carrasco. On DK I can’t ignore the price of Jon Gray at $6,900 going against Detroit with 10 strikeout upside as he’s done twice in his last three starts and he will be my SP2. Other pitchers I really like are Frankie Montas, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Framber Valdez, and for really cheap I don’t mind taking a shot on Daniel Lynch against OAK.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn