MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/2/2022
Today we have pretty different main slates on FD and DK with FD including the two 6:40pm games but not game 2 of LAA/NYY for 7 total games while DK’s main slate starts at 7:05pm and does include game 2 of LAA/NYY for 6 total games.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have rain to worry about in New York and Baltimore and at the moment SEA/BAL is looking more iffy than game 2 of LAA/NYY. Hopefully we learn the status of SEA/BAL before either main slate locks but at the moment I am looking to fade this game with plenty of safe weather games available and on DK I probably won’t use anyone in LAA/NYY game 2 with pretty good pitching on both sides and the unknowns of how late rain will affect the game.
Wind shouldn’t be much of a factor anywhere with no games seeing more than 10mph winds in any direction while SFG/MIA & SDP/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for STL/CHC are -33.2% while total runs for ATL/COL are +8.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Cody Bellinger should be back in the lineup today along with Tommy Pham after being late-scratched yesterday. With Brian Anderson and Joey Wendle on the IL now we should see Luke Williams get plenty of starts at 3B especially against lefties like today while Jon Berti likely hits leadoff and Jazz Chisholm / Jesus Sanchez could get a breather if Miami goes full righty stack. The Padres are done with Robinson Cano so look for Cronenworth & Kim to get most of the 2B/SS starts now and Nomar Mazara was just called up and is hitting 6th tonight and is just $2,000 on DK. Lastly Ronald Acuna is taking every start day-to-day but hopefully he is back in there today in Coors and he should be one of the most popular plays of the day.
We have a pretty clear top stack today in the Braves as they get Austin Gomber in Coors and currently have a 6.3 team total and are pretty affordable on both sites especially DK where five of their main starters are under $5k. The Rockies are also in a nice spot against Ian Anderson who has given up 8 ER over his last 2 starts making them my 2nd favorite stack while the Dodgers and Reds (FD only) are my favorite stacks outside of Coors both sitting at team totals over 5 currently.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Joey Votto is still just $2,500 and after an 0-for-4 game yesterday his ownership may drop a bit but I will still be all over him at that price at home against Joan Adon who has had just one game over 3 strikeouts in his last four starts with 11 total walks in that span. Nick Senzel ($2,500) and Tommy Pham ($3,000) are my next favorite Reds for the price if you want a very affordable mini-stack with big upside. On the other side of that game I love the prices of Nelson Cruz ($3,000) and Josh Bell ($3,100) and Juan Soto ($3,800) being under $4k is just wrong in a great hitters park. I like the prices of Edwin Rios ($2,600) and Justin Turner ($3,100) for cheap Dodgers exposure and Betts/Freeman/Trea should all be lower-owned than usual with so much exposure going to ATL today. Speaking of ATL I will try to fit in as many of them as possible in cash games and by priority I’ll rank them as Acuna, Riley, Ozuna, Albies, Swanson, Olson, and d’Arnaud. Some other FD bats I like for the price are Jon Berti ($2,200), Miguel Rojas ($2,300), Luke Voit ($2,700), Frank Schwindel ($2,800), and Brandon Nimmo ($3,100).
Looking at DraftKings I’m really hoping Nolan Gorman is able to return for STL as he’s just $2,600 and would be my top value play if available (update: Gorman is OUT still). Nomar Mazara replaced Cano on the Padres roster and is hitting 6th tonight and is a really solid value play for just $2,000 and he’ll allow you to fit in more Braves bats. Ronald Acuna is expensive at $5,900 and not a priority for me on DK today especially because Riley, Ozuna, Swanson, Olson, and d’Arnaud are all under $4,800 and if you want to go super cheap Guillermo Heredia ($2,000) and Michael Harris ($2,500) are hitting 8th and 9th today. I really like the prices of Charlie Blackmon ($4,600) and Ryan McMahon ($4,600) for Rockies exposure and I think Christopher Morel for the Cubs is still a bit too cheap at $3,700 with his SB/HR upside and Frank Schwindel is a fine value play at just $3,300 with the platoon advantage. More DK bats to consider include Luke Voit ($2,800), Brendan Rodgers ($3,900), and Edwin Rios ($3,900).
On FD I’m locking in Sandy Alcantara as my SP1 as his upside is just way higher than any pitcher going today as shown by his 8 IP / 1 ER / 14 K dominance of the Braves in his last start. On DK I’ll probably use Sean Manaea and Tony Gonsolin as my SPs but I’m still considering going with Matthew Liberatore over Gonsolin as his price lets you fit in some higher-priced bats and the Mets have been on fire lately making Gonsolin just a bit riskier.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn