MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/23/2022
We have the earliest “main slate” of the year starting at 12:10pm EST on both sites with 6 games on DK and 7 games on FD as they are including the SEA/OAK game at 3:10.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain to worry about anywhere and the best hitting weather is in SFG/ATL which will see 10-13mph winds out to center with temps in the mid 90s. LAD/CIN, CHC/PIT & SEA/OAK will all see ~8mph wind blowing out with temps in the mid 80s while CLE/MIN will be very hot with temps in the low 90s and wind blowing ~12mph from right to left. COL/MIA & STL/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CLE/MIN are -28.2% while total runs for SEA/OAK are +22%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Luis Gonzalez was a late scratch yesterday with back tightness and is headed to the IL while Brandon Crawford had a clean MRI on his knee but will need at least another game off along with Austin Riley for Atlanta who also missed yesterday and Buxton for MIN. After getting days off yesterday look for Christopher Morel, KeBryan Hayes, Franmil Reyes, and Willy Adames to all be back in the starting lineups while Ronald Acuna, Adam Duvall, Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, Hunter Renfroe, Harrison Bader, Charlie Blackmon, and Randal Grichuk are getting breathers today.
I probably won’t be going too stack heavy today but we have a few teams with high totals right now in the Braves, Dodgers, Twins, Guardians, Cardinals, Brewers, and Marlins. They don’t have the highest projected team total right now but I actually like the Cardinals as the best stack today going against the righty Alexander who hasn’t struck out more than 3 batters in any of his four starts with at least 7 hits allowed in all four of those starts. They have a nice mix of expensive and cheap salary options as well so the stack will still allow you to fit in top pitching. After STL I’m liking the Guardians and Braves stacks both going against mediocre lefties in Smeltzer and Wood and for their respective salaries I prefer the Guardians and would recommend using at least a couple of their value bats in any format. The Cubs don’t have a big team total right now but I still like them for GPPs in nice hitting conditions and cheap salaries.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m spending up on Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100) and Nolan Arenado ($3,700) who both homered yesterday and I think at least one of them homers again today against Alexander and for value on STL I really like the price of Nolan Gorman ($3,000). CLE has some really nice value in Amed Rosario ($2,700), Franmil Reyes ($2,500), and Oscar Gonzalez ($2,800) and are one of my favorite cheap trios on both sites. With the platoon advantage and cheap salary I’m finding it hard to not get Jorge Soler ($2,800) in my main build against the lefty Freeland while some other guys I’m considering for the price are Max Muncy ($2,600), Max Kepler ($2,500), Alex Kirilloff ($2,400), Patrick Wisdom ($2,600), and Christian Yelich ($3,100).
Looking at DraftKings I’m still spending up on Goldschmidt ($5,400) and Arenado ($5,200) and Gorman ($3,600) is just too cheap to not use to complete the STL mini-stack. I’m also going back to Rosario ($4,600), Reyes ($2,800), and Gonzalez ($3,400) for the mini CLE stack and at catcher I will use either Willson Contreras ($5,000) or Travis d’Arnaud ($4,300) and I’m leaning d’Arnaud as he’s cheaper and hitting 2nd today. More DK bats I like include Jorge Soler ($4,100), Marcell Ozuna ($4,000), Jesus Aguilar ($2,600), Patrick Wisdom ($3,600), Ian Happ ($3,500), Diego Castillo ($2,500), Yonathan Daza ($3,300), Alex Kirilloff ($2,500), and Dylan Carlson ($2,700).
On FanDuel I’m going with Robbie Ray as my cash game pitcher in an excellent matchup with OAK and on DK where Ray isn’t on the main slate I’m going with Kyle Wright as my SP1. SP2 is a bit tougher as Kershaw is super expensive and hasn’t really paid off his price the last couple starts so I’ll probably go cheaper with either Steele or Plesac.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn