MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/11/22
The DraftKings main slate will feature eight games, including Game 2 of the DET/KCR doubleheader, while FanDuel won’t offer it and have just seven games tonight.
This is a daily, weekday MLB article, which can hopefully show you some new RotoGrinders tools, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on them.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate, so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
All games look good to go today and we have more excellent hitting conditions in a few spots. PHI/STL is looking at temps in the low to mid 90s, with a slight breeze blowing out, while CHW/CLE will have temps in the mid to high 80s with about 10mph winds out to right. NYM/ATL & G2 of DET/KCR will see temps in the 80s with slight breezes blowing in from left and Coors field should be beautiful weather with temps in the high 70s and about 7mph winds blowing out to left-center. The dome games today are BOS/TBR and OAK/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for PHI/STL are +20.6% while total runs for CHW/CLE are +12%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Starling Marte is dealing with groin tightness and will be out today and Rafael Devers will need at least another game before returning from his back injury. CJ Cron and Jose Iglesias are back in the lineup for the Rockies while Kris Bryant is heading to the paternity list and is out for a few days. Wander Franco and Kevin Kiermaier are on the IL for the Rays now while Corey Dickerson and Luis Gonzalez recently came off the IL for STL and SF. Jeff McNeil was placed on the paternity list and will be out a few days and Mitch Garver is set to have season-ending surgery on his arm. The Braves have selected Robinson Cano to the major league roster starting him at 2B and hitting 9th tonight.
There’s a lot of solid pitching going today so I’m not loving many stacks but the Padres in Coors field against Urena is the clear top stack of the day and most of their bats are underpriced for this spot. I usually wouldn’t target a stack against Manaea but he has been very hittable lately with 14 ER over his last four starts so the Rockies are my next favorite stack. After the Coors field teams I like the Rangers and White Sox as high-upside stacks and I also like taking a shot on the Red Sox, Rays, and Guardians.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Manny Machado ($4,400) and Jake Cronenworth ($3,800) and to fill out my favorite stack I will definitely use Trent Grisham ($3,100) assuming he hits leadoff today while Luke Voit ($3,200), Eric Hosmer ($3,000), and Nomar Mazara ($2,900) are all fine options for the full stack depending on positional needs. My favorite Rockies bat today is Randal Grichuk for just $2,800 and I also like the price of Jose Iglesias ($2,900) hitting 5th today. For Texas Josh Smith is looking like a top value play hitting leadoff for $2,600 and for the White Sox I like the cheap combo of Gavin Sheets ($2,600) and Eloy Jimenez ($3,100). More value FD bats to consider today include Steven Kwan ($2,500), Andres Gimenez ($2,800), Nolan Jones ($2,600), Joc Pederson ($2,800), Jonathan Aranda ($2,200), Josh Lowe ($2,300), Yoan Moncada ($2,300), Ramon Laureano ($3,000), and Seth Brown ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I’m expecting Trent Grisham to be one of the highest owned bats at just $2,900 along with Eric Hosmer at $2,100 as both make it very easy to fit in Manny Machado ($4,900) and Jake Cronenworth ($4,100) and Nomar Mazara is also minimum price making for an extremely affordable full stack. Most of the Rockies are priced up accordingly with Grichuk ($3,800) still being my favorite play along with Jose Iglesias ($3,500) while Josh Smith ($3,200), Gavin Sheets ($2,800), and Eloy Jimenez ($3,800) remain some of my favorite value plays. We also have game 2 of the DET/KCR doubleheader to use and a few cheap bats I like in that game include Spencer Torkelson ($2,200), Robbie Grossman ($2,700), Jonathan Schoop ($2,900), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,700), and Hunter Dozier ($3,200). Other bats on DK I like for the price are LaMonte Wade ($2,400), Luis Gonzalez ($2,300), Jonathan Aranda ($2,000), Josh Lowe ($2,300), Nolan Jones ($2,000), Vimael Machin ($2,300), Yoan Moncada ($3,000), Steven Kwan ($3,400), and Franmil Reyes ($3,400).
Max Scherzer, Max Fried, and Aaron Nola are the clear top SP options today and just on pure upside I think Scherzer will be my SP1 on both sites. For GPPs I like taking shots on Brayan Bello, Miles Mikolas, Merrill Kelly, and Alex Cobb.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn