MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/14/22
We have an 11-game slate today and great weather across the country with no rain concerns.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CIN/NYY is the only game with even a hint of rain but it shouldn’t be enough to cause any issues or delays. The best hitting weather game is LAD/STL seeing temps in the high 80s to low 90s while CIN/NYY, ATL/WSH, and CHW/MIN will all see temps in the mid 80s. DET/CLE & NYM/CHC will see temps in the low 70s with wind blowing in and the dome games today are KCR/TOR, BOS/TBR, and SEA/TEX.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for LAD/STL are +25.4% while total runs for CHW/MIN are +21.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The biggest lineup news of the day is with the Royals who will be without Whit Merrifield, MJ Melendez, Hunter Dozier, Andrew Benintendi, Kyle Isbel, Michael Taylor, and Cam Gallagher as all are unvaccinated and can’t play in Toronto. This leaves Witt, Pasquantino, Olivares, O’Hearn, Rivera, and Lopez as the bats available before we learn who is being called up as replacements but overall this will be a very watered down Royals lineup making Kevin Gausman a very appealing SP option. Aaron Hicks, Trevor Story, Christian Yelich and Mike Trout are all likely out again today with their respective injuries and Eloy Jimenez left yesterday’s game early with leg tightness so I wouldn’t expect to see him available today either. The Mets are hoping to get back Jeff McNeil from the paternity list and Starling Marte from his groin injury today and the Cardinals could get Tyler ONeill back from the IL as well.
The Braves and Blue Jays are my top stack options today as ATL will be in some of the best hitting weather of the slate against Anibal Sanchez who is making his first start of the season and TOR will be facing a Royals bullpen game which is nothing to fear. I also really like the Guardians at home against Elvin Rodriguez making his first start in the majors in over a month and his last two starts were about as bad as it gets with 18 total ER and 7 HRs allowed. LAD and HOU are my next favorite stacks and I also like taking a shot on MIN, TEX, and NYY.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to try to fit the maximum four Braves with Matt Olson being my favorite option at $3,700 and for value I love the prices of Eddie Rosario ($2,500) coming off a big game with a double and HR and Marcell Ozuna ($3,100). Austin Riley ($4,100) is swinging a hot bat but Ronald Acuna ($4,300) has the SB upside so I’d try to fit both over Ozuna but if you don’t have the salary go with the one that fits your positional needs. For Toronto I’m looking at Teoscar Hernandez at just $3,200 coming off a multi-HR game and Bo Bichette at $3,500 who has six hits over his last three games while Springer and Vlad are of course great options as well if you have the salary. Some of my favorite value today comes from CLE with guys like Steven Kwan ($2,500), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Franmil Reyes ($3,200), and Andres Gimenez ($2,800) all being solid plays to choose from depending on positional needs and from LAD I’d consider Justin Turner ($2,900), Cody Bellinger ($2,600), or Max Muncy ($2,600) if you need more value options. More FD bats I like for the price include Max Kepler ($2,700), Alex Kirilloff ($2,500), Tyler ONeill ($2,700), Yulieski Gurriel ($2,800), Aledmys Diaz ($2,200), Alejandro Kirk ($2,900), and Yoan Moncada ($2,300).
Looking at DraftKings Matt Olson remains my favorite overall play at just $4,500 while Eddie Rosario remains my favorite value from ATL at $3,400. For the Jays I still really like Teoscar Hernandez at $4,200 while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is my next favorite option for the price at $4,900. The Guardians still offer a lot of value with Nolan Jones ($2,000) being my favorite option at minimum price while Kwan, Naylor, Reyes, and Gimenez are all in play under $4k depending on positional needs. Other value options to consider are Jonathan India ($3,300), Cody Bellinger ($3,600), Tyler ONeill ($3,800), Tommy Edman ($3,300), Yoan Moncada ($3,300), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,600), Alex Kirilloff ($3,200), and Aledmys Diaz ($3,200).
Pitching is pretty loaded today with great options at all price levels but on FD I’m almost certainly going with Corbin Burnes or Carlos Rodon in cash games with Burnes getting the slight edge for me. DraftKings is going to be tougher as there are so many guys that are too cheap for their matchup and upside today but for the price I think Carlos Rodon is my favorite option at $9,300. Gausman gets a watered-down KC lineup at just $8.6k and McKenzie has a nice matchup with DET for just $8.3k while Keegan Thompson has been excellent lately and is just $5.8k and even Kutter Crawford is looking like a solid option for just $6.8k against TB so we should see ownership numbers pretty spread out and right now I’m really considering Thompson at that crazy low price for my SP2. I haven’t even mentioned Nestor Cortes, Kyle Wright, or Framber Valdez who are all in play for GPPs at likely very low ownership.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn