MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/15/22
Big 13-game slate to end the week with just one rain spot to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
PIT/COL is the only game with potential rain but at worst it would just be a delayed start so not a lot to worry about here unless models change to having rain later in the night which isn’t the case right now. CIN/STL is the hottest game of the day with temps in the mid to high 80s while BOS/NYY, ATL/WSH, & CHW/MIN will see temps in the high 70s to low 80s. The dome games today are OAK/HOU, SEA/TEX, BAL/TBR, and KCR/TOR.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for MIL/SFG are +12% while total runs for PIT/COL are +7.6%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Josh Donaldson was hit by a pitch on his right hand yesterday and is likely out today while Trevor Story is likely still out until we hear any positive news. The Royals are still missing half of their starting lineup in Toronto but we could see some guys return from injury in Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Jurickson Profar. For now we likely wont see Eloy Jimenez, JP Crawford, or Wilmer Flores today with various injuries that kept them out of the lineup yesterday (although Flores did pinch-hit yesterday) and we definitely won’t see Mike Moustakas who landed on the IL yesterday. The Astros will likely rest a few guys today after arriving in Houston very late last night with Jose Altuve confirmed out already.
The Rockies are my top stack today in Coors against the lefty Quintana while the Pirates are really cheap on both sites but are more of a GPP stack for me against Marquez but I still like using some of their cheap bats to fill in positional needs. The Guardians are my next favorite stack at home against Hutchison who is a very low strikeout guy with the Blue Jays close behind them facing another low strikeout guy in Greinke. The Braves remain a top stack option in great hitting conditions against the lefty Corbin and although Hunter Greene has shown flashes of dominance he can still get blown up making the Cardinals a decent stack option in the best hitting weather of the day.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m locking in my favorite value play of the day in Joey Votto at just $2,500 hitting in excellent conditions against a mediocre righty and if you want more bats from that game I like the prices of Jonathan India ($2,700), Tommy Pham ($2,800), Tommy Edman ($2,600), Dylan Carlson ($2,400), Nolan Gorman ($2,700), and Tyler ONeill ($2,700). For the Rockies my favorite bat for the price is Jose Iglesias at just $2,900 as he’s on a six game hitting streak and has the platoon advantage today.. The Guardians also have a lot of value in Steven Kwan ($2,500), Amed Rosario ($2,900), and Andres Gimenez ($2,800) and for the Astros I like the value of Mauricio Dubon ($2,100) and Jake Meyers ($2,900). Some other value FD bats to consider include Gleyber Torres ($3,000), Adam Duvall ($2,600), Marcell Ozuna ($3,200), Alejandro Kirk ($2,900), Josh Naylor ($3,200), Yoan Moncada ($2,300), Max Kepler ($2,700), Josh VanMeter ($2,600), and Ben Gamel ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings Joey Votto remains my top overall play at just $3,200 and Jonathan India will be hard to fade at the same price of $3,200. Jose Iglesias remains my favorite Rockies bat at $3,700 and the Cardinals group of Edman, Carlson, Gorman, and ONeill are all still in play with all under $3.6k. The Guardians also have a group of cheap options in Kwan, Naylor, and Gimenez all under $3.9k while Nolan Jones is still a solid minimum price option and for the Astros Dubon and Meyers remain solid value plays hitting 1st and 2nd tonight. For the Pirates I love the price of Josh VanMeter ($2,900) if he hits leadoff while Daniel Vogelbach ($3,400) and Ben Gamel ($3,100) are other cheap options to consider. More DK bats I like for the price are Yoan Moncada ($3,300), Alex Kirilloff ($3,000), Jorge Alfaro ($3,700), Rob Refsnyder ($3,300), Adam Duvall ($3,400), and Kyle Farmer ($2,700).
I’m still debating my SP1 but it’s between Brandon Woodruff and Alek Manoah while Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, and Robbie Ray are close behind as top SP2 options. For GPPs I like taking a shot on Jose Urquidy, Alex Wood, Jordan Montgomery, and Zach Plesac.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn