MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/5/22
We have a big 12-game slate today and a number of weather issues to monitor.
This is a daily, weekday MLB article, which can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
MIN/CHW is the riskiest game of the night with some level of rain pretty much all night so it depends if it ever becomes light rain and they decide to play through it after a likely delayed start and there is certainly a chance of early postponement. TBR/BOS is going to have off and on light showers that will get heavier after the game so either they decide to play through a little wetness or just PPD it so there is some risk in taking players if that late heavy rain arrives early than expected. NYY/PIT, WAS/PHI, TEX/BAL, CLE/DET, and STL/ATL all have chances of delays at some point so make sure to check how they look closer to lock. Almost every game will see temps in the high 70s to mid 80s and the dome games today are KCR/HOU, CHC/MIL, & SFG/ARI.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for WSH/PHI are +52.5% while total runs for TBR/BOS are +12.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Pirates are getting back both Yoshi Tsutsugo and Ben Gamel and both are in the starting lineup today along with SF getting Brandon Crawford back but Juan Soto will remain out with calf tightness. Didi Gregorius got an injection in his knee for lingering discomfort and will be out again today and Willson Contreras left yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness and will sit today. The Cardinals are shaking up their lineup a bit with Tommy Edman falling to the 7-hole, Brendan Donovan hitting leadoff, and Juan Yepez sliding in to the 2-hole. Guys getting days off today include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Ji-Man Choi, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Naylor, Christopher Morel, Travis d’Arnaud, and Javier Baez. Nelson Cruz and Anthony Rizzo we’re scratched from the starting lineups too.
My top stack today are the Phillies at home in great hitting conditions as they are very affordable on both sites and are facing a pitcher in Espino who has allowed four HR over his last three starts with 7 ER, 6 walks, and 14 hits allowed over that span. The Braves are expensive on both sites but remain a favorite stack while the Dodgers are in another great spot at home against Marquez with a few of their top bats looking very affordable on both sites. The Yankees, Astros, and Blue Jays are all in my top stack options today and lower-owned GPP stacks I like include the Giants, Cubs, Cardinals, Orioles, and Guardians.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with a few value plays under $3,000 that are standing out to me with Max Muncy ($2,700), Nick Castellanos ($2,800), Josh Donaldson ($2,500), and Franmil Reyes ($2,500). All are hitting in great conditions against mediocre pitching so I will be using 3-4 of these bats and likely a teammate or two from the ones I go with. There are also a lot of guys in the $3k-$3.3k range I will pick and choose from depending on positional needs in Corey Seager ($3,200), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), Seiya Suzuki ($3,000), Alex Bregman ($3,100), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,200) all with big HR upside today. If you need even more value to choose from I’d consider Darick Hall ($2,900), Josh Smith ($2,300), Adley Rutschman ($2,500), Steven Kwan ($2,200), Ramon Laureano ($2,800), Brendan Donovan ($2,700), Juan Yepez ($2,600), Nico Hoerner ($2,600), Austin Slater ($2,500), and Darin Ruf ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings I still really like the salaries of Muncy, Castellanos, and Donaldson but Franmil Reyes at $3,200 is my favorite for the price of the first four I mentioned on FD. Darick Hall is also standing out on DK at just $2,700 hitting cleanup on my favorite stack of the day and although I won’t be stacking the Tigers they have the most value by far of any team on DK with Riley Greene ($2,500) being my favorite play. I have to mention Mookie Betts again as he is just $4,400 today and will likely be over $5k by the end of the week and also in that price range is Matt Olson at $4,600 who is by far my favorite ATL bat to target. More DK value I like includes Austin Slater ($3,100), Darin Ruf ($3,100), Jordan Luplow ($2,100), Carson Kelly ($2,000), Lane Thomas ($3,200), Juan Yepez ($3,800), and Ramon Laureano ($3,800).
I’m really considering Yusei Kikuchi in cash games on both sites as he’s under $8k with a great matchup against Oakland and I’m not super confident in the high-priced pitching options today although there is risk he’ll only get around 80 pitches. Factoring in weather risk and matchup Luis Garcia is my favorite option of the expensive pitchers and will likely be my other SP with Kikuchi on DK. Other pitchers I don’t mind taking a shot on in GPP’s include Pivetta, Taillon, Wood, and Hendricks.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn