MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/26/22
13 games on today’s main slate with just a couple low-risk rain spots to monitor and a nice mix of aces to choose from along with strong offenses facing weak pitching and it’s always a wild slate when Coors field is in play.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TBR/BAL could change closer to lock but for now it’s likely to play after a potential late start while LAA/KCR should start on time but the longer it plays the more risk of rain getting heavier causing a delay or early ending. ATL/PHI & CHW/COL both have very low chances of rain causing any problems but there is still a chance of light rain in the general area landing over the stadium at some point but hopefully it’s not strong enough to cause any issues.
ATL/PHI, TBR/BAL, CLE/BOS, SDP/DET, CHW/COL, and NYY/NYM will all see temps in the 75-80 degree range and the dome games today are STL/TOR, MIN/MIL, SFG/ARI, and TEX/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYY/NYM are +20.8% while total runs for ATL/PHI are +14.1%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The biggest lineup news is with STL who will be without Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado who are unvaccinated and can’t play in Toronto so Edman and Pujols will hit higher in the order. The Red Sox will get back JD Martinez and the Twins will get Byron Buxton back along with Miguel Sano who is off the 60-day IL and will start today while Seattle is getting Julio Rodriguez and Jesse Winker back in the lineup today. The Rockies are dealing with a handful of injuries with Jose Iglesias fouling a ball off his foot and leaving early yesterday, Kris Bryant dealing with foot discomfort, and Connor Joe “beaten up” after diving for a ball Sunday so it’s pretty likely at least one or two of them will be out today. Other news of note includes Giancarlo Stanton heading to the IL, Justin Turner having a shot to return either today or tomorrow, Seth Brown remaining out on the paternity list, Bobby Witt still out with his hamstring tightness, and Victor Robles moving to the leadoff spot for the foreseeable future for the Nationals.
I’m expecting the White Sox to be a popular stack today in Coors field and I will almost certainly use a few of their bats in my cash team but my favorite stack today is the Blue Jays at home against Pallante who has allowed 25 hits, 3 HRs, and 13 ERs over his last three starts. The Dodgers were terrible yesterday scoring just 1 run so recency bias and the tougher matchup against Gray should lower their ownership which makes them an even more appealing stack today. The Rockies should be a pretty low-owned stack today with so many other great options and the matchup with Kopech so I like them a lot for GPPs along with the Giants against the low strikeout lefty Gilbert. Other stacks I like today include BOS, SDP, MIN, MIL, and SEA.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to try to fit at least two of Springer, Guerrero, Bichette, Hernandez, and Gurriel and the White Sox have a couple bats that are just way too cheap for Coors field in Yasmani Grandal ($3,000) and Eloy Jimenez ($2,700) while Yoan Moncada is also a bit underpriced at $3,400. For the Dodgers I’m going right back to Max Muncy ($2,400) and Jake Lamb ($2,200) for value assuming they hit 5th and 6th again while Christian Yelich ($3,100) and Rowdy Tellez ($2,800) remain at prices that make both extremely hard to fade in cash games. The Twins and Giants are also loaded with value facing lefties with blow up potential in Carlos Correa ($2,900), Kyle Garlick ($2,100), Jose Miranda ($2,300), Austin Slater ($2,500), Darin Ruf ($2,600), Yermin Mercedes ($2,300), and Thairo Estrada ($2,500). More FD value I like today includes Jesse Winker ($2,300), Will Smith ($3,000), Victor Robles ($2,100), Brandon Lowe ($3,000), Jurickson Profar ($2,700), Whit Merrifield ($2,700), and Taylor Ward ($2,900).
Looking at DraftKings I’m again starting with Jake Lamb if he hits 5th or 6th at just $2,200 and Yermin Mercedes is another great option at $2k if he hits high in the order. Victor Robles ($2,000) has been off the DFS radar for a while but now that he’s getting a chance at the leadoff spot he is definitely in play at minimum price and another outfielder at minimum price to consider is Michael Taylor with seven hits over his last five games. Guerrero ($5.1k), Hernandez ($4.5k) and Gurriel ($3,800) are my favorite TOR bats to target along with Cavan Biggio ($2,400) although he’s hitting 9th today. Grandal ($3,800), Jimenez ($3,900) and Moncada ($4,000) remain my favorite White Sox bats for the price and along with Mercedes I really like the prices of Slater ($3,300) and Ruf ($3,200) on SF. Some other DK bats to consider are Bobby Dalbec ($2,500), Jurickson Profar ($3,800), Kyle Garlick ($3,000), Jo Adell ($2,200), Hunter Dozier ($3,100), Luke Raley ($2,000), and Jesse Winker ($3,700).
My SP1 on both sites is Shane McClanahan but if you need the salary savings on FD I don’t mind using Strider or Berrios in cash games for over $2k cheaper. On DK I’m between Strider ($8.7k) and Berrios ($7.9k) for my SP2 but I’m giving the slight edge to Berrios as he’s cheaper, has a better chance at run support and the W, and gets a watered down STL lineup with no Goldschmidt or Arenado. Other pitchers I like on both sites include Nola, Rodon, Clevinger, and Garcia.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn