MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-08-02 12:12:17

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Detroit					Baltimore
			Buck Farmer					Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-159)					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.400	1.170	0.501	23.7%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.671	0.295	17.40%
SP vs. Right	0.273	0.000	0.409	17.3%	SP vs. Right	0.252	0.742	0.323	18.60%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L		Batter Splits			BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Buck Farmer : FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 3.85 — ERA: 10.17 — K%: 20.7% — BB%: 8.1% — HR/9: 2.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 3.1 — SIERA: 2.75 — ERA: 5.40 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 2.7

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Farmer will be making his third start of the season tonight, but his first two starts is too small of a sample size, so let’s take a look at his numbers in the minors. In 16 starts at Triple-A this season, Farmer has a 3.30 FIP with a strikeout rate of 20.7%. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Orioles, but it’s also one that comes with some risk. Baltimore is ranked tenth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and he has to face them on the road. On a night with a full slate of games, Farmer is a deep tournament play at best.

Pitcher Rating:56.3

Wei-Yin Chen : FD: $7,600 — DK: $8,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 307.1 — SIERA: 3.85 — ERA: 3.28 — K%: 18.3% — BB%: 4.8% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 4.40 — ERA: 2.86 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 3.6% — HR/9: 1.6

Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 27) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Chen may have a 2.86 ERA over the last month of play, but his indicators haven’t been nearly as good. During that same stretch, he has a 4.40 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 14.3%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Tigers’ offense has been cold over the last two weeks, but they had no problems scoring in last night’s win over the Orioles. There is more risk than potential reward with Chen tonight.

Pitcher Rating:68.4

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are one of the best hitting teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. A large part of that is because their lineup consists primarily of right-handed hitters. This is a matchup that bodes well for Detroit, as Wei-Yin Chen has given up a .323 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

J.D. Martinez : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 218 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.277 — wRC+: 154
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 114

Victor Martinez : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 224 — wOBA: 0.456 — ISO: 0.269 — wRC+: 198
Last 14 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.255 — ISO: 0.075 — wRC+: 56

Secondary Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 245 — wOBA: 0.275 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 73
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 139

Nick Castellanos : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 237 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 111
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.302 — wRC+: 146

Rajai Davis : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 250 — wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 142
Last 14 Days: PA: 26 — wOBA: 0.156 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: -13

Baltimore

The Orioles are sizable favorites tonight in what is expected to be a high scoring game. They have a knack of letting us down in favorable matchups, but it’s hard to pass on them tonight. They are facing Buck Farmer, who has not fared well in his short stint in the majors.

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 655 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 108
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.400 — wRC+: 189

Matt Wieters : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 183 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 119
Last 14 Days: PA: 39 — wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 77

Secondary Plays:

Manny Machado : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 588 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.202 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 110

Adam Jones : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 811 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 100
Last 14 Days: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 131

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Atlanta					Philadelphia
			Williams Perez					David Buchanan
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI (0)					0.0
SP vs. Left	0.268	0.782	0.346	16.0%	SP vs. Left	0.245	0.674	0.304	10.70%
SP vs. Right	0.225	0.601	0.283	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.293	0.000	0.363	15.60%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits			PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Williams Perez : FD: $5,800 — DK: $4,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 50.0 — SIERA: 4.39 — ERA: 2.88 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 10.8% — HR/9: 0.7

Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 9)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Perez is making his first start in more than a month, after he injured his foot near the end of June. He has been a serviceable starter for the Braves, but his ERA does not match his SIERA, which suggests that he will regress over the second half of the season. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, but they don’t strikeout at a high enough rate. Perez can be avoided in cash games, although a starting pitcher facing the Phillies for $4,000 (DraftKings) isn’t the worst tournament play.

Pitcher Rating:44.5

David Buchanan : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 153.2 — SIERA: 4.51 — ERA: 4.51 — K%: 13.4% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 11.1 — SIERA: 4.63 — ERA: 3.18 — K%: 14.0% — BB%: 6.0% — HR/9: 0.0

Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.251 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Buchanan is a pitcher that is easily avoidable in daily fantasy baseball. Since the start of last season, he has a 4.51 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 13.4%. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Braves, who have the third-lowest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Even though Buchanan is cheap, there isn’t enough upside to warrant consideration tonight.

Pitcher Rating:45.8

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves draw a favorable matchup against David Buchanan, but they really don’t have anyone that can take advantage of the fact that he is a reverse-splits pitcher. Adonis Garcia remains a viable punt option on DraftKings, but he is not a must play by any means. Freddie Freeman is also a decent secondary play at his discounted price point.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 722 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.206 — wRC+: 150
Last 14 Days: PA: 24 — wOBA: 0.189 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 13

Adonis Garcia : FD: $2,800 — DK: $2,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 19 — wOBA: 0.259 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 62
Last 14 Days: PA: 24 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.304 — wRC+: 110

Philadelphia

The Phillies have hit the ball well over the last few weeks and they find themselves in a favorable matchup against Williams Perez, who has given up a .346 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. I still can’t recommend any Phillies’ hitters as elite plays, but there are a few viable targets here that could make nice contrarian options.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Howard : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 739 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 95
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.244 — wRC+: 121

Cesar Hernandez : FD: $3,000 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 287 — wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.067 — wRC+: 74
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 82

Odubel Herrera : FD: $2,400 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 235 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 102
Last 14 Days: PA: 28 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 162

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Kansas City					Toronto
			Johnny Cueto					Drew Hutchison
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-112)					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.186	0.543	0.248	24.6%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.777	0.340	21.20%
SP vs. Right	0.198	0.602	0.267	24.4%	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.723	0.318	23.50%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto : FD: $10,300 — DK: $10,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 374.1 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 2.38 — K%: 24.5% — BB%: 6.4% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 3.84 — ERA: 1.59 — K%: 20.9% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 0.0

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 15.6% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Cueto will make his Royals’ debut tonight. They would have liked to throw him out in an easy matchup, but the scheduling gods didn’t cooperate. Cueto will get thrown straight into the fire tonight, as he squares off against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. Cueto will be an attractive fantasy option for the rest of the season, but he can be avoided tonight. He is overpriced for his matchup against Toronto.

Pitcher Rating:77.1

Drew Hutchison : FD: $8,400 — DK: $5,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 292.2 — SIERA: 3.69 — ERA: 4.83 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 19.2 — SIERA: 4.31 — ERA: 7.32 — K%: 18.1% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 1.4

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.65 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Hutchison has not performed well recently, posting a 7.32 ERA (4.31 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 18.1%. A pitcher in bad form should never be targeted against the Royals, especially when they are facing them in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Hutchison’s price on DraftKings is appealing, but he is too risky in this matchup. I will be avoiding him in both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:59.3

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a major ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre tonight. They are one of the best offenses in baseball and they can hurt you by playing small ball or by hitting home runs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Drew Hutchison, who has given up a .318+ wOBA to left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 638 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 127
Last 14 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.521 — ISO: 0.304 — wRC+: 243

Mike Moustakas : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 637 — wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 102

Secondary Plays:

Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 602 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 108
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 152

Kendrys Morales : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 502 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 96
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 113

Toronto

I’m glad that we have a full slate of games tonight, because if this was a part of a five-game slate, we would have to decide whether we want to target Johnny Cueto or the Blue Jays’ hitters. With all 30 teams in action tonight, we can fade both and then sit back and watch what happens.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Pittsburgh					Cincinnati
			Jeff Locke					Michael Lorenzen
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-120)					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.605	0.273	11.0%	SP vs. Left	0.333	1.074	0.454	15.30%
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.743	0.328	18.6%	SP vs. Right	0.221	0.704	0.307	15.20%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Locke : FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 239.2 — SIERA: 4.07 — ERA: 4.02 — K%: 16.9% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.1 — SIERA: 3.77 — ERA: 2.84 — K%: 19.0% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.0

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Locke has pitched well recently, posting a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.0% over the last month of play. He is a small favorite tonight, but both offenses are expected to have some success in this game. The total is set at 8.5 runs and we saw what the Reds offense is capable of last night. I don’t love the matchup against Cincinnati and the fact that it is being played in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark doesn’t help. Locke is not on my radar tonight.

Pitcher Rating:60.1

Michael Lorenzen : FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 78.2 — SIERA: 5.18 — ERA: 4.58 — K%: 15.2% — BB%: 12.6% — HR/9: 1.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 17.1 — SIERA: 5.04 — ERA: 8.83 — K%: 16.7% — BB%: 13.1% — HR/9: 2.1

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 25.2% (Rank: 30)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Lorenzen has not pitched well in his major league career, posting a 5.18 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 15.2%. He walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out, which is always a huge red flag for a pitcher. He can be avoided tonight against a very capable Pirates’ offense.

Pitcher Rating:38.3

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

I’m not going to count out the right-handed hitters in the Pirates’ lineup, but the left-handed bats have the clear advantage in tonight’s matchup. Michael Lorenzen has given up a .454 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate this season. Neil Walker, Gregory Polanco, and Pedro Alvarez are all in a good spot tonight.

Elite Plays:

Neil Walker : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 780 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 128
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 92

Gregory Polanco : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 547 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.127 — wRC+: 102
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 126

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen : FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 878 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.220 — wRC+: 161
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 122

Pedro Alvarez : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 649 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 138

Cincinnati

The Reds draw a decent matchup tonight against Jeff Locke. While he has better numbers than most people realize, he does struggle with right-handed hitters. Since the start of the 2014 season, Locke has given up a .328 wOBA to hitters from the right side of the plate.

Elite Plays:

Todd Frazier : FD: $3,700 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 250 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.267 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 73

Marlon Byrd : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 246 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 117
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 128

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Phillips : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 210 — wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.067 — wRC+: 75
Last 14 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 101

Ivan De Jesus : FD: $2,700 — DK: $2,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 23 — wOBA: 0.223 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 34
Last 14 Days: PA: 25 — wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.050 — wRC+: 181

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
Washington					NY Mets
			Gio Gonzalez					Matt Harvey
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-125)					6.5
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.634	0.282	21.8%	SP vs. Left	0.239	0.761	0.331	24.40%
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.696	0.309	23.3%	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.563	0.247	21.60%
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez : FD: $9,600 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 264.1 — SIERA: 3.55 — ERA: 3.68 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 8.6% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.0 — SIERA: 3.40 — ERA: 1.88 — K%: 20.4% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.8

New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 24.4% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Am I the only one that thinks of the Cha Cha Cha Chia song every time Gonzalez is on the mound? Ga Ga Ga Gio! He comes into tonight’s start in his best form of the season, posting a 1.88 ERA (3.40 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.4% over the last month of play. He draws one of the best pitching matchups in all of baseball, as he gets to face a strikeout happy Mets’ offense in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Run support may be an issue with Matt Harvey pitching opposite him, but Ga Ga Ga Gio is a strong SP2 and/or tournament play tonight.

Pitcher Rating:75.8

Matt Harvey : FD: $9,900 — DK: $11,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 125.1 — SIERA: 3.46 — ERA: 3.16 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 26.0 — SIERA: 4.83 — ERA: 3.81 — K%: 17.9% — BB%: 12.5% — HR/9: 1.4

Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 25.0% (Rank: 29)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Harvey still has his electric stuff, but he looks a little shy on the mound. He is throwing a ton of fastballs in two-strike counts and he is not being aggressive with the strike zone. As a result, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. Could he come out tonight and dominate the Nationals? Of course he could, but I’m not sure that I want to take the chance at this price point. The Nationals’ lineup looks a lot better now that Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman are back in the mix. Given his recent form, Harvey is a better target for tournaments than he is for cash games.

Pitcher Rating:78.6

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals get to face a struggling Matt Harvey tonight, but it’s still a below-average matchup. Harvey still has an elite strikeout rate and they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Bryce Harper is an interesting tournament play, but the rest of the lineup can safely be avoided. There are better matchups to exploit.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper : FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 564 — wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.256 — wRC+: 167
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 185

NY Mets

The Mets are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. Without David Wright in the lineup, they don’t have any real right-handed threat to throw at southpaws. Their offense can safely be avoided tonight against Gio Gonzalez.