MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 1st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Kansas City at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Yordano Ventura |  | Mark Buehrle | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-122) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.684 | 0.303 | 19.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.736 | 0.322 | 13.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.700 | 0.312 | 21.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.280 | 0.732 | 0.319 | 13.30% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.345 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 10)
Ventura is coming off one of his better starts of the season, limiting the Astros to one earned run in seven innings. Prior to this performance, Ventura held a 4.13 xFIP (9.00 ERA) in his previous four starts. Ventura has an extremely tough matchup today in Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays’ offense, which is ranked third in the league in team wOBA against righties. He is a tough play today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $8,400 FD, $7,600 DK
Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 15.0% (Rank: 1)
Looking at Buehrle’s game logs is quite interesting. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last ten starts, which do include four starts at Rogers Centre. During this span, he holds a 3.49 xFIP (1.78 ERA), yet his upside is extremely limited due to his 12.2% strikeout rate, which is one of the lowest of all starters today. Combine that with facing a Royals squad that strikes out at a 15% rate, and you can look elsewhere in the morning slate. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $6,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The fact that this game is being played in Rogers Centre gives a nice boost to the Royals’ bats, yet we haven’t seen this lineup produce much so far in this series. Buehrle has pitched well recently, but this Royals squad is going to put a lot of balls in play today and should put up some runs as well.
Elite Plays
Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.442 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.435
Salvador Perez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.202
Secondary Plays:
Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.110 — OBP: 0.325
Kendrys Morales
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.088 — OBP: 0.348
Toronto
Ventura has allowed a wOBA of .304+ from both sides of the plate this year. This Blue Jays offense is always in the mix for being top plays when at home and today is no different as they have a 4.56 team total, which is the second highest team total behind the Red Sox in the early slate.
Elite Plays
Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.770 — ISO: 0.833 — OBP: 0.500
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.280 — OBP: 0.363
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.225 — OBP: 0.340
Secondary Plays:
Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.211 — OBP: 0.318
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.330
Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:35 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Boston | ||||||||
 | Matt Moore |  | Joe Kelly | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-115) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.785 | 0.344 | 13.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.695 | 0.312 | 17.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.327 | 0.000 | 0.396 | 13.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.000 | 0.339 | 16.60% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Moore
Boston Red Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 9)
Matt Moore has really struggled since coming back from the DL in early July. He has not pitched into the sixth inning or had a pitch count of higher than 88 in any of his five starts. Moore has struggled so far in those five starts as he has a 5.66 xFIP, which is boosted thanks to a 10.6% walk rate and 33 hits allowed during that span. He should be safely avoided against a very potent Red Sox lineup. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6,100 FD, $7,500 DK
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 27)
Kelly is not a pitcher we want to focus on regardless of the matchup. He has a 4.09 xFIP on the season (5.94 ERA), while posting an average strikeout rate (18.2%) and a .277 AVG allowed against him. He is priced low for a reason today, and should be avoided as this game features a total of nine runs and Boston as slight favorites. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Kelly has struggled this year against batters from both sides of the plate as he has allowed a wOBA of .318+ from both sides of the play. The Rays’ bats should be another solid source of production on this slate.
Elite Plays
John Jaso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.163— OBP: 0.364
Evan Longoria
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310— ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.314
Secondary Plays:
James Loney
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.074 — OBP: 0.325
Logan Forsythe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.092 — OBP: 0.372
Boston
This Red Sox lineup is starting to look a bit beat up, but they have a great matchup against Moore who has really struggled so far this season. He is allowing a wOBA of .400+ to righties so don’t be afraid to look at a few of the Boston bats for the early slate. Check injury status of Hanley and Pablo as they may sit again, which would allow some cheap bats to hit higher in the order.
Elite Plays
Xander Bogaerts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.113 — OBP: 0.417
Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.237 — OBP: 0.304
Mike Napoli
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.261 — OBP: 0.356
Secondary Plays:
Rusney Castillo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.067 — OBP: 0.323
LA Angels at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM EST
| LA Angels | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Andrew Heaney |  | Clayton Kershaw | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.209 | 0.539 | 0.239 | 23.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.207 | 0.534 | 0.238 | 34.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.747 | 0.327 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.196 | 0.538 | 0.240 | 32.40% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs L | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 11)
Heaney has really seemed to right the ship this season as he has sports a 1.79 ERA in his first six starts. His xFIP of 3.55 shows some regression is in order, but he has still pitched very well as he has a 20.1% strikeout rate and a very low 3.3% walk rate. Continuing to keep runners off the basepaths will be key to his success going forward and especially against a Dodgers squad that has been solid all year long against left-handed pitching and sports a .326 team wOBA against them. Run support may be non-existent, but taking a tournament shot with Heaney in the early slate is not the worst plan. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,800 DK
Los Angeles Angels vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 12)
Kershaw had his start pushed back until today and now gets to face off against the Angels and is the top pitching option by far in the early slate. There is not a whole lot to say about his dominance this year, but he still holds a SIERA of 2.06 on the season to go along with his elite 33.9% strikeout rate. The problem here becomes the price tag, but in the early slate, there is really no other pitchers to trust other than the two in this matchup. Kershaw is the clear cash game option and there should be enough solid value bats that you can fit him into your lineups. Rating = 9.5
Salaries: $13,300 FD, $14,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and there are plenty of other pitchers to attack on this slate. Avoid the Angels’ bats today.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays:
None
LA Dodgers
Heaney has pitched very well so far this year and has held batters to a sub .250 wOBA from both sides of the plate. There are a few Dodger bats that hit lefties well, but should be looked at as secondary plays today.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays:
Howie Kendrick
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.354
Yasiel Puig
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.282 — OBP: 0.378
Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Matt Wisler |  | Aaron Nola | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PHI (-109) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.733 | 0.321 | 8.70% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.179 | 0.614 | 0.260 | 34.50% | ||||
| Batter Splits | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Philidelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 11)
Wisler has not had the greatest start to his seven-game MLB career. His ERA is not bad at 3.43, but if we look further his advanced statistics shows that he holds a SIERA of 4.70, a very low strikeout rate of 14.6% and command issues as he has allowed 12 walks in his last five starts. He does have a great matchup, but the upside is too limited to take a chance. Rating = 2.5
Salaries: $6,300 FD, $7,200 DK
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 3)
Nola got his first win in his last start as he allowed four earned runs against the Cubs. Nola is one of the top pitching prospects and was a high draft pick in last year’s draft with a lot of upside due to being a high strikeout pitcher (23.4% in Triple AAA). He has had six strikeouts in each of his first two starts and now has a solid matchup against the Braves today. He comes with the risk of a young pitcher making his third career start, but does feature some decent production for a good price across the industry. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $5,900 FD, $5,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Nola has looked decent in his first couple of starts and the Braves are small underdogs in this game. There are no elite plays from this squad, but Freeman’s reduced price could be worth a GPP shot.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.359
A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331— ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.323
Philadelphia
The Phillies have a solid matchup against Wisler who has given up a wOBA of .304+ from both sides of the plate. The total is still low in this matchup, yet some value can be found from this Phillies lineup as well.
Elite Plays
Maikel Franco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.196 — OBP: 0.332
Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.076 — OBP: 0.333
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.243 — OBP: 0.298
Dominic Brown
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.311
Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Detroit | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Anibal Sanchez |  | Kevin Gausman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-141) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.608 | 0.270 | 22.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.731 | 0.323 | 18.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 18.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.655 | 0.289 | 20.10% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Baltimore Orioles. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 28)
Sanchez has struggled a bit recently posting a 4.31 xFIP (4.66 ERA) over his last six starts. A main concern during this span has been the nine home runs allowed in his last 35.2 innings. He continues to strikeout batters at a decent rate this season (21.2%), but at his price and with the matchup against the Orioles, who are in the top ten in the league in wOBA against righties (.320), there is plenty to worry about. Baltimore’s bats are heating up as they have put up 16 runs in their last two starts, which makes Sanchez a tough play and should be limited to tournaments only. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8,500 FD, $8,300 DK
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 14)
Gausman came out last game and had a great start against the weak hitting Braves offense. He went 7.2 innings of zero earned run ball, with five strikeouts. Including this start, he has pitching well over his last four games posting a 3.72 SIERA and 20.0% strikeout rate. Gausman has a much tougher opponent today in the Tigers, who got a bit weaker with the trade of Cespedes. He is cheap again today, but the upside is not as high as it was in his last start. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6,300 FD, $4,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
This Detroit offense has the fifth-highest wOBA in the league over the last 30 days. They face Gausman today in a matchup that should allow them to score some runs.
Elite Plays
J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.281 — OBP: 0.338
Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.110 — OBP: 0.318
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.270 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.290
Baltimore
Sanchez has been struggling recently and this Orioles offense can put up runs in a hurry. Home runs have been a problem for Anibal who has allowed ten in his last ten games, which puts Baltimore in line for a solid effort tonight as they have one of the highest team totals of the night slate at 4.60.
Elite Plays
Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.276 — OBP: 0.321
Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.228 — OBP: 0.362
Secondary Plays:
Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.315
Matt Wieters
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.309