MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 22nd

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-08-24 17:35:48

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Cleveland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Cleveland					NY Yankees
			Danny Salazar					Luis Severino
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-125)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.223	0.683	0.298	28.3%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.697	0.305	18.90%
SP vs. Right	0.245	0.701	0.307	25.3%	SP vs. Right	0.179	0.579	0.259	35.50%
Batter Splits			CLE vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Salazar

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 8)

Salazar has been great for the Indians recently. Over the last 30 days, Salazar has a SIERA of 3.66, and a strikeout rate of 26%. He has a tough matchup this afternoon against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium, which could give Salazar some problems as he has allowed 18 home runs in 22 starts this year. With that said, he does have some high upside and should be viewed as a tournament play on the early slate. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9,200 FD, $11,400 DK

Luis Severino

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 10)

Severino has pitched well in his first three starts. He has had some difficult matchups, but has come out with a 3.09 SIERA and a high strikeout rate as expected (26.5%). Today, he faces off against a Cleveland squad with some solid bats, especially with Kipnis back. He is a tournament play only, especially against an Indians squad that is a bit healthier with Kipnis back in the lineup, but for his price, I do like him slightly more than Salazar in this matchup. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $7,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Severino has pitched very well and this Indians squad only has a team total of 3.69 for this game. He has shut down right-handed bats, but in a small sample size has allowed a wOBA of .305 to lefties. Using some of the better Cleveland left-handed bats for tournament plays is a contrarian option this afternoon.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.169 — OBP: 0.408

Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.353

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.162 — OBP: 0.449

NY Yankees

Salazar has allowed a wOBA of under .291 from both sides of the plate this year. This game does feature a total of eight with the Yankees being slight favorites. With the early slate being only three games, you are going to have to target some guys from this game, making some of the Yankees’ big bats secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.113 — OBP: 0.335

Gregory Bird
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.316 — OBP: 0.333

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.315

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM EST

San Francisco					Pittsburgh
			Mike Leake					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.278	0.776	0.339	14.8%	SP vs. Left	0.240	0.666	0.298	24.00%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.646	0.283	19.9%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.669	0.295	24.80%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 28)

Leake was traded to the Giants, had a decent start, but then fell onto the 15-day DL. He is returning from about three weeks off now to face a Pirates offense that has been playing much better recently. On the season, Leake has proved to be a good real life pitcher (3.98 SIERA), but has little upside due to his 16.3% strikeout rate. This is a tough matchup with Cole opposing him and Leake should be used as a contrarian option only. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $7,700 DK

Gerrit Cole

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 4)

Cole really let a lot of us down in his last start as he allowed seven earned runs to the Diamondbacks at home. He will look to rebound and he should. Including his last rough start, Cole has a SIERA of 3.14 over the last month of play. The Giants are a tough opponent, but Cole’s recent 24.5% strikeout rate recently should help combat the Giant’s low 18.3% team strikeout rate. Cole and the Pirates are big time favorites and he is the top pitching option for the afternoon slate. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9,900 FD, $10,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants bats have to face off against Cole who has been stellar this year allowing a wOBA of less than .293 from both sides of the plate. The Giants have one of lowest team totals of the day at 3.09. Avoid their bats unless you want to take a major GPP, contrarian route.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Pittsburgh

This game does not appear to be one of the higher scoring games of the day, but Leake is not a high, strikeout pitcher, which means the Pirates should be able to put the ball into play. Polanco is in a good spot as he should be back in the leadoff spot against Leake who has allowed a wOBA of .323 to left-handed bats this year.

Elite Plays:

Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.339

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.395

Starling Marte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.339

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM EST

Atlanta					Chicago Cubs
			Williams Perez					Dan Haren
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.283	0.822	0.360	12.7%	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.743	0.321	20.90%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.671	0.308	15.4%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.717	0.310	15.20%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits			CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Williams Perez

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 2)

Perez has struggled recently, losing his last four games in a row. Over this span, Perez has a SIERA of 6.32 as he has allowed 20 runs in 24.2 innings. His strikeout rate of 14.1% is extremely low, which takes him out of consideration against a tough Cubs offense this afternoon. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,800 FD, $5,000 DK

Dan Haren

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 25)

Haren has been pretty much what was expected since he was traded to the Cubs. He has allowed three earned runs in each of his three starts, 19 hits and six home runs allowed against overall. Home runs have been an issue for Haren as he has a HR/9 of 1.69 on the year. He has a bit of a tougher matchup today as Freeman is back in the lineup. He is a monster favorite on the early slate and should be viewed as a solid SP2, but his upside is a bit limited by his 18% strikeout rate. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

This Braves offense is very tough to trust even with the decent matchup against Haren who has been a bit home run friendly this season. He has been hit hard against lefties (.364 wOBA), which does put the newly returned Freeman into play and Markakis for a cheap price.

Elite Plays:

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.239— OBP: 0.361

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343— ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.389

Chicago Cubs

This Cubs offense has a ton of monster bats that can go yard at any time. They have the highest team total of the morning slate (4.43 team total) and should be able to take advantage of Perez and his .360 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats. Loading up on the big names will be a popular option and for good reason.

Elite Plays:

Kyle Schwarber
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.464 — ISO: 0.337 — OBP: 0.437

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.383

Chris Coghlan
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.351

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.334

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.193 — OBP: 0.367

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM EST

Milwaukee					Washington
			Taylor Jungmann					Joe Ross
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-150)					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.240	0.639	0.283	23.5%	SP vs. Left	0.309	0.921	0.395	20.40%
SP vs. Right	0.193	0.564	0.255	21.2%	SP vs. Right	0.175	0.452	0.198	28.50%
Batter Splits			MIL vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Taylor Jungmann

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 1)

Jungmann comes into this game pitching well for the Brewers. He has not allowed more than two earned runs over his last ten starts, and only one home run during that span. His ability to keep the ball in the ballpark (.22 HR/9) combined with a solid 22.4% strikeout rate, make Jungmann a solid tournament play and SP2 against the Nationals tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $9,600 DK

Joe Ross

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 13)

After pitching well in June and July, Ross has his a bit of a rookie wall in August. Over his last two starts, Ross has not made it to the fifth inning, while allowing nine total earned runs. He will try to get back on track at home today against a Brewers squad that is not strong against right-handed pitching. His K rate of 24.7% is excellent for his low price tonight plus the solid matchup makes him one of the better, cheap tournament plays of the night slate. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7,300 FD, $7,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

This Milwaukee squad has a very low team total of as they face off against Ross. In his limited action this year, he has been stellar against right-handed bats (.198 wOBA allowed), while struggling against lefties (.395 wOBA allowed). Due to this, Lind is clearly in play tonight.

Elite Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.228 — OBP: 0.387

Secondary Plays:

None

Washington

When facing a non-elite, right-handed pitcher, Harper is always in play as evidenced yesterday as he hit his 31st home run. This game has the looks of one of the lower scoring games on the slate, so target the bats with the expectation that the total is at seven tonight.

Elite Plays:

Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.341 — OBP: 0.471

Secondary Plays:

Jason Werth
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.254— ISO: 0.070 — OBP: 0.287

Minnesota at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

Minnesota					Baltimore
			Kyle Gibson					Chris Tillman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-153)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.688	0.306	12.4%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.663	0.297	17.00%
SP vs. Right	0.258	0.705	0.310	18.8%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.738	0.323	16.80%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 7)

Gibson has really struggled recently. Over his last six starts, Gibson has allowed 30 earned runs (4.20 SIERA). It may not get better tonight against a tough Baltimore offense in Camden Yards. He is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,500 FD, $5,900 DK

Chris Tillman

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 12)

If we throw out the rough performance where Tillman was hit by a batted ball in his pitching arm, Tillman has pitched great recently. Over the last seven starts (excluding the Seattle game), Tillman has allowed a total of seven earned runs over 36.2 innings pitched. His upside is a bit limited by his 16.4% strikeout rate, but he does make an interesting SP2 for tournaments at a cheap price. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $5,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Tillman has allowed a season wOBA of .360 to right-handed bats this year. This Twins squad has some power heavy righties in their lineup who could take advantage of Tillman who has allowed four home runs in his last two starts, and could be solid tournament plays tonight with some solid upside.

Elite Plays:

Miguel Sano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.456 — ISO: 0.347 — OBP: 0.430

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.242 — OBP: 0.309

Secondary Plays:

Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.201 — OBP: 0.296

Baltimore

This Baltimore offense is one of the top to target on the night slate outside of the offenses at Coors. They have a 4.64 team total due to their matchup against Gibson who has been hit extremely hard over the last month of play. All the big bats are in play for this Baltimore squad who could be the sneaky tournament stack with most people leaning towards the Coors game.

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.294 — OBP: 0.341

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.362

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387— ISO: 0.232 — OBP: 0.368

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.209 — OBP: 0.310

Matt Wieters
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308— ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.302

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