MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 19 Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-07-19 12:27:51

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST

Miami					Philadelphia
			Dan Haren					Cole Hamels
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI (-124)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.239	0.706	0.307	0.217	SP vs. Left	0.202	0.594	0.274	0.216
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.706	0.306	0.153	SP vs. Right	0.24	0.664	0.293	0.251
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Haren

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 30)

Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 19)

I’m not sure what to make of this matchup. We have a mediocre pitcher that struggles against left-handed bats (.339 wOBA allowed) facing off against a team that struggles against right-handed pitching but has plenty of left-handed bats. You can make the call here, and I’ll split the rating right down the middle. I’ll probably stay away. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $7,100 DK

Cole Hamels

Miami Marlins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 3)

Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 11)

Cole Hamels is my favorite pitching option of the day when you factor in price. He is the 9th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, and he is the 10th most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. With so many aces pitching, he is likely to go over-looked by a lot of people. The Marlins’ offense really takes a step back against LHP with Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup, and Hamels is capable of shutting them down. His double-digit strikeout upside and the Marlins’ strikeout tendencies are a perfect match. Rating = 9.5

Salaries: $9,800 FD, $10,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

With Cole Hamels taking the crown as my favorite pitcher of the day, I’ll be avoiding the Miami bats. A good chunk of their #3 team wOBA against left-handed pitching is due to Stanton, who is not playing right now.

Elite Plays

NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS

Philadelphia

As I mentioned above, Dan Haren struggles against left-handed bats. It is very difficult to peg the Philadelphia offense, but they are 2-0 since the All-Star Break! Baby steps, indeed! I can’t put any of them in as elite plays, but there are solid secondary options available here.

Elite Plays

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays

Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: .231 — OBP: 0.293

Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: .088 — OBP: 0.352

Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: .083 — OBP: 0.339

Texas at Houston – 2:10 PM EST

Texas					Houston
			Yovani Gallardo					Dallas Keuchel
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-150)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.637	0.285	0.173	SP vs. Left	0.202	0.52	0.233	0.255
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.692	0.307	0.179	SP vs. Right	0.24	0.638	0.285	0.177
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 12)

Strikeout Rate: 25.5% (Rank: 1)

Yes, his ERA is 3.18 over his last two starts. Yes, his ERA is 2.62 for the season. It’s smoke and mirrors. Gallardo has a pedestrian 4.04 xFIP, and his last two starts have featured a total of nine walks and seven strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .298 off him in those starts. The wheels are going to come falling off at some point, and Gallardo remains a player you should not be targeting for fantasy purposes. Don’t fall for the trap, even against a Houston team that strikes out as much as any team in the league. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $7,200 DK

Dallas Keuchel

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 24)

Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 8)

The beat goes on, as Dallas Keuchel continues to fly under the fantasy radar despite having elite fantasy numbers in almost every category. He is an intriguing option today, as I expect him to be under-owned yet again with a matchup against Texas and a high price tag on every site. The Ranger offense has quite a few left-handed bats, and Keuchel matches up very well against them. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10,400 FD, $10,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

I will not be actively targeting the LH-heavy Rangers against an ace-caliber LHP in Dallas Keuchel. A few of the right-handers could be in play as secondary options, but I am not super high on them against a pitcher that gets so many ground balls.

Elite Plays

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays

Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: .180 — OBP: 0.305

Houston

I expect regression from Yovani Gallardo, and Houston is the type of team that could potentially dent the scoreboard several times against him. Their lineup is always hit-or-miss, however, and the Houston sticks are far from a sure thing. They make great tournament options.

Elite Plays

Evan Gattis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: .227 — OBP: 0.274

Secondary Plays

Jose Altuve
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: .116 — OBP: 0.306

Carlos Correa
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: .167 — OBP: 0.273

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST

Pittsburgh					Milwaukee
			Jeff Locke					Taylor Jungmann
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-115)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.216	0.6	0.271	0.114	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.661	0.299	0.2
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.748	0.33	0.185	SP vs. Right	0.203	0.629	0.279	0.158
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Locke

Milwaukee Brewers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 28)

Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 18)

Jeff Locke is pitching much better this season and has learned to harness his command a little bit, but this isn’t the best matchup. Milwaukee’s offense is healthy and rolling right now, and I want no part of Locke on the road with all the other pitching options today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,500 DK

Taylor Jungmann

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 21)

Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 12)

The Brewers have found a pleasant surprise with Taylor Jungmann, as he has actually pitched much better than prized prospect Jimmy Nelson for the big club. His 2.15 ERA is near the top of the National League, and his numbers are solid but no spectacular across the rest of the board. His advanced metrics indicate some regression, though, and this is a dangerous matchup Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $7,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Teams have had difficulty figuring out Taylor Jungmann, and I am not currently fond of targeting hitters against him. The upshot is that the Pirates have guys who are definitely capable of doing damage in this matchup, and the batting options are limited today.

Elite Plays

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: .213 — OBP: 0.387

Secondary Plays

Neil Walker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: .149 — OBP: 0.349

Milwaukee

With everyone back in the fold, the Milwaukee offense looks like a totally different unit. The Brewers have won the first two games of this series, and they put up eight runs a night ago. The right-handed bats are definitely in play against Jeff Locke.

Elite Plays

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: .291 — OBP: 0.403

Secondary Plays

Jonathan Lucroy
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.207 — ISO: .125 — OBP: 0.200

Jean Segura
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: .108 — OBP: 0.324

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Kansas City					Chicago White Sox
			Danny Duffy					Chris Sale
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-156)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.19	0.489	0.226	0.174	SP vs. Left	0.168	0.417	0.197	0.358
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.715	0.317	0.175	SP vs. Right	0.21	0.602	0.267	0.307
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy

Chicago White Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.258 (Rank: 30)

Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 9)

Yes, the White Sox offense is bad. They are especially poor against left-handers. I still want no part of Danny Duffy. He has very limited upside as he doesn’t strike anyone out, and the opposing pitcher is Chris Sale. That’s probably the point where we can all agree to move along. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $4,700 DK

Chris Sale

Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 15)

Strikeout Rate: 15.0% (Rank: 30)

Chris Sale continues the trend of ace pitchers that don’t exactly have the best matchups on paper. Sale dominates games via the strikeout, but he now has to face a Royals offense that does a great job of making contact. We have plenty of historical data to look at here, too. In 25 career games (14 starts) against the Royals, Sale is 7-8 with a 2.68 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 111 innings. That’s a K/9 rate of 7.62 against Kansas City, well below his career figure of 10+ and his 2015 figure of 11.84. The upside is certainly there, but Sale isn’t an automatic pick today like he usually is. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $11,800 FD, $13,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

You likely have better odds at hitting the Powerball than picking a batter that has a breakout game against Chris Sale.

Elite Plays

NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS

Chicago White Sox

I had to laugh when I looked up the numbers and saw that the White Sox have a .258 team wOBA against left-handed pitching. To put that in perspective, that is 25 points lower than the Phillies’ dead last team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Yikes! I don’t love their bats here, but certainly Duffy can be hittable at times.

Elite Plays

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: .147 — OBP: 0.338

Secondary Plays

Avisail Garcia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: .127 — OBP: 0.333

NY Mets at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

NY Mets					St. Louis
			Jonathon Niese					Tim Cooney
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-135)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.429	1.071	0.469	0
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.234	0.762	0.324	0.235
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L		Batter Splits			STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jonathon Niese

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 26)

Strikeout Rate: 24.4% (Rank: 3)

The Cardinals’ offense tends to struggle against left-handed pitching. That still doesn’t give me much reason to consider Niese in this matchup. His strikeout upside is limited and there just isn’t much upside here. You could consider him as a cheap second pitcher on multi-pitcher sites, but that’s about it. Rating = 4.5

Tim Cooney

New York Mets vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 23)

Strikeout Rate: 23.8% (Rank: 4)

Tim Cooney has shown some intriguing upside since Jaime Garcia went out with an injury, as he has a surprisingly high 8.20 K/9 in four starts for the Cardinals. That is higher than his strikeout rate at any minor league level, however, and the rest of his stats are average at best. Granted, if there was ever a time to use him, it would probably be against the Mets. I’ll pass. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,000 FD, $5,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets offense has been nothing short of woeful this month. Sure, they get to face Tim Cooney, but is there really anyone on the Mets you can feel confident about playing right now?

Elite Plays

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays

Wilmer Flores
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: .220 — OBP: 0.315

St. Louis

I was surprised to see that the Cardinals are striking out at the #3 clip in the big leagues when facing left-handed pitching. It will be interesting to see if the offense can kick it in gear with Matt Holliday back in the fold. As for Holliday, he is not a fantasy option right now as he is working his way back into the mix, and Mike Matheny has basically admitted that he will be removed late in games for defensive purposes whenever the opportunity comes up.

Elite Plays

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: .274 — OBP: 0.315

Secondary Plays

Randal Grichuk
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: .211 — OBP: 0.333

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