MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 28 - Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-06-28 19:33:49

Cleveland at Baltimore – 1:35 PM EST

Cleveland					Baltimore
			Trevor Bauer					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-125)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.683	0.307	0.229	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.758	0.341	0.204
SP vs. Right	0.261	0.743	0.328	0.218	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.665	0.299	0.245
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer – That thud you heard last Monday was the sound of Bauer getting hammered by the Detroit Tigers as the 24-year-old was blasted for seven runs before being pulled after just three innings. That disastrous outing skyrocketed his ERA to 3.86 and WHIP to 1.33. He’ll have another tough test on his hands this afternoon when he invades Camden Yards to battle a very dangerous Orioles lineup. After leading MLB in home runs last season, the Orioles are once again near the top of that category again in 2015 and own an impressive .321 team wOBA. Bauer’s inconsistencies and control problems make him a tough cash game play, but with 23.7% strikeout rate, he’s at least a high ceiling GPP target. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $7,100 DK

Ubaldo Jimenez – With a 6-3 record and 3.40 ERA after 14 starts, the Baltimore front office has to be pleased with what they’ve gotten out of Ubaldo thus far in 2015. He’s thrived at Camden Yards where he owns a 4-1 record and 2.48 ERA in six starts. His reputation of struggling against left-handed pitching will certainly be put to the test today against this very left-handed heavy Indians lineup. Ubaldo avoided disaster by consistently pitching out of trouble against the Indians in their only previous meeting this season, but was annihilated by them in two starts last season (11.88 ERA). There are too many other nice pitching options on the board today for me to consider him for cash game use, but his 3.27 xFIP and 9.30 K/9 certainly put him in play for GPP’s. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $7,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis – (LHB) – Ubaldo has a history of struggling with left-handed batters and Jason Kipnis is one of the toughest outs in baseball right now. The Indians second baseman owns brings a 20 game hitting streak into this afternoon’s game and has posted a .399 average and 1.064 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Michael Brantley – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.345 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 124 wRC+

Carlos Santana – (Switch) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.364 wOBA: 0.259 ISO: 137 wRC+

Brandon Moss – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.32 wOBA: 0.238 ISO: 107 wRC+

Baltimore

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.332 wOBA: 0.224 ISO: 110 wRC+

Manny Machado – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.374 wOBA: 0.212 ISO: 140 wRC+

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM EST

Atlanta					Pittsburgh
			Alex Wood					Jeff Locke
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-120)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.651	0.291	0.241	SP vs. Left	0.219	0.615	0.276	0.108
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.688	0.306	0.211	SP vs. Right	0.275	0.766	0.337	0.181
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood – He probably doesn’t receive the attention he deserves, but Alex Wood has been one of the best young pitchers in baseball over the past few seasons for Atlanta. The 24-year-old enters today’s game owning a 3.03 career ERA and owns a 2.72 ERA over his last seven starts in 2015. He has been much more effective away from Turner Field this season, as he’s posted a 4-2 record with a 2.73 ERA in nine road starts. With that said, he’s not pitcher who’s going to strike a ton of guys out and, while they may own just a .301 team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, this Pirates lineup is loaded with guys who handle the bat well against southpaws and they’ve already defeated Wood once this season. Wood is worth a look as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,700 FD, $8,200 DK

Jeff Locke – Locke didn’t have his best stuff in his last start and lasted just four innings against the Reds without recording a strikeout. However, he had pitched very well in each of the two starts prior and his 4.05 xFIP indicates he’s deserved a bit better than his current 4.73 ERA. He’ll square off against a Freddie Freeman-less Braves team that owns the second worst team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, but who he struggled against when they faced each other earlier this season and who blasted him in their only meeting in the 2014 season. Locke has been much more effective at PNC Park, posting a 2-1 record with a 3.17 ERA in eight home starts. The matchup is certainly a nice one, but the lack of strikeouts and recent struggles against the Braves just aren’t want fantasy owners are looking for. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Chris Johnson – (RHB) – He’s not your typical “elite” play, but he’s a great play by a value standpoint today. Johnson has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .387 average and .954 OPS this season should find himself hitting out of the cleanup spot for the Braves today.

2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.415 wOBA: 0.161 ISO: 167 wRC+

Secondary Plays:

Jonny Gomes – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.357 wOBA: 0.114 ISO: 128 wRC+

Pittsburgh

Jung-ho Kang – (RHB) – Kang is a great option at a rather thin shortstop position today. Right-handed batters own a .338 wOBA off of Alex Wood this season and Kang owns an impressive .308 average and .924 OPS against southpaws.

2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.4 wOBA: 0.231 ISO: 160 wRC+

Secondary Plays:

Starling Marte – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.439 wOBA: 0.333 ISO: 186 wRC+

Jordy Mercer – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.252 wOBA: 0.098 ISO: 59 wRC+

Josh Harrison – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.367 wOBA: 0.12 ISO: 137 wRC+

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 2:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					NY Mets
			Josh Smith					Steven Matz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-140)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	1.071	0.475	28.6%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.333	0.000	0.560	11.1%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L		Batter Splits			NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Smith – Smith will draw his second career start this afternoon in the Big Apple, but after allowing four runs and walking six batters in just three innings during his MLB debut on Tuesday, he’s just not an appealing fantasy option. The former 21st round draft pick pitched reasonably well at AAA prior to his promotion, posting a 1-3 record with a respectable 3.56 ERA. He only owned 6.58 K/9 at AAA and the soft-tossing right-hander is probably best to be ignored today even in a decent matchup against the Mets at Citi Field. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,200 DK

Steven Matz – Analysis coming soon.

Salaries: $4,600 FD, $7,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier – (RHB) – Frazier has tagged left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .420 wOBA and owns a .977 OPS thus far in 2015. Matz is a promising young pitcher, but Frazier his biggest roadblock in this Reds lineup. 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.42 wOBA: 0.385 ISO: 169 wRC+

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto – (LHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.377 wOBA: 0.148 ISO: 140 wRC+

Brandon Phillips – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.306 wOBA: 0.031 ISO: 91 wRC+

NY Mets

Curtis Granderson – (LHB) – Granderson is red-hot at the plate right now, owning a nine game hitting streak that has seen him rack up five home runs. He owns a .940 OPS during the month of June and has posted a .383 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.383 wOBA: 0.209 ISO: 150 wRC+

Secondary Plays:

Lucas Duda – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.331 wOBA: 0.169 ISO: 114 wRC+

NY Yankees at Houston – 2:10 PM EST

NY Yankees					Houston
			Michael Pineda					Collin McHugh
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-109)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.653	0.284	0.216	SP vs. Left	0.23	0.651	0.288	0.211
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.65	0.283	0.235	SP vs. Right	0.237	0.683	0.302	0.249
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda – Pineda trolled the vast majority of DFS players earlier this week when he failed to take advantage of an ideal home start against the Phillies and instead was blasted for eight earned runs on eleven hits in 3.1 innings. That abysmal start launched his ERA all the way to 4.25 on the young season and will likely keep his ownership rate rather low this afternoon. Today he’ll head to Houston to battle a dangerous Astros lineup that leads MLB in both home runs and ISO this season. Pineda has struggled away from Yankee Stadium this year, posting a 5.05 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in six road starts. While he may be hard to trust again immediately in cash games, Pineda’s 2.75 xFIP ranks him among the game’s elite pitchers and the Astros also own MLB’s highest strikeout rate. Pineda just smells like a textbook GPP play today. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9,700 FD, $7,500 DK

Collin McHugh – McHugh was quick out of the gates this season, but things have fallen apart a bit on him lately. Over his last nine starts, he sports a rather unsightly 5.93 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Nonetheless, thanks to Houston’s very capable offense, he’ll enter today’s game owning an 8-3 record on the young season. While McHugh may be unable to match his numbers from his breakout 2014 season, his 3.85 SIERA does at least suggest that he’ll right the ship eventually. McHugh has struggled mightily all season at Minute Maid Park (6.82 home ERA) and will face a Yankees team that owns MLB’s second-highest team wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season (112 wRC+). Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $7,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – (LHB) – Gardner is simply locked in at the plate right now and one of the best outfield options on the board today. The Yankees leadoff man picked up three more hits yesterday and now owns a .343 average and 1.031 OPS thus far in June. He also sports a .315 average and .888 OPS against right-handed pitching.

2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.385 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 146 wRC+

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira – (Switch) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.392 wOBA: 0.322 ISO: 151 wRC+

Houston

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.294 wOBA: 0.123 ISO: 86 wRC+

George Springer – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.339 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 117 wRC+

Minnesota at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST

Minnesota					Milwaukee
			Tommy Milone					Mike Fiers
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-150)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.655	0.292	0.108	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.706	0.308	0.242
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.791	0.347	0.153	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.674	0.295	0.277
Batter Splits			MIN vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tommy Milone – Milone was very hittable against the White Sox in his last start, but was able to consistently pitch his way out of trouble and recorded his third straight quality start. He’s been a pleasant surprise for the Twins this season and now owns a rock solid 4-1 record to go along with a 3.59 ERA after eight starts. With all that said, his 4.79 SIERA hints that a regression is imminent and the 13.9 K% is a liability by fantasy standards. With the Brewers lineup loaded with guys who love swinging the stick against southpaws, it’s hard to view Milone as anything more than a somewhat safe, yet low-ceiling, option to fill out your rotation on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 4.5

Mike Fiers – Fiers has had Jekyll and Hyde tendencies this season, and for that reason is a pitcher I’ll only target in GPP’s. He sports a rather disappointing 4.39 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season, but he was impressive on Tuesday night against the Mets and his 3.58 SIERA suggests that better luck is coming his way. For a pitcher with very little gas, Fiers continues to strikeout MLB hitters at an impressive clip (10.00 K/9 this season), but his 41.5 Hard Hit % is the worst among qualified starters in the big leagues this season. With Minnesota owning the league’s worst team wOBA on the road (.271 wOBA), Fiers is well worth consideration as a cheaper GPP option. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier – (RHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.372 wOBA: 0.259 ISO: 139 wRC+

Joe Mauer – (LHB) – 2015 vs RH Pitching: 0.284 wOBA: 0.076 ISO: 78 wRC+

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun – (RHB) – Braun is heating up at the plate, posting a .400 average (8 for 20) over the last seven days. He sports a team-high .361 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and has posted a 333 average and 1.028 OPS against southpaws during his career.

2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.361 wOBA: 0.216 ISO: 127 wRC+

Secondary Plays:

Aramis Ramirez – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.254 wOBA: 0.256 ISO: 54 wRC+

Jean Segura – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.358 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 125 wRC+

Jonathan Lucroy – (RHB) – 2015 vs LH Pitching: 0.133 wOBA: 0.04 ISO: -28 wRC+

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