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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, October 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:28

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – Sunday 8:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Chicago Cubs
Article Image Clayton Kershaw Article Image Kyle Hendricks
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -130 6.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.137 0 24.1% 36.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.269 6 23.7% 22.3%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.227 8 29.8% 29.8% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.243 9 27.4% 23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $12,600
FPPG: 44.5 FPPG: 25.5
Pitcher Rating: Pitcher Rank:
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 78.2 2.98 1.29 26.2% 1.9% 12.0% 47.9% 34.2% 25.7%
2016 21 98.2 2.41 1.69 31.6% 2.0% 15.3% 49.4% 30.1% 28.4%
2015 33 102.8 2.24 2.13 33.8% 4.7% 15.9% 50.0% 28.2% 25.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 1.44 — K%: 35.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.197
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 30.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.244

The Dodgers are asking a lot of their ace. He pitched on short rest in Game 4 against the Nationals, then he came in to close them out in Game 5. They are now asking him to pitch on short rest yet again for Game 2 of the NLCS. This is a great chance for the Dodgers to head home with a split, but it could be devastating if they are unable to pick up the win. Kershaw has had some bad luck in the postseason (his bullpen allowed all three of his baserunners to score in Game 4), but he is still the best pitcher in baseball. I don’t like betting against Kershaw in the regular season and I get the feeling that his dominant postseason start is coming. He is my favorite pitcher in the Sunday/Monday slate.

Kyle Hendricks
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,200
FPPG: 35.6 FPPG: 19.2
Pitcher Rating: Pitcher Rank:
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.2 3.23 2.32 25.8% 4.2% 10.8% 47.0% 32.5% 32.5%
2016 30 96.3 3.70 2.13 22.8% 5.9% 10.0% 48.4% 31.3% 25.8%
2015 32 87.3 3.37 3.95 22.6% 5.8% 8.1% 51.3% 26.9% 25.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 24.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.251
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.71 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297

Hendricks had a career season for the Cubbies, but as predicted, Joe Maddon was quick to make the call to his bullpen in Hendricks’ start against the Giants in the NLDS. He only threw 52 pitches, which lowers his floor dramatically. He will be on a short leash again tonight against the Dodgers, especially given the fact that the Cubs are underdogs. This is not a great matchup for Hendricks, as the Dodgers were ranked sixth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching during the regular season.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

There are basically three offenses that we can target in this slate, one of them being the Dodgers. While Kyle Hendricks has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate when you look at wOBA allowed, he has given up an xFIP of at least 3.55 to both left- and right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.334 0.152 38.8% 0.325 2B $2,700 2B $3,400
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.400 0.223 39.6% 0.277 SS $3,400 SS $4,200
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.385 0.258 37.2% 0.370 3B $3,400 3B $4,400
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.362 0.185 36.9% 0.335 1B $2,800 1B $3,700
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.371 0.163 32.8% 0.388 OF $2,600 OF $3,700
6 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.386 0.278 41.3% 0.446 OF $3,000 OF $3,600
7 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.351 0.268 39.7% 0.435 C $2,600 C $3,000
8 Andrew Toles LEFT 0.375 0.185 32.4% 0.227 OF $2,100 OF $2,400
9 Clayton Kershaw LEFT 0.201 0.036 11.5% 0.220 P $9,800 P $12,600
Team Averages — 0.352 0.194 34.5% 0.336 — — — —

Elite Plays – Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest implied team total in the slate, as they should facing Clayton Kershaw. Even though his numbers in the postseason aren’t nearly as good as they are during the regular season, he is still the best pitcher in baseball. This season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA. A full Cubs fade is in order here.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.380 0.187 34.7% 0.455 OF $3,400 OF $3,100
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.438 0.327 40.5% 0.331 3B $3,700 3B/OF $3,900
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.362 0.205 24.8% 0.346 1B $3,700 1B $3,100
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.367 0.154 31.3% 0.495 2B $3,000 2B $3,300
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.343 0.245 31.7% 0.253 SS $2,300 SS $3,000
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.267 0.079 24.1% 0.336 OF $2,600 OF $2,600
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.359 0.164 30.6% 0.366 SS $2,900 2B/3B $3,700
8 David Ross RIGHT 0.395 0.245 35.9% 0.321 C $2,200 C $3,000
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.098 0.000 0.0% 0.146 P $9,500 P $9,200
Team Averages — 0.334 0.178 28.2% 0.339 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland at Toronto – Monday 8:05 PM ET

Cleveland Toronto
Article Image Trevor Bauer Article Image Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -200 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.299 8 36.5% 25.1% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.321 11 33.9% 19.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.320 12 28.2% 16.8% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.302 10 29.6% 19.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,500
FPPG: 27.1 FPPG: 13.7
Pitcher Rating: Pitcher Rank:
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 95.0 4.11 6.39 20.3% 7.4% 9.3% 48.2% 27.7% 27.2%
2016 28 110.4 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 9.0% 48.7% 30.8% 31.9%
2015 30 95.6 4.20 4.55 22.9% 10.6% 9.6% 39.2% 40.7% 31.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.14 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.335
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.50 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283

Bauer didn’t pitch great in his start against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but he did enough to get his team the win. He is a mediocre right-handed pitcher at best, and he wouldn’t be in the Indians’ starting rotation if Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco were healthy. He comes into this game as a massive underdog with the over/under set at 9.0 runs. This is an awful matchup on paper, and the fact that he has to face them in Toronto makes it even worse. Bauer can be avoided in all league formats.

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,000
FPPG: 28.8 FPPG: 14.8
Pitcher Rating: Pitcher Rank:
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.0 4.36 3.19 17.8% 9.3% 10.0% 54.3% 20.7% 35.5%
2016 32 96.9 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 9.3% 60.1% 20.4% 31.8%
2015 4 93.3 3.28 1.67 17.5% 5.8% 7.2% 64.1% 17.9% 21.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.12 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.98 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Stroman is the next best pitching option after Clayton Kershaw. He is the preferred SP2, and you can even use him in tournaments if you want to be contrarian on single pitcher sites. He had a nice season for the Blue Jays, posting a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4 percent. He is an elite ground ball pitcher who is usually good at limiting hard contact against him. Given the potential run support, I love his chances of picking up a win. The only issue is his matchup – the Indians are a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians head to Toronto with a 2-0 lead. Even though they are massive underdogs in Game 3, they have to like their chances in this series. They draw a decent matchup against Marcus Stroman, who allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters during the regular season. They also see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.388 0.285 39.5% 0.526 1B $3,300 1B $4,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.353 0.200 38.9% 0.333 2B $3,400 2B $4,100
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.351 0.139 26.8% 0.320 SS $3,200 SS $4,300
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.338 0.242 34.9% 0.178 1B $3,100 1B $3,400
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.351 0.146 25.5% 0.398 3B $3,300 3B/OF $3,500
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.333 0.156 28.1% 0.197 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.309 0.175 24.6% 0.381 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.378 0.225 40.3% 0.282 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.247 0.087 25.9% 0.307 C $2,100 C $2,300
Team Averages — 0.339 0.184 31.6% 0.325 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are in desperate need of a win, and they couldn’t possibly have a better matchup. Trevor Bauer is arguably the worst starting pitcher left in the postseason, and Toronto gets to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. They have the highest implied team total in the slate and it’s not even close. Stack the Blue Jays in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.282 0.102 25.5% 0.353 OF $2,600 OF $2,900
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.405 0.272 41.0% 0.395 3B $3,700 3B $4,500
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.370 0.264 37.5% 0.349 1B $3,900 1B $4,000
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.220 41.0% 0.443 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.325 0.173 29.9% 0.283 C $2,700 C $2,700
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.326 0.196 34.5% 0.290 SS $2,800 SS $3,800
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.205 38.6% 0.270 OF $2,400 OF $2,800
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.291 0.104 25.4% 0.326 OF $2,200 OF $2,900
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.247 0.143 27.9% 0.176 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,100
Team Averages — 0.327 0.187 33.5% 0.321 — — — —

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Russell Martin, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious