MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 18th - Page Two
Tampa Bay at Washington – 7:05 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Washington | ||||||||
 | Chris Archer |  | Doug Fister | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-122) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.587 | 0.266 | 0.24 | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.704 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.637 | 0.287 | 0.249 | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.656 | 0.288 | 0.137 |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Archer : FD: $10,500 — DK: $10,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 284.2 — SIERA: 3.33 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 7.9% — FB Rate: 30.1% — HR/FB: 7.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 41.1 — SIERA: 1.91 — K%: 35.5% — BB%: 3.9% — FB Rate: 29.0% — HR/FB: 7.4%
Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Archer has been dominant over the last month of play, posting a 1.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35.5%. He has basically been unhittable during that stretch. He deserves consideration as one of the top pitching options tonight, as he takes on a cold Nationals’ offense that is ranked 24th in wOBA over the last 14 days. The strikeout potential is also there, as the Nationals are ranked 22nd in strikeout rate (20.8%) against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:85.9
Doug Fister : FD: $7,400 — DK: $5,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 203.2 — SIERA: 4.14 — K%: 13.9% — BB%: 4.1% — FB Rate: 34.0% — HR/FB: 10.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: — SIERA: — K%: — BB%: — FB Rate: — HR/FB:
Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.282 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Fister will be making his first start back from injury. He has not had much success this season and he’ll likely be on some sort of pitch count tonight. The low strikeout rate is more than enough reason to avoid him, but add in a potential pitch count and he becomes one of the least appealing pitching options on the board.
Pitcher Rating:48.0
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Even though Doug Fister has struggled this season, there aren’t any standout fantasy options on the Rays tonight. They have a low team total and are playing in a pitcher’s park. Consider the Rays’ hitters secondary options.
Kevin Kiermaier
Salaries: FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 448 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 132
David DeJesus
Salaries: FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 423 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 125
Washington
Since the start of 2014, Chris Archer has held left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. He has quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League. The Nationals’ offense can be avoided tonight.
Miami at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM EST
| Miami | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Mat Latos |  | CC Sabathia | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-144) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.682 | 0.301 | 0.178 | SP vs. Left | 0.172 | 0.456 | 0.206 | 0.306 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.699 | 0.308 | 0.199 | SP vs. Right | 0.329 | 0.936 | 0.402 | 0.191 |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mat Latos : FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 152.0 — SIERA: 4.00 — K%: 18.9% — BB%: 6.9% — FB Rate: 37.3% — HR/FB: 7.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 12.1 — SIERA: 2.50 — K%: 34.0% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 30.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.91 (Rank: 5)
Analysis: Latos has pitched well in his last two starts, posting a 2.50 SIERA with a rare strikeout rate of 34.0%. He may have discovered his form, but I’d like to see a few more starts out of him before targeting him in daily fantasy. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 5th in wOBA (.323) against right-handed pitching and 2nd in wOBA (.337) in the last 14 days.
Pitcher Rating:47.0
CC Sabathia : FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 123.0 — SIERA: 3.37 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 32.5% — HR/FB: 18.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 3.52 — K%: 20.9% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 32.9% — HR/FB: 21.4%
Miami Marlins Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 17.0% (Rank: 2)
Pitchers per PA: 3.70 (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Sabathia continues to give up a ton of home runs. You wouldn’t think a HR/FB rate of 18.9% would be sustainable, but that’s exactly what it has been for Sabathia over the last two seasons. He has decent strikeout potential in this matchup, but the Marlins are actually a very good offense against left-handed pitching. On the season, they are ranked 2nd in wOBA (.342) against southpaws.
Pitcher Rating:66.2
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton : FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 182 — wOBA: 0.461 — ISO: 0.364 — wRC+: 198
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.604 — ISO: 0.604 — wRC+: 293
Analysis: Stanton is in play every time there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound, especially if that pitcher gives up a lot of home runs. Stanton owns a .461 wOBA and a .364 ISO against southpaws over the last two seasons. He is one of the top hitters at any position tonight, as he sees a major ballpark boost playing in Yankee Stadium.
Marcell Ozuna
Salaries: FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 169 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 126
Jeff Baker
Salaries: FD: $2,500 — DK: $2,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 1B/2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 170 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 135
NY Yankees
Mark Teixeira : FD: — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 543 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.247 — wRC+: 122
Last 14 Days: PA: 49 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.317 — wRC+: 183
Analysis: Teixeira has been red-hot recently with a .435 wOBA and a .317 ISO over the last two weeks. While Mat Latos has pitched well since coming back from injury, he’s not a pitcher that we need to avoid taking hitters against. All of the left-handed bats in the Yankees lineup are in play tonight with the short porch in right field.
Brett Gardner
Salaries: FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 631 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 115
Brian McCann
Salaries: FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 555 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 94
Chase Headley
Salaries: FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 577 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.122 — wRC+: 99
NY Mets at Toronto – 7:07 PM EST
| NY Mets | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Bartolo Colon |  | R.A. Dickey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-166) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.273 | 0.713 | 0.31 | 0.172 | SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.699 | 0.312 | 0.161 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.26 | 0.728 | 0.317 | 0.191 | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.745 | 0.326 | 0.19 |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon : FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 284.0 — SIERA: 3.72 — K%: 18.1% — BB%: 3.2% — FB Rate: 39.4% — HR/FB: 9.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 4.18 — K%: 16.5% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 39.8% — HR/FB: 10.3%
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.358 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Colon hasn’t been as sharp over the last month of play as he was earlier in the season. He has a very tough test in front of him tonight, as he has to face the hottest offense in baseball in one of the best hitter’s venues. I want no part of Colon against a Blue Jays’ offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA (.330) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:49.3
R.A. Dickey : FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 297.1 — SIERA: 4.26 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 8.1% — FB Rate: 36.9% — HR/FB: 11.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 3.87 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 7.4% — FB Rate: 35.4% — HR/FB: 14.7%
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Dickey is a fly-ball pitcher with an above-average HR/FB rate. That’s not a great combination for a pitcher. While he does draw a favorable matchup against the Mets, it’s hard to trust Dickey in anything other than a tournament. It could be a rare night where a Mets’ stack is in play.
Pitcher Rating:51.6
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Lucas Duda : FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 668 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 149
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.093 — wRC+: 86
Analysis: Duda offers great value tonight at first base, especially on FanDuel. He has a .382 wOBA and a .246 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against R.A. Dickey and he sees a major ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.
Travis d’Arnaud
Salaries: FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 377 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 114
Wilmer Flores
Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 399 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 100
Toronto
Jose Bautista : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 739 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.360 — wRC+: 184
Analysis:Bartolo Colon primarily throws fastballs at this stage in his career and you know who hits fastballs well? Jose Bautista. He has a .385 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and he has a .436 wOBA over the last 14 days. Heavily target the Blue Jays’ offense tonight at home.
Josh Donaldson
Salaries: FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 756 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 119
Edwin Encarnacion
Salaries: FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 640 — wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.276 — wRC+: 140
Jose Reyes
Salaries: FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 600 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.116 — wRC+: 107
Chicago Cubs at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Jason Hammel |  | Danny Salazar | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-164) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.679 | 0.299 | 0.198 | SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.679 | 0.3 | 0.312 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.644 | 0.282 | 0.255 | SP vs. Right | 0.275 | 0.777 | 0.337 | 0.246 |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jason Hammel : FD: $9,200 — DK: $9,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 256.1 — SIERA: 3.34 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 5.4% — FB Rate: 38.1% — HR/FB: 11.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.2 — SIERA: 2.70 — K%: 28.9% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 38.6% — HR/FB: 11.8%
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.92 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Hammel is one of the best pitchers that no one outside of Chicago or the DFS industry really knows about. He has been locked in over the last month with a 3.34 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 23.0%. He does draw a difficult matchup against the Indians though and the fact that he is such a large underdog is a bit of a red flag. There are better options at his price point tonight.
Pitcher Rating:66.0
Danny Salazar : FD: $9,100 — DK: $9,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 178.2 — SIERA: 3.06 — K%: 27.4% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 39.7% — HR/FB: 12.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.32 — K%: 27.1% — BB%: 9.3% — FB Rate: 32.9% — HR/FB: 11.5%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 25.4% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 24)
Pitchers per PA: 4.00 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Salazar is one of the highest strikeout pitchers in all of baseball. Since the start of 2014, he has a 3.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.4%. He draws a plus-matchup against the Cubs, who have the second-highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. The Cubs do take a lot of pitches, but the strikeout potential makes Salazar a terrific target in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Pitcher Rating:88.5
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Danny Salazar has been terrific all season. While the Cubs do have a lot of power in their lineup, they are secondary options tonight in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Use the Cubbies sparingly in tournaments.
Cleveland
Since the start of 2014, Jason Hammel has held left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. The Indians are sizable favorites in this game, but they are a little overpriced for their difficult matchup against Hammel.
Detroit at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST
| Detroit | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Justin Verlander |  | Mike Leake | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-114) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.686 | 0.304 | 0.195 | SP vs. Left | 0.28 | 0.799 | 0.349 | 0.141 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.315 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.151 | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.67 | 0.293 | 0.196 |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Justin Verlander : FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 211.0 — SIERA: 4.21 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 7.3% — FB Rate: 40.8% — HR/FB: 7.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 5.0 — SIERA: 6.48 — K%: 10.0% — BB%: 10.0% — FB Rate: 50.0% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Verlander threw 87 pitches in his first start of the season, giving up two runs while striking two batters out over five innings of work. We need a larger sample size from him before we can determine the type of form that he is in. My advice is to take a wait and see approach with Verlander over his next couple of starts.
Pitcher Rating:49.8
Mike Leake : FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 297.0 — SIERA: 3.69 — K%: 17.0% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 25.9% — HR/FB: 14.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 4.19 — K%: 14.4% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 19.4% — HR/FB: 22.2%
Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)
Pitchers per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Leake’s strikeout potential has not been there this season, which really hurts his fantasy appeal. He draws a very difficult matchup against the Tigers, who are ranked 4th in wOBA (.325) against right-handed pitching and 4th in wOBA (.332) over the last 14 days. As usual, we should avoid pitchers against the Tigers whenever possible.
Pitcher Rating:55.9
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Anthony Gose : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 402 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 97
Last 14 Days: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.157 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: -11
Analysis:Mike Leake is fairly effective against right-handed hitters. While I do think the Tigers will knock him around a bit, the best play here is Gose, as he has the splits in his favor. Leake has given up a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
Miguel Cabrera
Salaries: FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 727 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 157
J.D. Martinez
Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 561 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.223 — wRC+: 142
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier : FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 716 — wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 137
Last 14 Days: PA: 62 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 125
Analysis: Frazier is one of my favorite fantasy options at third base because he does everything well. He can hit left and right-handed pitching, he can steal bases, and he can hit for power. He draws a favorable matchup against Justin Verlander, who is an extreme reverse-splits pitcher.
Joey Votto
Salaries: FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 392 — wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.193 — wRC+: 140