MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 23rd

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Philadelphia at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM EST

Philadelphia NY Yankees
philadelphiamlb Sean O’Sullivan nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY (-235) 9.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.330 1.016 0.426 12.1% SP vs. Left 0.180 0.491 0.221 28.30%
SP vs. Right 0.253 0.704 0.309 10.7% SP vs. Right 0.324 0.923 0.397 20.00%
Batter Splits PHI BvP PHI vs L Batter Splits NYY BvP NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean O’Sullivan : FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 69.0 — SIERA: 4.89 — K%: 11.3% — BB%: 6.3% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 14.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 5.36 — K%: 9.0% — BB%: 7.1% — FB Rate: 38.2% — HR/FB: 12.8%

New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.366 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: There are some bad pitching options on the bump tonight, but none with a lower pitcher rating than Sean O’Sullivan. He is the largest underdog on the schedule, as he takes on a red-hot Yankees’ offense in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are ranked 4th in wOBA (.331) against right-handed pitching and 1st in wOBA (.366) over the last 14 days. He should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Pitcher Rating:23.8


CC Sabathia : FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 129.0 — SIERA: 3.32 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 32.2% — HR/FB: 19.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 3.26 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 3.6% — FB Rate: 31.7% — HR/FB: 21.9%

Philadelphia Phillies Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: The Phillies have ruined the outings of two quality starters in the last two days (Pineda and Wacha). They always say that you are never as good as you think you are, or never as bad as you think you are in baseball. While that may be true, the Phillies are pretty awful. Sabathia is an intriguing target tonight at home. He has pitched well over the last month of play with a 3.26 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 22.3%. He is the largest favorite on the board and he could be in line for the win, even if he gives up a few early runs. As crazy as it sounds, Sabathia is in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:76.4

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Maikel Franco : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.238 — ISO: 0.102 — wRC+: 46
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 191

Analysis: Franco has hit the ball well over the last two weeks, posting a .451 wOBA with a .240 ISO. His numbers against left-handed pitching haven’t been great over the last two seasons, but he has hit southpaws much better this season. He draws favorable matchup against CC Sabathia, who has given up a .397 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the past two seasons.


NY Yankees

Brett Gardner : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 648 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.186 — wRC+: 121
Last 14 Days: PA: 60 — wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.259 — wRC+: 168

Analysis: Gardner had another big fantasy outing last night, batting 4-for-4 with a home run, three RBI, and two runs. His hot streak should continue tonight against Sean O’Sullivan, who has given up a .426 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the past two seasons. The Yankees are one of the top offenses to stack tonight and I don’t mind targeting a few of them in cash games.

Alex Rodriguez

Salaries: FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 199 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.241 — wRC+: 155

Brian McCann

Salaries: FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 565 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 94

Carlos Beltran

Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 465 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 111

Chase Headley

Salaries: FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 592 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 100


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM EST

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Josh Smith pittsburghmlb Jeff Locke
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT (-135) 8.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left SP vs. Left 0.209 0.601 0.271 11.10%
SP vs. Right SP vs. Right 0.272 0.765 0.336 18.60%
Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs L Batter Splits PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Smith : FD: $3,000 — DK:

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 23)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Smith is making his major league debut tonight. In eight minor league starts this season, he has a 3.02 FIP with a strikeout rate of 17.7%. He was drafted in the 21st round and isn’t considered to be a top prospect. He is a small underdog tonight against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. We should take a wait and see approach before targeting him in daily fantasy.

Pitcher Rating:35.2


Jeff Locke : FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 205.1 — SIERA: 4.07 — K%: 17.0% — BB%: 7.8% — FB Rate: 28.9% — HR/FB: 12.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 3.95 — K%: 19.3% — BB%: 9.3% — FB Rate: 26.7% — HR/FB: 8.7%

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 16)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Locke has been a serviceable starter for the Pirates. Over the last month of play, he has a 3.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.3%. While some of the Reds best hitters are left-handed, they actually hit left-handed pitching very well as a team. On the season, they are ranked 5th in wOBA against southpaws. Locke is a favorite in this game, but the matchup is less than ideal. I’d much rather target CC Sabathia at a similar price point, as he has a much better matchup.

Pitcher Rating:57.3

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 224 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.244 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 53 — wOBA: 0.506 — ISO: 0.510 — wRC+: 227

Analysis: The only knock on Frazier tonight is his salary. He’s priced above $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Everything else lines up for a good outing. He has been swinging a hot bat over the last two weeks with a .506 wOBA and a .510 ISO. He also has a great track record against left-handed pitching and a favorable matchup against Jeff Locke.

Joey Votto

Salaries: FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 157 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 147


Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against rookie Josh Smith, but with all of the other great matchups tonight, it’s hard to pick out any single batters as elite plays. The Pirates are in play tonight, but the hitters are better secondary options.

Andrew McCutchen

Salaries: FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 763 — wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.217 — wRC+: 158

Josh Harrison

Salaries: FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 650 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 121


Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM EST

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb Alex Wood washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS (-153) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.255 0.649 0.290 24.7% SP vs. Left 0.246 0.687 0.303 22.80%
SP vs. Right 0.248 0.685 0.305 21.5% SP vs. Right 0.266 0.732 0.321 29.40%
Batter Splits ATL BvP ATL vs R Batter Splits WAS BvP WAS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood : FD: $7,800 — DK: $8,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 251.0 — SIERA: 3.47 — K%: 22.3% — BB%: 6.8% — FB Rate: 33.7% — HR/FB: 8.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.1 — SIERA: 3.84 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 6.6% — FB Rate: 38.5% — HR/FB: 8.1%

Washington Nationals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Despite having the same velocity as last season, Wood’s strikeout numbers are down this season. He is averaging two strikeouts less per nine innings and he is generating a much lower swinging-strike rate of 7.1%. Without a high strikeout rate, Wood is an average to above-average left-handed pitcher. He’s not on my radar tonight against the Nationals, who are ranked 10th in wOBA (.315) against left-handed pitching and 8th in wOBA (.337) over the last 14 days.

Pitcher Rating:61.0


Stephen Strasburg : FD: $8,000 — DK: $9,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 260.1 — SIERA: 2.85 — K%: 26.5% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 31.6% — HR/FB: 12.9%
Last 30 Days: IP: 4.2 — SIERA: 4.77 — K%: 12.0% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 30.0% — HR/FB: 33.3%

Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 8)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Strasburg has been dealing with numerous injuries this season that have either shortened his starts or kept him from taking the mound altogether. He has been cleared to pitch tonight, but we need to see a couple of quality starts before considering him in daily fantasy. At the moment, there are too many red flags surrounding Strasburg. It’s a shame too, as he gets to face a Braves’ offense that will be without Freddie Freeman.

Pitcher Rating:68.8

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman will likely be placed on the DL, which would be a huge blow to the Braves’ offense as a whole. Without him in the lineup, they are a much different offense. Even though Stephen Strasburg has struggled this season, there aren’t any Braves’ hitters that stand out as elite plays tonight.

Jace Peterson

Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 264 — wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 84


Washington

Alex Wood hasn’t had the same success as a starter that he did in 2014, but he has still held left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the past two seasons. The Nationals’ hitters are in play tonight, but they are better secondary options rather than elite plays.

Bryce Harper

Salaries: FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 191 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.225 — wRC+: 160

Anthony Rendon

Salaries: FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 187 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 123


Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST

Detroit Cleveland
detroitmlb David Price clevelandmlb Danny Salazar
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE (-110) 7.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.258 0.654 0.290 22.4% SP vs. Left 0.236 0.695 0.306 30.30%
SP vs. Right 0.230 0.638 0.280 26.7% SP vs. Right 0.272 0.768 0.334 24.80%
Batter Splits DET BvP DET vs R Batter Splits CLE BvP CLE vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price : FD: $10,700 — DK: $11,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 345.2 — SIERA: 2.94 — K%: 25.6% — BB%: 4.2% — FB Rate: 38.3% — HR/FB: 8.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 37.2 — SIERA: 3.02 — K%: 26.9% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 38.4% — HR/FB: 2.6%

Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.93 (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Price has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 3.02 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 26.9%. It’s always hard to dominate an opponent two times in a row, but Price made quick work of the Indians in their last meeting. He threw a complete game shutout while striking out eight batters. Price throws a ton of strikes, which should help him keep his pitch count down against an Indians’ offense that likes to take a lot of pitches. If they take a lot of pitches tonight, they are going to find themselves behind in the count. Price is not as safe as Madison Bumgarner tonight, but he has just as much upside.

Pitcher Rating:79.8


Danny Salazar : FD: $9,100 — DK: $9,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 183.1 — SIERA: 3.08 — K%: 27.2% — BB%: 7.0% — FB Rate: 39.9% — HR/FB: 12.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.2 — SIERA: 3.38 — K%: 26.0% — BB%: 8.7% — FB Rate: 34.6% — HR/FB: 14.3%

Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 18)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: Salazar has pitched well over the last two seasons, posting a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.2%. The strikeout potential is always there with Salazar, but he does walk quite a few batters. He also gives up quite a few home runs, as he is a fly-ball pitcher with an above-average HR/FB rate. With a matchup against the Tigers tonight, I’m going to fade Salazar completely. The Tigers are ranked 9th or better in wOBA against right-handed pitching, wOBA over the last 14 days, and pitches per plate appearance this season.

Pitcher Rating:74.7

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera : FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 739 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.213 — wRC+: 157
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.577 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 281

Analysis: I’m not sure what the Indians did to Miggy, but he is paying them back in full this season. In 37 at-bats against Cleveland, Cabrera has 24 hits (7 extra-base hits), 16 RBI, and 11 runs. Cabrera has been red-hot over the last two weeks and he also has a good track record against the reverse-splits pitcher Danny Salazar, batting 7-for-19 with two home runs.

J.D. Martinez

Salaries: FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 572 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.220 — wRC+: 142


Cleveland

David Price is tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, holding them under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons. This game has a better chance of turning into a pitcher’s duel than it does a shootout. With a game in Coors Field tonight, we can avoid the Indians’ offense altogether.


Toronto at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST

Toronto Tampa Bay
torontomlb R.A. Dickey tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBR (-158) 7.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.224 0.701 0.312 16.4% SP vs. Left 0.219 0.592 0.269 23.80%
SP vs. Right 0.242 0.737 0.323 18.9% SP vs. Right 0.241 0.641 0.289 24.70%
Batter Splits TOR BvP TOR vs R Batter Splits TBR BvP TB vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey : FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 304.2 — SIERA: 4.27 — K%: 17.8% — BB%: 8.3% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 12.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 4.05 — K%: 21.1% — BB%: 9.0% — FB Rate: 37.8% — HR/FB: 11.8%

Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 21)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Dickey has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 4.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.1%. While he appears to be trending in the right direction, he is still a very risky fantasy option. Dickey has a high walk rate and he gives up a lot of home runs. That’s a bad combination for a pitcher. Even in a favorable matchup against the Rays, Dickey should be restricted to tournament play tonight.

Pitcher Rating:48.1


Chris Archer : FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 289.2 — SIERA: 3.35 — K%: 24.2% — BB%: 8.0% — FB Rate: 29.8% — HR/FB: 7.2%
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.1 — SIERA: 2.07 — K%: 34.2% — BB%: 4.4% — FB Rate: 28.4% — HR/FB: 7.4%

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.360 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Archer has been absolutely dominant over the last month of play, posting a 2.07 SIERA with an elite strikeout rate of 34.2%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Blue Jays, but luckily he gets to face them at Tropicana Field rather than at the Rogers Centre. Archer is a sizable favorite in a game that features a low total of 7.0 runs. The oddsmakers like Archer in this matchup and with his strikeout potential, he deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:81.2

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Chris Archer has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. He owns a SIERA close to 2.00 over the last month of play. While the Blue Jays are one of the best offenses against right-handed pitching, they are overpriced for their matchup tonight against the Rays.


Tampa Bay

Kevin Kiermaier : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 464 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 14 Days: PA: 54 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 132

Analysis: Kiermaier had another solid fantasy outing last night. He has been swinging a hot bat over the last couple of weeks and he is still very cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against R.A. Dickey, who is a fly-ball pitcher with an above-average HR/FB rate.

Joey Butler

Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.185 — wRC+: 149

Evan Longoria

Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 722 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 101


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious