MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, October 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 4:37 PM EST
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Jason Hammel | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-125) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.321 | 16.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.693 | 0.303 | 22.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.677 | 0.296 | 22.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.700 | 0.303 | 24.10% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Lackey : FD: $9,000 — DK: $9,500
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 412.0 — SIERA: 3.79 — ERA: 3.23 — K%: 19.6% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.1 — SIERA: 3.15 — ERA: 1.78 — K%: 25.2% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 1.0
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Many thought that Lance Lynn would draw the start for the Cardinals in Game 4, but with their season on the line, manager Mike Matheny will give the ball to John Lackey on short rest. He was terrific in the series opener, striking out five batters in seven and one-third shutout innings. Lackey has been sharp ever since the All-Star break and we have seen his velocity increase, which has given him a higher strikeout rate. Lackey is a small underdog today against the Cubs on the road. While Lackey has had success against the Cubs this season, there is a generous wind blowing out to right field. Last night’s game in Wrigley was a perfect example of what can happen when the wind is blowing out in this ballpark.
Pitcher Rating: 65.9
Jason Hammel : FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 347.0 — SIERA: 3.47 — ERA: 3.61 — K%: 23.2% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 3.68 — ERA: 5.34 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 1.3
St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 14)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Hammel has been an above-average pitcher over the last two seasons, posting a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.2%. He stumbled a bit down the stretch of the regular season though, and he draws a difficult matchup against the Cardinals, who were ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Hammel may look enticing because he is a favorite and he is the cheapest pitching option on the board, but now that we are in the playoffs, the Cubs will be quick to pull him if he struggles early. The current Cardinals’ roster has had good success against Hammel in the past, batting a combined .328 in 136 plate appearances.
Pitcher Rating: 60.2
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Elite Plays:
The total for this game has jumped up to 8.5 runs in some sportsbooks. The Cardinals may be underdogs here, but they still have the second highest team total of the four teams on today’s schedule. They draw a favorable matchup against Jason Hammel, who has allowed a .303 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. With the wind blowing out to right field, the left-handed hitters have the edge here in Game 4.
Matt Carpenter : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 944 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 136
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.386 — wRC+: 204
Jason Heyward : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 917 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 103 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 146
Secondary Plays:
Stephen Piscotty : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 186 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 135
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 102
Matt Holliday : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 699 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 23 — wOBA: 0.233 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 44
Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 946 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 110
Last 30 Days: PA: 88 — wOBA: 0.278 — ISO: 0.064 — wRC+: 74
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have the highest team total on the schedule tonight, as they square off against John Lackey. Even though Lackey has pitched well against the Cubs this season, they are still the top offense to target in this two-game slate. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, as Lackey has allowed a .321 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 205 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.287 — wRC+: 162
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 909 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 106
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 935 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.254 — wRC+: 147
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 492 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 142
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 139
Starlin Castro : FD: $3,400 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 882 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 99
Last 30 Days: PA: 89 — wOBA: 0.453 — ISO: 0.293 — wRC+: 192
Jorge Soler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 387 — wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 26 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.391 — wRC+: 146
Miguel Montero : FD: $2,300 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 785 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 75 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.061 — wRC+: 104
LA Dodgers at NY Mets – 8:07 PM EST
| LA Dodgers | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Clayton Kershaw |  | Steven Matz | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-153) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.196 | 0.523 | 0.231 | 35.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.650 | 0.314 | 20.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.193 | 0.520 | 0.232 | 32.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.644 | 0.278 | 23.90% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LA vs L | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Clayton Kershaw : FD: $12,700 — DK: $14,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 427.1 — SIERA: 2.19 — ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.8% — BB%: 4.5% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 44.0 — SIERA: 2.28 — ERA: 1.84 — K%: 35.4% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 0.4
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Kershaw just can’t seem to have that dominant postseason start to quiet all the critics. In Game 1 against the Mets, he was cruising along until a tough seventh inning. He loaded the bases with two outs and was replaced by Pedro Baez, who immediately gave up a hit, allowing two more runs to score. Kershaw just hasn’t been able to avoid that big inning in the postseason, but a pitcher of his caliber is going to figure it out. Even on short rest, he is by far the top pitching option on the board on Tuesday. The Dodgers are in a win or go home situation (although they will head home for Game 5 anyway if they win) and they need a big outing from Kershaw.
Pitcher Rating: 97.9
Steven Matz : FD: $8,500 — DK: $9,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 2.27 — K%: 22.8% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.0 — SIERA: 3.50 — ERA: 2.86 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 5.2% — HR/9: 0.8
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 12)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Matz has had a terrific rookie season, posting a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8%. He still has only 35 major league innings under his belt though and he’ll be making his first postseason appearance tonight. The Mets have let Matz pitch deep into games when he is pitching well, but again this is the playoffs. If there is any sign of trouble early, they will not hesitate to pull him, as they do not want to head to Los Angeles to face Zack Greinke in a winner-take-all Game 5. I have Matz ranked as my second favorite pitcher in this two game slate, but I’m only targeting pitchers not-names Clayton Kershaw on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 66.8
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers have the second lowest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Steven Matz in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Matz has been a reverse-splits pitcher this season, but the sample size is still small (35.2 innings). The right-handed bats of Justin Turner and Howie Kendrick are both borderline elite plays, as they both have excellent numbers against southpaws in their careers.
Elite Plays:
Justin Turner : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 228 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 81 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 140
Howie Kendrick : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 284 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.044 — wRC+: 72
Secondary Plays:
A.J. Ellis : FD: $2,700 — DK: $2,900
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 136
Last 30 Days: PA: 63 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 125
Enrique Hernandez : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.444 — ISO: 0.257 — wRC+: 189
Last 30 Days: PA: 17 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.176 — wRC+: 111
NY Mets
The Mets draw the worst matchup on the board tonight, as they have to face Clayton Kershaw in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I will likely be fading this offense altogether, but if you have to have some exposure to the Mets, Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy are both secondary options. Cespedes continues to amaze, while Murphy homered off of Kershaw in Game 1.
Elite Plays:
NONE
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $4,300 — DK: $3,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 308 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.209 — wRC+: 90
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.295 — wRC+: 144
Daniel Murphy : FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 291 — wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 89
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 131