MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 10th - Page Two
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Rick Porcello |  | Wei-Yin Chen | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BAL (-115) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.744 | 0.325 | 0.155 | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.647 | 0.287 | 0.173 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.691 | 0.305 | 0.171 | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.753 | 0.328 | 0.187 |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rick Porcello (FD: $7800, DK: $6200)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 274.2 — SIERA: 3.93 — K%: 16.2% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 31.5% — HR/FB: 10.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 4.49 — K%: 15.4% — BB%: 6.2% — FB Rate: 43.4% — HR/FB: 11.6%
Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 23.3% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 25.9% (Rank: 28)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Porcello is coming off of a tough stretch of starts, posting a 4.49 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 15.4% over the last 30 days. While the Orioles’ offense has been slumping recently, they are still a competent offense that can put up runs quickly. On the season, Baltimore is ranked 12th in wOBA (.312) against right-handed pitching this season. Porcello is an easy avoid tonight in Camden Yards.
Pitcher Rating:55.6
Wei-Yin Chen (FD: $7300, DK: $7000)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 253.2 — SIERA: 3.86 — K%: 18.4% — BB%: 4.9% — FB Rate: 39.4% — HR/FB: 11.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 39.1 — SIERA: 3.32 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 3.7% — FB Rate: 42.2% — HR/FB: 12.2%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% (Rank: 1)
Pitchers per PA: 3.98 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Chen continues to fly under the radar, despite pitching well in each of the last two seasons. He has really stepped up over the last month of play, posting a 3.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.0%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Red Sox, who are ranked 25th in wOBA (.296) against left-handed pitching this season. Chen is not on my short list of potential targets in cash games, but he may deserve a look in tournament play.
Pitcher Rating:59.6
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Mike Napoli (FD: $3200, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 204 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 152
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 99
Analysis: Napoli is always in play when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. Since the start of 2014, he has a .393 wOBA and a .207 ISO against southpaws. Meanwhile, Wei-Yin Chen has given up a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters during that stretch. There are always a lot of great fantasy options at first base though, which makes Napoli a better tournament target than a cash game play.
Secondary Plays:
Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 236 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.170 — wRC+: 115
Xander Bogaerts (FD: $2600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 228 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 117
Baltimore
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Adam Jones (FD: $3400, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 702 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 104
Chris Davis (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 532 — wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 99
Chicago Cubs at Detroit – 7:08 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Shane Greene | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-106) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.201 | 0.564 | 0.257 | 0.292 | SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.825 | 0.362 | 0.149 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.22 | 0.573 | 0.253 | 0.253 | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.667 | 0.297 | 0.252 |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta (FD: $9900, DK: $9800)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 227.2 — SIERA: 2.81 — K%: 27.0% — BB%: 6.1% — FB Rate: 28.2% — HR/FB: 6.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 2.50 — K%: 28.5% — BB%: 3.9% — FB Rate: 28.6% — HR/FB: 16.7%
Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.286 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 12)
Pitchers per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Arrieta is one of the best pitchers in baseball that is not a household name. Since the start of 2014, he has a 2.81 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 27.0%. He has great command and he typically limits the damage against him with an ability to pitch out of jams. The issue with Arrieta is his matchup. The Tigers are ranked 7th in wOBA (.320) and 9th in strikeout rate (19.1%) against right-handed pitching and they are one of the best hitting teams at home. Arrieta is in play, but I don’t feel confident in rostering him in cash games.
Pitcher Rating:77.8
Shane Greene (FD: $6800, DK: $4700)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 143.2 — SIERA: 3.82 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 7.6% — FB Rate: 29.7% — HR/FB: 12.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.0 — SIERA: 4.32 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 5.2% — FB Rate: 32.0% — HR/FB: 18.2%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 4.01 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Greene’s strikeout numbers are down drastically this season, which typically is a red flag for daily fantasy baseball purposes. While the Cubs have the highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season, they are ranked 1st in pitches per plate appearance. So while they do strike out often, they make the opposing pitcher work with each at bat. Greene is an average fantasy option at best tonight.
Pitcher Rating:60.3
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4500, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 638 — wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 157
Last 14 Days: PA: 48 — wOBA: 0.524 — ISO: 0.350 — wRC+: 236
Analysis: Since the start of last season, Shane Greene has given up a .362 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Over that same time period, Rizzo has a .403 wOBA and a .265 ISO against right-handed pitching. Rizzo is also swinging a very hot bat over the last 14 days with a .524 wOBA and a .350 ISO. He continues to be criminally under-owned, which makes him a very strong tournament play tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Kris Bryant (FD: $4200, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 147
Miguel Montero (FD: $2600, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 587 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 102
Detroit
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4800, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 702 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 152
LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Jered Weaver |  | Erasmo Ramirez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-108) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.747 | 0.328 | 0.184 | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.72 | 0.324 | 0.188 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.643 | 0.285 | 0.158 | SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0 | 0.359 | 0.188 |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jered Weaver (FD: $7700, DK: $7100)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 289.2 — SIERA: 4.26 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 6.2% — FB Rate: 46.3% — HR/FB: 9.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.42 — K%: 14.4% — BB%: 3.8% — FB Rate: 45.2% — HR/FB: 10.6%
Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Weaver has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any qualified starter, which really limits his upside in daily fantasy. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.4%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Rays, but he’s not a pitcher that is on my radar in cash games or tournaments. He just doesn’t have enough upside to make up for the few runs that he’ll likely give up against the Rays.
Pitcher Rating:52.3
Erasmo Ramirez (FD: $5700, DK: $5300)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 123.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 9.7% — FB Rate: 38.2% — HR/FB: 12.1%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 3.85 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 9.2% — FB Rate: 33.8% — HR/FB: 11.5%
LA Angels of Anaheim Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Ramirez is one of the more erratic pitchers in baseball. Since the start of 2014, he has walked nearly 10% of the batters that he has faced. We don’t mind targeting pitchers with a high walk rate, as long as it is accompanied by a high strikeout rate. Unfortunately, that’s not the case with Ramirez. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight against the Angels, who are finally starting to score some runs. Over the last 14 days, they are ranked 3rd in wOBA (.338).
Pitcher Rating:47.9
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout (FD: $5000, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 719 — wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.285 — wRC+: 167
Last 14 Days: PA: 50 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.378 — wRC+: 146
Analysis: Mike Trout is the best hitter in baseball and with Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, and Jose Bautista all playing in the early slate, he’s the clear cut number one option in the outfield tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against the Erasmo Ramirez, who has given up .356 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. With the lack of aces on the mound tonight, it’s very easy to fit Trout into your lineups.
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols (FD: $3700, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 703 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 134
Kole Calhoun (FD: $2600, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 586 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 123
Tampa Bay
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 425 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 131
David DeJesus (FD: $2300, DK: $3100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 404 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 131
San Diego at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST
| San Diego | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Tyson Ross |  | Williams Perez | ||||||
| RIGHT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-108) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.691 | 0.31 | 0.238 | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.75 | 0.329 | 0.185 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.619 | 0.281 | 0.25 | SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.64 | 0.309 | 0.237 |
| Batter Splits | SD vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tyson Ross (FD: $9200, DK: $9300)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 265.1 — SIERA: 3.26 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 9.6% — FB Rate: 21.2% — HR/FB: 10.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 35.0 — SIERA: 3.08 — K%: 23.8% — BB%: 9.3% — FB Rate: 16.7% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Ross is having another outstanding season for the Padres. While he does struggle with his command at times, his high strikeout rate more than makes up for it. Over the last month of play, Ross owns a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8%. We typically like to target Ross at home, but given the lack of pitching options tonight, he makes for a strong play against the Braves. This isn’t an ideal matchup for strikeouts, but the Braves offense is ranked right around the major league average in wOBA (.306) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:78.8
Williams Perez (FD: $5800, DK: $4900)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 25.1 — SIERA: 4.30 — K%: 21.2% — BB%: 13.3% — FB Rate: 23.6% — HR/FB: 11.8%
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 3.98 — K%: 22.2% — BB%: 12.0% — FB Rate: 23.2% — HR/FB: 6.3%
San Diego Offense
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 26)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Perez has pitched pretty well in his first stint in the major leagues. He owns a 4.30 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 21.2%. Perez is coming off of a rough outing against the Pirates in which he gave up four earned runs on five hits and five walks. He’s not the safest cash game play tonight, but he does provide good upside in a matchup against the Padres, who are ranked 26th in wOBA (.294) and 25th in strikeout rate (21.8%) against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:57.0
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Will Venable (FD: $2500, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 503 — wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.119 — wRC+: 91
Last 14 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.264 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 69
Analysis: If Venable continues to hit the way that he has over the last week, his price will skyrocket here shortly. He has five multi-hit games in his last seven outings, including a three-hit performance last night. His numbers on the season may not look great, but he’s swinging a hot bat and he draws a favorable matchup Williams Perez, who has given up a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Matt Kemp (FD: $2800, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 632 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 127
Atlanta
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman (FD: $3800, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 671 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 152
Andrelton Simmons (FD: $2200, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 660 — wOBA: 0.287 — ISO: 0.094 — wRC+: 80
San Francisco at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST
| San Francisco | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Tim Hudson |  | Matt Harvey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-150) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.739 | 0.325 | 0.109 | SP vs. Left | 0.197 | 0.643 | 0.281 | 0.299 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.698 | 0.305 | 0.181 | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.607 | 0.266 | 0.255 |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Hudson (FD: $6600, DK: $5900)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 258.2 — SIERA: 3.77 — K%: 14.5% — BB%: 4.6% — FB Rate: 25.0% — HR/FB: 11.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 3.98 — K%: 13.9% — BB%: 5.7% — FB Rate: 24.0% — HR/FB: 13.0%
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 13)
Pitchers per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Much like Jered Weaver, Tim Hudson is still an effective pitcher, however, very few of his outs come by the way of the strikeout. Since the start of 2014, he has a 3.77 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 14.5%. Hudson typically pitches better at home, but he gets to pitch in the friendly confines of Citi Field tonight. He also gets to face a Mets’ offense that was no-hit last night by Chris Heston. Hudson is worth a look as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating:55.9
Matt Harvey (FD: $11000, DK: $10700)
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 73.2 — SIERA: 2.80 — K%: 27.6% — BB%: 4.1% — FB Rate: 38.6% — HR/FB: 12.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.0 — SIERA: 2.51 — K%: 31.6% — BB%: 5.3% — FB Rate: 38.5% — HR/FB: 16.7%
San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.70 (Rank: 27)
Analysis: Harvey is the premier pitching option on the board tonight. On the season, he has a 2.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%. He has been knocked around in a couple of his starts, but that’s not a big concern, given his immense strikeout potential. The Giants are a very capable offense, but once again, there are very few aces that will take the mound tonight. Harvey is the chalk play in cash games tonight at home.
Pitcher Rating:91.9
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
NONE
NY Mets
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 645 — wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.251 — wRC+: 150
Curtis Granderson (FD: $3000, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 677 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 111