MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, October 21st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Kansas City at Toronto – 4:07 PM EST
| Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Edinson Volquez |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-145) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.707 | 0.311 | 18.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.672 | 0.293 | 17.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.296 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.706 | 0.310 | 20.70% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Edinson Volquez : FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 391.0 — SIERA: 4.28 — ERA: 3.31 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 5.18 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 1.4
Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.367 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Volquez changed his game plan against the Blue Jays right before the first pitch of Game 1. At least that’s how the story is told. Rather than attacking the hitters inside, he decided to work on the edge on the plate outside to keep hitters guessing. I suppose it doesn’t matter what the game plan was, because it worked to perfection. Unfortunately for Volquez, this time he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Not only that, but the Blue Jays’ offense is going to make some adjustments. There are some quality pitchers on the mound today, which means I will be avoiding Volquez in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating: 52.0
Marco Estrada : FD: $8,900 — DK: $7,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 325.0 — SIERA: 4.36 — ERA: 3.71 — K%: 18.8% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 1.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 5.83 — ERA: 3.09 — K%: 12.2% — BB%: 8.9% — HR/9: 1.4
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Estrada wasn’t happy with the way that he pitched in Game 1 of this series, but the Blue Jays would gladly take a repeat performance from him today. He struck out six batters in five and one-third innings, while giving up three earned runs. His matchup against the Royals is less than ideal though, as they were ranked eighth in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The Royals have also scored 22 runs combined in the last two games of this series. Even with all of that working against him, Estrada is still the largest favorite on the board today. He is worth a look on both single and multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating: 63.3
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals’ offense has been firing on all cylinders in this series and they are now one game away from back-to-back trips to the World Series. They draw a decent matchup against fly-ball pitcher Marco Estrada and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The Royals do not concede strikes and they will certainly be swinging at pitches early in the count today.
Elite Plays:
Eric Hosmer : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 782 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.163 — wRC+: 124
Last 30 Days: PA: 118 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 101
Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,700 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 759 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 108
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.115 — wRC+: 92
Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 835 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 80
Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 921 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.069 — wRC+: 74
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.240 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 46
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 629 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 113
Last 30 Days: PA: 96 — wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.272 — wRC+: 159
Mike Moustakas : FD: $3,100 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 769 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 149
Alex Gordon : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 723 — wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 120
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 86
Salvador Perez : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 834 — wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 100
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 103
Toronto
The Blue Jays have the highest team total today and they need a big offensive outing if they are going to stay alive in this series. They have the matchup and the firepower to do so, as they face Edinson Volquez at home. The Blue Jays struggled against Volquez in Game 1 of this series, but I’m expecting a much different result with this game being played in Toronto. The usual suspects are all in play here.
Elite Plays:
Josh Donaldson : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,100
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1080 — wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.210 — wRC+: 138
Chris Colabello : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 398 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 56 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.216 — wRC+: 126
Ben Revere : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 897 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.066 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 111
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 928 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.288 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 189
Jose Bautista : FD: $4,400 — DK: $5,300
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1061 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.266 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.359 — wRC+: 191
Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 694 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.172 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 88
Russell Martin : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 74 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 132
Kevin Pillar : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,800
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 537 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 92
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 156
Ryan Goins : FD: $2,300 — DK: $2,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 477 — wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 76
Last 30 Days: PA: 100 — wOBA: 0.292 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 81
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 8:07 PM EST
| NY Mets | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Steven Matz |  | Jason Hammel | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-115) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.650 | 0.314 | 20.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.693 | 0.303 | 22.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.644 | 0.278 | 23.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.700 | 0.303 | 24.10% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Steven Matz : FD: $8,900 — DK: $10,000
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 35.2 — SIERA: 3.63 — ERA: 2.27 — K%: 22.8% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.0 — SIERA: 3.50 — ERA: 2.86 — K%: 20.6% — BB%: 5.2% — HR/9: 0.8
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 26.2% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Matz had a mediocre start in his first postseason appearance, allowing three earned runs in five innings of work against the Dodgers in the NLDS. He will get the ball tonight, as the Mets look to close out their series against the Cubs. This is a big spot for the rookie and he is basically pitching with house money, because the Mets are nowhere close to being in that must-win territory. While that may help take some of the pressure off, he is still a risky fantasy option. The Cubs have a high team total and the wind is blowing straight out to center field. The strikeout potential is there in this matchup, but the Cubs are a patient team at the plate, so Matz will need to have great command if he is going to pick up the win.
Pitcher Rating: 78.4
Jason Hammel : FD: $7,900 — DK: $8,100
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 347.0 — SIERA: 3.47 — ERA: 3.61 — K%: 23.2% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 3.68 — ERA: 5.34 — K%: 21.9% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 1.3
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)
Analysis: Hammel was knocked around in the first inning of his postseason start against the Cardinals, but he settled down after that. The problem was the Joe Maddon was quick to turn to his bullpen, as he took him out after only three innings of work. That’s going to be a concern again tonight, as the Cubs are facing an elimination game at home. If Hammel struggles out of the gate, they will be very quick to replace him. However, if he gets off to a good start and the Cubs can get him some run support, I could easily see him being in line for the win. All four pitchers have red flags today, we just have to decide which risks we are willing to live with.
Pitcher Rating: 72.2
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets’ offense has been terrific in this series, as they have knocked around every starter that the Cubs have thrown at them. They draw a favorable matchup today against Jason Hammel and they see a nice boost with the wind blowing straight out to center field at Wrigley. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, as Hammel has allowed a .303 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Elite Plays:
Daniel Murphy : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,400
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 880 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 118
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.264 — wRC+: 131
Curtis Granderson : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1009 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 155
David Wright : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 582 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.099 — wRC+: 91
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 141
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes : FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 1005 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 132
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.295 — wRC+: 144
Travis d’Arnaud : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 528 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.180 — wRC+: 109
Last 30 Days: PA: 83 — wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 75
Michael Conforto : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.265 — wRC+: 148
Last 30 Days: PA: 82 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 109
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs need one of their patented 5-home run outings more than ever. Luckily, they have the matchup and ballpark to do it in. They are facing rookie Steven Matz, who wasn’t very sharp in his first major league postseason start. They are also playing at home in what should be a very loud Chicago fan base. With the wind blowing out in center, there are some great fantasy options in this lineup.
Elite Plays:
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 144 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 139
Kyle Schwarber : FD: $3,400 — DK: $4,100
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 61 — wOBA: 0.217 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 30
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 92
Dexter Fowler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 277 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.140 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 89
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,700
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 368 — wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 155
Last 30 Days: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 110
Starlin Castro : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 252 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.089 — wRC+: 97
Last 30 Days: PA: 89 — wOBA: 0.453 — ISO: 0.293 — wRC+: 192
Jorge Soler : FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 113 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 95
Last 30 Days: PA: 26 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.391 — wRC+: 146