NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 1st
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Tim Frazier | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 11 | DvP | 13 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 13 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 22 | 10 | 29 | 5 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have won seven of their last ten games and have the second best record in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Washington to take on a short-handed Wizards’ team that is ranked around the league average in pace of play, points allowed per game, and defensive efficiency. Detroit has an implied total of 103.8 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate. Their total is slightly below their season average, but I like the fact that the spread is set at 1.5 points.
Reggie Jackson is averaging 1.04 FP/min this season, but he has one of the best backup point guards on his heels. Jackson rarely plays more than 30 minutes a game, which really limits his upside as a DFS play. In a big slate, I will be avoiding both Jackson and Smith, as I don’t want to worry about predicting this rotation. Avery Bradley remains underpriced on FanDuel. While the Wizards have been tough on shooting guards this season, Bradley is viable in tournaments at $5,500.
Andre Drummond is having a career year, but he has really struggled in this matchup in the past. In his last four meetings against the Wizards, he has failed to eclipse the 30 fantasy point mark. It’s worth noting that he has only played more than 26 minutes in one of those four games, but the lack of production is concerning. Drummond’s appeal is going to hinge on his projected ownership. If he’s going to be popular, I will fade him completely. If he is expected to be low owned, I’ll fire up a few shares in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Jon Leuer (Out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (9 of 16)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,900 | $6,000 | $11,600 | 28.7 | -1.6 | 27.7 | -2.6 | 1.04 | 25.5% | 57.0% | 12 | 13 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,500 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 25.6 | -4.8 | 31.7 | -0.7 | 0.81 | 21.1% | 53.9% | 3 | 15 |
| Stanley Johnson | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.4 | -0.3 | 29.6 | -0.9 | 0.59 | 12.7% | 48.1% | 28 | 1 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,600 | $6,300 | $13,300 | 30.0 | 0.1 | 32.9 | -2.1 | 0.91 | 21.4% | 58.8% | 10 | 14 |
| Andre Drummond | $8,800 | $8,800 | $16,200 | 42.8 | -1.6 | 33.1 | -0.6 | 1.29 | 17.5% | 57.1% | 11 | 23 |
| Ish Smith | $4,100 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.5 | 1.4 | 19.7 | 0.1 | 0.99 | 24.9% | 53.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (FD), Andre Drummond (GPP)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have lost five of their last ten games and could fall back to .500 overall with a loss tonight. They clearly aren’t the same team without John Wall, so they are just trying to keep the ship afloat. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons is far from ideal, as Detroit is ranked 20th in pace of play, seventh in points allowed per game, and 11th in rebounding differential. The Wizards’ implied total of 102.3 points is nearly six points below their season average.
Tim Frazier has played well in spot starts in the past, but Tomas Satoransky has cut into his production in the last two games. We can find better values in a slate this size. Bradley Beal has been a big letdown over the last two games, but that can be said about all of the starters. I’m not overly concerned about a matchup against Avery Bradley and we know that Beal sees a 5% usage boost without Wall on the floor. This is a great bounce-back spot for Beal and I love the fact that his price has come down a few hundred dollars.
Otto Porter sees the biggest FP/min boost without Wall on the floor. He is clearly the number two option offensively, which is enticing given the fact that he’s one of the best small forwards in basketball when it comes to peripheral stats (blocks, steals, rebounds). Porter is affordable, he should see minutes in the mid 30s, and the Pistons have struggled to contain small forwards. Marcin Gortat has been quiet in the last two games, but should see 28-30 minutes tonight. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last four games against Andre Drummond.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (14 of 16)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Frazier | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 13.5 | -0.6 | 17.2 | 1.4 | 0.78 | 14.3% | 47.9% | 13 | 21 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,000 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 36.4 | -2.6 | 34.7 | -1.4 | 1.05 | 26.2% | 56.9% | 12 | 22 |
| Otto Porter | $7,000 | $6,500 | $13,200 | 32.2 | -1.5 | 32.9 | -2.4 | 0.98 | 16.9% | 64.0% | 23 | 10 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 17.3 | -2.4 | 22.6 | 2.8 | 0.77 | 17.7% | 50.7% | 7 | 29 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,600 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 24.8 | -5.5 | 29.7 | -3.5 | 0.83 | 13.4% | 59.0% | 7 | 5 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.1 | 5.2 | 28.1 | -1.0 | 0.82 | 15.9% | 55.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter
Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat
Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 227.5 |  | Vegas Total | 227.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -10.0 | Vegas Spread | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 118.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 30 | 19 | 24 | 16 | DvP | 11 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 28 | 30 | 27 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 22 | 12 | 1 | 1 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are hoping to have everyone in their lineup tonight, although Klay Thompson is listed as questionable. Even with the injuries that they have dealt with, this team has won seven of their last ten games. Tonight they travel to Orlando to take on a Magic team that is ranked sixth in pace of play, 28th in points allowed per game, and 26th in rebounding differential. The Warriors have a massive implied total of 118.8 points, which is easily the highest of any team on the schedule tonight.
The only position that the Magic defend well is center, which works out well for the Warriors. You can make an argument for each of the big four from Golden State and if Thompson ends up sitting out, we can give the other three superstars a small boost. My favorite of the bunch is Stephen Curry, who gets to face a Magic team that is ranked 29th against point guards. Curry is priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and makes a nice pivot off of Russell Westbrook in tournaments.
Kevin Durant is only averaging 45 fantasy points per game this season. I suppose saying “only” isn’t fair, but it’s hard to pay over $10,000 for him given his current level of production. He does have an exploitable matchup against the Magic, but I prefer using him on DraftKings ($9,600). Draymond Green minutes and production are both on the rise, averaging 38 fantasy points in his last four games. The Magic struggle to defend the paint and have the fifth worst rebounding differential in the NBA.
Notable Injuries
Klay Thompson (Questionable)
Stephen Curry (Probable)
Kevin Durant (Probable)
Andre Iguodala (Probable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.3 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.8 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (5 of 16)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,700 | $9,900 | $19,000 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 32.6 | 1.6 | 1.37 | 28.7% | 63.9% | 29 | 22 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,900 | $6,900 | $12,800 | 31.9 | 3.8 | 33.0 | 0.3 | 0.97 | 21.0% | 60.6% | 30 | 28 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,100 | $9,600 | $18,500 | 45.0 | -0.1 | 34.6 | 7.7 | 1.30 | 24.8% | 64.7% | 19 | 30 |
| Draymond Green | $8,100 | $7,400 | $13,900 | 34.7 | 3.3 | 31.5 | 3.0 | 1.10 | 15.7% | 57.2% | 24 | 27 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,900 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 14.6 | 2.1 | 1.02 | 13.4% | 56.8% | 16 | 7 |
| Andre Iguodala | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.9 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 1.2 | 0.69 | 11.0% | 57.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Omri Casspi | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 1.01 | 14.2% | 66.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (GPP), Draymond Green (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (Cash), Draymond Green (Cash), Kevin Durant (DK), Klay Thompson
Orlando Magic
The Magic have been an inconsistent team this season. They have shown up against good opponents at times and have been absent against bad opponents at other times. We never quite know what to expect from Orlando, but they have plenty of upside tonight if they can keep this game close. The Warriors play at a very fast pace and this game projects to be one of the fastest paced games on the schedule. The Magic have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the third highest on the board.
Speaking of inconsistency, Elfrid Payton minutes and production have been all over the map this season. The good news is that he seems to be over the ankle injury that was nagging him earlier in the year. He has played at least 29 minutes and has scored at least 45 fantasy points in two of his last three games. It’s scary to admit, but Payton is my favorite tournament play of the slate. If you are a risk tolerant person, I would even consider using him in cash games on DraftKings ($6,100).
I don’t know who did it, but someone broke Evan Fournier. After a scorching start to the season, he has failed to score more than 25 fantasy points in seven straight games. At this point, he’s a tough sell in anything other than a large-field tournament. Jonathon Simmons has not played well in his last two starts, but should see 30+ minutes in an uptempo game against a Warriors’ defense that is ranked 22nd against small forwards. I’m more likely to play Simmons than I am to play Fournier in this spot.
Aaron Gordon had his best game of the season against the Thunder and it just so happened to come on the day when I said he hadn’t lived up to the preseason hype. Perhaps Gordon reads the Grind Down and was motivated. I’m fine going back to the well in tournaments, but the volatility makes him a scary cash game target. Nikola Vucevic always piques my interest in tournaments. He typically plays 32-34 minutes in close games, which gives him plenty of upside at this price point.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 108.0 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.0 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,200 | $6,100 | $13,100 | 28.4 | 6.5 | 26.2 | 1.2 | 1.08 | 21.1% | 51.6% | 11 | 6 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,400 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 28.1 | -8.7 | 32.0 | -1.8 | 0.88 | 20.8% | 58.8% | 9 | 22 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $5,100 | $5,100 | $11,200 | 20.3 | -4.1 | 25.6 | 3.3 | 0.79 | 20.5% | 58.2% | 22 | 12 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,900 | $7,600 | $14,500 | 36.5 | 9.2 | 32.9 | 3.1 | 1.11 | 19.0% | 62.6% | 28 | 1 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,900 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 35.0 | 2.9 | 29.8 | 0.4 | 1.17 | 21.9% | 55.2% | 19 | 1 |
| Terrence Ross | $4,500 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 19.2 | -1.7 | 26.2 | -4.1 | 0.73 | 14.6% | 50.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Jonathon Simmons (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Jonathon Simmons (Cash), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.5 |  | Vegas Total | 216.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 112.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 10 | DvP | 20 | 16 | 2 | 21 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 25 | 7 | 22 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 9 | |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and are back above the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. They draw a subpar matchup tonight against the Raptors, who play well at home and who are ranked inside the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Indiana’s implied total of 104.5 points is the fifth highest of the slate, but it is nearly four points below their season average.
Kyle Lowry has picked up his play on both ends of the floor recently. The Raptors are now ranked fifth in DvP against point guards, which makes Darren Collison a fairly easy fade on the road. I’ll take Ricky Rubio over Collison in both cash games and tournaments. Victor Oladipo draws the best matchup of the five starters. DeMar DeRozan is not a good defender and the Raptors are ranked 23rd against shooting guards as a team. I’m not sure I will end up using Oladipo in cash games, but he’s a tremendous tournament play. I’d like to play Lance Stephenson given his recent form, but his price is a bit high on FanDuel.
Bojan Bogdanovic continues to be productive, but it’s worth noting that the Raptors have been tough on small forwards. OG Anunboy is a very good perimeter defender. Bogdanovic still offers nice value at small forward, but is far from a core play tonight. The Pacers’ frontcourt hinges on the avilability of Myles Turner. If he is active, I will be avoiding the situation. If he is ruled out, Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis would both become elite tournament plays and viable cash game targets as well.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (11 of 16)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,600 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 27.9 | -1.1 | 31.9 | 0.1 | 0.87 | 18.3% | 58.1% | 5 | 10 |
| Victor Oladipo | $8,600 | $8,000 | $14,500 | 39.9 | 3.0 | 33.1 | -0.9 | 1.20 | 26.9% | 58.5% | 23 | 25 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.2 | -2.2 | 30.9 | 3.8 | 0.69 | 16.4% | 64.6% | 1 | 7 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 28.5 | 1.2 | 33.2 | -0.5 | 0.86 | 16.3% | 52.1% | 13 | 22 |
| Myles Turner | $7,000 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 31.9 | -3.1 | 28.9 | -0.5 | 1.10 | 18.3% | 56.0% | 10 | 28 |
| Lance Stephenson | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.0 | 9.8 | 21.5 | 5.4 | 0.88 | 17.7% | 49.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 27.0 | -1.1 | 25.4 | 0.4 | 1.06 | 18.5% | 62.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP), Thaddeus Young & Domantas Sabonis (if Turner is out)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Bojan Bogdanovic, Lance Stephenson (DK)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have been playing their best basketball of the season and come into the game as 7.5-point favorites at home against the Pacers. Indiana has been one of the sneakier matchups for fantasy production this season, ranking ninth in pace of play and 22nd in points allowed per game. Toronto has an implied total of 112 points, which is the second highest of the slate and nearly two points above their season average.
Kyle Lowry is clearly over whatever was plaguing him early in the season. In his last four games, he is averaging 48 fantasy points per contest. His minutes have also been trending upward ever since Delon Wright went down with his injury. Lowry is one of my favorite point guard targets on DraftKings ($8,100) and he deserves consideration on the other DFS sites as well. DeMar DeRozan is slightly underpriced on FanDuel. He leads the team in true usage and it’s not like we can only play one of the two members of this backcourt.
The best way to beat the Pacers this season has been down low. They have struggled against both power forwards and centers and are ranked 19th in rebounding differential. Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, and Pascal Siakam are all on my short list of tournament targets. Of the three, Ibaka has the most appeal from a cash game perspective. His minutes are the most secure and he is priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Lucas Nogueira (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 110.4 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.6 (4 of 16)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,500 | $8,100 | $16,500 | 35.5 | 12.9 | 32.5 | 2.4 | 1.09 | 21.4% | 60.7% | 20 | 7 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $7,800 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 36.9 | -8.7 | 34.3 | -0.9 | 1.08 | 27.7% | 56.5% | 16 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 13.0 | -2.4 | 18.8 | 1.2 | 0.69 | 12.1% | 62.0% | 2 | 28 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,900 | $4,800 | $10,300 | 22.9 | 0.4 | 26.9 | -0.6 | 0.85 | 16.3% | 57.9% | 21 | 7 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 21.0 | -1.9 | 20.3 | -1.9 | 1.03 | 17.3% | 63.1% | 30 | 9 |
| Norman Powell | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.4 | 3.8 | 22.9 | 1.5 | 0.80 | 17.6% | 54.5% | N/A | N/A |
| Pascal Siakam | $5,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 21.0 | 4.1 | 0.91 | 14.5% | 57.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (FD), Serge Ibaka (FD)
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK), Serge Ibaka (DK), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Pascal Siakam (DK)
Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.0 |  | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.3 | Implied Team Total | 96.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 15 | DvP | 18 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 8 | 26 | 18 | 25 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 17 | 13 | 27 | 25 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have been one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. They play at a slow pace, they are involved in a number of blowouts, and they have an inconsistent rotation. This does not help us predict fantasy production in any way, shape, or form. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on a Bulls’ team that is ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding differential. The Kings’ implied total is the fourth lowest of the slate, but it’s nearly four points above their season average.
The good news for Sacramento is that the spread for the game is set at only 1.5 points. If this stays close, we should see a full complement of minutes from their starters. This isn’t something I want to count on, but I have some interest in a few Kings’ players. At point guard, I prefer De’Aaron Fox over George Hill, although neither stands out as a great option. Garrett Temple minutes have been trending upward and the Bulls have struggled against wing players. Temple is a viable punt play if you need the savings at small forward.
Zach Randolph has had some great outings this season. With at least two days of rest this season, Randolph is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game. The Kings haven’t played since Tuesday, so I feel pretty confident in Randolph tonight against a beatable Bulls’ frontcourt. Willie Cauley-Stein is averaging 34 fantasy points in his last four games and is still only $5,400 on DraftKings. He’s not an elite value, but I like his upside for tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 94.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.2 | -4.5 | 26.3 | -1.5 | 0.81 | 22.0% | 44.4% | 27 | 5 |
| George Hill | $4,700 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 18.0 | -5.8 | 26.0 | -1.9 | 0.69 | 16.3% | 54.7% | 20 | 8 |
| Garrett Temple | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 16.9 | 2.3 | 25.2 | 4.1 | 0.67 | 14.6% | 52.0% | 21 | 26 |
| Skal Labissiere | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.2 | -0.3 | 17.8 | 0.1 | 0.91 | 19.7% | 50.1% | 20 | 18 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 24.4 | 6.6 | 24.1 | 1.4 | 1.01 | 23.7% | 52.6% | 15 | 25 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,300 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 25.3 | 9.2 | 25.4 | 2.5 | 0.99 | 18.0% | 53.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Buddy Hield | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,900 | 21.4 | -2.2 | 22.6 | -3.2 | 0.95 | 22.3% | 54.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Zach Randolph
Secondary Plays – Garrett Temple, Willie Cauley-Stein (DK)
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after losing a heartbreaker against the Nuggets last night. They haven’t been great in back-to-backs this season, but come into the game as 1.5-point underdogs against a bad Kings’ team. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differential. The pace of this game doesn’t look great, but keep in mind that these are two of the worst defenses in basketball when it comes to efficiency.
Kris Dunn has a lot of potential, but he hasn’t been able to show it consistently. His price has come up, but I like his upside against a turnover-prone Kings’ backcourt. Dunn has some tournament appeal at what should be sub-10% ownership. Justin Holiday and Denzel Valentine are also viable in tournaments, as this game will likely get overlooked as a whole. If we are playing the Price is Right, Holiday is the better buy on FanDuel and Valentine is the better buy on DraftKings.
The Bulls’ frontcourt has been frustrating, but it’s hard to ignore their matchup. The Kings are ranked 16th against power forwards, 28th against centers, and are the worst rebounding team in basketball. If you feel confident in Lauri Markkanen, Robin Lopez, or Bobby Portis, this is the right matchup. I typically only make one or two lineups per site, so I may not have any exposure to the Bulls’ bigs. However, if I were making five or more, I would start sprinkling these three throughout my lineups.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Mirotic (Out)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 95.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.8 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (5 of 16)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.7 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 27.1 | -1.4 | 26.8 | 0.4 | 1.01 | 23.8% | 47.3% | 18 | 30 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 27.2 | -0.4 | 34.2 | -1.9 | 0.80 | 19.6% | 49.3% | 14 | 17 |
| Denzel Valentine | $6,300 | $5,700 | $12,300 | 23.2 | 2.3 | 28.7 | 1.7 | 0.81 | 17.8% | 50.3% | 10 | 13 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,800 | $6,000 | $12,700 | 28.3 | -5.7 | 30.6 | -1.4 | 0.92 | 19.7% | 52.5% | 16 | 27 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,600 | 23.8 | -2.8 | 29.7 | -1.7 | 0.80 | 19.1% | 51.9% | 28 | 25 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 24.4 | -2.4 | 22.4 | 0.1 | 1.09 | 21.7% | 55.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Jerian Grant | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 21.5 | 1.7 | 25.9 | -0.2 | 0.83 | 19.4% | 52.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (GPP), Justin Holiday (FD), Denzel Valentine (DK), Lauri Markkanen (DK), Robin Lopez, Bobby Portis
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192.0 |  | Vegas Total | 192.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.5 | Vegas Spread | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.3 | Implied Team Total | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Mario Chalmers | Dillon Brooks | Chandler Parsons | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 5 | DvP | 1 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 14 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | |
San Antonio Spurs
These two teams just squared off in San Antonio and will do it again in Memphis. I had little to no interest in that game and the change of venue isn’t going to make a big difference. We have two teams that are ranked in the bottom three in pace of play and in the top six in points allowed per game. The Spurs are listed as 4.5-point favorites, but their implied total of 98.3 points is the fourth lowest of the slate and nearly four points below their season average.
The Spurs now have three active point guards and I want no part of that rotation in an eight game slate. With Rudy Gay back from injury, I also have little to no interest in Danny Green or Kyle Anderson. LaMarcus Aldridge has the best matchup of the five starters (JaMychal Green 26th of 30 in DRPM rating at power forward) and put up 52 fantasy points against the Grizzlies the other night. I’m still hesitant to pay a premium for him in a pace-down game. Pau Gasol has not fared well against his younger brother in his career, but his price is affordable and his production has been trending upward.
Notable Injuries
None
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.8 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (10 of 16)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.97 | 23.5% | 42.9% | 17 | 1 |
| Danny Green | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 23.4 | -2.3 | 29.0 | -1.5 | 0.81 | 15.5% | 52.6% | 6 | 6 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,800 | $5,500 | $12,100 | 26.4 | 6.0 | 27.9 | 2.1 | 0.95 | 14.9% | 56.4% | 6 | 13 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,900 | $8,500 | $17,400 | 40.6 | 3.0 | 33.3 | 0.4 | 1.22 | 26.3% | 57.3% | 11 | 26 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,000 | $6,000 | $11,700 | 29.4 | 5.2 | 25.6 | 2.9 | 1.15 | 18.5% | 60.4% | 5 | 19 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.4 | 4.1 | 22.1 | 1.8 | 1.06 | 22.0% | 55.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Patty Mills | $4,600 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.3 | -0.3 | 26.4 | -0.6 | 0.73 | 18.3% | 48.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are looking to snap a nine game losing streak. If they don’t stop the bleeding soon, they will have a tough time making it back to the playoffs. They draw an awful matchup tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked 29th in pace of play, second in points allowed per game, and sixth in rebounding differential. The Grizzlies’ implied total of 93.8 points is the lowest on the board and five points below their season average.
There are basically only two viable options in my eyes. If Mario Chalmers is ruled out again, Tyreke Evans would draw the start at point guard and potentially play 35 minutes. This is not a great matchup, but Evans has really played well this season and would have a very high usage without Chalmers. Marc Gasol would also become slightly more interesting. He does not have a good track record against his older brother, but has shown as high of a floor as any center in basketball this season.
Notable Injuries
Mario Chalmers (Questionable)
Chandler Parsons (Questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 93.8 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.3 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Chalmers | $6,000 | $5,700 | $12,200 | 20.8 | 0.4 | 24.8 | 3.0 | 0.84 | 18.3% | 47.2% | 1 | 14 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.6 | -5.2 | 29.7 | 1.3 | 0.63 | 12.7% | 53.0% | 10 | 1 |
| Chandler Parsons | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 16.0 | 0.9 | 20.0 | 0.2 | 0.80 | 15.8% | 65.1% | 16 | 2 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 19.3 | 4.1 | 24.9 | 5.2 | 0.78 | 14.2% | 71.2% | 12 | 16 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,700 | $7,800 | $14,000 | 38.9 | -6.3 | 34.4 | -0.6 | 1.13 | 24.4% | 52.8% | 3 | 3 |
| Tyreke Evans | $6,900 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 31.4 | 0.6 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 1.10 | 25.9% | 58.9% | N/A | N/A |