NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 5th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Charlotte Hornets
miaminba Vegas Total 194.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 94.50 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 14 15 22 26 11 Opp. Season 2 3 17 2 7
Last 3 Weeks 15 14 30 5 8 Last 3 Weeks 1 6 17 6 11


Miami Heat

Record: 28-22 — Road: 12-13 — Last 10: 5-5

Happy Friday everyone. In the words of Rebecca Black, “gotta get down on Friday.” The Heat have won five of their last ten games and head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets tonight. This is a decent matchup for fantasy production, as the Heat are projected to score 0.8 points more than their average points per game this season.

The Hornets have been an exploitable matchup this season, ranking 13th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Tyler Johnson and Chris Andersen have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, but that doesn’t make a big impact on fantasy production. Hassan Whiteside returned from his injury on Wednesday, scoring 33 fantasy points in 17 minutes of action. The Heat are going to ease him back into action and for our purposes, he should be avoided until he sees a full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade

Wade deserves consideration tonight thanks to his recent form. Over his last five games, he is averaging 39.5 fantasy points with an elite 30.7 turnover-adjusted usage rate. His price has come up across the industry though, and he draws a mediocre matchup tonight against Nicolas Batum.

FD — $7,800 — SG
DK — $7,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 30.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 39.5

Luol Deng

Deng has quietly played well recently, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He should be a safe bet to see minutes in the low 30s tonight against a Hornets’ defense that is ranked 22nd against small forwards this season.

FD — $5,000 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 18.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 26.7

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 24-25 — Home: 17-8 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hornets have won six of their last ten games and are now only a game below .500 overall. They are right in the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they host the Heat in what will be a pace-down game for Charlotte. The Hornets are only projected to score 97.8 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board and four points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Heat are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are right there with the Spurs, Cavaliers, and Jazz as teams that we try to avoid taking players against. On the season, They are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Kemba Walker is expected to return to the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers.

Elite Plays

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

MKG has really played well in his first three games of the season, averaging 28.4 fantasy points in 32.8 minutes per contest. He is no longer an elite value play, but he still offers good value at a position that can be tough to fill. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Heat at home.

FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 15.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 32.8
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 28.4

Secondary Plays

NONE


Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Orlando Magic
laclippersnba Vegas Total 206.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd -4.5 Vegas Sprd 4.5
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Tobias Harris Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 23 5 21 19 9 Opp. Season 4 12 11 6 23
Last 3 Weeks 24 3 29 28 7 Last 3 Weeks 3 10 15 13 24


Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 32-17 — Road: 15-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have won six of their last ten games and own an impressive road record of 15-9 on the season. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites tonight against the Magic in Orlando. This is a pretty mediocre matchup, but the Clippers are projected to score 104 points tonight. Not only is that the fourth highest team total on the board, but it is also slightly higher than their average points per game this season.

The Magic have an average defense, ranking between 11th and 18th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Blake Griffin remains out for the Clippers, which means a higher usage rate for Chris Paul and a higher rebounding rate for DeAndre Jordan. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford have both had nice outings recently, but there are better values at shooting guard tonight.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul

In his last four games where he has played at least 34 minutes, Paul has scored 41, 42, 51, and 62 fantasy points. The Clippers have been involved in an unusual number of blowouts recently, but that should be a problem tonight against the Magic. Paul also draws a nice matchup against a Magic team that is ranked 23rd against point guards this season.

FD — $9,700 — PG
DK — $9,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 38.3

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

On most nights, Jordan would be an elite play. However, center is loaded with options tonight. Jordan comes into this game in good form, averaging 41.5 fantasy points over his last five games. He should be a safe bet to post another double-double tonight and given his floor, he is a viable cash game option. I have him as a borderline elite play on sites that allow you to roster two centers.

FD — $8,400 — C
DK — $7,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 11.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 41.5

Orlando Magic

Record: 21-27 — Home: 13-11 — Last 10: 1-9

The Magic continue to struggle. They have now lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to 21-27 overall. Vegas is expecting them to keep tonight’s game against the Clippers close though, which helps the fantasy appeal of their players. The Magic are projected to score 100.8 points, which is slightly higher than their average points per game this season.

The Clippers have an underrated defense. On the season, they are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Magic do have a relatively high team total tonight though, which puts a few players in play tonight at home. I wouldn’t call any of the Magic players must plays, but they are certainly on my radar.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic is one of the many centers that deserve consideration tonight. His minutes, production, and usage rate are all up over his last five games. While DeAndre Jordan is an elite shot blocker, he is not an elite defender. On the season, the Clippers have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to centers.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 23.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 36.1

Victor Oladipo

Oladipo is coming off of a monster outing against the Thunder, putting up 55 fantasy point in 41 minutes of action. While he is still a little too inconsistent to list as an elite play, he definitely deserves a look in tournaments tonight. The Clippers have been mediocre against shooting guards this season.

FD — $6,600 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 32.3
FP/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 32.8

Aaron Gordon

The biggest question with Gordon is his minutes. If you feel confident that he will see 30+ minutes, you could treat him as an elite play. However, he seems to be on a short leash with Scott Skiles, which makes him more of a tournament play in my eyes. The upside is certainly there though, as evidenced by his 47 fantasy points against the Celtics a few games back.

FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 28.3
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Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Atlanta Hawks
indiananba Vegas Total 205.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 99.50 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Jordan Hill Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 8 23 14 13 25 Opp. Season 5 19 3 12 20
Last 3 Weeks 2 23 12 19 20 Last 3 Weeks 19 11 8 16 16


Indiana Pacers

Record: 26-23 — Road: 11-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pacers have lost six of their last ten games and are now only three games above .500 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks in Atlanta. The Pacers are only projected to score 100 points, which is 2.9 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

The Hawks have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA, but they are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. As you can see from the Pacers’ team total, this is not the best matchup for fantasy production. Ian Mahinmi has been ruled out tonight though, which gives a sizable boost to both Myles Turner and Jordan Hill. Paul George production has been down over the last few weeks. Given his price point and inconsistency, I will be avoiding him tonight against the Hawks.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Myles Turner

Turner was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments on Wednesday night (shoutout to Jimmy Butler for winning that award). He struggled all game, but did have a few buckets in garbage time right at the end of the game. I don’t mind going back to the well again tonight, but given his elevated price point, I don’t consider him a must start.

FD — $5,600 — PF
DK — $6,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 28.1

Jordan Hill

Hill also let a lot of people down on Wednesday. He got into foul trouble early and then ended up sitting the entire fourth quarter. He is worth a look again tonight, but I see him as more of a tournament play. His ownership should be down, but the upside is there against a Hawks’ team that has the worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

FD — $4,600 — C
DK — $5,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 13.3
Min/Game — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 24.9
FP/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 22.0

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 29-22 — Home: 16-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks have lost five of their last ten games, but they are 16-8 at home and 29-22 overall. They are listed as 5-point favorites tonight against the Pacers at home. The Hawks are projected to score 105 points, which is the fifth highest team total and 2.8 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Pacers have been stout defensively this season, ranking tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the tough matchup on paper, the Hawks have a relatively high team total. The issue with the Hawks is twofold – they have a deep rotation and a well-balanced offense. Given the size of the slate, none of the Hawks’ players stand out as elite plays tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap’s numbers over his last five games are a bit misleading. He played less than 20 minutes in two of those five games. He should see minutes in the low-30s tonight against the Pacers, but I’m a little worried about his ankle. If he were completely healthy, he would be an elite play.

FD — $7,800 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 28.5
FP/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 24.5


Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Washington Wizards
philadelphianba Vegas Total 215.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 112.5
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 17 26 28 9 12 Opp. Season 21 18 30 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 30 19 23 26 9 Last 3 Weeks 29 9 24 15 29


Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 7-42 — Road: 3-23 — Last 10: 3-7

The Sixers have won three of their last ten games, but they are only 3-23 on the road this season. They are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against the Wizards in Washington. This game has some sneaky fantasy appeal, as the total is set at a whopping 215 points. The Sixers are projected to score 102.5 points, which is 7.7 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Wizards have not fared well on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have defended bigs well this season, which makes Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel easy fades tonight. Washington has struggled wing players though, ranking 26th against shooting guards and 28th against small forwards.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington

Covington has played well over his last five games, averaging 26.2 fantasy points in 31.8 minutes per contest. His price is a bit steep on DraftKings, but he can be considered a borderline elite play tonight on FanDuel. He draws a terrific matchup against the Wizards, who have really struggled to contain wing players this season.

FD — $5,000 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 26.2

Washington Wizards

Record: 21-26 — Home: 10-16 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wizards have been a disappointment this season, but it’s hard to string together wins when you have new players added to the injury report seemingly every week. They should be able to pick up a win tonight at home against the Sixers. The Wizards are projected to score 112.5 points, which is the highest team total on the board and 9.9 points higher than their average points per game.

The Sixers are always one of the most favorable matchups in terms of potential fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The big question here is whether or not the Sixers will be able to keep tonight’s game close. The spread is set at nine points. The upside is obviously there for the Wizards, but I’d feel more comfortable in the starter’s minutes if this game was being played in Philadelphia.

Elite Plays

John Wall

Dollar for dollar, I prefer Chris Paul over Wall tonight, but both are in play. The major risk with Wall is the potential blowout. However, the Wizards have the highest team total on the board and if this game stays close, Wall could have one of the best fantasy outings of any player tonight. I’m certainly not against using both Paul and Wall in the same lineup.

FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.6 | Last Five Games: 26.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 41.3 | Last Five Games: 46.6

Secondary Plays

Otto Porter

Porter’s minutes have been way down recently, but he played 32 minutes the other night against the Warriors. This could be a nice time to buy low on the versatile wing man, especially in tournaments. His ownership should be way down and he could crack the 30 minute mark in a favorable matchup against the Sixers.

FD — $5,300 — SF
DK — $5,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 14.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 23.3
FP/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 18.4


Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Sacramento Kings Brooklyn Nets
sacramentonba Vegas Total 212.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 108.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 102.00 Team Pace 96.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Marco Belinelli Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 28 20 23 20 24 Opp. Season 26 29 20 29 27
Last 3 Weeks 26 16 25 29 5 Last 3 Weeks 16 27 9 23 23


Sacramento Kings

Record: 21-28 — Road: 8-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Kings have won five of their last ten games and find themselves in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. Tonight they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Kings are projected to score 108.8 points here, which is the third highest team total on the board and 2.2 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Nets have struggled defensively this season, ranking 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. There are quite a few names on the Kings’ injury report tonight, but DeMarcus Cousins, Rajon Rondo, and Ben McLemore are all expected to play. Marco Belinelli may draw another start at shooting guard, which would give him a small fantasy boost.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins has to be considered one of the top overall plays tonight, but given the other options at center, I see him as more of a secondary play tonight. Cousins is a more attractive play on DraftKings, solely because he is listed as a power forward. The problem on DK is that there aren’t as many value plays as there are on FD.

FD — $11,000 — C
DK — $11,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 31.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 35.1
FP/Game — Season: 46.7 | Last Five Games: 43.5

Marco Belinelli

As long as Belinelli draws another start, he is worth a look tonight at shooting guard. Even with Ben McLemore active against the Bulls, Belinelli played 36 minutes and scored 25 fantasy points. With a lack of expensive targets at shooting guard, it is a good night to punt the position and spend up elsewhere.

FD — $4,000 — SG
DK — $4,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 18.0
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 21.8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 12-38 — Home: 8-20 — Last 10: 1-9

The Nets have lost nine of their last ten games and are now 12-38 on the season. Vegas expects them to keep tonight’s game close though, as the spread is set at only 5.5 points. The Nets draw an extremely favorable matchup against the Kings. They are projected to score 103.3 points, which is 7.7 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Kings are my favorite team to target players against in daily fantasy. They play at a fast pace, they are ranked dead last in points allowed per game, and they don’t blow very many teams out. The Nets have been an easy team to avoid in daily fantasy for the better part of a month, but that all changes tonight against the Kings. The one player that I am looking to fade here is Joe Johnson. Everyone is going to be chasing the points after his big outing against the Pacers. While I like the matchup, Johnson puts up too many duds to be considered in cash games.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young

It has been at least a month since Young has been listed as an elite play. He just hasn’t produced at a high level recently. However, his minutes are trending in the right direction, averaging 33.2 over his last five games. Tonight is the night to buy low on Young, as the Kings have allowed the second most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 25.7

Wayne Ellington

Ellington is in play for two reasons – his minutes and his matchup. He has scored at least 18 fantasy points in each of his last four games and he should see 30+ minutes against the Kings, who are ranked 29th against shooting guards this season. Once again, it is a good night to punt the shooting guard spot.

FD — $3,900 — SG
DK — $4,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 12.1 | Last Five Games: 18.6

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez

Lopez should get some attention as a viable play on DraftKings tonight. However, given the other options at the position, I don’t consider him a must play. In his last three games against DeMarcus Cousins, he has committed four, five, and five fouls. Cousins is one of the best at drawing fouls. While I like the upside, I will limit my Lopez exposure to tournaments.

FD — $8,900 — C
DK — $7,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 43.2

Donald Sloan

Of the two Nets’ point guards, I will give the edge to Sloan. Over his last five games, he is averaging 27.8 minutes per contest. If you could guarantee that he would play 28+ minutes tonight, I’d certainly give him a hard look against the Kings.

FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $4,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 13.9
Min/Game — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 17.8


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious