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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-14 03:31:54

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Philadelphia 76ers
charlottenba Vegas Total 211.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 103.3
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 17 16 23 14 25 DvP 17 25 19 11 26
DRPM -0.01 -1.48 2.55 0.23 1.40 DRPM -0.90 0.75 1.69 0.32 2.42

Charlotte Hornets

Happy Friday the 13th everyone!

The Hornets are losers of three straight games, but will look to end their skid tonight against the Sixers. This game has sneaky shootout potential with a 5.5-point spread and an over/under of 211.5 points. The Sixers have not fared all that well defensively this season, ranking below the league average in points allowed per game and rebounding differential. Charlotte has an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate. Kemba Walker is better at home than he is on the road and his price is above $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He carries some GPP appeal if you are stacking this game, but there are a handful of point guards I prefer in a points-per-dollar sense. Nicolas Batum will return to the lineup tonight and he could immediately step in and play 35+ minutes with Jeremy Lamb out. Batum is a great tournament play, as he should go under-owned in his first game back from an ankle injury. Marco Belinelli and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist may pick up a few extra minutes in Lamb’s absence as well. Assuming Cody Zeller is able to suit up, we may want to avoid the Hornets’ frontcourt altogether, despite a favorable matchup against the Sixers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,100 $8,300 1.10 33.6 0.9 37.1 0.9 30.4% 2.6% 17 -0.01
Nicolas Batum $7,500 $6,900 0.96 34.5 -9.4 33.3 -14.0 23.3% 3.1% 16 -1.48
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,700 $5,000 0.75 29.3 0.9 22.0 0.2 14.4% -2.7% 23 2.55
Marvin Williams $4,700 $4,900 0.76 27.2 0.0 20.6 6.7 17.1% 1.9% 14 0.23
Cody Zeller $4,900 $4,500 0.87 26.3 6.3 22.9 2.4 16.2% -4.2% 25 1.40
Frank Kaminsky $4,000 $4,100 0.82 24.5 -1.8 20.0 -3.9 21.0% -3.8% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (Cash), Kemba Walker, Marco Belinelli, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won two games in a row and five of their last ten. They come into tonight’s game as 5.5-point underdogs against the Hornets with an implied total of 103.3 points. The matchup may not look great on paper, but the Sixers’ implied total is 4.1 points above their season average. It appears that the Sixers have found their starting point guard, at least for the immediate future. T.J. McConnell has been tremendous over his last five games, playing at least 34 minutes and scoring at least 25 fantasy points in each outing. This is a slate that is filled with viable point guard options, but McConnell is certainly in play at a price of $5,400 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings. Robert Covington has also seen his playing time spike recently, averaging over 35 minutes in his last three games. His volatility is tough to handle in a cash game setting though, and his matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist leaves much to be desired. The top play here is obviously Joel Embiid, who has scored at least 33 fantasy points in seven straight games. Embiid has already been ruled out of tomorrow’s game, so we don’t have to worry about the Sixers limiting his minutes any more than the restriction he’s already on.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,400 $5,300 0.80 22.0 13.6 17.5 13.7 19.0% -3.8% 17 -0.90
Nik Stauskas $3,600 $3,800 0.59 26.3 -0.5 15.5 0.1 16.4% -1.7% 25 0.75
Robert Covington $5,500 $5,800 0.76 30.2 4.9 22.8 5.6 17.8% -2.3% 19 1.69
Ersan Ilyasova $5,900 $5,900 0.89 27.4 1.8 24.5 4.1 21.7% 8.3% 11 0.32
Joel Embiid $7,800 $8,100 1.35 25.1 0.5 33.8 3.7 34.9% 0.3% 26 2.42

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – T.J. McConnell, Robert Covington (GPP), Nerlens Noel

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Toronto Raptors
brooklynnba Vegas Total 221.5 torontonba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Spread 15.0 Vegas Spread -15.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 118.3
Pace +/- -0.8 Pace +/- 5.5
Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 2 10 19 10 DvP 30 28 30 28 30
DRPM 0.61 -2.12 0.67 1.61 -0.49 DRPM -0.16 -2.80 -1.08 2.27 -0.39

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are in a difficult spot tonight. They are playing on the road against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and this is the second half of a back-to-back. It comes as no surprise that the Nets are 15-point underdogs here, although they still have a respectable implied total of 103.3 points. We need to keep an eye out for an update on Isaiah Whitehead, who hurt his knee last night against the Pelicans. If he is unable to suit up, Spencer Dinwiddie would draw the start and potentially push for 30+ minutes against a beatable Raptors’ backcourt. Sean Kilpatrick would also see a boost in minutes and he is coming off of a nice outing last night against New Orleans. If Whitehead is able to suit up, that would take Dinwiddie out of consideration, but Kilpatrick would still be a borderline elite value play at shooting guard. I’m not particularly interested in any of the other Nets’ players tonight. I typically like to target Brook Lopez on DraftKings, but he logged 32 minutes last night and would be the first starter to see the bench if this game turns into a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 $3,600 0.71 16.7 7.3 11.9 7.4 18.5% -4.3% 11 0.61
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 $5,000 0.75 26.8 2.0 20.1 3.3 20.9% 0.1% 2 -2.12
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,000 0.61 22.9 -4.0 14.1 -3.9 16.2% -2.5% 10 0.67
Trevor Booker $5,400 $5,400 0.97 27.3 -3.3 26.5 -1.7 17.1% -4.4% 19 1.61
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,600 1.10 29.3 2.8 32.2 -1.2 27.5% -0.8% 10 -0.49
Sean Kilpatrick $4,100 $4,400 0.84 27.3 -1.8 23.0 -2.8 24.6% 2.2% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Spencer Dinwiddie (if Whitehead is out)

Secondary Plays – NONE

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have lost five of their last ten games, but should be able to pick up an easy win tonight at home against the Nets. This game features the largest spread on the slate and is basically the only game that we need to factor in a potential blowout. This would typically be an easy spot to just fade Toronto altogether, but they draw the best possible matchup for fantasy production. On the season, the Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. If the Raptors’ starters see anywhere close to a full complement of minutes, they should easily exceed value. Kyle Lowry is averaging 45.8 fantasy points in his last three games and gets to face a Nets’ defense that is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 53 fantasy points in his last three games and may draw the best individual matchup of any shooting guard. Bojan Bogdanovic has a DRPM of -2.80 this season. DeMarre Carroll may not have a high usage rate, but he has played at least 34 minutes in four straight games. If he plays 30+ minutes tonight, it will be hard for him to not reach value at $3,800 on FanDuel. If Patrick Patterson is unable to suit up, Lucas Nogueira would become an excellent value play if he draws the start. Terrence Ross is a viable punt play in tournaments. And finally, Jonas Valanciunas makes a nice GPP play against a Nets’ team that is ranked 26th in rebounding differential and 30th in blocked shots allowed per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $9,200 $8,500 1.07 37.5 4.6 40.0 5.8 26.5% -3.2% 30 -0.16
DeMar DeRozan $9,400 $8,700 1.15 35.7 4.4 41.0 12.0 34.2% 1.1% 28 -2.80
DeMarre Carroll $3,800 $4,500 0.68 26.5 10.0 18.0 6.2 15.0% -0.5% 30 -1.08
Patrick Patterson $3,800 $3,500 0.63 28.0 -6.5 17.7 -6.0 12.3% -1.3% 28 2.27
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $5,900 0.97 26.9 1.0 26.0 3.1 18.3% 2.2% 30 -0.39
Lucas Nogueira $3,600 $3,300 0.81 20.2 5.3 16.4 1.7 9.7% 1.3% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK), DeMarre Carroll (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (FD), DeMarre Carroll (DK), DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Lucas Nogueira (if Patterson is out)

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Houston Rockets
memphisnba Vegas Total 216.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 104.3 Team Total 111.8
Pace +/- 2.4 Pace +/- -3.3
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Montrezl Harrell
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 22 22 26 17 DvP 3 6 1 3 1
DRPM 1.51 -1.38 1.84 -0.59 -0.05 DRPM -1.52 1.93 0.43 1.19 1.17

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have lost five of their last ten games and have dropped all the way down to seventh in the Western Conference standings. They have a good chance to gain some ground on one of the best teams in the West with a win over the Rockets tonight. Memphis comes into the game as 7-point underdogs, but they have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is 5.1 points above their season average. Patrick Beverley has the second best DRPM of any point guard in the NBA this season (trailing only Chris Paul), which hurts the fantasy appeal of Mike Conley. With that said, the Grizzlies implied total is high and Conley is averaging 37.4 minutes in his last three games. I will have a few sprinkles of Conley in tournaments tonight on DraftKings. DFS players hate to use Tony Allen, but I can’t think of a better spot for him. He could see extra minutes tonight since he’ll be tasked with defending James Harden and then he’ll draw Harden’s defense on the other end of the floor. Marc Gasol is too cheap on DraftKings at only $6,900. If Beverley is able to contain Conley, the Grizzlies will need production out of somewhere. Logically, that will likely lead to a higher usage for Gasol. Zach Randolph is playing more minutes in the last two weeks and is averaging 35.6 fantasy points in his last three games. The expected pace of play doesn’t exactly fit his style of play, but he still grades out as a solid option at power forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,900 $7,100 1.04 32.0 5.4 33.3 8.2 29.5% 0.6% 14 1.51
Tony Allen $4,500 $4,500 0.74 27.9 3.1 20.7 -1.3 17.2% -2.5% 22 -1.38
Chandler Parsons $3,500 $3,400 0.62 17.7 -1.0 10.9 2.5 19.9% 2.7% 22 1.84
JaMychal Green $4,500 $4,200 0.73 29.5 -1.6 21.7 -5.6 14.1% -1.0% 26 -0.59
Marc Gasol $8,200 $6,900 1.06 33.9 2.9 36.0 -3.1 27.8% -3.7% 17 -0.05
Zach Randolph $5,900 $5,700 1.11 23.3 6.4 26.0 9.6 29.2% -1.7% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Tony Allen (FD), Marc Gasol (DK)

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (DK), Tony Allen (DK), Marc Gasol (FD), Zach Randolph

Houston Rockets

The Wolves ended the Rockets’ nine game winning streak the other night, but Houston will look to start a new one tonight. Their matchup against the Grizzlies looks awful on paper, but the Rockets have an implied total of 111.8 points, which is the second highest in the slate. Their offense has been so efficient that even in a pace-down situation, Vegas expects them to put up points. The only fantasy option that really stands out from Houston is James Harden. Tony Allen is still a good defender, but Harden is matchup-proof and he is averaging 64.5 fantasy points in his last three games. Harden’s price is below $12,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and the spread is close enough that we can project him to play 36-38 minutes. I’m not going to jam Harden into my lineups like I usually do, but I will certainly play him if I can find enough viable value plays to fill in around him. Patrick Beverley is a bit too expensive, Montrezl Harrell draws a tough matchup against Marc Gasol, and Eric Gordon is playing his first game back from injury. Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson are intriguing tournament options, but they are secondary plays at their respective positions.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,200 $5,100 0.82 31.0 1.6 25.3 -6.1 15.7% -0.8% 3 -1.52
James Harden $11,600 $11,400 1.48 36.6 1.5 54.1 10.4 39.0% 5.8% 6 1.93
Trevor Ariza $5,600 $5,200 0.76 34.2 6.3 25.9 0.3 14.9% -1.0% 1 0.43
Ryan Anderson $5,300 $5,300 0.73 31.1 4.4 22.6 1.5 16.9% -2.1% 3 1.19
Montrezl Harrell $5,200 $5,000 0.92 18.8 6.0 17.3 10.7 17.9% -0.5% 1 1.17
Eric Gordon $5,900 $5,500 0.85 30.6 2.7 25.9 4.4 23.8% -0.9% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Minnesota Timberwolves
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 208.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 105.3 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 9 6 5 18 DvP 23 6 8 13 5
DRPM 1.03 -0.22 -2.40 2.92 -1.60 DRPM -0.21 0.36 1.95 1.60 2.30

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won three games in a row and seven of their last ten. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on a Wolves’ team that just put an end to the Rockets’ nine-game winning streak. This game is expected to be close and high scoring, which is always good for fantasy production. The Thunder have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the ninth highest in the slate. Russell Westbrook is the top overall play in the slate. While Ricky Rubio has actually held his own on defense this season, this is still a plus-matchup for the walking triple-double. Westbrook put up 61 fantasy points against the Wolves on Christmas and we should expect a similar outing tonight. Victor Oladipo had a tough matchup against the Grizzlies the last time out, but he should bounce back nicely against the Wolves and he should fly under the radar for the most part. Steven Adams could be asked to play big minutes tonight, as he will try to keep Karl-Anthony Towns under wraps. The only issue with Adams is his inflated salary. This game sets up well for Enes Kanter, as the Wolves don’t play a lot of small ball. Kanter is a viable option in all formats tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,800 $12,700 1.66 34.7 0.4 57.7 2.0 45.7% -7.9% 19 1.03
Victor Oladipo $5,700 $5,900 0.78 33.9 -4.3 26.3 -2.4 21.1% 0.0% 9 -0.22
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,000 0.57 31.1 3.0 17.7 2.2 10.6% -0.6% 6 -2.40
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,100 0.63 20.9 -3.6 13.2 -2.6 14.4% 2.1% 5 2.92
Steven Adams $6,000 $5,700 0.86 30.1 5.3 26.0 5.8 16.6% -0.2% 18 -1.60
Enes Kanter $5,900 $5,600 1.15 21.0 5.2 24.1 9.6 25.5% 0.4% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are coming off of their best win of the season, or at least their best win in recent memory. They are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Thunder. Minnesota is listed as a 2.5-point underdog with an implied total of 102.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. The big question here is whether or note Zach LaVine is going to play. He is shaping up to be a true game-time decision with a hip injury. If he is unable to suit up, Shabazz Muhammad and Brandon Rush would see the biggest boosts in playing time. Muhammad is the preferred option of the two, even though Rush had that monster game against the Rockets. Ricky Rubio would become an elite play if LaVine is ruled out. He has 32 assists in his last two games combined and would likely play 35+ minutes if Lavine is out. Andrew Wiggins draws a difficult matchup against Andre Roberson, but we know the minutes and the shot volume will be there. The Thunder play big more often than not, which should set up well for Gorgui Dieng. I’m always on the wrong side of him though, so I will be fading him tonight. Finally, we have Karl-Anthony Towns, who goes up against one of the best low post defenders in the NBA. At his elevated price point, this is a good spot to fade Towns given the matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,200 $6,100 0.80 31.6 1.6 25.3 12.9 17.7% 2.2% 23 -0.21
Brandon Rush $4,000 $3,600 0.52 12.7 6.1 6.6 8.4 11.0% -1.5% 6 0.36
Andrew Wiggins $6,800 $6,800 0.82 36.9 0.5 30.3 -5.4 27.6% -0.6% 8 1.95
Gorgui Dieng $5,300 $5,600 0.79 32.8 -2.5 25.8 -5.7 15.1% 0.4% 13 1.60
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,700 $9,400 1.17 35.7 2.9 41.9 7.4 27.2% -2.0% 5 2.30
Nemanja Bjelica $3,600 $3,400 0.72 16.8 3.6 12.1 -0.3 17.7% -5.0% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio (if LaVine is out)

Secondary Plays – Shabazz Muhammad, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nemanja Bjelica

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Milwaukee Bucks
miaminba Vegas Total 204.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 98.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- -1.5
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Wayne Ellington Rodney McGruder Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 3 13 29 15 7 DvP 7 5 10 11 18
DRPM 3.11 -0.40 -0.89 -1.62 1.40 DRPM -2.05 -2.04 -1.19 1.18 1.22

Miami Heat

The Heat will be short-handed tonight, as they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. Josh Richardson and Willie Reed have both been ruled out. This is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, as the Bucks are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. The one position that Milwaukee has really been dominant against is point guards, which makes Goran Dragic an easy fade in all formats. This also takes Tyler Johnson out of the equation for tournaments. Dion Waiters played 38 minutes and took 17 shots the other night against the Warriors. If he draws another start, he could certainly be worth a look in tournaments with Richardson out. James Johnson could see some extra run tonight. Not only has he been on a tear over the last two weeks, but Reed’s absence opens up 11-12 minutes in the frontcourt. Last but not least, we have Hassan Whiteside, who may be asked to play 35+ minutes against a below-average rebounding team in the Bucks. In his last three meetings against Milwaukee, Whiteside has scored 47, 43, and 49 fantasy points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,700 $6,700 0.94 34.2 -0.1 32.3 -4.7 29.3% -1.3% 3 3.11
Wayne Ellington $3,500 $3,100 0.61 27.1 -12.6 16.5 -11.3 17.4% 2.5% 13 -0.40
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,100 0.50 26.3 2.0 13.1 -2.9 11.8% -1.4% 29 -0.89
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.50 15.1 -2.0 7.6 -6.0 13.8% 1.3% 15 -1.62
Hassan Whiteside $8,600 $8,400 1.17 33.9 0.2 39.7 5.1 21.8% 0.9% 7 1.40
Tyler Johnson $6,000 $5,300 0.86 31.0 1.6 26.6 -0.2 21.7% -0.7% 3 N/A
James Johnson $5,800 $5,700 0.92 25.0 4.9 23.1 4.5 22.7% 1.2% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside

Secondary Plays – James Johnson, Dion Waiters (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and have moved all the way up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a mediocre matchup on paper, but the Heat have not been the same team defensively without Justise Winslow in the lineup. Milwaukee has an implied total of 105.8 points, which is slightly higher than their season average. If you are using any type of projections model that weighs recent performance, Giannis Antetokounmpo is not going to stand out as a strong play. He was only able to log nine minutes against the Spurs due to an illness. He was able to practice yesterday and should be close to 100% for tonight’s contest against the Heat. This is a great opportunity to target Giannis at a lower ownership than it would typically be in this matchup. Malcolm Brogdon minutes and fantasy production have not gone down since Matthew Dellavedova returned to the lineup, but his price is a bit high in this slate. We have to like the matchup for Jabari Parker going up against Luke Babbitt, but he probably won’t see a ton of minutes in that matchup. He will likely see more of James Johnson, who is a very capable defender. Greg Monroe has scored at least 28 fantasy points in six straight games and makes a great GPP play tonight against the short-handed frontcourt of the Heat.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,600 $10,100 1.36 34.7 -11.0 47.2 -21.9 29.7% 4.2% 7 -2.05
Malcolm Brogdon $5,300 $5,700 0.77 24.2 6.4 18.7 12.1 20.3% 2.8% 5 -2.04
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,400 0.52 29.4 5.1 15.2 1.1 12.3% -4.0% 10 -1.19
Jabari Parker $7,400 $7,300 0.96 34.1 3.6 32.9 8.5 25.3% 0.0% 11 1.18
John Henson $3,500 $3,200 0.86 20.1 -2.7 17.3 -4.1 16.0% -1.4% 18 1.22
Greg Monroe $6,300 $5,900 1.17 21.2 8.3 24.7 10.1 23.1% 0.6% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), Greg Monroe (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash), Greg Monroe (Cash), Jabari Parker, Malcolm Brogdon

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious