NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 19th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 17 | DvP | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2 | |
San Antonio Spurs
We made it! Happy Friday everyone. While we get to celebrate the work week being over, we don’t exactly have the best slate on tap tonight. There are only seven games on the schedule and barring any late injuries, it might be tough to build lineups. We start with the Spurs and Raptors in a battle between two good defensive teams. Toronto is ranked ninth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs come into the game with an implied total of 100 points, which is the third lowest on the board.
Tony Parker, Dejounte Murray, and Patty Mills are all fairly easy fades when healthy. They cut into each other’s playing time and it’s not like tonight’s matchup is in their favor. The Raptors are ranked third in efficiency against point guards. With Manu Ginobili, Rudy Gay, and Kawhi Leonard out, there are a lot of minutes available on the wing. Danny Green has played 27 and 28 minutes in his last two games, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in each. Green is volatile, but he does draw a nice matchup against DeMar DeRozan. At a price of $4,300 on FanDuel, I certainly have some interest in Green in tournaments.
Kyle Anderson was the chalk on Wednesday night and he burned a lot of bridges by only scoring seven fantasy points in 22 minutes of action. I never let one bad game impact my judgment, especially given how well Anderson was playing prior to Wednesday. Counting that game, he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in eight of his last 11 outings. I will certainly be going back to the well with Anderson tonight. Hopefully, at lower ownership. LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged 33 fantasy points playing next to Leonard and 41 fantasy points without him. I don’t love that he’s priced at a premium, but Aldridge is viable in all formats given the lack of depth at power forward.
Notable Injuries
Manu Ginobili (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Rudy Gary (Out)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 101.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (10 of 14)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker | $4,000 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 17.5 | -1.3 | 21.9 | 1.3 | 0.80 | 19.9% | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Danny Green | $4,300 | $4,700 | $10,200 | 20.9 | 2.4 | 26.5 | -1.8 | 0.79 | 14.5% | 26 | 12 | 25 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.7 | -2.4 | 27.2 | 0.0 | 0.87 | 13.2% | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $9,100 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 39.1 | 0.8 | 33.8 | 0.4 | 1.16 | 26.0% | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| Pau Gasol | $5,700 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 27.7 | -1.0 | 25.0 | 1.4 | 1.11 | 18.4% | 13 | 17 | 19 |
| Bryn Forbes | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 11.3 | 2.1 | 20.8 | 4.0 | 0.54 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Davis Bertans | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 0.79 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Anderson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Danny Green (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Danny Green (Cash), Pau Gasol (FD)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are one of the hottest teams in basketball. They have won seven of their last ten games and have quietly creeped up to second place in the Eastern Conference standings. While they are playing at home, they draw one of the worst possible matchups for fantasy production. The Spurs are ranked 28th in pace of play, first in points allowed per game, and second in defensive efficiency. The Raptors have the fourth highest implied total (105.5 points), but the worst projected point differential of the slate (-6.5).
The one position that the Spurs have some trouble defending is point guard. While Dejounte Murray is a good defender, Tony Parker and Patty Mills are clearly lacking in that particular area. Kyle Lowry’s price has dropped down to a playable level on both FanDuel ($7,700) and DraftKings ($7,900). Superstars are few and far between in this slate, which opens the door for a number of mid-range targets that we probably wouldn’t consider on a typical night.
DeMar DeRozan has struggled over his last five games and has to face a team that is ranked first in efficiency against shooting guards. Serge Ibaka has a similar problem, as the Spurs are ranked first in efficiency against power forwards as well. Jonas Valanciunas has played well over his last five games (26 fantasy points per contest), but he’s priced at a premium and isn’t guaranteed to play more than 20-22 minutes. Outside of Lowry, I will likely be fading the Raptors a whole tonight.
Notable Injuries
Fred VanVleet (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.0 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (4 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -6.5 (14 of 14)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,700 | $7,900 | $15,200 | 35.5 | -1.1 | 32.9 | 2.0 | 1.08 | 21.4% | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,400 | $8,300 | $15,000 | 39.5 | -4.6 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 12.3 | 1.1 | 21.6 | 1.7 | 0.57 | 10.4% | 9 | 5 | 1 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 26.3 | -9.4 | 27.9 | -5.0 | 0.94 | 17.5% | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 23.6 | 2.5 | 21.0 | 0.4 | 1.12 | 17.9% | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| Delon Wright | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 20.1 | 2.7 | 21.5 | 1.4 | 0.93 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 1.6 | 0.97 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash)
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Derrick Jones | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 29 | DvP | 4 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat have won eight of their last ten games and would host a first-round playoff series if the regular season ended today. They draw one of the best matchups of the slate, as the Nets are ranked fifth in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game. This is not only a nice matchup, but the low spread should help secure minutes for the starters from both teams. The Heat have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and four points above their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie has an excellent DRPM grade, but the Nets have struggled to defend point guards as a whole. On the season, they are ranked 27th in both efficiency and fantasy points allowed to the position. With Tyler Johnson out, Goran Dragic should see 35+ minutes in an exploitable matchup. He’s one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. Josh Richardson should see all of the minutes he can handle as well. He’s a strong cash game target on FanDuel ($6,000). Wayne Ellington and Justise Winslow are also viable in this matchup, although they are better lineup fillers than lineup starters.
James Johnson has drawn the start at power forward in each of the last two games, playing 28 minutes in both contests. His price is discounted, the matchup is near perfect, and power forward is the thinnest position of the slate. For all of those reasons, Johnson deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments. Hassan Whiteside is averaging 42 fantasy points over his last five games and should be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. Due to his inconsistency, I don’t consider him a cash game target, but he is certainly on my short list of potential tournament plays at center.
Notable Injuries
Tyler Johnson (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 101.2 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (3 of 14)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,500 | $7,500 | $13,300 | 30.5 | 5.3 | 32.1 | 2.7 | 0.95 | 25.3% | 27 | 27 | 4 |
| Derrick Jones | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 0.76 | 10.1% | 20 | 21 | 18 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 25.4 | 3.6 | 33.9 | 1.0 | 0.75 | 16.0% | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| James Johnson | $5,400 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 25.0 | -3.8 | 26.7 | -2.2 | 0.94 | 18.4% | 28 | 26 | 19 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $8,700 | $8,400 | $15,500 | 35.7 | 5.6 | 25.8 | 1.1 | 1.38 | 19.7% | 27 | 29 | 13 |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,400 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 17.3 | 5.5 | 25.1 | 7.0 | 0.69 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Justise Winslow | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.4 | -2.5 | 22.4 | -1.9 | 0.78 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Josh Richardson (FD), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), Hassan Whiteside (Cash), Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow
Brooklyn Nets
The wait for D’Angelo Russell to return to the lineup is finally over. After missing over two months thanks to a knee injury, he is expected to play tonight against the Heat. I fully expect him to face some minute restrictions in the next few games, so he’s not on my radar in DFS. As for the rest of the Nets, they draw a difficult matchup against the Heat, who are ranked fifth in points allowed per game this season. The Nets have an implied total of 102.8 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.
Before the Russell news was announced, I was ready to target Spencer Dinwiddie in all formats. I don’t expect Dinwiddie’s playing time to do down significantly over the next couple of games, but his usage will likely take a hit. The less we know about a rotation, the more likely I am to fade it completely. Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll have played well over their last five games, averaging 25 and 32 fantasy points, respectively. They are both viable tonight, but the matchup against the Heat brings them down to secondary plays.
Caris LeVert could be the player that gets hurt the most with Russell’s return to the lineup. He has basically been the go-to playmaker off the bench, but that could change moving forward. For now, I will be avoiding all three of the Nets’ point guards. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has an extremely wide range of potential outcomes, but is capable of playing 32-35 minutes in close games. With the spread set at 2.5 points, I like his chances to eclipse the 30-minute mark at a discounted price point. As is always the case with RHJ, he is significantly cheaper on DraftKings ($5,900) than he is on FanDuel ($6,500).
Notable Injuries
D’Angelo Russell (Probable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (12 of 14)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,000 | $6,400 | $12,300 | 29.0 | -0.8 | 28.2 | 2.6 | 1.03 | 22.9% | 1 | 4 | 23 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,700 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 21.6 | 3.2 | 29.1 | 2.4 | 0.74 | 16.5% | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,700 | $5,600 | $11,700 | 26.2 | 5.8 | 29.1 | 2.1 | 0.90 | 17.9% | 12 | 7 | 8 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $6,500 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 29.0 | -3.0 | 28.5 | -0.3 | 1.02 | 20.3% | 16 | 6 | 4 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 15.5 | -4.3 | 17.6 | -4.4 | 0.88 | 15.5% | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,300 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 25.0 | -1.9 | 26.9 | 0.1 | 0.93 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.2 | -0.1 | 24.9 | 0.1 | 0.69 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK)
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD), Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -3.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 1 | DvP | 8 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 12 | 16 | 28 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 23 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are going to be one of the most frustrating teams to target the rest of the season. They have already come out and said that they are going to start resting their veteran players in order to develop their young talent. For DFS purposes, we shouldn’t expect any of their veterans to play unless they are declared as active. To complicate matters, they draw an awful matchup against the Grizzlies on the road. Memphis is currently ranked dead last in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game.
Given the fact that we’ve already seen the Kings start to rest players, I am going to assume that Zach Randolph, Kosta Koufos, George Hill, and Vince Carter are all questionable for tonight’s game. If any of them are rested, it could open the door for the likes of De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Willie Cauley-Stein. However, given the matchup and the expected pace of the game, all four are secondary plays at best. Fox is the most appealing of the bunch, as he is averaging 32 minutes and 26 fantasy points over his last five games.
Notable Injuries
Zach Randolph (Potential Rest)
Kosta Koufos (Potential Rest)
George Hill (Potential Rest)
Vince Carter (Potential Rest)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 97.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 (7 of 14)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.0 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 20.8 | 5.0 | 26.7 | 5.3 | 0.78 | 21.1% | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| George Hill | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 20.4 | 7.4 | 27.3 | 1.6 | 0.75 | 16.4% | 16 | 16 | 12 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $6,200 | $5,600 | $12,400 | 20.8 | 8.0 | 26.6 | 5.0 | 0.78 | 17.7% | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 27.0 | -8.0 | 25.2 | -2.5 | 1.07 | 24.5% | 23 | 14 | 28 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $7,200 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 27.5 | 5.7 | 26.8 | 5.3 | 1.03 | 19.3% | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| Buddy Hield | $5,400 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 21.0 | 0.6 | 23.9 | 1.7 | 0.88 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kosta Koufos | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 16.7 | 3.5 | 18.5 | 2.4 | 0.90 | 13.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein (GPP)
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have been short-handed all season and that trend will continue tonight. James Ennis and Chandler Parsons have already been ruled out, Andrew Harrison is questionable, and Brandan Wright is doubtful. All of these injuries open up minutes and usage in the offense and it doesn’t hurt that they are facing a Kings’ team that is ranked dead last in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies’ implied total of 104.5 points doesn’t look like much on paper, but it is five points above their season average.
Tyreke Evans has a twice-removed revenge game tonight against one of his former teams. He has 35+ minute upside with all of the injuries to the Grizzlies, but we have to pay a premium for him. Given the lack of superstars available, I wouldn’t rule Evans out, but he’s best suited as a tournament play. If Harrison is listed as active before lineups lock, he would immediately become one of the top value plays on the board. He would push for 28-30 minutes in a nice matchup against the Kings. Mario Chalmers offers nice value on DraftKings ($3,700) even if Harrison is active. In the event that Harrison is ruled out, Chalmers would become an elite value play.
JaMychal Green is coming off of one of his best games of the season, scoring 41 fantasy points against the Knicks. He’s been playing well for three straight weeks. Even though his price has come up, he’s viable in all formats tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. Marc Gasol is expected to return to the lineup, after missing Wednesday’s game with an illness. He draws one of the best possible matchups for a center, as the Kings struggle to defend the position and are one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball.
Notable Injuries
James Ennis (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
Mike Conley (Out)
Brandan Wright (Doubtful)
Andrew Harrison (Questionable)
Marc Gasol (Probable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.3 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (2 of 14)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $8,800 | $8,800 | $16,900 | 35.5 | 4.1 | 31.1 | 2.0 | 1.14 | 27.4% | 14 | 8 | 29 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,700 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 21.1 | 6.1 | 0.75 | 17.9% | 19 | 18 | 24 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 15.0 | 0.8 | 27.3 | -0.4 | 0.55 | 12.5% | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,200 | $5,300 | $11,800 | 21.8 | 7.3 | 26.9 | 0.0 | 0.81 | 15.9% | 25 | 24 | 28 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,800 | $8,000 | $14,600 | 38.4 | 4.9 | 34.6 | -0.1 | 1.11 | 23.7% | 29 | 28 | 23 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 13.4 | 0.1 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 0.75 | 13.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Chalmers | $3,900 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 18.3 | -0.1 | 22.5 | 0.2 | 0.81 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – JaMychal Green, Tyreke Evans (GPP), Marc Gasol (DK), Andrew Harrison (if active)
Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (Cash), Marc Gasol (FD), Mario Chalmers (DK)
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.0 | Vegas Spread | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 9 | 27 | 12 | 14 | DvP | 16 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 17 | 26 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have been involved in a number of high scoring games recently, but that could change tonight against the Pistons. Not only does Detroit have a top eight defense in terms of points allowed and efficiency, but the Wizards have to face them on the road. Washington comes into the game as 1-point favorites with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is two points below their season average.
John Wall draws a favorable matchup against Ish Smith, but the Pistons as a whole have held point guards to the seventh fewest fantasy points per game. They also have an elite rim protector in Andre Drummond, which could help negate one of Wall’s biggest strengths. At this price, Wall is a fade for me in all formats. Bradley Beal is an easy fade as well. Shooting guard is surprisingly one of the deepest positions of the slate. Otto Porter has not played well recently, but has the best matchup of the five starters and is only $5,600 on DraftKings. Porter does not fit the mold of a cash game target, but he is viable in tournaments.
Markieff Morris has the potential to play 30 minutes at a bargain bin price of $4,300 on FanDuel. The problem is that his minutes are volatile. Not only does he foul too often, but he has a very capable backup in Mike Scott. Marcin Gortat is far and away my favorite play from the Wizards tonight. I always prefer to target him when he is facing a traditional center like Andre Drummond. In their last five meetings, Gortat has averaged over 30 minutes and over 30 fantasy points per game.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (11 of 14)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $10,300 | $9,700 | $16,900 | 41.9 | 8.9 | 34.1 | 2.7 | 1.23 | 29.0% | 20 | 7 | 16 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,800 | $7,700 | $14,900 | 37.2 | -1.1 | 35.8 | 1.8 | 1.04 | 26.3% | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| Otto Porter | $6,200 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 29.5 | -6.5 | 31.6 | 1.9 | 0.93 | 16.3% | 22 | 27 | 17 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,300 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 19.9 | -3.6 | 24.9 | 0.7 | 0.80 | 15.7% | 13 | 12 | 26 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,000 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 24.7 | 0.0 | 27.2 | -1.3 | 0.91 | 13.6% | 15 | 14 | 3 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 21.8 | -0.4 | 27.2 | 1.6 | 0.80 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 15.2 | -1.9 | 18.8 | -1.6 | 0.81 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – Otto Porter (GPP), Markieff Morris (FD)
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have lost seven of their last ten games and would be at home watching the playoffs on television if the regular season ended today. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked between 11th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Detroit has an implied total of 103.8 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.
Ish Smith has played well in Reggie Jackson’s absence, but he isn’t seeing the type of minutes that we were expecting when Jackson first went down with his injury. Rather than playing 32-34 minutes a night, Smith is playing 28-30 minutes a night. He offers a high floor, but he has yet to show upside on a consistent basis. Three of the Pistons’ wing players are listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If one or two miss, give a boost to the others. If all three are ruled out, Langston Galloway could be a sneaky value play off the bench. Reggie Bullock would also be asked to play a ton of minutes in that scenario.
Tobias Harris isn’t a player that I roster often in DFS. It’s not that I have anything against him, I just tend to look elsewhere at power forward. That will likely be the case again tonight, although I would make an exception in tournaments if the Pistons were going to be short-handed. Andre Drummond will garner some ownership in a slate that features very few superstars. Drummond is averaging 51 fantasy points over his last five games, but we have to pay a premium for him in a fairly difficult matchup against Marcin Gortat. A Drummond fade is always scary, but I’d rather play Nikola Jokic or Marc Gasol at discounted price points.
Notable Injuries
Stanley Johnson (Questionable)
Avery Bradley (Questionable)
Luke Kennard (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (5 of 14)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,400 | $5,700 | $12,000 | 20.8 | 7.6 | 22.3 | 7.8 | 0.93 | 23.9% | 13 | 16 | 13 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,400 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 23.8 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 2.2 | 0.75 | 21.5% | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| Reggie Bullock | $3,700 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 14.3 | 4.5 | 23.5 | 7.3 | 0.61 | 11.5% | 16 | 24 | 1 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 29.2 | 2.2 | 32.5 | -2.2 | 0.90 | 21.3% | 20 | 4 | 18 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,200 | $9,900 | $18,200 | 43.8 | 6.9 | 32.9 | 1.9 | 1.33 | 18.6% | 12 | 20 | 9 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,700 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 20.1 | 3.0 | 0.65 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Langston Galloway | $4,200 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 14.9 | -0.4 | 0.77 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 114.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Dragan Bender | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Mason Plumlee | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 13 | DvP | 29 | 30 | 18 | 30 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 25 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 7 | |
Phoenix Suns
If you like stacking games in tournaments, this one should stick out like a sore thumb. The Suns and Nuggets both like to push the pace and neither team is particularly efficient on the defensive end of the floor. While the nine point spread brings a potential blowout into play, the total of 219.5 points more than makes up for it. This is a game where the upside outweighs the risk of a blowout. The Suns have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the board.
Tyler Ulis has scored at least 21 fantasy points in four of his last five games and draws an exploitable matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 28th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Ulis isn’t the most productive player on a per-minute basis, but we shouldn’t automatically rule him out in this matchup. Devin Booker will draw the defense of Gary Harris, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball. This doesn’t mean that Booker can’t play well, but I’m lowering my expectations.
T.J. Warren missed the last game with lower back soreness, but should be ready to roll tonight against the Nuggets. He has a better matchup than Booker, he’s considerably cheaper, and he is listed as a small forward, which is a thinner position in this slate. Dragan Bender will draw another start for Marquese Chriss. Bender has played at least 30 minutes in four straight games and has topped 32 fantasy points twice during that stretch. Tyson Chandler could see a few extra minutes tonight, as he’s the Suns best chance of slowing down Nikola Jokic. Chandler offers nice value at center, although I’d rather find the extra cap space to pay up for Marcin Gortat.
Notable Injuries
Marquese Chriss (Out)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (9 of 14)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 17.5 | 5.2 | 24.0 | 5.4 | 0.73 | 17.5% | 28 | 28 | 25 |
| Devin Booker | $8,500 | $8,500 | $15,500 | 37.5 | 2.9 | 34.4 | 0.9 | 1.09 | 28.2% | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| T.J. Warren | $6,700 | $6,400 | $13,200 | 31.4 | -1.4 | 32.2 | 1.8 | 0.98 | 23.3% | 6 | 11 | 18 |
| Dragan Bender | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 22.2 | 9.4 | 0.58 | 11.2% | 18 | 23 | 17 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.7 | -0.8 | 25.7 | -0.1 | 0.84 | 9.1% | 19 | 13 | 6 |
| Isaiah Canaan | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 20.0 | -2.1 | 21.5 | 0.4 | 0.93 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Troy Daniels | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 18.8 | 7.5 | 0.57 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Josh Jackson | $4,800 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 17.9 | 9.7 | 22.1 | 4.3 | 0.81 | 20.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. Warren
Secondary Plays – Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker (FD), Dragan Bender, Tyson Chandler
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and have dropped to ninth place in the Western Conference standings. They should be able to bounce back tonight against the Suns, who frankly aren’t that talented of a basketball team. This is a great matchup for fantasy production, as Phoenix is ranked fourth in pace of play and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets have the highest implied total (114.3 points) and the highest projected point differential (+8.2) of the slate.
Jamal Murray was originally listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but has been upgraded to probable. Judging by the beat writers, it sounds like he’s closer to probable. This isn’t exactly what we wanted to hear, but we can still play Will Barton and Gary Harris with confidence. Harris is an elite play regardless and if we don’t know Murray’s status before lineups lock, I would still consider Barton to be an elite tournament play. If Murray is announced as active prior to lineup lock, he makes an amazing tournament play at low ownership.
Wilson Chandler is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings at a price of $4,300. Anytime we can project someone to play 30+ minutes against the Suns at that price point, I’ll have interest. Mason Plumlee gets to square off against a Suns’ defense that is ranked dead last in efficiency and DvP against power forwards this season. He and Trey Lyles are both intriguing tournament plays at what should be low ownership. Tyson Chandler is a solid defender, but Nikola Jokic is matchup-proof. He’s so good offensively and he fill up all areas of the stat sheet. If you are paying up at center tonight, Jokic is my favorite play.
Notable Injuries
Jamal Murray (Questionable)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 8.2 (1 of 14)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.4 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 25.1 | -8.5 | 29.6 | 1.9 | 0.85 | 21.7% | 30 | 29 | 28 |
| Gary Harris | $7,100 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 30.2 | 8.6 | 34.8 | 0.4 | 0.87 | 18.5% | 18 | 30 | 28 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,000 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 20.5 | -1.3 | 31.1 | -1.7 | 0.66 | 13.6% | 20 | 18 | 28 |
| Mason Plumlee | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 21.2 | 1.8 | 20.5 | 2.1 | 1.03 | 15.0% | 30 | 30 | 29 |
| Nikola Jokic | $10,000 | $9,500 | $17,600 | 39.6 | 5.3 | 30.9 | 0.6 | 1.28 | 22.3% | 15 | 12 | 7 |
| Trey Lyles | $5,400 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 19.8 | -1.0 | 20.1 | 3.4 | 0.99 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Will Barton | $7,700 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 29.5 | 0.4 | 31.2 | 3.8 | 0.95 | 20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |