NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 1st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -2.5, 205 Over/Under
- Orlando Magic Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Porter-Dudley-Gortat
| Orlando Magic | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 205.0 | | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.00 | Team Pace | 100.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Otto Porter | Jared Dudley | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 11 | Opp. Season | 11 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 6 | |
Orlando Magic
Record: 19-13 — Road: 7-7 — Last 10: 7-3
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3
The Magic have won seven of their last ten games to improve to 19-13 on the season. Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards in what should be a close, fast-paced game. The Magic have an implied team total of 101.3 points, which is slightly higher than their average points per game this season.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.7 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.8 (20 of 30)
The Wizards have played better defense recently, but they are still ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories above. Elfrid Payton only played five minutes the other night against the Nets. He is dealing with an ankle injury and an illness. It sounds like he is going to play tonight, but he should be avoided in DFS. The injury risk is too great.
- Injury Watch:
Elfrid Payton (Probable)
C.J. Watson (Out)
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic
Vucevic has been a machine recently, averaging 40.6 fantasy points over his last five games. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in each of his last seven games, topping the 40 fantasy point mark five times during that stretch. Even though Marcin Gortat is a very capable defender, Vucevic is still one of the top plays of the night.
FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.0 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 40.6
Evan Fournier
I’ve been on the Fournier bandwagon for a while now. He is back to producing at the level that he was earlier in the season and people are just barely starting to realize it. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29.2 fantasy points in 35.3 minutes per contest. He draws a terrific matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked 27th against shooting guards this season.
FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 29.2
Secondary Plays
Tobias Harris
Harris is one of those players that is tough to peg. However, in a fast-paced game against the Wizards, this is a good spot for him. He is at his best in transition and Washington has given up the second most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
FD — $6,400 — SF
DK — $6,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 13.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 28.6
Washington Wizards
Record: 14-16 — Home: 7-8 — Last 10: 5-5
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.5 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.8 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3
The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, as they try to climb their way back to .500 on the season. Washington is listed as 2.5-point favorites tonight against the Magic at home. The Wizards have an implied team total of 103.8 points, which is the second highest on the board tonight.
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.8 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.4 (13 of 30)
The Magic have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked sixth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. Despite the tough matchup on paper, the Wizards’ team total is 2.3 points higher than their average points per game this season. Washington is expected to be without Bradley Beal, Nene Hilario, Gary Neal, and Drew Gooden tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Brad Beal (Out)
Nene Hilario (Out)
Gary Neal (Out)
Drew Gooden (Out)
Elite Plays
Marcin Gortat
Gortat has been playing at an extremely high level recently, averaging 37.5 fantasy points in his last five games. The Wizards’ frontcourt is still thin, which solidifies his minutes for tonight. The Magic have been tough on centers this season, but Gortat gives you such a high floor that he is worth a look in all league formats.
FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 37.5
Secondary Plays
John Wall
I really want to target Wall tonight. I mean I REALLY want to. He is just so expensive that it is hard to justify listing him as an elite play. There are quite a few point guard options tonight – namely Ish Smith, which makes Wall more of a secondary play. Everything lines up for a nicely for him though, as he faces a hobbled Elfrid Payton at home.
FD — $10,200 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 40.9 | Last Five Games: 46.7
Otto Porter
Porter has played well in his last two games, averaging 34 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. He is a player that fills up all areas of the stat sheet and we have seen the type of upside that he provides when Bradley Beal is off the floor.
FD — $6,000 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 27.6
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -3.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Mavericks Proj. Starters – Barea-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
| Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 194.5 | | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.00 | Team Pace | 94.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jose Juan Barea | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 9 | Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 15 | |
Dallas Mavericks
Record: 19-13 — Road: 9-8 — Last 10: 6-4
- Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.3 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.5 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -6.8
The Mavericks have won six of their last ten games and are coming off of an impressive win against the Warriors. Tonight they head to Miami to take on the Heat, who are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. Dallas is only projected to score 95.5 points, which is 6.8 points lower than their average points per game this season.
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.5 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.7 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.0 (4 of 30)
The Heat play at a slow tempo and they also have an elite defense. That is usually a bad combination for the fantasy production of their opponents. On the season, Miami is ranked third in points allowed per game and fourth in fantasy points allowed per game. Deron Williams is questionable for tonight’s game. He has missed the last four with a hamstring injury.
- Injury Watch:
Deron Williams (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons
Parsons is a little too expensive to target on DraftKings, but he is affordable on FanDuel. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per contest. Parsons draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Heat are ranked 20th against small forwards.
FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 14.0
Min/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.7 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Jose Juan Barea
This pick hinges on the health of Deron Williams. If Williams is unable to suit up, Barea would draw another start at point guard. He has had three terrific outings and one dud in his last four starts. He may be a little too expensive on DraftKings, but would be a borderline elite play on FanDuel if he draws another start.
FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $5,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 30.2
Miami Heat
Record: 18-13 — Home: 13-7 — Last 10: 6-4
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.0 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0
The Heat have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive home record of 13-7 on the season. They are listed as 3.5-point favorites tonight in what should be a slow paced game against the Mavericks. The Heat may only be projected to score 99 points, but that is actually two points higher than their average points per game.
- Dallas Mavericks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.1 (14 of 30)
The Mavericks have been mediocre defensively. They are ranked between 14th and 19th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This isn’t a great matchup by any means, but it isn’t one that we need to avoid either. Dwyane Wade is a little too expensive for my liking tonight. Plus, the Mavericks have been very good against shooting guards this season (5th in DvP).
- Injury Watch:
Justise Winslow (Questionable)
Josh McRoberts (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside
The biggest question mark with Whiteside is his minutes. Luckily, his minutes have been way up recently. He has averaged 33.4 minutes per game in his last five, averaging 32.3 fantasy points during that stretch. I prefer Nikola Vucevic and/or Marcin Gortat in cash games, but Whiteside makes a nice tournament play against the Mavericks.
FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 11.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 32.3
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -6.5, 197 Over/Under
- Charlotte Hornets Proj. Starters – Walker-Batum-Hairston-Williams-Zeller
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Scola-Valanciunas
| Charlotte Hornets | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 197.0 | | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.40 | Team Pace | 96.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | P.J. Hairston | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Season | 7 | 22 | 7 | 27 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 6 | 18 | 11 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 22 | 16 | |
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 17-14 — Road: 4-8 — Last 10: 4-6
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.3 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -7.3
The Hornets have lost six of their last ten games and they just got some terrible news. Al Jefferson had to undergo knee surgery, which will hold him out until February at the earliest. The Hornets travel North of the border tonight to take on the Raptors. Charlotte is only projected to score 95.3 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.0 (5 of 30)
The Raptors have quietly had one of the best defenses in the NBA this season. They are ranked eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The tough matchup helps explain why the Hornets’ team total is so low. Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for tonight’s game. Kemba Walker is a little too expensive to target tonight. He is typically a better play at home and he draws a tough matchup against Kyle Lowry.
- Injury Watch:
Al Jefferson (Out)
Nicolas Batum (Questionable)
Jeremy Lin (Questionable)
Spencer Hawes (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Cody Zeller
Al Jefferson injury is bad for the Hornets, but it is good for the fantasy production of Zeller. He has been playing some great basketball recently, averaging 25.4 fantasy points in 29.9 minutes in his last five games. His matchup against the Raptors isn’t ideal, but he is a solid punt option at power forward.
FD — $4,700 — PF
DK — $4,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.3 | Last Five Games: 11.7
Min/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Frank Kaminsky
Kaminsky also sees a nice boost with Al Jefferson out. He has been a nice spark plug off the bench. Over his last five games, he is averaging 22.7 fantasy points. The minutes aren’t as consistent as Cody Zeller, but Kaminsky could be worth a look in tournaments.
FD — $4,100 — PF
DK — $4,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 25.7
FP/Game — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 22.7
Toronto Raptors
Record: 20-13 — Home: 10-5 — Last 10: 6-4
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.8 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0
The Raptors have won six of their last ten games and are now 20-13 overall. They will look to add another win to their resume tonight, as they host the visiting Hornets. The Raptors have an implied team total of 101.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the schedule tonight.
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.5 (19 of 30)
The Hornets have been a mediocre defensive team this season. They are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 19th in fantasy points allowed per game. Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo had both been playing well recently, but both should be avoided now that Jonas Valanciunas is back in the lineup.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan’s price has shot up across the industry. While I generally don’t like to buy high on players, he is the premier play at shooting guard. Over his last five games, he is averaging 40.5 fantasy points. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked 22nd against shooting guards this season.
FD — $8,400 — SG
DK — $8,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 27.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.6 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 40.5
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry
Lowry is a borderline elite play on DraftKings. His matchup against Kemba Walker isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. Lowry is a multi-dimensional point guard that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $8,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 38.4 | Last Five Games: 33.7
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Chicago -6.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- New York Knicks Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
- Chicago Bulls Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Mirotic-Gibson-Gasol
| New York Knicks | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 198.5 | | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.60 | Team Pace | 99.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | Proj. Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Nikola Mirotic | Taj Gibson | Pau Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 7 | 21 | 12 | 24 | Opp. Season | 13 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 14 | 26 | 6 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 1 | 21 | 19 | 22 | |
New York Knicks
Record: 15-18 — Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 5-5
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.0 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0
The Knicks have won five of their last ten games and are now only three games below .500. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Bulls in Chicago. The Knicks are only projected to score 96 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.
- Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.0 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.2 (23 of 30)
The Bulls play at a quick pace, but they are still a tough matchup when it comes to fantasy production. Chicago is ranked 13th in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The two usual suspects are in play from the Knicks tonight, but neither stands out as an elite play. This could be a nice spot to fade the Knicks as a whole.
- Injury Watch:
Louis Amundson (Questionable)
Cleanthony Early (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony
Anthony has played well recently, averaging 37.7 fantasy points per game. The Knicks draw a tough matchup against the Bulls, but if they are going to keep the game close, it will likely be thanks to a big game from Melo. He actually draws a nice individual matchup against Nikola Mirotic.
FD — $8,600 — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 26.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 37.7
Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis (as usual) is too expensive on DraftKings, but he is playable on FanDuel. His minutes are as tough to predict as they are for any other player in the NBA, but we all know the type of upside that he brings to the table. He may see a few extra minutes tonight against the large frontcourt of the Bulls.
FD — $6,200 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 26.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 28.4
Chicago Bulls
Record: 18-12 — Home: 13-5 — Last 10: 6-4
- Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.1 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.4
The Bulls have won six of their last ten games and are now 18-12 on the season. They are 13-5 at home and draw a fairly easy matchup tonight against the Knicks. Chicago is listed as 6.5-point favorites with their team total set at 102.5 points.
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.6 (8 of 30)
The Knicks are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game, but they haven’t been nearly as efficient defensively as they were earlier in the season. Derrick Rose missed Wednesday night’s game and is currently listed as questionable tonight. If he is unable to play, give a small boost to Jimmy Butler, Aaron Brooks, and Kirk Hinrich.
- Injury Watch:
Derrick Rose (Questionable)
Joakim Noah (Out)
Mike Dunleavy (Out)
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol
Gasol is a bit too expensive on FanDuel and a bit too cheap on DraftKings. A price in the low $8,000 range seems like a fair salary. Due to the gap in price, he is a secondary play on FD and an elite play on DK. It looks like another good night to target two centers on DK. Gasol should have no problem stuffing the stat sheet against Robin Lopez and the Knicks.
FD — $8,700 — PF
DK — $7,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 38.8
Taj Gibson
Minutes are like gold in the NBA and we should treat them as such. Over his last five games, Gibson is averaging 35 minutes per game. With Joakim Noah still out, Gibson will continue to log heavy minutes each night. He is a safe play in all league formats, especially on FanDuel.
FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.0 | Last Five Games: 10.2
Min/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 27.4
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler
Once again, we have another big price gap for a Bulls’ player. Butler is considerably cheaper on DraftKings. He is a borderline elite play on DK if Derrick Rose plays and we can bump him up to an elite play if Rose sits. In three games without Rose this season, Butler has had a usage rate of 26.9.
FD — $8,300 — SG
DK — $7,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 37.9 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 35.5
Bobby Portis
Portis isn’t seeing enough minutes on a nightly basis to be considered in cash games, but he is certainly worth a look in tournaments. In his last six games, he has fantasy point outings of 35, 25, and 23.
FD — $3,900 — PF
DK — $3,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 14.7 | Last Five Games: 19.4
FP/Game — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 16.9
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -3.5, 206 Over/Under
- Philadelphia 76ers Proj. Starters – Smith-Canaan-Grant-Noel-Okafor
- Los Angeles Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Williams-Bryant-Nance Jr
| Philadelphia 76ers | Los Angeles Lakers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 206.0 | | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.00 | Team Pace | 98.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Ishmael Smith | Isaiah Canaan | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | Proj. Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Louis Williams | Kobe Bryant | “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 26 | Opp. Season | 18 | 13 | 30 | 29 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 11 | 23 | 14 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 27 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 3-31 — Road: 2-19 — Last 10: 2-8
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 92.5 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 8.8
DFS is a wonderful, wonderful thing. It turns what would be the worst game on the schedule into the best game on the schedule. Absolutely no one would care about this game if we didn’t have daily fantasy. Funny how that works, because this game is loaded with fantasy options. The Sixers are projected to score 101.3 points tonight against the Lakers, which is 8.8 points higher than their average points per game.
- Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 214.9 (30 of 30)
The Lakers have worked hard to be able to call themselves the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are ranked 29th or 30th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. After the Sixers beat the Kings the other night, it will be interesting to see if they roll out the same starting lineup. In that game, Jahlil Okafor came off the bench. If that’s the case again tonight, it would give a sizable boost to Nerlens Noel and Jerami Grant.
- Injury Watch:
Hollis Thompson (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Ishmael Smith
ISH!
ISH!
ISH!
When the Sixers traded for Smith, I was ecstatic. He is one of my favorite players to target in daily fantasy and I knew that he would immediately step in as the only true point guard on the roster. He has been terrific in his first three starts with the team, scoring 24, 40, and 42 fantasy points. Even though his price has come up, he is still my favorite play on the board tonight.
FD — $5,800 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 25.4
Min/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 27.5
Nerlens Noel
Noel has three things going for him right now that he didn’t have earlier in the season – he’s healthy, he has a true point guard, and he and Jahlil Okafor haven’t been on the floor together that often. All three have led to a nice stretch of games for Noel. He should have a monster fantasy outing tonight against the Lakers, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA.
FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 13.5
Min/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 30.9
Secondary Plays
Jerami Grant
This pick hinges on whether Grant is in the starting lineup or whether he comes off the bench. Assuming he starts, he makes a nice value play at SF/PF. He is not the most talented offensive player, but he should be able to rack up some blocks and steals in an uptempo game against the Lakers.
FD — $4,500 — PF
DK — $4,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 10.1
Min/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 22.6
FP/Game — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 6-27 — Home: 2-9 — Last 10: 3-7
- Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.8 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.8 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 8.0
The Lakers have lost seven of their last ten games and are now only 6-27 on the season. They have a chance at some revenge tonight though, as the Sixers beat them back in Philadelphia. The Lakers are 3.5-point favorites with their team total set at 104.8 points. We may want to take a picture, because this is the first (and likely last) time the Lakers have had the highest team total on the board.
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.5 (27 of 30)
The Sixers aren’t quite as bad as the Lakers defensively, but they aren’t too far behind. On the season, they are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Lakers team total is eight points higher than their average points per game, which gives the entire team a sizable boost.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
Jordan Clarkson
The Lakers have been a tough team to peg this season, at least from a fantasy perspective. They have four guards that all split minutes and production. I’ll give the edge to Clarkson, as he averages more minutes than Lou Williams, Kobe Bryant, and D’Angelo Russell.
FD — $5,900 — PG
DK — $5,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Louis Williams
Williams has struggled in his last five games, but the minutes are still there. He should be able to snap out of his funk tonight against the Sixers, who as mentioned above, are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
FD — $5,300 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 14.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.1 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant
Bryant’s minutes and production have both been down over his last five games. While he is a little too risky to use in cash games, he is an intriguing tournament play. He has that 40 fantasy point upside and the matchup is obviously a favorable one.
FD — $6,900 — SG
DK — $6,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 28.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 24.4
Julius Randle
There have been whispers that Randle may make his way back into the starting lineup soon. If that happens tonight, he would become an elite play in all league formats. Even if he comes off the bench, he is a decent mid-range option at power forward.
FD — $5,700 — PF
DK — $5,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 24.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 26.3
