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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 4th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-04 23:08:35

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Milwaukee Bucks
minnesotanba Vegas Total 213.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 97.20 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee
Opp. Season 7 26 25 20 15 Opp. Season 21 22 18 9 7
Last 3 Weeks 11 26 19 8 13 Last 3 Weeks 17 29 29 9 4

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 19-42 — Road: 9-21 — Last 10: 4-6

The Wolves have been playing better basketball recently. While they have still only won four of their last ten games, they have given some teams a run for their money. Tonight’s game against the Bucks should be filled with fantasy goodness. The Wolves are projected to score 103.8 points, which is 2.8 points above their scoring average.

The Bucks have been a good team to target players against this season. They are ranked 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Once again, the Wolves will be without Kevin Garnett, Nemanja Bjelica, and Nikola Pekovic. Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng will continue to play all of the minutes that they can handle.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.14 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.8 35.7 4.9 34.9 4.1
FPPG (FD) 35.0 42.7 7.7 40.2 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 22.0 1.9 21.2 1.2

Towns is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 42.7 fantasy points in 35.7 minutes per contest. He is going to be one of the top players in the NBA for many years to come. I have him ranked slightly ahead of Hassan Whiteside tonight, because we can feel a little more secure about his playing time.

Zach LaVine
zach-lavine-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.5 34.1 8.6 36.1 10.6
FPPG (FD) 21.6 25.1 3.6 26.4 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 21.5 18.1 -3.3 17.2 -4.3

LaVine is basically playing as much as anyone on the Wolves, averaging 36 minutes per game over his last five. It appears that the Prince/LaVine lineup swap is no longer a thing, so LaVine should be in the starting lineup for the rest of the season. While his usage rate is down, that’s just because he is playing with the first unit. His increase in minutes more than makes up for the decline in usage.

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins
andrew-wiggins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 34.2 -0.8 34.2 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 28.6 27.4 -1.1 25.5 -3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 23.3 23.0 -0.3 22.2 -1.1

Wiggins is finally to the point where he is so cheap that I feel like I need to at least consider him in tournaments. He averages close to 35 minutes per game and he has an elite usage rate. He just hasn’t had those peripheral statistics this season. While I won’t be using him in cash games, he draws an excellent matchup against the Bucks, who have struggled to defend wings this season.

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 25-36 — Home: 17-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks have won five of their last ten games. They are a completely different team than the one we saw earlier in the season. Over their last ten games, they have played at an above-average pace. They are now winning by pushing the tempo and outscoring opponents in transition. The Bucks are projected to score 109.3 points tonight. They have the third highest team total on the board and the second highest projected point differential.

The Wolves have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 24th in points allowed per game and 28th in defensive efficiency. Michael Carter-Williams is not expected to play tonight. The obvious boost goes to Jerryd Bayless, but it also means a few extra minutes for both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Elite Plays

Khris Middleton
khris-middleton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.7 40.4 3.7 39.9 3.2
FPPG (FD) 30.4 37.5 7.1 39.5 9.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 20.9 1.2 20.9 1.2

Middleton has been terrific over his last ten games, averaging 37.5 fantasy points in 40.4 minutes per contest. In addition to a minutes boost, he has also seen a spike in his usage rate. With his price at where it is, he is an elite play on DraftKings and more of a secondary play on FanDuel.

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$7,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 37.7 2.6 38.8 3.7
FPPG (FD) 32.1 40.3 8.2 47.2 15.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 19.5 1.7 20.1 2.3

Giannis has really stepped up recently, averaging 47.2 fantasy points over his last five games. He has seen an increase in his role offensively and he is actually playing back-up point guard with Michael Carter-Williams out. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Wolves in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

Secondary Plays

Jabari Parker
jabari-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 37.8 7.6 36.9 6.7
FPPG (FD) 22.0 29.8 7.8 31.5 9.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 18.6 2.0 20.6 3.9

Parker is a borderline elite play tonight on FanDuel. The Bucks are really trying to develop their young talent and it has shown in their recent minute distribution. Over his last ten games, Parker is averaging 29.8 fantasy points in 37.8 minutes per contest. He is a low-risk, medium reward play tonight at power forward.

Jerryd Bayless
jerryd-bayless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$4,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.3 29.1 0.8 33.6 5.3
FPPG (FD) 19.8 22.0 2.2 25.4 5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 15.2 0.1 15.1 0.1

With Michael Carter-Williams out, Bayless has played at least 32 minutes in three of his last four games. Jason Kidd loves to give Bayless extended minutes and 30 minutes seems like a safe projection tonight. He is a viable value option and I wouldn’t mind using him in cash games if you don’t mind giving up one of your point guard spots.

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Utah Jazz Memphis Grizzlies
utahnba Vegas Total 192.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 97.0
Team Pace 93.40 Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Mike Conley P.J. Hairston Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Chris Andersen
Opp. Season 8 4 13 11 2 Opp. Season 9 3 2 1 3
Last 3 Weeks 3 15 2 4 11 Last 3 Weeks 14 24 5 7 14

Utah Jazz

Record: 28-32 — Road: 9-20 — Last 10: 3-7

If I had to rank the ten games in terms of fantasy appeal, this one would be at the very bottom of the list. The Jazz and Grizzlies are two slow-paced teams that both pride themselves in their play on the defensive end of the floor. The Jazz are only projected to score 95.5 points, which is easily the lowest team total on the board.

Everyone likes to say that the Grizzlies are a completely different defense without Marc Gasol, but they have actually played very well in his absence. They are ranked sixth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. If this was a small slate, it may be a different story, but there is no reason to force any Jazz players into your lineup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 36-24 — Home: 22-9 — Last 10: 6-4

The Grizzlies have won six of their last ten games and are now 36-24 overall. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Jazz at home. The Grizzlies are only projected to score 97 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. Memphis also has the fourth lowest projected point differential at -2.2.

The Jazz have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. To make matters worse, they also play at the slowest pace. That combination has led Utah to being ranked inside the top ten in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. While Mike Conley has been playing well, this is an easy game to avoid altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Washington Wizards Cleveland Cavaliers
washingtonnba Vegas Total 208.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 100.30 Team Pace 95.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Tristan Thompson Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 19 6 7 2 1 Opp. Season 15 24 26 7 13
Last 3 Weeks 25 3 20 1 8 Last 3 Weeks 13 11 7 2 19

Washington Wizards

Record: 30-30 — Road: 14-14 — Last 10: 7-3

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and are now back in the mix in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. While they did beat the Cavs last weekend, LeBron James did not play in that game. The Wizards are sizable underdogs tonight on the road. They are only projected to score 100 points, which is three points lower than their scoring average.

I generally try to avoid taking players against the Cavaliers whenever possible. On the season, they are ranked eighth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Wizards have the second lowest projected point differential on the board tonight and I will be using them sparingly in my lineups.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.18 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.5 -0.4 35.9 0.0
FPPG (FD) 42.3 42.6 0.3 45.1 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.8 24.9 0.1 25.8 0.9

In three meetings against Cleveland this season, Wall is averaging just under 50 fantasy points per game. While I think he is an easy fade for cash games, we have seen what top notch point guards can do against the Cavs this season. Wall’s ownership should be down, making him an interesting play in large field tournaments.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 42-17 — Home: 25-5 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and are now 42-17 overall. They are listed as 8.5-point favorites tonight against the Wizards at home. The Cavaliers are projected to score 108.5 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board. Cleveland also has the fifth highest projected point differential.

The Wizards have been playing better defense over the last few weeks, but are still ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers are going to rest Kevin Love tonight, which means Tristan Thompson should enter the starting lineup. It also means a usage boost for both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.32
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.7 -0.2 36.3 0.4
FPPG (FD) 44.2 45.1 0.9 39.6 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 27.2 -0.3 25.4 -2.1

LeBron has a lot going for him tonight. First, and most importantly, is the fact that Kevin Love is not going to play. James and Kyrie Irving will both shoulder the load offensively in this favorable matchup against the Wizards. James is also cheap at the moment, as he is priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. And finally, the icing on the cake is that the Wizards are ranked 26th against small forwards.

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.8 31.7 1.9 33.7 3.9
FPPG (FD) 29.1 33.9 4.8 32.2 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.9 0.8 25.0 -1.0

Irving has been playing better recently, averaging 32.2 fantasy points over his last five games. The problem in Cleveland is that there are only so many shots to go around. However, with Kevin Love out, Irving should see a nice boost in usage. I still prefer to use him in tournaments, but I wouldn’t talk you off of him if you are considering him in cash games.

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.72
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.9 1.2 30.9 0.2
FPPG (FD) 20.3 19.6 -0.8 18.3 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 15.4 -1.0 13.3 -3.1

Smith should also see a boost in usage with Kevin Love out tonight. The Wizards have struggled to contain wing players and Smith will certainly get his shots up. At his discounted price point, he is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Tristan Thompson
tristan-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$5,100
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 28.1 0.0 25.2 -2.9
FPPG (FD) 21.3 23.1 1.8 17.0 -4.3
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 9.4 -0.5 9.5 -0.4

With Kevin Love out, Thompson should draw the start and see 30+ minutes tonight against the Wizards. Thompson has been inconsistent this season, but he has a good chance of posting a double-double tonight.

Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Denver Nuggets
brooklynnba Vegas Total 208.0 denvernba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 106.5
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 23 27 15 24 19 Opp. Season 26 20 21 18 23
Last 3 Weeks 16 9 22 19 22 Last 3 Weeks 18 23 8 10 10

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 17-44 — Road: 6-22 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nets have lost six of their last ten games and are now 17-44 overall. Tonight they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in what should be a high-scoring game between two bad teams. The Nets are projected to score 101.5 points, which is 4.5 points above their scoring average.

The Nuggets have been a good team to target this season, as they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets aren’t projected to score more than 100 points very often, so give their offense a small boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,100 Salary:$6,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 35.6 2.6 35.9 2.9
FPPG (FD) 30.8 34.1 3.3 35.4 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 17.1 -1.0 16.5 -1.6

Targeting bigs against the Nuggets is never a bad strategy in DFS. On the season, they are ranked 24th against power forwards. Young has played well over his last ten games, averaging 34.1 fantasy points per contest. He should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight, making him a very safe play in both cash games and tournaments.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 33.5 -0.2 34.2 0.5
FPPG (FD) 35.9 36.3 0.3 38.7 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.9 0.1 24.4 1.5

For whatever reason, DraftKings’ pricing algorithm is not a fan of Lopez. He is always price in the mid-$7,000 range, when he should be priced in the $8,000+ range. He is a borderline elite play tonight on DraftKings and he will likely get overlooked with Hassan Whiteside and Karl-Anthony Towns in such good spots.

Bojan Bogdanovic
bojan-bogdanovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.57 FP/Min:0.63
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.4 25.6 -0.8 30.0 3.6
FPPG (FD) 15.1 17.0 1.9 20.4 5.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 17.9 3.3 18.7 4.2

With Joe Johnson gone, Bogdanovic has seen a big boost in minutes, fantasy points, and usage over his last five games. He isn’t the most consistent fantasy option on the board, but he should see around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Nuggets.

Denver Nuggets

Record: 24-37 — Home: 12-18 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games, but are 5-point favorites tonight against the Nets at home. Denver is projected to score 106.5 points, which is the eighth highest team total on the board. The Nuggets also have the sixth highest projected point differential at +5.5.

The Nets are another team that we like to target players against, especially when the spread is close. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Danilo Gallinari remains out for the Nuggets, which gives a small boost to Will Barton, Gary Harris, and D.J. Augustin. Augustin may be a popular punt tonight, but I prefer to pay a little more for Jerryd Bayless.

Elite Plays

Will Barton
will-barton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$6,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.8 28.7 -0.1 30.7 1.9
FPPG (FD) 27.2 27.1 0.0 24.2 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.5 21.3 0.8 21.3 0.8

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That’s how everyone will feel about Barton tonight, after letting a lot of people down two games in a row. I’m not jumping ship just yet though, as he had a big first half against the Lakers and then DJ Augustin stole his second half minutes. Look for that to be an exception rather than the rule. I’m still projecting him to play minutes in the low 30s tonight and his ownership will be way lower than it should.

Secondary Plays

Gary Harris
gary-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 36.7 4.9 34.7 2.9
FPPG (FD) 19.1 22.1 3.0 21.5 2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 14.3 0.7 15.3 1.7

Harris is not flashy, but he should see big minutes again tonight against the Nets. With Danilo Gallinari out, Garris should see at least 35 minutes. He also comes into this game in good form, averaging 22.1 fantasy points over his last ten games.

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks Los Angeles Lakers
atlantanba Vegas Total 208.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd -9.0 Vegas Sprd 9.0
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Anthony Brown Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 29 23 28 Opp. Season 6 19 16 17 25
Last 3 Weeks 27 17 30 25 16 Last 3 Weeks 12 16 25 17 20

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 33-28 — Road: 14-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Hawks have lost six of their last ten games, but should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Lakers. The Hawks are listed as 9-point favorites here with an implied team total of 108.5 points. This is favorable matchup for fantasy production, as Atlanta has the fourth highest team total and projected point differential.

The Lakers have really struggled defensively this season, ranking 27th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The issue with the Lakers is always their ability to keep the game close. The good news is that this game is being played in Los Angeles, which could help the blowout potential.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$8,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 34.4 1.8 36.0 3.4
FPPG (FD) 37.0 36.6 -0.3 37.4 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 20.6 0.3 20.9 0.6

Even though Millsap has been playing well, his ownership has been down over the last couple of weeks. A matchup against the Lakers will likely change that though, as they are ranked 23rd against power forwards this season. The Lakers are also a poor rebounding team and Millsap should be able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet.

Secondary Plays

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 36.6 4.4 38.1 5.9
FPPG (FD) 32.4 38.3 5.9 42.9 10.5
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 18.1 -0.1 17.8 -0.3

Horford has seen a major boost in minutes over his last ten games, averaging 36.6 per contest. That’s considerably higher than this season average of 32.2 minutes. If he sees minutes in the mid-30s tonight against the Lakers, I like his chances of reaching and exceeding value. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play are the alternatives at his position.

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 12-50 — Home: 7-20 — Last 10: 1-9

The Lakers have lost nine of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Suns for the second fewest wins in the NBA. They are listed as 9-point underdogs tonight against the Hawks at home. The Lakers are projected to score 99.5 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.

The Hawks have actually been very good defensively this season, ranking seventh in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. Their biggest weakness is on the glass, as they have the second worst rebounding differential. There are two injuries to monitor here. Jordan Clarkson and Kobe Bryant are both listed as questionable. Nick Young could make an intriguing tournament play if they are both ruled out.

Elite Plays

D’Angelo Russell
d-angelo-russell-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.6 30.6 3.0 32.6 5.0
FPPG (FD) 23.1 29.2 6.1 35.2 12.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.1 1.3 23.1 3.3

Russell has really played well since entering the starting lineup. He is starting to look like the player that everyone was expecting him to be right from the get go. With Jordan Clarson and Kobe Bryant questionable, Russell is one of the top plays on the board again tonight. Even if those two players end up being active, Russell is still a top play at his price.

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle
julius-randle-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.7 30.2 2.5 29.4 1.7
FPPG (FD) 25.8 28.2 2.4 24.8 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 17.6 -0.5 17.6 -0.5

Randle doesn’t have the minute upside that I’m always looking for, but he averages 0.93 fantasy points per minute this season. He should see around 30 minutes tonight against the Hawks, who have the second worst rebounding differential in the NBA this season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious