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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-17 03:45:25

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks – 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks New York Knicks
atlantanba Vegas Total 209.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Mindaugas Kuzminskas Carmelo Anthony Joakim Noah
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 30 6 21 29 DvP 17 10 11 5 3
DRPM -2.22 -0.59 -0.21 -1.46 1.62 DRPM -2.27 -0.15 3.17 4.06 2.66

Atlanta Hawks

We have a sizable nine game slate on tap on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Five of the games will be played in the afternoon, which means we will have close to 13 hours of basketball to watch. The day kicks off with the Hawks and Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Atlanta has won eight of its last ten games, while the Knicks are in an absolute free-fall. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as New York is ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Hawks have one of the highest implied totals in the early slate and there are a number of viable fantasy options in their lineup.

Dennis Schroder is coming off of his two worst fantasy outings in the last two months. We should expect him to bounce back soon, but his price isn’t low enough that we need to take a chance on him against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked seventh against point guards this season. Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha figured to see increased roles after the Kyle Korver trade, but they are both seeing less than 30 minutes per game. If I’m taking a shot on a wing player from the Hawks, it will be Tim Hardaway. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Paul Millsap would see a nice boost if Kristaps Porzingis is ruled out again. He is averaging 36.7 fantasy points per game and is a tough cover for most bigs. Dwight Howard playing time is too inconsistent to trust in cash games, but he is always on my radar in tournaments. He has topped 40 fantasy points in three of his last ten games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,600 $6,200 0.95 30.6 -5.1 29.0 -8.4 29.8% -2.0% 7 -2.22
Kent Bazemore $4,300 $4,000 0.74 27.1 -0.7 20.0 1.1 20.5% 1.9% 30 -0.59
Thabo Sefolosha $3,900 $3,900 0.74 26.1 2.7 19.3 -1.2 14.2% 0.6% 6 -0.21
Paul Millsap $8,100 $7,700 1.06 34.1 0.7 36.2 0.7 24.9% -1.3% 21 -1.46
Dwight Howard $7,300 $7,000 1.15 29.4 -1.6 33.8 -3.1 18.9% -0.4% 29 1.62
Tim Hardaway $4,700 $5,000 0.76 22.5 2.5 17.1 6.1 22.7% -0.8% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway, Dwight Howard (GPP)

New York Knicks

It’s not a great time to be a Knicks fan. After being relevant for the first two months of the season, they have absolutely fallen apart. They have lost ten of their last 12 games and have some serious ground to make up if they are going to play in the postseason. A win today over the Hawks could go a long way in righting the ship, but they come into the game as underdogs. This is not the ideal matchup for fantasy production, as the Hawks are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

Kristaps Porzingis was unable to suit up for yesterday’s game against the Raptors and is not expected to suit up on Monday. He is listed as doubtful, but for our purposes, let’s assume that he is out. If we run the CourtIQ tool with Porzingis off the floor, we see that the two biggest beneficiaries are Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah. Anthony sees a 4.8% usage boost and a 0.17 FP/min boost. In the five games that Porzingis has missed this season, Noah is averaging 28.6 minutes and 30.2 fantasy points. Both are borderline elite plays against the Hawks. Derrick Rose draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Hawks have struggled to defend opposing point guards all season. Mindaugas Kuzminskas could be an intriguing punt play if he draws the start for Porzingis. Kyle O’Quinn is also worth a look in tournaments, as he is averaging 19 fantasy points per game with Porzingis out this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $6,300 0.89 31.9 -0.1 28.5 -1.8 27.9% -1.7% 17 -2.27
Courtney Lee $3,900 $3,700 0.56 30.7 -2.8 17.2 -4.7 13.9% -0.3% 10 -0.15
Mindaugas Kuzminskas $3,900 $3,400 0.78 12.3 8.8 9.6 5.0 19.4% 0.4% 11 3.17
Carmelo Anthony $8,100 $8,000 1.05 33.2 -1.2 35.0 -0.1 28.8% 0.0% 5 4.06
Joakim Noah $4,900 $5,000 0.93 22.8 0.7 21.3 1.4 14.5% 0.3% 3 2.66
Brandon Jennings $4,600 $3,800 0.81 23.4 -2.6 18.9 -5.2 23.2% 1.2% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Joakim Noah

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Kyle O’Quinn (GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards – 2:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Washington Wizards
portlandnba Vegas Total 219.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 111.5
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 2 18 16 18 7 DvP 12 2 27 28 28
DRPM -0.40 -0.63 1.34 1.18 1.39 DRPM -2.67 -2.38 0.12 2.49 0.52

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have won five of their last ten games and appear poised for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference if they can stay healthy. They face another borderline playoff team today in the Wizards. Washington has always been a nice matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Blazers have an implied total 108.3 points, which is one of the highest in the early slate.

Even though John Wall isn’t an elite defender, the Wizards have been stingy against point guards this season. They have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to the position, which lessens the appeal of Damian Lillard. He has only scored over 35 fantasy points one time in his last four meetings against Wall, but Lillard did drop 64.5 against them earlier this season. Given the depth of the position, Lillard is a better GPP play than cash game option. If Lillard struggles, that could open the door for C.J. McCollum, although his price is close to its highest point of the season. If Maurice Harkless is unable to suit up, that would give a sizable boost to Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, and Al-Farouq Aminu. All three are viable secondary options against the Wizards. Mason Plumlee has a high ceiling, but also a low floor in a matchup against Marcin Gortat, who has a DRPM of 1.39 this season. This is an interesting situation, as the Blazers are in a nice spot as a whole, but none of their players stand out as elite plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,400 $8,300 1.13 35.8 -2.5 40.5 -5.4 32.2% 2.6% 2 -0.40
C.J. McCollum $8,600 $7,800 1.01 34.8 -0.7 35.0 3.6 28.1% 0.2% 18 -0.63
Maurice Harkless $4,700 $4,400 0.72 30.8 1.0 22.1 3.4 15.8% -2.1% 16 1.34
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,700 $5,100 0.74 28.0 2.6 20.8 7.9 15.1% 2.6% 18 1.18
Mason Plumlee $6,500 $5,800 1.04 27.8 -2.4 28.9 -3.1 20.0% -1.5% 7 1.39
Evan Turner $4,400 $4,300 0.78 25.7 0.5 20.1 4.0 19.9% -0.8% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (GPP), C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Turner, Mason Plumlee (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and are tied for fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They have one of the biggest differences between their home and road records, which bodes well for today’s game against the Blazers. This is one of the best possible matchups, as Portland is ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Washington has an implied total of 111.8 points, which is 6.3 points above their season average.

Do you know who is consistently good at basketball? John Wall has scored at least 41 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games and he’s still priced under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against Damian Lillard, who has a DRPM of -2.67 this season. Wall has scored at least 51 fantasy points in two of his last three meetings against the Blazers. Bradley Beal should see around 35 minutes in an uptempo game. He’s not quite the play that Wall is, but he is in play in all formats. Otto Porter hurt his hip the other night, but says that he should be able to play today. He makes sense as a low owned tournament play, as most people will be scared off by the questionable tag. Markieff Morris has one of the best possible matchups in the slate. His range of potential outcomes is broad, but I’m willing to take the risk given his upside. Marcin Gortat remains one of the safest plays on the board. The Blazers don’t defend the paint well and are ranked 24th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,500 $9,300 1.23 36.4 -0.1 44.7 1.8 34.4% -0.9% 12 -2.67
Bradley Beal $6,900 $6,900 0.93 34.3 -0.5 31.7 0.7 26.7% 2.0% 2 -2.38
Otto Porter $6,100 $6,400 0.83 33.9 -0.3 28.1 -0.7 15.3% 0.1% 27 0.12
Markieff Morris $5,600 $6,000 0.79 31.3 -1.3 24.7 4.8 20.2% 3.6% 28 2.49
Marcin Gortat $6,000 $6,200 0.83 35.6 -3.6 29.4 -5.0 14.1% -0.1% 28 0.52

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks – 3:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Milwaukee Bucks
philadelphianba Vegas Total 206.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- -1.1 Pace +/- 0.8
Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 16 29 12 6 DvP 19 6 12 9 24
DRPM 3.11 -0.40 -0.89 -1.62 1.40 DRPM -1.44 -1.48 2.55 0.23 1.40

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won five of their last ten games and have been a fun team to watch recently. They have played better at home than on the road, but the same can be said about most NBA teams. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Bucks, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 11th in defensive efficiency. Philadelphia comes into the game as a 7-point underdog with an implied total of 99.8 points. Joel Embiid is expected to play today, as the Sixers aren’t on the front or tail end of a back-to-back.

The Bucks have been tough on opposing point guards this season, holding them to the sixth fewest fantasy points per game. However, with T.J. McConnell ruled out, Sergio Rodriguez should see all of the minutes that he can handle at a price of only $4,000 on FanDuel and $3,200 on DraftKings. Even in a bad matchup, Rodriguez is an elite value in all formats. Robert Covington has shown a high ceiling at times, but there are a few small forwards that I prefer instead, most notably Wilson Chandler, Otto Porter, and Aaron Gordon. Ersan Ilyasova and Jahlil Okafor have both played well at times, but both take a backseat to Joel Embiid, who is the only real fantasy option on the Sixers. Embiid is a usage monster that should see his full allotment of minutes (28).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Sergio Rodriguez $4,000 $3,200 0.80 25.4 -8.6 20.3 -8.6 24.2% 5.4% 6 3.11
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,600 0.57 26.5 0.9 15.2 -4.8 16.4% -1.3% 16 -0.40
Robert Covington $5,300 $5,500 0.75 30.0 -2.4 22.5 -2.4 17.7% -1.0% 29 -0.89
Ersan Ilyasova $5,900 $6,000 0.90 27.4 1.1 24.5 0.5 21.8% 3.0% 12 -1.62
Joel Embiid $8,000 $8,200 1.36 25.2 2.3 34.2 7.0 35.0% 1.3% 6 1.40

Elite Plays – Sergio Rodriguez, Joel Embiid (FD)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (DK)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and are a single game above .500 overall. The Sixers used to be one of the best matchups in the NBA, but they have been better defensively in the last month or so. On the season, Philadelphia is now ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency, which makes them a slightly above average matchup. The Bucks come into the game as 7-point favorites with an implied total of 106.8 points, which is slightly above their season average.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is fully recovered from his illness, as evidenced by his 57.6 fantasy point outing against the Hawks. I probably should have led with this, but JOY TO THE WORLD, Giannis is now small forward eligible on DraftKings. He is an elite play in all formats, even though he’ll likely see Robert Covington for most of the game. Malcolm Brogdon minutes have taken a hit in his last three games. For now, he can be avoided until he sees 30+ minutes on a consistent basis. Jabari Parker price is at one of its highest points of the season, but you have to like the matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 22nd in rebounding differential. Greg Monroe minutes are always difficult to predict, but he has scored at least 28 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,300 $10,500 1.36 34.8 -6.3 47.2 -12.9 29.9% -1.2% 19 -0.01
Malcolm Brogdon $5,400 $6,000 0.78 24.4 2.7 18.9 8.1 20.2% 1.2% 6 -1.48
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,400 0.53 29.2 -1.7 15.4 0.2 12.1% -1.2% 12 2.55
Jabari Parker $7,400 $7,400 0.96 34.1 -0.4 32.8 1.8 25.3% -2.1% 9 0.23
John Henson $3,500 $3,100 0.86 20.1 -0.9 17.3 -1.6 16.0% -2.5% 24 1.40
Greg Monroe $6,300 $6,100 1.15 21.3 3.3 24.4 -1.2 23.3% 4.8% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker

Secondary Plays – Greg Monroe

New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers – 4:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Indiana Pacers
neworleansnba Vegas Total 214.5 indiananba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- 1.5 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Terrence Jones Anthony Davis Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 25 20 23 26 19 DvP 28 11 19 27 13
DRPM -0.06 -0.76 -0.15 1.42 1.99 DRPM 0.93 -2.59 0.68 0.30 2.98

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have a decent shot at making the playoffs. They are only a game and a half behind the Blazers and they are the healthiest that they have been all season. They draw a favorable matchup today against the Pacers, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. The Pelicans come into the game as 5.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is 1.8 points higher than their season average.

Now that Tyreke Evans is playing more minutes, that directly takes usage away from Jrue Holiday. In his last three games, he is averaging only 25.6 fantasy points. The Pacers are a favorable matchup for point guards, but Holiday doesn’t stand out as a great play at his price point. Evans on the other hand is worth a look, especially in tournaments. He has scored 46 and 25 fantasy points in his last two games. More importantly, he averaged 25 minutes in those outings. After Terrence Jones played so well in Anthony Davis absence, they kept him in the starting lineup on Saturday. He played 34 minutes and scored 28 fantasy points. Jones will obviously have a lower usage rate in the starting lineup, but the minutes bump makes him an elite play on FanDuel. Davis scored 61 fantasy points in his first game back from injury. He is the top overall play in the early slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $6,600 $6,800 0.96 30.9 -2.3 29.6 -4.0 26.4% -1.1% 25 -0.06
Buddy Hield $3,800 $3,700 0.70 20.2 1.1 14.1 -0.7 20.9% -4.3% 20 -0.76
Solomon Hill $4,200 $3,600 0.53 27.5 3.5 14.6 6.2 11.1% 2.5% 23 -0.15
Terrence Jones $5,200 $5,700 0.90 24.4 4.3 21.9 6.8 19.6% -1.2% 26 1.42
Anthony Davis $11,600 $11,700 1.42 37.1 -3.0 52.6 13.1 31.3% 3.7% 19 1.99

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones (FD), Tyreke Evans (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (Cash)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won five of their last ten games and are tied for fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They have been terrific at home, sporting a 15-5 record. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. The Pacers come into the game with an implied total of 109.8 points, which is one of the highest totals in the early slate. It is also 3.8 points above their season average.

Jeff Teague has averaged 37 fantasy points in his last three games, but it’s tough to pay $7,500+ for him when Paul George is healthy. Teague basically needs to score 40 fantasy points to reach value today. While that is certainly in his wheelhouse, he doesn’t crack my list of top five point-per-dollar point guards. Paul George is one of my favorite plays in the slate. While I like Carmelo Anthony at a similar price point, I’m giving a small edge to George. His price is down across the industry and I like his matchup against the Pelicans. Thaddeus Young is a better play on FanDuel ($5,200) than DraftKings ($5,600), but he is far from a must start against Terrence Jones and/or Anthony Davis. Myles Turner averages 6.5 more fantasy points at home than he does on the road. Assuming the Pelicans stick with Jones in the starting lineup, Turner will start out defending Davis. That’s not an ideal matchup, but Turner is still in play on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,900 $7,500 1.06 31.8 -3.0 33.8 3.1 26.7% 0.9% 28 0.93
Glenn Robinson $3,600 $3,400 0.58 22.8 3.9 13.3 2.0 12.5% 0.7% 11 -2.59
Paul George $7,600 $7,700 1.02 35.3 -5.2 35.9 -5.4 26.9% 1.1% 19 0.68
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,600 0.76 31.3 -1.7 23.7 1.4 16.0% -1.5% 27 0.30
Myles Turner $6,800 $7,200 1.04 29.7 -1.5 31.0 2.0 19.5% 2.6% 13 2.98
Monta Ellis $3,600 $3,600 0.64 28.7 -6.0 18.3 -6.9 17.7% 1.3% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul George

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young (FD), Myles Turner (FD)

Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets – 5:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Denver Nuggets
orlandonba Vegas Total 221.5 denvernba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 113.3
Pace +/- 2.1 Pace +/- -0.6
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Jodie Meeks Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Wilson Chandler Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 28 8 22 20 DvP 26 19 18 10 22
DRPM -2.65 -1.74 -0.77 -1.64 1.33 DRPM -0.46 -1.47 -1.43 0.48 1.51

Orlando Magic

After nearly a month of messing around with the starting lineup, it appears that Frank Vogel is going to go with his best starting five moving forward. The Magic may not be the worst team in the NBA, but they’ve lost seven of their last ten games and are eight games below .500 overall. Today’s matchup against the Nuggets is a favorable one though, as Denver is ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. As long as this game stays close, the Magic should have no problems on the offensive end of the floor.

The latest update on Evan Fournier foot injury is that he doesn’t have a timetable to return. That all but rules him out of today’s game against the Nuggets. If we run the CourtIQ tool, we can see that Serge Ibaka and Aaron Gordon both see nice usage bumps. Ibaka was a popular play with Fournier out earlier in the season, but it may be a different story now that Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic are back in the starting lineup. Those two players soak up so much usage that I’m going to pass on Ibaka. Gordon has played at least 36 minutes in four of his last five games and draws a nice matchup against the Nuggets. He is wildly inconsistent, but this is a terrific spot. Payton also struggles with consistency, but after scoring 57 fantasy points against the Jazz, I can’t wait to see what he can do to Denver’s backcourt. Jodie Meeks is a viable punt play, as he should play 26-28 minutes in Fournier’s absence. Last but not least, we have Vucevic, who is averaging 41 fantasy points in his last three games. With his minutes secure, Vucevic is an elite play in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,000 $6,200 0.93 28.8 3.4 26.8 7.1 25.1% 4.6% 29 -2.65
Jodie Meeks $3,800 $4,000 0.72 21.4 6.7 15.5 7.9 18.2% -0.3% 28 -1.74
Aaron Gordon $5,000 $5,800 0.78 27.2 11.1 21.1 6.6 19.8% -3.2% 8 -0.77
Serge Ibaka $6,300 $5,900 0.94 30.7 -0.2 28.8 -4.5 20.4% -4.0% 22 -1.64
Nikola Vucevic $7,100 $6,600 1.14 28.3 3.8 32.3 8.8 25.2% 1.9% 20 1.33

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Jodie Meeks (FD), Aaron Gordon (FD), Nikola Vucevic

Secondary Plays – Jodie Meeks (DK), Aaron Gordon (DK)

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have lost seven of their last ten games, but draw a winnable matchup against the Magic. On the season, Orlando is ranked 14th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Denver should be able to control the tempo playing at home, which is a good thing for fantasy production, as they are ranked fifth in pace of play. The Nuggets have one of the highest implied points totals in the early slate and this game can be stacked in both cash games and tournaments.

The Magic aren’t particularly effective at defending any position, but they really struggle against point guards. The problem is that we can’t trust Emmanuel Mudiay farther than we can throw him. Even if we grouped together, we probably couldn’t throw him more than a couple of feet. Gary Harris is expected to play today and assuming he isn’t on a minute restriction, he stands out as one of the best values at shooting guard. Will Barton is also cheap across the industry and worth a look in tournaments. Wilson Chandler price is too cheap on FanDuel and he is averaging 34 fantasy points in his last three games. Nikola Jokic has scored at least 37 fantasy points in seven straight games and draws the defense of Nikola Vucevic. His price is at an all-time high, but he remains an elite GPP play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,500 $4,600 0.76 28.8 -3.6 22.0 -5.4 24.4% -3.5% 26 -0.46
Gary Harris $4,800 $4,700 0.80 27.9 2.3 22.5 2.4 19.8% -0.7% 19 -1.07
Danilo Gallinari $5,900 $6,000 0.79 34.0 -2.9 26.7 -3.7 19.5% 1.8% 18 -1.43
Wilson Chandler $5,800 $6,400 0.90 31.2 -1.9 28.1 6.0 23.1% 0.2% 10 0.48
Nikola Jokic $8,000 $7,900 1.19 24.8 4.0 29.5 12.6 22.2% 2.7% 22 1.51
Will Barton $4,800 $5,200 0.83 28.7 -6.3 23.9 -0.2 21.5% 2.2% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Wilson Chandler (FD), Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Wilson Chandler (DK), Will Barton (GPP), Nikola Jokic (Cash)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious