NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Kobi Simmons | Ben McLemore | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 1 | DvP | 8 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 15 | 17 | 28 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 5 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s a strange week in the association. The two weeknights that feature the most games are Tuesday and Thursday. We kick off the week with a four-game slate that features a surprising amount of value plays. The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games, but are still five games clear of the Pistons for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tonight they head to Memphis to take on a Grizzlies team that is making tanking look easy. The Bucks are listed as 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.3 points, which is the fourth highest on the board and slightly above their season average.
Eric Bledsoe has been a favorite target of mine over the last few weeks. He regularly plays 35 minutes with Malcolm Brogdon out of the lineup and that should continue tonight against the Grizzlies, who are playing without their best four point guards (Conley, Evans, Harrison, and Chalmers). Bledsoe’s price on DraftKings ($6,800) is enticing and I wouldn’t hesitate to play him on FanDuel ($7,500) where he will be lower owned. Khris Middleton has a difficult matchup on paper (Grizzlies are ranked second in efficiency against small forwards), but Ben McLemore and Dillon Brooks are mediocre defenders at best. Middleton is affordable and he should play minutes in the mid to upper-30s.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely fly under the radar tonight in a slate that features Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Giannis had one bad outing against the Pistons, but has otherwise been in great form, scoring at least 52 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Call me crazy, but I don’t see anyone on the Grizzlies’ roster that matches up well with the Alphabet. John Henson has the worst matchup of the five starters, as he’ll lock horns with Marc Gasol. Jabari Parker would typically be a strong play in a slate this size, but there are three power forward-eligible players from the Heat that I would rather target tonight.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 33.6 | 1.6 | 31.4 | 3.2 | 1.07 | 23.6% | 21 | 17 | 23 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 14.2 | -1.4 | 28.6 | -3.6 | 0.49 | 9.7% | 13 | 25 | 15 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,000 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 34.3 | -0.7 | 36.5 | -0.3 | 0.94 | 22.3% | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,900 | $10,800 | $19,000 | 52.7 | 1.0 | 37.3 | 1.7 | 1.41 | 28.1% | 22 | 12 | 28 |
| John Henson | $5,000 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 23.4 | -1.7 | 25.6 | 0.4 | 0.91 | 13.0% | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| Jabari Parker | $5,300 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 19.9 | 3.3 | 21.0 | 2.8 | 0.95 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash)
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have lost 17 games in a row and are the odds-on favorite to finish with the worst record in the NBA. They should be able to continue their losing ways tonight, as they take on a Bucks’ team that is still jockeying for position in the East. As for the matchup itself, this is a mediocre one. Milwaukee is ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 98.8 points, which is the second lowest on the board.
Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers, and Andrew Harrison have all been ruled out of tonight’s game. Kobi Simmons, Ben McLemore, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes will continue to share the ball-handling duties. While the matchup is far from ideal, Simmons and Rathan-Mayes are intriguing tournament fliers. McLemore is viable in all formats on FanDuel. Not only do we have to play two shooting guards on FanDuel, but he has been in solid form recently, averaging 35 minutes and 30 fantasy points over his last five games.
Jarell Martin is listed as questionable once again. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Dillon Brooks, JaMychal Green, and Marc Gasol. If Martin is active, he becomes an intriguing tournament play and I would have significantly less interest in Brooks and Green. Gasol is competing with his brother for the honor of being the best point-per-dollar target at center tonight. Over his last give games, Marc has averaged 40 fantasy points per contest. It doesn’t hurt that the Bucks are ranked 28th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against centers this season.
Notable Injuries
Jarell Martin (Questionable)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.5 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Simmons | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 18.3 | 8.8 | 0.65 | 15.6% | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Ben McLemore | $5,000 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 12.9 | 17.1 | 18.5 | 16.2 | 0.70 | 16.0% | 19 | 12 | 26 |
| Dillon Brooks | $5,200 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 17.2 | 7.4 | 28.6 | 3.9 | 0.60 | 14.9% | 12 | 2 | 25 |
| JaMychal Green | $6,200 | $7,100 | $13,000 | 24.0 | 6.9 | 27.5 | 4.2 | 0.87 | 16.0% | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,800 | $7,500 | $13,400 | 37.9 | 2.1 | 33.8 | -1.9 | 1.12 | 23.4% | 28 | 26 | 5 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,500 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 16.1 | 8.9 | 21.6 | 9.9 | 0.74 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Xavier Rathan-Mayes | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 24.1 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marc Gasol, Ben McLemore (FD)
Secondary Plays – Ben McLemore (DK), Kobi Simmons (GPP), Xavier Rathan-Mayes (GPP), Jarell Martin (if active), Dillon Brooks & JaMychal Green (if Martin is out)
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Justin Jackson | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 2 | DvP | 18 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 20 | 5 | 27 | 20 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 23 | 23 | 28 | 24 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games and are currently tied for the fifth-worst record in the NBA. It’s important to understand each team’s motivation at this point of the season and the Kings have zero incentive to win basketball games. They own their 2018 first-round pick, so every win from here on out could cost them the shot at a better player in the draft. They come into tonight’s game as 12-point underdogs on the road against the Thunder, who are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
De’Aaron Fox was able to suit up last night and ended up playing 30 minutes. Clearly, his back injury wasn’t bothering him, so we should expect a full complement of minutes again tonight. While I don’t hate the play in tournaments, there are better targets at point guard. Bogdan Bogdanovic has seen his minutes decline, largely in part thanks to poor play over the last couple of weeks. At this point, we should have more interest in Buddy Hield, who has averaged 29 minutes and 22 fantasy points over his last five games. With Andre Roberson out, the Thunder have struggled to contain talented shooting guards.
The Kings’ frontcourt has been easier to predict recently thanks to a number of injuries. Skal Labissiere has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and Zach Randolph has sat out every other game in each of the last nine. After playing 21 minutes against the Nuggets on Sunday, there’s a decent chance Randolph gets the night off. This opens the door for Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos, who could both log heavy minutes against the Thunder. The matchup isn’t great and we have the potential for a blowout, but they both deserve consideration if Randolph ends up getting ruled out before lineups lock.
Notable Injuries
Skal Labissiere (Out)
Zach Randolph (Potential Rest)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 99.2 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,700 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 22.5 | -2.6 | 27.2 | -4.3 | 0.83 | 21.7% | 11 | 5 | 8 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 22.4 | -0.3 | 27.6 | -1.1 | 0.81 | 18.4% | 17 | 20 | 20 |
| Justin Jackson | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 20.8 | 7.5 | 0.60 | 13.2% | 14 | 8 | 5 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,900 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 26.9 | -5.4 | 25.8 | -1.2 | 1.04 | 24.2% | 15 | 11 | 27 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $7,200 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.7 | 0.4 | 27.7 | 2.5 | 1.04 | 19.8% | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Buddy Hield | $5,700 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 21.9 | -0.7 | 24.5 | 4.2 | 0.89 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kosta Koufos | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 18.5 | 7.1 | 19.4 | 6.4 | 0.95 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, Kosta Koufos
Oklahoma City Thunder
Things are heating up in the West. We have seven teams separated by two games in the loss column and only five of them are going to end up making the playoffs. The Thunder are currently right in the middle of that group, so they could realistically host a first-round playoff series or miss the postseason altogether. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. The Thunder have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
Predicting blowouts is not a business that I want to be in. Generally, I try to take them out of the equation if there is enough upside in the game, but I’m struggling a bit tonight. We have one team that is in must-lose mode and another that is in must-win mode. I would not be surprised if the Kings found themselves in a 20-point hole at halftime. To make matters worse, the Thunder are playing in the front end of a back-to-back. I’m not saying that we should fade the Thunder completely, but they are certainly better tournament plays than cash game targets.
Russell Westbrook has as much upside as any player in the slate. If he plays a full complement of minutes, he should have no problem reaching value against a Kings’ team that is ranked 18th in DvP against point guards. Corey Brewer has averaged 28 minutes and 22 fantasy points over his last two games. At a price under $4,000, he offers solid value in all formats. Paul George is expensive, but certainly should play well in this matchup. Carmelo Anthony doesn’t make his way into many of my lineups and with all of the value at power forward tonight, that trend is going to continue. Steven Adams is currently listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, Jerami Grant and Patrick Patterson could see a few extra minutes off the bench.
Notable Injuries
Steven Adams (Questionable)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.2 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,100 | $11,600 | $20,800 | 53.2 | -0.2 | 36.2 | -0.4 | 1.47 | 34.3% | 13 | 18 | 29 |
| Corey Brewer | $3,800 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 9.5 | 0.71 | 13.3% | 26 | 15 | 23 |
| Paul George | $8,800 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 39.1 | -2.1 | 36.5 | -1.0 | 1.07 | 23.5% | 19 | 15 | 23 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.0 | -5.3 | 32.2 | -1.9 | 0.87 | 21.7% | 18 | 20 | 28 |
| Steven Adams | $7,200 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 31.7 | -2.2 | 32.6 | -1.6 | 0.97 | 14.4% | 29 | 29 | 24 |
| Jerami Grant | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.3 | 3.4 | 20.7 | 0.9 | 0.84 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Patrick Patterson | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 0.61 | 10.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (GPP), Paul George (GPP), Corey Brewer
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash), Paul George (Cash), Steven Adams (if active)
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.8 | Implied Team Total | 110.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dejounte Murray | Patty Mills | Kyle Anderson | Davis Bertans | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 24 | DvP | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 3 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 28 | 1 | 23 | 6 | |
San Antonio Spurs
This is typically the time of year when the Spurs are gearing up for another playoff run. Greg Popovich typically plays his veterans fewer minutes down the stretch of the regular season, but he doesn’t have that luxury this year. If the Spurs lose tonight, they will fall into a three-way tie for the eighth and last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Even though they are listed as 12-point underdogs, I don’t see them waiving the white flag early in this game. The Spurs may have a low implied total (98.8 points), but there are viable fantasy options in this lineup.
Dejounte Murray has struggled with consistency this season, but has averaged 26 fantasy points over his last five games. Of the five starters, Murray sees the second biggest boost in FP/min (+0.08) with LaMarcus Aldridge out of the lineup. Despite a difficult matchup against Chris Paul, Murray is on my short list of potential point guard targets on DraftKings ($5,600). Patty Mills and Danny Green should both play significant minutes tonight with Manu Ginobili out. Mills is the preferred target in cash games, while Green carries more upside for tournaments.
Kyle Anderson has scored at least 20 fantasy points in six straight games, but has only topped 30 minutes one time during that stretch. He’s certainly viable in tournaments, but there are better options in cash games. Dollar for dollar, I’d rather play Rudy Gay, who has averaged 25 fantasy points over his last five games. Gay sees a significant usage (+5%) and FP/min (+0.20) boost with Aldridge out of the lineup this season. Pau Gasol will be one of the best point-per-dollar targets of the slate if this game stays competitive. He could push for 30 minutes tonight and on the season, he has averaged 1.27 fantasy points per minute with Aldridge off the floor.
Notable Injuries
LaMarcus Aldridge (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Manu Ginobili (Out)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | $6,300 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 20.8 | 5.3 | 20.2 | 6.3 | 1.03 | 19.7% | 6 | 7 | 2 |
| Patty Mills | $4,200 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 17.2 | -0.9 | 24.5 | 4.3 | 0.70 | 17.5% | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 24.7 | 4.5 | 27.4 | -0.4 | 0.90 | 13.3% | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| Davis Bertans | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 15.6 | 5.3 | 0.81 | 15.9% | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,000 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 28.4 | 4.5 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 1.14 | 19.0% | 16 | 24 | 3 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,400 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 22.6 | 2.6 | 22.2 | -1.5 | 1.02 | 20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joffrey Lauvergne | $3,600 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 0.97 | 18.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Danny Green | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 20.6 | -5.5 | 25.9 | -2.8 | 0.80 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol, Dejounte Murray (DK), Kyle Anderson (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray (FD), Kyle Anderson (Cash), Patty Mills, Danny Green
Houston Rockets
The Rockets had their winning streak snapped a few nights ago, but they still own the best record in basketball. They currently hold a two-game lead over the Warriors in the loss column with only 16 to play. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked 29th in pace of play and first in points allowed per game this season. Granted, the Spurs are missing two of their best players, but Houston’s implied total (110.8 points) is still three points below their season average.
Chris Paul is cheap across the industry, despite averaging 33 minutes over his last five games. He draws a difficult matchup against Dejounte Murray (highest DRPM of any point guard in the NBA), but Paul is matchup-proof. I will gladly take the discount, especially on DraftKings ($7,700). James Harden is expected to play after sitting out last night’s game against the Mavericks. He had some soreness in his knee, but it’s not anything serious. He should play a full complement of minutes tonight against the Spurs.
With Ryan Anderson out, we can expect big minutes from Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Eric Gordon. While you can make a case for them as value plays in a vacuum, I personally like the value plays from Miami a bit more. With that said, Ariza deserves a look on DraftKings ($4,700), while Gordon offers nice upside in tournaments. Clint Capela has been held under 23 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He’s not exactly on the good side of most DFS players. I don’t mind targeting him in tournaments, but prefer the Gasol brothers in cash games.
Notable Injuries
Ryan Anderson (Out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 113.8 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,300 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 41.6 | -4.6 | 32.0 | 1.1 | 1.30 | 25.7% | 12 | 3 | 1 |
| James Harden | $11,200 | $10,700 | $19,200 | 53.8 | 0.1 | 35.7 | -0.2 | 1.51 | 33.6% | 1 | 2 | 28 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.9 | 0.8 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 0.69 | 13.0% | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,800 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.6 | 1.5 | 27.7 | 1.6 | 0.60 | 8.7% | 6 | 4 | 23 |
| Clint Capela | $7,200 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 35.1 | -9.3 | 27.2 | -1.5 | 1.29 | 17.0% | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,500 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 26.0 | 2.9 | 31.6 | -1.7 | 0.82 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,700 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 16.5 | -1.3 | 26.6 | -1.7 | 0.62 | 10.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Johnson | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 13.9 | -4.0 | 22.3 | -3.5 | 0.63 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden
Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza (DK), Eric Gordon (GPP), Clint Capela (GPP)
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Bam Adebayo | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 3 | DvP | 4 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 25 | 16 | 4 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 10 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. They are only two and a half games behind the Cavaliers (who are currently in fourth), so they have a chance to move up in the standings before the playoffs start. They have a difficult matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite missing two key players, the Heat have an implied total of 101 points.
Dwyane Wade has been ruled out of tonight’s game. While he doesn’t play a ton off the bench at this point of his career, his absence opens up 24 minutes in the rotation and plenty of usage in the offense. I expect Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington to be the primary beneficiaries, but Goran Dragic could see a few extra minutes as well. Dollar for dollar, I would rank the three Heat guards in the following order: Johnson, Dragic, and then Ellington. Josh Richardson minutes have been all over the map recently, but he got into foul trouble in two of those games and there was a blowout in another. With Wade out, I expect Richardson to play 33-35 minutes, which makes him one of the top targets at small forward.
Hassan Whiteside has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which is great news for James Johnson, Bam Adebayo, and Kelly Olynyk. In the 21 games that Whiteside has missed over the last two seasons, Johnson has averaged 27 minutes and 28 fantasy points per contest. I expect him to be the lowest owned of these three, which makes Johnson an intriguing play in all formats. Adebayo will likely draw the start and assuming he stays out of foul trouble, could end up being the best value play of the slate. Olynyk has the Marcus Smart syndrome, where he seems to bust every time he is chalky in DFS. With that said, he’s still an excellent play in a game where he should push for minutes in the upper-20s. Justise Winslow has really turned a corner over the last month of play. His price has come up, but he’s a safe bet to play minutes in the high 20s and potentially even in the low 30s.
Notable Injuries
Dwyane Wade (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 30.6 | -3.8 | 31.6 | -3.2 | 0.97 | 25.2% | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,900 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 22.5 | 1.3 | 29.0 | -2.1 | 0.78 | 17.7% | 10 | 9 | 25 |
| Josh Richardson | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 26.8 | -0.2 | 33.5 | -7.0 | 0.80 | 16.7% | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| James Johnson | $4,600 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 23.8 | 0.2 | 25.9 | -5.4 | 0.92 | 18.2% | 11 | 13 | 4 |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 18.1 | -11.1 | 19.7 | -9.8 | 0.92 | 14.6% | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Justise Winslow | $5,000 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 19.3 | 10.1 | 23.9 | 6.6 | 0.81 | 14.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,100 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 22.7 | 7.2 | 23.2 | -0.4 | 0.98 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 17.8 | 2.9 | 26.3 | -3.1 | 0.67 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk, Justise Winslow (FD)
Secondary Plays – Justise Winslow (DK), Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson (FD), Wayne Ellington
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers aren’t one of the aforementioned seven teams separated by two losses in the West, but they aren’t out of the woodwork just yet. They currently have a record of 40-26, which puts them in third place in the standings. Each and every game from here on out will be critical, as they would love to host a first-round playoff series. Tonight they square off against the Heat, who are missing two of their best players. The matchup may look difficult on paper, but the Blazers have an implied total of 108.5 points, which is the third highest of the slate.
Damian Lillard is an interesting pivot off of Russell Westbrook and James Harden in tournaments. He shouldn’t garner a ton of ownership, even though the Blazers have a high team total. I’m not particularly worried about his matchup against Goran Dragic and he could actually benefit from Hassan Whiteside being out (Bam Adebayo isn’t quite as good of a rim protector). C.J. McCollum grades out as an elite play in my model, but I always seem to be on the wrong side of him. I like his price point (especially on DraftKings), but I’m not sure if McCollum will make my main lineup on any of the sites.
Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner can be avoided when both are healthy, as they cut into each other’s minutes and production. Al-Farouq Aminu is priced at a serious discount, but his minutes and fantasy production are trending in the wrong direction. This matchup seems to fit Aminu’s skillset more than that of Ed Davis, but I see them both as secondary options given the great plays on the other side of the ball. Jusuf Nurkic is great on a per-minute basis, but we never really know how many minutes he’s going to play on a nightly basis. He’s always viable in tournaments, but too volatile to trust in a cash game setting.
Notable Injuries
None
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,500 | $9,300 | $17,000 | 43.1 | 1.5 | 36.5 | 0.0 | 1.18 | 29.2% | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 33.4 | 5.7 | 36.1 | 1.3 | 0.93 | 24.7% | 8 | 13 | 14 |
| Maurice Harkless | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 13.7 | -6.5 | 20.7 | -7.0 | 0.66 | 11.1% | 13 | 3 | 10 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 22.9 | -6.0 | 29.6 | -4.4 | 0.77 | 12.9% | 13 | 6 | 14 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,000 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 30.4 | -5.0 | 26.1 | -4.9 | 1.16 | 22.7% | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| Ed Davis | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 18.4 | 7.6 | 19.1 | 4.2 | 0.96 | 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 16.8 | -1.7 | 25.6 | -0.6 | 0.66 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |