NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-06 03:35:15

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		209.5					Vegas Total		209.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		103.5					Implied Team Total		106.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.8					Pace Projection +/-		-1.7
Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson		Projected Starters	Cory Joseph	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	6	16	10	27		DvP	8	9	2	9	25
DRPM Rat.	23	1	27	8	19		DRPM Rat.	7	25	24	2	6

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games. After looking like they were going to challenge for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, they would barely sneak into the postseason as the seven-seed if it started today. Milwaukee is playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they draw a mediocre matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked between tenth and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks have an implied total of 103.5 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.

The Pacers are ranked inside the top ten in efficiency and DvP against point guards, but Cory Joseph is a significantly worse defender than Darren Collison. Eric Bledsoe has regularly been playing 35+ minutes a night with Malcolm Brogdon out and his price is more than reasonable on DraftKings ($7,000). Khris Middleton price has increased on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he will likely draw the defense of Victor Oladipo, who has one of the highest defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades of any shooting guard in the NBA.

Giannis Antetokounmpo could be an intriguing leverage play off of the more popular LeBron James. While Giannis doesn’t have the same floor as LeBron, he does offer a similar ceiling at a lower price point and lower ownership. John Henson is typically overpriced on FanDuel and underpriced on DraftKings and tonight is no exception. The best way to attack Indiana is at the center position, as they are ranked 27th in efficiency this season. Jabari Parker only played 18 minutes in the second half of his first back-to-back set this season. After logging 21 minutes last night, I’m not expecting him to play more than 20-22 minutes tonight.

Notable Injuries

Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Tyler Zeller (Questionable)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (11 of 14)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK), Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (Cash), John Henson (DK)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won seven of their last ten games and have nearly caught up to the Cavaliers for the third best record in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s matchup against the Bucks isn’t what I would call ideal, but it helps that they are playing at home. The Bucks are currently ranked 24th in pace of play and 13th in points allowed per game. Indiana has an implied total of 106 points, which is the sixth lowest of the slate and slightly below their season average.

Cory Joseph has played at least 36 minutes in three of his last four games, including a 31-fantasy point outing against this same Bucks’ team. While the matchup against Eric Bledsoe is a difficult one, Joseph is a safe bet to play 30+ minutes and he’s only $4,200 on FanDuel. He’s not a must play now that Kyrie Irving has been ruled out, but Joseph offers solid value at his price point. Victor Oladipo has averaged 47 fantasy points over his last five games and has the second best matchup of the five starters. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 20th in efficiency against shooting guards.

Bojan Bogdanovic is not a flashy play, but similar to Joseph, he is underpriced on FanDuel ($4,700). Over his last five games, Bogdanovic has averaged 34 minutes and 26 fantasy points. Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis continue to eat into each other’s minutes and fantasy production. They are both easy fades at the moment. Myles Turner has an exploitable matchup against the Bucks, who are ranked 29th in efficiency and 25th in DvP against centers this season. Turner’s volatility makes him a risky cash game option, but we can chase his upside in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Darren Collison (Out)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (9 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.6 (10 of 14)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Cory Joseph (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic (FD), Myles Turner (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (Cash), Victor Oladipo

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		219.5					Vegas Total		219.5
			Vegas Spread		6.0					Vegas Spread		-6.0
			Implied Team Total		106.8					Implied Team Total		112.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Ish Smith	Reggie Bullock	James Ennis	Blake Griffin	Andre Drummond		Projected Starters	George Hill	J.R. Smith	Cedi Osman	LeBron James	Larry Nance
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	28	25	29	18	20		DvP	10	8	25	22	5
DRPM Rat.	25	27	14	19	2		DRPM Rat.	16	25	26	25	7

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have lost eight of their last ten games and now trail the eighth-seeded Heat by four games. While there is still time for Detroit to make a run, the Blake Griffin trade hasn’t quite worked out as well as they had hoped. Tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is an exploitable one, as Cleveland is ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate and four points above their season average.

Ish Smith has put up three duds in a row, but did have at least 25 fantasy points in each of his previous four games. We can’t play him with confidence, but $5,100 (DraftKings) for a starting point guard against the Cavaliers is intriguing in tournaments. Dwight Buycks is a sneaky punt play in tournaments, as he would pick up the slack if Smith struggled again. Reggie Bullock has played well over his last five games, averaging 32 minutes and 25 fantasy points per contest. His price is palatable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. James Ennis is my favorite super punt on DraftKings ($3,400), as he has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games.

The two plays that make the most sense here are Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. The Cavaliers are missing three key pieces in their frontcourt and will likely start Larry Nance at center. Griffin and Drummond should be able to dominate the paint and I’m expecting strong games from both players. Griffin seemed to find something in the two games over the weekend, scoring 39 and 44 fantasy points. Drummond has 20/20 upside in an uptempo game against an under-sized Cavaliers’ team. I rarely say this, but don’t be afraid to play Griffin and Drummond in the same lineup, especially in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Reggie Jackson (Out)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (6 of 14)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.8 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP), James Ennis (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith (DK), Dwight Buycks (DK), Reggie Bullock

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. While I don’t expect it to happen, they could easily fall down to the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference if they aren’t careful over the next month of play. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons is significantly better than it looks on paper. Not only has Detroit struggled defensively since their blockbuster trade, but Cleveland is playing at home. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the third highest on the board and three points above their season average.

Cedi Osman was seen wearing a second unit jersey at shoot-around this morning, so don’t be surprised to see Rodney Hood draw the start at small forward. We’ll know before lineups lock, but I wanted to give everyone a heads up. Whether Hood starts or not, he’s an excellent play in all formats. He is a safe bet to play 30+ minutes against a Pistons’ team that has awful wing defenders in James Ennis, Reggie Bullock, and Stanley Johnson. George Hill is too volatile to trust in cash games, but grades out as a nice value in tournaments. Jordan Clarkson hasn’t quite seen the minutes that we were hoping for, but the injuries to the Cavaliers could help. I like Clarkson’s chances to reach value if he plays 25+ minutes tonight.

LeBron James has scored at least 50 fantasy points in every game over the last month of play (shoutout to Andy Means for that stat). There is plenty of value available tonight, which makes paying up for James an easy task in both cash games and tournaments. Larry Nance is an extremely productive player while on the floor (1.09 FP/min this season). With Jeff Green and Tristan Thompson out, Nance is expected to start at center and he should be locked into 30+ minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. While that’s a significant risk against the likes of Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin, Nance has too much upside at this price point for me to consider fading him.

Notable Injuries

Tristan Thompson (Out)
Jeff Green (Out)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.0 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (7 of 14)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Larry Nance, Rodney Hood, George Hill (GPP), Jordan Clarkson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – George Hill (Cash), Jordan Clarkson (Cash)

Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		218.5					Vegas Total		218.5
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		114.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.0
Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Dragan Bender	Tyson Chandler		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	12	3	7	9		DvP	29	30	18	30	23
DRPM Rat.	22	15	8	13	1		DRPM Rat.	22	28	28	27	6

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Hawks in Atlanta. To make matters worse, they draw a pace-down matchup against the Heat, who are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency this season. The Suns’ implied total of 104.5 points is close to their season average, but significantly lower than the number of points they have averaged over the last few weeks.

There are two scenarios where I like to target Elfrid Payton — in uptempo games and when the opponent doesn’t have a good rim protector. He doesn’t have either criteria tonight against the Heat, but the recent form has been so good that I might make an exception. Over his last five games, Payton has averaged 35 minutes and 40 fantasy points. Devin Booker is playing close to 40 minutes a night and despite averaged 48 fantasy points over his last five games is still only $8,200 on FanDuel.

T.J. Warren should also play as many minutes as he can handle. While the matchup against Miami is far from ideal, there is something to be said about rostering players that we expect to play 35+ minutes and take at least 15 shots. Josh Jackson has been a bright spot off the bench, but is a deep tournament play at best given his inflated price point. Keep an eye on the status of Tyson Chandler. He has sat in the second half of most back-to-back sets this season and he logged 26 minutes last night against the Hawks. If Chandler is ruled out, Alex Len would draw the start and push for minutes in the mid to upper 20s.

Notable Injuries

Troy Daniels (Doubtful)

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 104.7 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (9 of 14)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – T.J. Warren, Devin Booker (FD), Elfrid Payton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Devin Booker (DK), Elfrid Payton (Cash), Josh Jackson (FD GPP), Alex Len (if Chandler is out)

Miami Heat

The Heat have lost six of their last ten games, but haven’t really lost ground to the teams chasing them for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. They draw the premier matchup in fantasy basketball, as they face a Suns’ team that is ranked first in pace of play, 30th in points allowed per game, and 30th in defensive efficiency. Miami has an implied total of 114 points, which is the highest on the board and a whopping 13 points above their season average.

Even though trying to predict Miami’s rotation can cause headaches, it’s certainly worth a shot in this matchup. Goran Dragic has played well over his last five games and gets to face a Suns’ team that is ranked dead last in efficiency against point guards. If Tyler Johnson is out, Dragic becomes an elite play in all formats. If Johnson is active, Dragic will be an elite play on FanDuel and a secondary play on DraftKings. As for Johnson, I’m going to wait until he plays a game before targeting him in DFS. Dwyane Wade has shown massive upside off the bench and is still priced at $4,900 on FanDuel.

Josh Richardson might be the safest bet of the five starters, as he regularly sees minutes in the mid-30s and can rack up fantasy production a number of different ways. James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk are both viable tournament options given the matchup, but I’m hesitant to play them in a cash game setting with Bam Adebayo expected back tonight. I never quite know what to do with Hassan Whiteside, but it’s hard not to like him in a home matchup against the Suns, who could potentially be without Tyson Chandler. The upside is always there with Whiteside and his inconsistent play keep his price point reasonable.

Notable Injuries

Tyler Johnson (Questionable)
Wayne Ellington (Doubtful)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 101.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 12.6 (1 of 14)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.2 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, Goran Dragic (FD), Dwyane Wade (FD), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Hassan Whiteside (Cash), James Johnson (GPP), Kelly Olynyk (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Chicago Bulls
			Vegas Total		210.5					Vegas Total		210.5
			Vegas Spread		-7.5					Vegas Spread		7.5
			Implied Team Total		109.0					Implied Team Total		101.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.7					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Marcus Smart	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Zach LaVine	David Nwaba	Lauri Markkanen	Bobby Portis
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	27	15	25	21		DvP	1	4	10	3	10
DRPM Rat.	12	26	12	26	29		DRPM Rat.	3	2	5	2	1

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games and look destined for the two-seed in the East. They are currently two games behind the Raptors and seven games ahead of the Cavaliers. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls is an exploitable one, as Chicago is ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 109 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and five points above their season average.

Brad Stevens has yet to announce a starting point guard with Kyrie Irving out, but Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart will both benefit immensely. Kyrie’s absence opens up 30+ minutes in the rotation and plenty of usage in the offense. Selfishly, I hope that Rozier draws the start. Anytime Smart becomes the chalk in DFS, he puts up a dud. The three things that we can rely on in life are death, taxes, and Smart busting when he’s chalk. If he comes off the bench, it should help lower his ownership. Rozier is an elite play regardless, as he’ll push for 30 minutes in a great matchup against the Bulls.

Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum haven’t been in the best of form recently, but they should both see a few extra minutes tonight. While everyone will gravitate to Rozier and Smart, I expect Brown and Tatum to be low owned in both cash games and tournaments. Al Horford has basically disappeared since the Celtics’ acquired Greg Monroe. I’d like to target both in this matchup, but neither is playing enough minutes to warrant consideration at their respective price points. Marcus Morris has the most appeal in the Celtics’ frontcourt, as his minutes are actually trending upward. Over his last five games, Morris has averaged 29 minutes and 26 fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

Kyrie Irving (Out)
Daniel Theis (Probable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 (4 of 14)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown (GPP), Jayson Tatum (GPP), Marcus Morris (FD), Greg Monroe (FD GPP)

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have nothing to play for at this point of the season, which is why they have decided to bench the likes of Robin Lopez, Justin Holiday, and Jerian Grant. Luckily, they have a decent collection of young talent and will have two first-round picks to work with in the offseason. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Bulls have an implied total of 101.5 points, which is the third lowest overall and two points below their season average.

If you look at the player table below, you will see nothing but yellow and red boxes in the three matchup columns. The Celtics are tough on every position and with Kyrie Irving out, they will now have elite individual defenders in their starting lineup. This is not a great spot for the Bulls as a whole. Kris Dunn has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and is slightly underpriced if you want to give him a look in tournaments. Zach LaVine is only $6,600 on DraftKings. While I hate the matchup, pricing dictates our decision making in DFS.

David Nwaba and Denzel Valentine have been two of my favorite value plays over the last two weeks, but the Celtics are ranked second in efficiency against shooting guards and third in efficiency against small forwards. The one play that I feel confident in from Chicago is Bobby Portis. He is going to draw the start at center and he should immediately push for 30+ minutes. Boston has been tough on opposing frontcourts, but Portis presents a difficult matchup for Al Horford and Aron Baynes.

Notable Injuries

Robin Lopez (Out)
Paul Zipser (Doubtful)
Justin Holiday (Questionable)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (12 of 14)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Bobby Portis (DK)

Secondary Plays – Bobby Portis (FD GPP), Kris Dunn (GPP), Zach LaVine (DK)

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies							San Antonio Spurs
			Vegas Total		202.5					Vegas Total		202.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		95.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.4					Pace Projection +/-		-2.7
Projected Starters	Kobi Simmons	Ben McLemore	Dillon Brooks	JaMychal Green	Marc Gasol		Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Patty Mills	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	2	3	5	1	7		DvP	17	23	9	13	1
DRPM Rat.	1	28	1	16	5		DRPM Rat.	21	16	17	28	11

Memphis Grizzlies

This is one of the ugliest games on the schedule for a number of reasons. These are the two slowest paced teams in the NBA and they are both ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game. To make matters worse, Memphis is playing short-handed and on the road. The spread is currently set at 11 points and we all know how little we can trust the Spurs in potential blowout situations. The Grizzlies have the lowest implied total on the board at only 95.8 points.

Memphis will be without their three point guards tonight, as Mario Chalmers, Andrew Harrison, and Mike Conley have all been ruled out. The Grizzlies will likely split point guard duties between Kobi Simmons, Ben McLemore, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes. This is an awful matchup, but I have some interest in Simmons and McLemore, especially if they are both in the starting lineup. We have to take a wait and see approach with the Grizzlies’ frontcourt, as Marc Gasol is listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, we can expect 30+ minutes from both JaMychal Green and Jarell Martin. If Gasol is active, I will be avoiding the Grizzlies’ bigs completely.

Notable Injuries

Andrew Harrison (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Out)
Mario Chalmers (Out)
Deyonta Davis (Out)
Marc Gasol (Questionable)
Jarell Martin (Probable)
Wayne Selden (Probable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.8 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (13 of 14)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kobi Simmons (GPP), Ben McLemore (GPP), JaMychal Green & Jarell Martin (FD – if Gasol is out)

Secondary Plays – Kobi Simmons (Cash), Ben McLemore (Cash), JaMychal Green & Jarell Martin (DK – if Gasol is out)

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have lost eight of their last ten games and are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture in the loaded Western Conference. They currently hold a one and a half game lead over the ninth place Clippers. Luckily, they should be able to right the ship tonight against the Grizzlies, who are basically playing with their Triple-A lineup. The Spurs have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate and four points above their season average.

The big concern for San Antonio isn’t the matchup, it’s the potential blowout. If Marc Gasol is unable to suit up, I have a hard time seeing the Grizzlies being competitive in this one. Predicting blowouts is always difficult, but Greg Popovich is not a coach that I trust in these situations. With that said, Patty Mills has averaged 32 minutes over his last five games and is still dirt cheap on DraftKings ($4,600). Rudy Gay has played well off the bench and is only $4,400 on FanDuel. If LaMarcus Aldridge is ruled out, Pau Gasol would see a significant boost in usage and fantasy production. I probably won’t trust any of the Spurs’ players in a cash game setting, but there are some intriguing tournament targets here.

Notable Injuries

LaMarcus Aldridge (Questionable)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (5 of 14)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Pau Gasol (if Aldridge is out)

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills (DK), Rudy Gay (FD)

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