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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-08 03:28:35

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Charlotte Hornets
indiananba Vegas Total 207.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 105.3
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 10 13 10 2 17 2016-17 16 20 29 21 11

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are a far cry from the defensive juggernaut that they were a couple of seasons ago. They have made an effort to push the tempo this season and it has shown on both ends of the floor. While they are ranked fifth in points scored per game, they have allowed the fourth most points per game. They come into tonight’s contest as 3.5-point underdogs against the Hornets in what should be a fairly uptempo game. The Pacers have an implied total of 101.8 points, which is a full eight points lower than their season average. The Hornets have been tough defensively this season, ranking sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. If you look at their DvP chart above, you can see that they are ranked 17th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions.

Even though this matchup isn’t ideal, we have an average-sized slate with seven games on the schedule. Jeff Teague may have the best individual matchup, as Kemba Walker has never been known as an elite defender. This may come as a surprise, but Teague leads the Pacers in true usage at 26.6%. He plays 30+ minutes per night and he is coming off of solid back-to-back fantasy outings. He is a sneaky tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Monta Ellis has taken a backseat in this offense, but is still averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game. My biggest issue here is that he will be defended by Nicolas Batum and/or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Paul George is fairly matchup-proof, although he has the same problem as Monta Ellis in that he draws a difficult matchup. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner are both averaging less than 30 minutes per game. Turner is the more appealing play of the two, but his fantasy production has dropped off in the last three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $6,100 $6,000 $10,400 0.88 30.8 -0.4 27.0 2.9 26.6% 0.4% 10
Monta Ellis $5,900 $5,400 $10,400 0.72 34.8 -0.1 25.2 2.0 17.2% -2.2% 13
Paul George $8,600 $7,900 $13,200 1.02 34.3 0.2 34.9 -0.1 25.7% 0.5% 10
Thaddeus Young $5,800 $5,600 $9,900 0.84 29.6 -2.6 25.0 -2.7 16.1% 0.5% 2
Myles Turner $6,700 $6,900 $11,300 1.19 28.2 -2.5 33.6 -8.4 22.1% -0.5% 17

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Paul George

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are 4-1 to start the season thanks to some stellar play on the defensive end of the floor. Their offense is ranked right around the league average in terms of points scored per game, but that’s more than enough when you are holding opponents to 95.8 points per game. The Hornets draw a terrific matchup tonight at home against the Pacers, who play at a fast pace and are ranked 28th in points allowed per game. The Hornets are 3.5-point favorites here with an implied total of 105.3 points. Their point projection is not only the fourth highest in the slate, but it’s 3.3 points above their season average. Roy Hibbert has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, but we need to keep an eye on Marvin Williams. He is listed as questionable with a viral infection. If he is unable to go, give a boost to Frank Kaminsky.

The Hornets typically aren’t a team that we get excited to target in DFS, but they are in a favorable game environment tonight. Kemba Walker has played well at home throughout his career and is averaging close to 35 fantasy points per game this season. He has a 31.8% true usage rate and he is priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is the wealth of options there are at point guard tonight. Nicolas Batum draws a favorable matchup against Monta Ellis and he’s one of the few players that doesn’t rely on points scored for his fantasy production. In fact, only 51.3% of his fantasy production comes from points scored. He is an elite play at shooting guard tonight. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been a bit too hit or miss for me and he draws a tough assignment in Paul George. If Marvin Williams is ruled out, Frank Kaminsky would become a borderline elite value play, while Spencer Hawes would also see a boost off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $7,800 $7,400 $11,300 1.04 33.4 0.2 34.9 0.4 31.5% 1.3% 16
Nicolas Batum $6,400 $6,500 $10,700 0.87 33.6 0.7 29.2 0.9 22.3% 0.3% 20
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,600 $5,400 $8,600 0.87 30.7 -0.6 26.6 -3.3 13.0% -3.2% 29
Marvin Williams $5,200 $5,000 $8,400 0.75 30.5 -0.5 22.9 -3.2 16.1% 1.5% 21
Cody Zeller $4,900 $4,400 $6,800 1.07 21.3 1.6 22.8 0.6 19.5% -1.8% 11
Frank Kaminsky $4,000 $4,300 $7,300 0.84 22.4 0 18.9 0.0 20.1% 0.0% 21
Spencer Hawes $3,700 $3,500 $7,400 0.92 19 1.7 17.5 -0.5 21.4% -1.6% 11

Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum, Kemba Walker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Frank Kaminsky

Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz Philadelphia 76ers
utahnba Vegas Total 192.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 92.3
Pace +/- 1.6 Pace +/- -6.5
Proj. Starter George Hill Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 28 8 22 17 16 2016-17 6 7 12 5 13

Utah Jazz

Editor’s Note: George Hill will not play tonight.

The Jazz picked up a big win in New York last night. While we thought the main story was going to be the return of Gordon Hayward, the real story was “”(player-popup)Rudy Gobert”:/players/rudy-gobert-16935 dunking on Kristaps Porzginis”:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qQMsS8cu70. He also swatted Porzingis a few possessions later. The Jazz are 4-3 to start the season and they will only get better with Hayward back in the lineup. In his season debut, Hayward played 28 actual points in 36 minutes. Eventually, I expect him to cut into the production of George Hill and Rodney Hood, but Joe Johnson appears to be the one most impacted by Hayward’s return. Even though they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, the Jazz are listed as 7.5-point favorites tonight against the Sixers. This is a favorable matchup any way you slice it, as the Sixers are ranked 11th in pace of play and 28th in fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Jazz have an implied total of 99.8 points, which is 2.8 points above their season average.

George Hill hurt his hand in last night’s game against the Knicks, but he was able to finish the game and is fully expected to play tonight. Even with Gordon Hayward back in the lineup, Hill played 35 minutes and scored 43 fantasy points. As long as his true usage stays above 22% or so, we can continue to fire up Hill in all league formats. Tonight he gets to face a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 28th against point guards. Hill is a borderline elite play even at the stacked point guard position. especially on Rosters where he is priced at only $9,400. Rodney Hood has played well this season, but I am a little worried about his role in the offense with Hayward back. I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach for now. Hayward wasn’t on a minutes-restriction last night, although he would be the first of the starters to sit if this game turned into a blowout. His price on DraftKings is appealing, but I see him more as a GPP play. The matchup of the night is Rudy Gobert against Joel Embiid. It pains me to say it, but I’m on the Embiid side of the matchup given their respective price points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
George Hill $6,000 $6,500 $9,400 0.98 33.8 -1.2 33.0 -0.2 24.3% 0.6% 28
Rodney Hood $5,400 $5,900 $9,300 0.83 32.6 -0.3 27.0 4.8 23.0% 1.2% 8
Gordon Hayward $7,300 $6,700 $13,300 0.87 35.6 0 31.0 0.0 32.2% 0.0% 22
Derrick Favors $5,900 $5,600 $11,100 0.84 22.6 3.1 19.0 -3.4 23.0% -1.8% 17
Rudy Gobert $6,700 $6,900 $11,200 0.90 31.1 -2.5 27.9 -0.3 14.8% -0.7% 16
Joe Johnson $4,500 $4,800 $8,700 0.79 28.9 -2 22.7 -1.5 19.5% -0.7% 22
Trey Lyles $3,700 $3,400 $7,200 0.62 22.3 1.9 13.8 -1.0 19.0% -6.1% 17

Elite Plays – George Hill

Secondary Plays – Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward (GPP), Rudy Gobert

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers and Pelicans are the only two teams left standing without a win. The strange part is that they have been two of the must-see teams in DFS thanks to Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. Despite the incredible play of Embiid, the Sixers are still ranked dead last in points per game at 92.8. It’s tough to win games when you are allowing your opponents to score over 104 points per game. The Sixers come into tonight’s contest as 7.5-point underdogs at home against a stingy Jazz team. On the season, Utah is ranked dead last in pace of play. This has led to the Jazz being ranked inside the top five in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game.

While the matchup looks awful on paper, there are two Sixers that are playable tonight in DFS. Sergio Rodriguez has taken over as the Sixers’ top point guard with Jerryd Bayless out. What was once a timeshare now looks like Rodriguez’s backcourt. He is averaging over 30 minutes and over 27 fantasy points per game. His price is still cheap across the industry, largely because people get nervous about rostering anyone from the Sixers. Joel Embiid is arguably a top five player in the NBA right now. Despite being on a 24-minute limit each game, he is averaging 31 fantasy points per game (1.41 FP/min). He has an elite true usage of 36.5% and he has been getting it done on both ends of the floor. I have a hard-fast rule to never play centers against Rudy Gobert, but rules are meant to be broken. Embiid is way too cheap on FanDuel and he’s a borderline elite play on DraftKings as well. Regardless of how the game plays out, he should see 24 minutes on the button.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sergio Rodriguez $5,200 $5,300 $8,600 0.90 30.1 -0.3 27.2 0.0 24.6% 0.2% 6
Gerald Henderson $4,000 $3,400 $9,000 0.62 24.5 2.2 15.1 4.8 17.3% 2.9% 7
Robert Covington $4,400 $4,200 $9,500 0.57 27.7 0.2 15.9 0.5 14.5% 1.1% 12
Dario Saric $4,000 $4,400 $9,200 0.68 26.4 -0.3 17.9 3.3 21.2% 0.1% 5
Joel Embiid $5,000 $5,700 $9,100 1.41 22 3.1 31.0 6.3 36.5% -2.5% 13
Ersan Ilyasova $3,800 $4,300 $8,400 0.75 22.7 3 17.0 5.7 17.5% 5.0% 5

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Sergio Rodriguez, Dario Saric (GPP), Ersan Ilyasova (GPP)

Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Washington Wizards
houstonnba Vegas Total 216.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 107.3 Team Total 108.8
Pace +/- -1.7 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 1 24 20 13 26 2016-17 10 22 15 27 9

Houston Rockets

The Rockets and Wizards have been two of the top teams to targets players against this season. Tonight they get to square off in a game that features a spread of only 1.5 points. To say that this is a favorable game environment for fantasy production is an understatement. As expected, the Rockets have slowly been climbing the pace rankings and I eventually expect them to be inside the top ten if not the top five in tempo. Their offense has been tremendous this season, but they have allowed 108.2 points per game. Houston comes into tonight’s game as a 1.5-point underdog with an implied total of 107.3 points. The matchup is so good for both teams that we can realistically stack this game in both cash games and tournaments.

The Rockets go as James Harden goes. He has a true usage rate of 39%, which trails only Russell Westbrook this season. He is playing all of the minutes that he can handle and he is putting up monster stat lines. I play in a rec league on Monday nights and I would absolutely kill to have a game with 31 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds – let alone average that over the course of a season. Even with Westbrook and Anthony Davis in tonight’s slate, Harden is my favorite play on the board. Corey Brewer will slide into the starting lineup tonight, moving Eric Gordon to the bench. The Rockets want to start Brewer on John Wall. I’m not sure how many minutes Brewer will see, but if he’s playing well, he will obviously see more than the 15.3 minutes he has been averaging. At minimum salary, he’s certainly worth a look. Ryan Anderson actually benefits the most from the starting lineup change, as he is now the de facto number two option on offense. I don’t expect many people to be on him tonight, but I will have a ton of shared in tournaments. I’d love to use Clint Capela in DFS, but he’s not seeing enough minutes to make him a viable play at his price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
James Harden $11,800 $11,700 $15,300 1.55 36.8 -0.5 57.0 7.3 39.0% -0.9% 1
Corey Brewer $3,500 $3,000 $7,000 0.63 15.2 1.6 9.6 2.2 15.1% 0.6% 24
Trevor Ariza $4,900 $5,200 $9,300 0.69 32.4 -1.5 22.3 -2.7 14.8% 1.4% 20
Ryan Anderson $5,000 $5,300 $9,500 0.64 30.3 0 19.5 -1.0 17.8% 2.5% 13
Clint Capela $4,400 $5,200 $9,200 0.90 23 -2.8 20.7 -1.8 17.3% 2.4% 26
Eric Gordon $5,100 $5,400 $9,400 0.75 32.1 -1.3 23.9 -0.8 21.8% -0.6% 24

Elite Plays – James Harden, Ryan Anderson (GPP), Corey Brewer

Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have not played up to the level that they are capable of. They are 1-4 to start the season with a point differential of -6.6. It has to be frustrating for Wizards’ fans to know that this same make-up was able to be a top four or five seed in the East a couple of years ago. While I have my concerns about their ability to compete for a playoff spot, I don’t have my concerns about their matchup tonight. The Rockets are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Wizards have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 11.6 points above their season average. If there was ever a night to stack the Wizards, this would be it.

John Wall may draw the defense of Corey Brewer tonight, but I’m not concerned. There is a chance that most of this game will be played in transition, which is where Wall is at his best. He is having an outstanding season thus far, averaging 34.2 minutes and 44.8 fantasy points per game. Most of my lineups tonight are going to start with the pairing of James Harden and Wall. Coach Scott Brooks continues to say that a breakout game from Bradley Beal is coming. This is certainly a good spot for it to happen. With Brewer on Wall, there is a chance that Beal could see a lot of Harden. The other option would be to stick Trevor Ariza on Beal, which would leave Harden on Otto Porter. Regardless of how the matchup actually works out, Wall, Beal, and Porter are all viable options. Markieff Morris has really benefitted from his new role. While he is still in the starting lineup, Brooks has changed his substitution pattern to give Morris more minutes with the second unit. I’m all aboard the Morris train tonight. Marcin Gortat also makes a strong play at center. Despite talk of reducing his minutes, he has played at least 31 in every game this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $9,200 $8,800 $12,800 1.30 34.3 0.8 44.8 4.5 36.9% 0.8% 10
Bradley Beal $5,400 $5,600 $10,300 0.70 34.9 2.1 24.3 2.8 23.8% 0.3% 22
Otto Porter $4,900 $5,300 $8,400 0.70 33.4 1.7 23.3 1.4 14.7% -1.3% 15
Markieff Morris $5,800 $5,900 $9,100 0.83 34.1 1.6 28.3 -0.7 20.8% -0.3% 27
Marcin Gortat $5,900 $6,200 $9,300 0.80 36.1 0.8 28.9 2.7 13.5% 1.6% 9

Elite Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Oklahoma City Thunder
miaminba Vegas Total 202.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 98.8 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- 4.3 Pace +/- -2.1
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Justise Winslow Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 24 3 25 20 3 2016-17 2 10 7 9 18

Miami Heat

In the preseason, Erik Spoelstra had us excited about the possibility of this being an uptempo basketball team. Whether that was just coach speak or whether he decided to employ a different strategy, so far it hasn’t been the case. Miami is ranked 22nd in pace of play and 23rd in points scored per game. They draw a pace-up matchup tonight against the Thunder, but this isn’t exactly an ideal spot for fantasy production. Despite the quick tempo, the Thunder are ranked ninth in points allowed per game, fourth in defensive efficiency, and third in rebounding differential this season. The Heat have an implied total of only 98.8 points, which is the fourth lowest in the slate.

Goran Dragic is having a solid season thus far, averaging close to 35 minutes and fantasy points per game. He is coming off of a solid three-game stretch and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. While Russell Westbrook fills the stat sheet with steals and blocks, he isn’t technically a great defender. The Thunder are ranked 24th against point guards this season. The one concern with Dragic is foul trouble, but there is a chance that the Heat put someone else on Westbrook defensively. With all of the options at shooting guard, I see Dragic as more of a deep tournament play. Dion Waiters has been a nice value this season, but Josh Richardson return is going to cut into his role. For now, I will be avoiding both until we know how the minutes are going to be distributed. I’d rather take a shot on Tyler Johnson, who has been on fire to start the season. Justise Winslow remains a high-floor cash game option at small forward. I’ve heard a lot of buzz around Hassan Whiteside tonight, but I haven’t made a habit of targeting centers against Steven Adams. He is one of the best low post defenders in the NBA. My other concern is that Russell Westbrook attacks the rim more than anyone in the NBA. Whiteside could easily get into foul trouble. If Whiteside burns me tonight, so be it, but I will be fading him in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Goran Dragic $7,100 $7,000 $10,800 1.01 34.8 2.4 35.1 3.6 27.5% -1.0% 24
Dion Waiters $4,600 $4,600 $8,300 0.64 33.4 -0.2 21.5 -1.1 23.0% -0.8% 3
Justise Winslow $5,000 $5,600 $8,200 0.73 36.9 2.6 27.0 -0.4 23.3% -1.2% 25
Luke Babbitt $3,600 $3,200 $7,000 0.54 22.9 2.4 12.4 0.9 13.8% -1.4% 20
Hassan Whiteside $8,500 $8,600 $13,200 1.35 31.6 1.8 42.5 1.1 26.6% -0.2% 3
Tyler Johnson $4,900 $4,700 $7,400 0.89 29.9 0.9 26.6 1.8 19.9% 0.3% 24

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Justise Winslow, Tyler Johnson (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder bounced back nicely after getting throttled against the Warriors in Oakland. They are 5-1 to start the season and while it may seem like they are over-achieving, I see them competing for home-court advantage in this difficult Western Conference. When your leader brings his best night in and night out, it’s hard for the role players not to follow suit. The Thunder are listed as 5-point favorites tonight against the Heat in what will be a pace-down game for Oklahoma City. They still have the fifth highest implied total in the slate, but I’m not expecting this to turn into a 115-110 type of shootout like I expect from the Rockets/Wizards game.

It’s fitting that I always start by breaking down the point guard, because there is no other possible player to start with on the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is having the career season that we all expected once we found out Kevin Durant was leaving town. Westbrook is averaging 33 points, nine rebounds, and ten assists per game this season. He has yet to have an outing with fewer than 48 fantasy points on DraftKings. While James Harden is option 1A tonight, Westbrook is a close 1B. The edge goes to Harden thanks to a better game environment, but we can always find a way to get both into our lineups (it’s easier on FanDuel than DraftKings). There will be a good spot to buy low on Victor Oladipo soon, but tonight is not the night. Domantas Sabonis has seen a nice uptick in minutes and fantasy production in his last three games and could be an intriguing punt under $4,000. Steven Adams has had some monster fantasy outings this season and makes for a nice GPP play. Dollar for dollar, he is my preferred center to target in this game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Russell Westbrook $11,700 $12,200 $15,700 1.68 34.2 -4.2 57.6 -11.1 46.4% -0.1% 2
Victor Oladipo $5,600 $5,900 $10,700 0.67 33.6 -2.5 22.5 -2.8 21.4% -5.0% 10
Andre Roberson $3,700 $3,800 $7,000 0.60 28.1 -5.8 16.8 -8.2 10.0% 3.0% 7
Domantas Sabonis $3,900 $3,600 $8,900 0.79 18.1 4.5 14.3 5.9 15.2% 1.5% 9
Steven Adams $5,200 $5,700 $9,400 0.83 31.4 -3.6 26.1 -2.2 15.9% -3.4% 18
Jerami Grant $3,900 $3,700 $6,000 0.63 20.8 0.1 13.2 -1.1 18.0% -2.8% 7
Enes Kanter $4,800 $4,900 $9,300 1.11 17.7 -1.8 19.6 -0.9 26.1% 1.9% 9

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams (GPP), Domantas Sabonis

Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Chicago Bulls
orlandonba Vegas Total 201.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 97.8 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- -3.6
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 18 9 24 21 14 2016-17 16 6 12 15 30

Orlando Magic

The Magic have a lot of young talent on their roster, but they have been inconsistent on a nightly basis. Typically, younger teams play with a quicker tempo, but Orlando is ranked 26th in pace of play and 29th in points scored per game. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and first in rebounding differential. The Magic have an implied total of only 97.8 points, which is the second lowest in the slate. This is a tough spot to try to predict fantasy production because I see scenarios where the Magic could win or where they could lose by 20 in this spot.

Elfrid Payton put up the ultimate dud in a favorable matchup against the Wizards on Saturday. He finished with 9.7 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action. He was a fairly popular play that night, which should help lower his ownership tonight against the Bulls. I always love targeting point guards against Rajon Rondo and this is a game where Payton should be able to get into the lane often. He is a great bounce-back candidate tonight. Evan Fournier leads the team in minutes per game (34.6) and is second in true usage (24.7%). He should match up against Dwyane Wade, who is far from an elite defender at this stage of his career. Aaron Gordon is an easy fade for me in a difficult matchup against Jimmy Butler. Nikola Vucevic is currently listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. If he is unable to play, Bismack Biyombo would immediately step in as an elite value play in all league formats. If Vucevic is active, I will likely be avoiding the Orlando’s frontcourt altogether.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Elfrid Payton $5,800 $6,100 $9,800 0.79 33.3 0.1 26.3 -1.3 24.9% 0.3% 18
Evan Fournier $5,800 $5,900 $9,600 0.74 34.6 -0.1 25.7 -0.5 24.7% -0.1% 9
Aaron Gordon $5,800 $5,700 $9,200 0.87 29.4 -0.5 25.6 -1.0 19.3% -1.4% 24
Serge Ibaka $5,400 $5,500 $10,300 0.77 28.7 -0.1 22.2 1.7 20.4% 0.1% 21
Nikola Vucevic $7,200 $6,300 $10,500 1.09 28.8 0 31.3 1.0 23.5% -0.6% 14

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Bismack Biyombo (if Nikola Vucevic is out)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Evan Fournier

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls got off to a hot start this season and then right when I started to say that we were wrong in our predictions, they go and lose three straight. At this point, I’m not sure what to expect from Chicago moving forward. Their offense certainly hasn’t been the problem, as they are ranked ninth in points scored per game despite being the eighth slowest-paced team in the NBA. This game projects to be the slowest paced game on the schedule, as both teams are ranked in the bottom eight in pace of play. The Bulls have an implied total of 103.8 points though, so Vegas doesn’t seem overly concerned about the tempo.

The Bulls are a tough team to break down because they have been involved in a number of blowouts. If you look at the table below, you will see that no player is averaging over 33 minutes per game, while seven players are averaging at least 23 minutes per game. Ideally, we like targeting players that we can count on to play 35 minutes a night. Rajon Rondo is still overpriced given his recent production and point guard is too deep to give him serious consideration tonight. Dwyane Wade has been productive on a per-minute basis, but he isn’t going to play more than 30-32 minutes even in a close game. Jimmy Butler has the most fantasy appeal here. He has 35+ minute upside and a decent matchup against Aaron Gordon. Taj Gibson continues to be a safe cash game option, but his price is getting a little high for my liking. If I’m targeting a Bulls’ power forward, I would rather go with Nikola Mirotic. He is playing similar minutes to Gibson and has more upside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Rajon Rondo $6,200 $6,100 $10,400 0.80 29.3 1.4 23.4 -1.9 23.8% -0.2% 16
Dwyane Wade $6,700 $6,000 $10,600 0.95 28.7 1.4 27.3 -1.7 27.3% -1.2% 6
Jimmy Butler $7,500 $7,200 $12,400 0.96 32.4 2.5 31.0 -2.6 25.7% 1.0% 12
Taj Gibson $5,600 $5,700 $8,700 1.00 26.4 0.6 26.4 -1.4 20.6% -0.9% 15
Robin Lopez $4,600 $4,000 $9,400 0.87 22.6 0.7 19.6 -0.9 16.9% -0.6% 30
Nikola Mirotic $4,900 $5,100 $8,300 0.83 24.9 -1.7 20.8 -4.5 21.5% -1.8% 15
Doug McDermott $3,900 $3,600 $6,900 0.74 23.9 -0.4 17.8 -3.9 18.5% -4.6% 12

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade (DK), Taj Gibson (Cash), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious