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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 8th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-09 04:52:58

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets – 5:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Brooklyn Nets
chicagonba Vegas Total 216.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- 4.7 Pace +/- -1.3
Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 29 24 30 23 26 Adj. DvP 22 13 17 19 4
DRPM -0.22 -1.39 -1.54 1.29 0.31 DRPM 0.47 -0.56 1.90 1.09 0.01

Chicago Bulls

Chicago is in a must-win situation tonight; they’re in a three-way battle with the Pacers and the Heat for the final two spots in the playoffs. That’s always great to see this time of year. It’s also nice knowing they get the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Dwyane Wade is a game-time decision, but it seems like he’ll play for the first time since March 15th. This might be good news for the Bulls, it’s bad for Jimmy Butler’s fantasy production. When Wade is on the court and Rajon Rondo – who’s not expected to play – is off, Butler’s usage drops 4.8% to 23.5% while Wade leads the team at 33.9%. Even worse, when Jerian Grant, who’s expected to start tonight, is also on the floor, Butler’s usage drops to 22.0% and is per-minute fantasy production drops tremendously (-0.14 to 0.99 FD ppm; -0.16 to 1.02 DK ppm). Of course, his price is way up there now, and it may be prohibitive if we expect Wade to play, especially if Wade won’t be limited. If Wade is ultimately ruled out, we get Jimmy Butler against the Nets without Wade/Rondo in a must-win game; that’s something everyone can enjoy, even at his exorbitant salary. It’s worth monitoring not only whether Wade plays, but whether he’ll have some type of minutes restriction.

Jerian Grant popped off 15 points, eight rebounds, and five assists against Philly on Thursday; that’s probably his ceiling. He’s not very consistent, so he’s a better tournament option. He also takes a hit with Wade on the floor. Nikola Mirotic has been killing it, but he’s shot an unsustainable 55% of better from three in six of his past eight games. His price has been steadily rising as a result, and it might be time to sell high if you’ve been using him, but we know he has upside for tournaments in a favoravle matchup like this. Fellow big man, Robin Lopez, actually plays slightly better with the Grant/Wade/Butler combo; his usage goes up 1.5% and his per-minute fantasy production slightly increases. He’s been playing solid minutes lately as well, making him a potential value option. Chicago will probably keep their rotation tight, so their bench isn’t a great place to look. Bobby Portis has come in plenty of times and produced with little time on the floor, but he’s usually around the 20-minute mark and that’s pretty limiting.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,800 $4,100 0.70 15.8 -2.3 11.1 2.9 17.7% 0.4% 29 -0.22
Dwyane Wade $6,600 $5,500 1.06 30.2 32.1 30.7% 24 -1.39
Jimmy Butler $10,500 $10,500 1.14 37.1 2.2 42.1 4.7 28.6% 0.9% 30 -1.54
Nikola Mirotic $5,800 $6,300 0.86 23.9 5.4 20.6 10.2 19.4% 0.8% 23 1.29
Robin Lopez $4,800 $5,100 0.77 28.1 4.5 21.7 -1.9 17.2% -0.1% 26 0.31
Bobby Portis $3,800 $4,000 0.85 15.4 4.8 13.1 5.6 19.0% -0.5% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (if Wade out, or limited)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (if Wade in), Jerian Grant (GPP), Nikola Mirotic (GPP), Robin Lopez (GPP)

Brooklyn Nets

Ah, the Nets. The team with the most annoying rotations in the league. No players flirt with the 30-minute mark besides Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez and they play 10-12 guys a game. Sean Kilpatrick missed last game with a hamstring injury and he has a good chance of being held out again. When he’s been off the floor the past two weeks, Jeremy Lin’s usage increases 1.3% and he leads the team in fpts per minute (1.19 FD; 1.29 DK). Lopez has gone down in both categories (-0.7% usage; -0.06 FD ppm to 1.13; -0.06 DK ppm to 1.21). He’s had a couple of bad games to follow up two big ones, but his priced has dropped below $7,000 the last time he played his brother’s team, he dropped 33 points. Although Lin has been taking more shots recently, Lopez usually leads in FGA and he remains the team’s top scorer. He’s got nice upside at this price.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson average’s 0.95 FD ppm and a solid 1.0 FD ppm when Kilpatrick is off the floor. The problem is he only plays around 25 minutes a night, sometimes a little less. It’s pretty annoying. Still, he’s got a low salary and Chicago ranks 19th in DvP against power forwards. If Kilpatrick sits out, it would open up time for Archie Goodwin and Isaiah Whitehead, but not enough to make them worthwhile.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $6,300 $6,700 1.10 24.1 4.9 26.6 5.4 28.9% -1.3% 22 0.47
Randy Foye $3,500 $3,000 0.59 18.7 -4.0 11.1 -1.8 15.9% -3.1% 13 -0.56
Caris LeVert $4,100 $3,900 0.73 21.5 0.4 15.6 4.3 16.6% 1.8% 17 1.90
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,700 $4,800 0.89 22.2 3.3 19.7 0.4 18.8% -1.8% 19 1.09
Brook Lopez $6,800 $6,900 1.10 29.5 -0.7 32.6 0.3 28.2% 0.0% 4 0.01

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lin

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets – 6:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Charlotte Hornets
bostonnba Vegas Total 214.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 107.5 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- -0.7 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 22 19 18 14 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -0.93 -0.27 2.27 -0.07 3.22 DRPM -4.17 -1.17 1.18 3.96 1.66

Boston Celtics

Man, the Celtics were looking great. They climbed to the top of the standings to challenge the Cleveland for the top seed, got to play them at home, and got totally embarrassed by LeBron. They followed it up with a loss in Atlanta, so now they look destined for the two-seed. However, they’re not done yet, ESPN’s 538 gives them a 21% chance of getting that spot. Fortunately, that means we can expect them to go all out tonight against a Charlotte team that essentially has nothing to play for – they’re all but eliminated from the playoffs (<1% chance according to 538). That’s pretty important here, because Charlotte doesn’t seem to care anymore. Over their last two games their defensive rating has plummeted to 120.9, the second-worst rate in the thing (how does anyone have a worse rating than that?)

They’ve given up nice stat lines to point guards in that stretch; John Wall dropped 23 points, 13 assists, and added six steals and Goran Dragic scored 33 on them. Isaiah Thomas should come out firing tonight. Charlotte has allowed an opponent EFG of 60.7% the past two times out and they have a friendly DvP ranking against point guards. As you’ll notice, they aren’t great against shooting guards either. Rest is coming for Avery Bradley if they end up out of contention for the number one seed, but he should go hard tonight. He’s had a poor couple of weeks, which included three inactives, but his price has fallen to $6k. He’s capable of beating that, especially if he takes 19 shots again as he did last game. Unfortunately, he was super cold (1-of-8 from three) and didn’t really get in a rhythm. It’s also worrisome that his peripherals have been down since he returned from an injury after the break. This would be a good spot for him to bounce back. Marcus Smart is coming off a monster game, but he was aided by extra minutes off the bench when Thomas was temporarily sidelined. Plus, he had a ridiculous six steals and two blocks. He’s not worth going back to at this price. Jae Crowder and Al Horford both have tough individual matchups tonight. Cody Zeller is the 7th-highest rated center in DRPM (3.22) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is 7th among small forwards (2.10). Although Crowder’s usage has been up and Bradley’s down over the past two weeks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see that switched up tonight. Thomas and Bradley should be able to carve up Charlotte’s less-motivated defense.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,600 $8,100 1.20 34.0 -1.1 40.7 1.6 34.8% 0.3% 19 -0.93
Avery Bradley $6,000 $6,000 0.85 33.4 1.5 28.4 -4.7 21.9% -1.5% 22 -0.27
Jae Crowder $5,900 $5,800 0.78 32.4 0.3 25.4 -3.2 16.9% 2.6% 19 2.27
Amir Johnson $3,800 $3,800 0.81 20.2 -0.8 16.4 -1.1 14.2% -1.6% 18 -0.07
Al Horford $6,600 $6,000 0.99 32.4 -2.2 32.0 -8.3 21.5% -2.1% 14 3.22
Marcus Smart $6,000 $5,300 0.79 30.4 -1.2 24.0 3.1 20.8% 1.4% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley

Charlotte Hornets

As mentioned above, the Hornets have pretty much been eliminated, they’ve lost two straight, and they don’t seem to care all that much on defense. They do have the 8th-best offensive rating (112.8) during these last two games though.

Kemba Walker was on fire for three straight nights last week before putting up a dud on Miami. He plays the league’s worst defender, Isaiah Thomas, tonight though and he’s under $8k. Very nice. Nicolas Batum picked up the slack, scoring 24 points while dishing seven assists (he’s been turning in a ton of assists lately). He’s under $7k, Avery Bradley has a friendly DRPM, his usage has ticked up a bit over the last month, let’s go for it. Mr. Cody Zeller has double-double upside whenever he gets 30 minutes and he’s been getting 30 minutes. His rebounding is up and down, the key is finding the right spots for him. Although Boston had been trending upward in that category over the past few months, they’re bad again. In fact, they have the eighth-worst team in rebounding percentage (48.3) over the past five games. Oh, and they gave up the eight-most points in the paint per game during that stretch (47.2). Do you really need more plays from this game? Alright, fine. Marvin Williams plays more minutes than Zeller and will also benefit from those stats. He’s a bit pricier though. We’ll also have to include Frank Kaminsky in there, but he’s not getting the same type of playing time as these two and he costs more than Zeller.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,700 $7,800 1.06 34.7 1.5 36.7 1.7 30.5% 3.4% 18 -4.17
Nicolas Batum $6,400 $6,900 0.94 34.3 -1.9 32.2 -0.3 24.1% -1.3% 11 -1.17
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,400 $4,600 0.79 29.2 1.0 23.0 -2.0 14.2% -1.2% 13 1.18
Marvin Williams $6,100 $6,100 0.78 30.5 1.6 23.7 1.8 15.8% -2.8% 24 3.96
Cody Zeller $4,800 $4,600 0.84 27.9 1.5 23.5 -1.7 15.7% -2.0% 21 1.66
Frank Kaminsky $5,100 $5,000 0.84 26.1 -1.9 22.0 -0.5 21.5% 0.4% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller

Secondary Plays – Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic – 6:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Orlando Magic
indiananba Vegas Total 210.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 107.5 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -0.5
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 21 15 28 23 Adj. DvP 12 10 27 14 22
DRPM -0.47 -0.83 -1.28 -0.63 1.93 DRPM -0.16 -1.82 0.04 2.04 2.20

Indiana Pacers

How can you not love playoff-mode Paul George? The dude has been killing the game. Over his past twelve, he’s averaged 29.1 real life points, 45.8 FD points and 49.7 DK points. He wants to make the playoffs and Indiana is currently in. They’re in control of their own destiny here and he knows it. Of course, the dang algorithms at DFS sites figured that out too and his price is through the roof. Stupid computers always ruining our fun.

On the bright side, Indiana plays Orland tonight, one of the league’s worst teams. Orlando has won one of their last six games and during that stretch they’ve allowed the fourth-worst EFG% (56.1) and they have the sixth-worst defensive rating (113.1). Paul George must be licking his chops. He’ll play heavy minutes as long as it’s close, which makes him a great play tonight despite the high salary.

Another guy on the rise is Thaddeus Young. He’s been crushing it the past five games, it’s like a switch went on inside him that suddenly allowed him to rebound everything. He’s averaged 10.4 per game to go along with 14.8 points. And these weren’t against cupcakes either; matchups included Memphis, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Toronto twice. His price is up but it’s still $5k or less. His minutes are way up and that should continue given his recent play and the team’s situation. Their center, Myles Turner, has been struggling; as Young and his rebounds trend upward, Turner is doing the opposite. He’s a very talented player with a lot of potential, but he’s pretty frustrating on most nights and we can get Young for less. Jeff Teague has been consistent enough to be a nice cash target in this matchup, but his salary is a bit high for tournament upside.

WARNING: It should be stated that all of these guys will sit really quickly if Indiana gets up big. As of this writing a line wasn’t available.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $6,900 $6,700 1.00 32.4 0.0 32.4 -4.7 26.3% -2.1% 27 -0.47
Monta Ellis $4,500 $4,400 0.67 27.1 2.5 18.2 -0.7 18.5% -2.4% 21 -0.83
Paul George $9,600 $9,300 1.04 35.7 3.9 37.2 11.4 28.4% 2.0% 15 -1.28
Thaddeus Young $4,900 $5,000 0.76 30.1 1.5 23.0 8.1 16.1% 2.6% 28 -0.63
Myles Turner $6,100 $5,700 0.94 31.4 3.8 29.6 -8.8 18.5% -6.4% 23 1.93

Elite Plays – Paul George, Thaddeus Young, Jeff Teague (cash)

Secondary Plays – None

Orlando Magic

Orlando. They’re magically bad. Their front office is one of the worst in the league and they recently released a photo that displayed their desire to trade Aaron Gordon for Dario Saric by accident. Nice. But hey, they’re playing most of their starters 30+ minutes a night in a lost season, so we can’t complain too much, right?

Speaking of Gordon, he’s been playing out of his mind lately. He turned in two monster double doubles last week, and after a poor performance in Cleveland, followed up with 21 points and six rebounds on Thursday. Over these past four games, his usage is up 3.7% and his per-minute fantasy production has skyrocketed 0.37 FD ppm to 1.17 and 0.4 DK ppm to 1.24. The matchup is certainly tougher than Brooklyn (a team he played twice in the last four, inflating his numbers a bit), and we know how hard the Pacers will play. Still, we should be thankful for that picture the Magic unceremoniously released, because he has a chip on his shoulder. It’s always good to get some type of narrative this time of year, especially for non-contenders, so no reason to not take another shot on Gordon while he’s hot.

Evan Fournier is back after a one-game absence due to a wrist injury. He’s a consistent player, but he rarely breaks out for a “big one” and with Gordon and Elfrid Payton playing so well recently, he’s not an exciting tournament choice. He has a reasonably safe floor for cash games. As for Payton, I never want to accuse someone of taking PEDS…but what is this guy on? All of a sudden he turned into a triple-double guy, racking up five triple-doubles since the beginning of March. The potential has been there for this type of production since his rookie season and it’s great to see him finally turn it on. Jeff Teague is a below-average defender and Indiana is one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball. That puts Payton on triple-double alert. While the rebounding should be there for center Nikola Vucevic, and he’s been in good form, Indiana has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the paint this year (39.9). Although their DvP is friendly, we can see that Myles Turner has a nice DRPM, and Vucevic has a high salary that warrants some caution. If you’re interested in a headache, take a look at Terrence Ross. His salary stays low enough to be worth considering every game but his minutes can be sporadic and so can his shooting. Considering he’s a scoring-dependent player, well, have some Tylenol ready if you roster him. Too bad his salary isn’t higher so we could just write him off completely.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,600 $7,800 0.99 29.4 3.1 29.0 10.0 25.4% 0.3% 12 -0.16
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,600 0.77 33.0 2.4 25.3 3.1 23.9% 1.5% 10 -1.82
Terrence Ross $4,300 $4,900 0.72 25.1 9.6 18.0 2.8 18.3% -1.5% 27 0.04
Aaron Gordon $6,300 $6,600 0.80 28.5 6.9 22.9 15.4 20.0% 2.7% 14 2.04
Nikola Vucevic $8,200 $7,500 1.17 28.9 1.2 33.8 -0.2 25.4% -1.1% 22 2.20

Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier (cash), Terrence Ross (if medicine readily available)

Miami Heat at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Washington Wizards
miaminba Vegas Total 214.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Josh Richardson James Johnson Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 17 16 22 20 Adj. DvP 4 1 9 6 8
DRPM -0.57 -0.70 0.22 1.55 1.26 DRPM -1.62 -0.83 -0.20 1.40 2.33

Miami Heat

Miami has to win and that’s great news for us. They’re currently in 9th place, one game back from the Bulls and Pacers. Luke Babbitt has missed the last two games, which has provided James Johnson with a pair of productive starts. Johnson has become one of the more exciting guys to roster in tournaments. His price didn’t rise after putting up a 22-point, 10-rebound double-double on the Raptors last night and if Babbitt is out again, he’s a great target. Coach Erik Spoelstra seems to be in love with Johsnon, probably because Johnson has responded well to Spoelstra’s strict conditioning regimen and it’s really shown on the court. He played 38 minutes last night and it wouldn’t be shocking for him to be in the mid-30s tonight, even if Babbitt plays because Babbitt mainly provides defense (he has a negative ORPM), but James Johnson produces on both ends of the court (positive ORPM and DRPM) – he’s in the top 50 league-wide in overall real plus-minus (2.28).

Over the past three months when Babbitt is off the court and Johnson, Goran Dragic, and Hassan Whiteside are on, Josh Richardson has enjoyed a 2% usage bump. He hasn’t turned that into an upgraded fpts per-minute rate, but it certainly raises his upside. Since joining the starting five on March 12th, he’s produced 22 or more DK points in all but one of those 10 games, he’s crossed 25 DK points six times in the past seven games, and 30 DK points three times in the past five. His production is on the rise and his salary is low enough on DK to make him an interesting tournament target against a favorable opponent. He’s cheaper on FanDuel, though, and he’s hit the 24-point mark six times in the past seven games. Fellow guard, Goran Dragic has a lower usage rate when he shares the court with Johnson and Whiteside but he still managed to score 33 against Charlotte a couple of games ago. His salary is too high on FanDuel, but he’s a nice option on DraftKings in this situation. He’s all but guaranteed to play in the mid-30s tonight. Hassan Whiteside, on the other hand, isn’t locked in to those types of minutes. His hand is clearly bothering him, which has affected his scoring and rebounding over the past six games, although his rebounding seems to be back. With this injury, he seems to risky to roster for his price on FanDuel, but, like Gragic, he’s in play on DraftKings where he’s $800 cheaper. Still with his upside capped, it hurts his tournament value and his injury and recent minutes reduction makes him a little riskier than we’d like for cash games. Backup guard Tyler Johnson isn’t getting a ton of minutes either as the Heat tighten their rotation in their final push for the playoffs, diminishing his value.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,900 $7,300 $13,700 1.00 33.5 0.7 33.6 3.8 29.3% 1.2% 9 -0.57
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,500 $7,000 0.55 25.4 2.1 13.9 4.0 12.7% 2.6% 17 -0.70
Josh Richardson $4,900 $5,700 $11,200 0.67 29.8 4.3 19.8 6.4 18.0% -0.7% 16 0.22
James Johnson $6,400 $6,600 $12,300 0.95 26.9 2.8 25.6 2.4 23.7% -0.4% 22 1.55
Hassan Whiteside $8,500 $7,700 $14,300 1.17 32.6 -1.3 38.3 -2.2 21.1% -2.3% 20 1.26
Tyler Johnson $5,500 $5,000 $9,800 0.86 29.9 -1.6 25.7 -6.2 22.2% -0.4% 9 N/A
James Johnson $6,400 $6,600 $12,300 0.95 26.9 2.8 25.6 2.4 23.7% -0.4% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – James Johnson

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson, Goran Dragic (DK), Hassan Whiteside (DK)

Washington Wizards

Miami isn’t a good matchup for anyone; they’re fifth In fantasy points allowed and rank in the top ten in DvP rankings across the board. Washington is playing for seeding right now, they’ll be tied for the third seed if they win, so we should expect them to.

Markieff Morris (ankle) has missed the last game. His replacement, gave us great value off the bench the night prior, picking up 17 points and five rebounds, but he totally flopped in his start against a Porzingis-less Knicks squad. He played less than 25 minutes in both games as the Wizards played small. He could be in line for a similar workload tonight. Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat continue to see reduced minutes as the Wizards work In Bojan Bogdanovic, Kelly Oubre, Branding Jennings, and Ian Mahinmi for decent minutes every night. Oubre has been the most consistent of the bunch, often reaching 24-26 minutes of action. Oubre is in play has a value option, he’s been consistent, but he’s demonstrated a limited upside. Bojan is the complete opposite and his minutes are up and down. Both guys would benefit from Porter’s absence should he be ruled out. Although they haven’t said who would start in his place, we can consider his replacement an elite option. It’s probably best to avoid Porter, if he plays, and Gortat. The only guys getting extended run are John Wall and Bradley Beal. Both are better on DraftKings where there much cheaper. Over the past two weeks, as they entered their playoff-mode, Wall has taken over. His usage has increased 2.2% and his per-minute fantasy production has gone up 0.15 FD ppm to 1.40 and 0.15 DK ppm to 1.48. Meanwhile, Beal’s production has dropped 0.09 FD ppm to 0.85 and 0.09 DK ppm to 0.92. Wall is the guy to play here; it helps that Dragic’s DRPM is the lowest among the Heat starters.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,300 $9,500 $17,600 1.25 36.4 -2.3 45.4 -1.9 34.8% 0.4% 4 -1.62
Bradley Beal $7,500 $7,000 $13,200 0.94 34.8 1.4 32.9 -1.3 26.5% -0.2% 1 -0.83
Otto Porter $5,100 $5,100 $10,100 0.82 32.8 -9.1 26.8 -8.7 14.9% 0.2% 9 -0.20
Markieff Morris $5,400 $4,900 $9,700 0.83 31.3 -7.8 26.0 -6.6 19.6% 1.8% 6 1.40
Marcin Gortat $4,700 $4,200 $8,300 0.84 31.4 -8.1 26.4 -7.8 14.6% -1.2% 8 2.33

Elite Plays – John Wall

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (DK), Jason Smith (If Morris out), Kelly Oubre, Bojan Bogdanovic

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Philadelphia 76ers
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 208.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 107.5 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- 2.2 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Justin Anderson Dario Saric Richaun Holmes
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 15 15 21 17 30 Adj. DvP 16 8 10 7 15
DRPM 0.55 0.67 -2.33 -0.73 0.37 DRPM -1.69 -0.90 0.49 1.57 -0.29

Milwaukee Bucks

Key thing here: Milwaukee has not clinched a playoff berth; they need to keep winning. On top of that, they’re playing the 76ers, a very fantasy-friendly team. Once again, they’ll be playing without ROY candidate Malcolm Brogdon, who’s missed the past four games with a back injury. John Henson (thumb will miss his tenth-straight contest.

Since Brogdon’s injury, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s usage has ticked up nearly 3% to 32.5% and his per-minute fantasy production has risen 0.10 FD ppm to 1.40 and 0.12 DK ppm to 1.48. During the same stretch, Khris Middelton’s usage has declined over 3% to 21.8% and his per-minute fantasy production has fallen with it. The Greek Freak is very up and down, but the ups are wayyy up. As you may have noticed. Did we already discuss the matchup? He’s playing the 76ers backups. Not surprisingly, they have the third-worst defensive rating in the last five games (115.0) and they’ve had the seventh-worst rebounding rate during that stretch (47.6%). He’s one of the best tournament plays on the board, but his lows make him a little dangerous for cash at his price. Although he will sit if this game gets out of hand, it only has a 6.5-point spread, which is a good sign. Khris Middleton is around $6k, a beatable salary for sure, but as mentioned, he’s taken a clear backseat to The Alphabet. With this terrific matchup, it’s hard to ignore him for tournaments though. Outside of those two there isn’t much to like. There’s too much value on the slate to worry about Tony Snell. Centers are always great against Philly, but Thon Maker and Greg Monroe are not getting very many minutes. It doesn’t seem like they’re worth the risk. Matthew Dellavedova hasn’t done anything with Brogdon down, he doesn’t have the upside to be worth a roster spot.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Matthew Dellavedova $3,500 $4,000 $7,800 0.64 26.1 -0.8 16.6 -1.2 19.5% -0.2% 15 0.55
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,300 $6,400 0.52 29.2 1.8 15.2 -5.2 11.8% -1.1% 15 0.67
Khris Middleton $5,900 $6,100 $12,000 0.86 30.4 3.9 26.0 1.2 23.5% -1.8% 21 -2.33
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,000 $9,800 $18,200 1.29 35.5 0.0 45.7 4.2 29.3% 2.2% 17 -0.73
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.80 9.4 9.9 7.6 7.5 17.1% 0.4% 30 0.37
Greg Monroe $5,400 $5,200 $10,200 1.09 22.5 -1.1 24.5 -9.2 23.8% -4.5% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers don’t have anyone left at this point and they’ve lost five in a row. Fortunately, we don’t have to worry about them being a bad basketball team because they’re great for our fantasy teams right now. Dario Saric is currently on a 24-minute limit, rendering him useless in DFS, but providing more time on the floor for Justin Anderson and Alex Poythress. Anderson has exceeded 30 minutes two nights in a row, while Poythress has been around 25. Anderson is pretty inconsistent and hasn’t posted any big games in a while. Poythress has only taken the floor in three total games in his career, so he’s a wild card. He had 25.75 DK points one night and 7.75 the next.

The best guys to target are Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, T.J. McConnell, and Richaun Holmes. TLC has played the most minutes since Saric’s injury (150.7) and he’s second among the starters in usage (22.6%), trailing only Dario Saric. He’s had a consistent floor – he’s been above 24.75 DK points in the last six games – and he has demonstrated a nice upside when he dropped 37.25 DK points on Brooklyn. His price has risen dramatically over the past few games, which means we have to think about it. Milwaukee isn’t a great matchup either, like Brooklyn is. He seems safe for cash, but the upside is a concern for tournaments at this inflated price tag. T.J. McConnell has delivered the same per-minute fantasy production (0.83 FD ppm; 0.89 DK ppm), but his minutes have risen; he’s been over 35 in five of the past six games. His lack of scoring limits his upside, but he’s been super consistent like TLC, scoring at least 27 DK points over the past six outings. He rolled his ankle last game, which is a reasonable concern, although he said he’d be fine. Limited upside and the ankle issue keep him as a secondary play for today even though he has a favorable matchup. Holmes is the man with upside here and he’s priced very close to those other two. Thon Maker’s defense is hardly a concern and Greg Monroe isn’t much better, he’s 48th among 70 qualifying centers in DRPM (0.67). Now we’re talking. Holmes may only have a usage rate of 19.0%, but he produces the most fantasy points per minutes among the starters (0.98 FD ppm; 1.05 DK ppm) and we’ve seen him post three double-doubles in the past ten games. Nik Stauskas could pick up some extra time tonight with McConnell a little hobbled up. He’s been under 25 minutes the past two nights. He’s a potential tournament option at his price, but he probably doesn’t offer enough upside to be worth the risk.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,700 $6,000 $11,900 0.83 26.2 7.4 21.8 5.5 19.6% 2.1% 16 -1.69
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $5,500 $5,900 $11,600 0.62 16.6 20.0 10.2 17.1 17.2% 1.3% 8 -0.90
Justin Anderson $4,200 $4,700 $9,200 0.80 15.9 13.0 12.8 8.1 19.3% -5.1% 10 0.49
Dario Saric $6,800 $6,100 $12,000 0.90 26.3 -0.3 23.7 -2.3 24.3% 2.2% 7 1.57
Richaun Holmes $6,100 $6,000 $11,900 0.98 20.2 8.8 19.8 10.3 17.9% 0.6% 15 -0.29
Nik Stauskas $3,800 $4,400 $8,700 0.61 27.3 1.2 16.8 5.7 17.0% 3.1% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (cash)

Secondary Plays – Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (GPP), T.J. McConnell, Justin Anderson (GPP), Alex Poythress (GPP)

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About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).