NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 16th
Jump to Page 1 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Portland Trail Blazers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 21 | 25 | 9 | 8 | DvP | 9 | 10 | 23 | 3 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers are on the second half of a back to back and get a matchup against the struggling Charlotte Hornets. This is a pace up game for the Trail Blazers against the ninth paced team in the league and the Hornets are ranked 19th in points allowed per game. You basically get a top ten pace team against a bottom ten team in points allowed per game. Put those two together and that is going to be great for fantasy points.
Jusuf Nurkic was on a minute’s restriction last night and played 25 minutes. There could be a chance he sits because of being on a minute’s restriction and now they are on a second half of a back to back. This is something that we are going to have to monitor the closer we get to lock. The Hornets are ranked in the top five at defending the Center position. I won’t be playing Nurkic but if he doesn’t play that could give me more interest in some other Blazer options. Damian Lillard gets a matchup against Kemba Walker defense (the 24th ranked team against opposing point guards). Lillard also has a team high 29.3% usage this season! Anytime Lillard gets a pace up game and great matchup he is firmly in play the question is do we want to pay the price for him?? If you have the money I don’t mind paying for him and I think he is an elite play on this slate. He feels expensive and I could see myself just finding the extra money for Westbrook on both FanDuel and DraftKings. CJ McCollum always makes sense as a contrarian pivot off Lillard, but this is not a spot that I will do that. Evan Turner has played better recently and gets to go against the 25th ranked team versus opposing Small Forwards. For his price he makes sense and if we are struggling for value he could come in play.
Notable Injuries None
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,500 | $9,100 | $17,000 | 42.8 | 2.1 | 37.2 | 2.7 | 1.15 | 29.3% | 20 | 24 | 18 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,100 | $6,800 | 32.2 | 0.7 | 36.6 | 1.1 | 0.88 | 23.0% | 20 | 21 | 10 | |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.2 | -2.6 | 26.1 | -1.4 | 0.66 | 15.4% | 22 | 25 | 7 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 23.9 | -0.5 | 30.0 | 2.6 | 0.80 | 12.0% | 12 | 9 | 17 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,200 | $6,400 | $12,300 | 30.8 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 0.6 | 1.10 | 24.3% | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Meyers Leonard | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 10.6 | -0.3 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 0.90 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard
Secondary Plays – None
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are 2-8 in their last ten games and get a matchup against the seventh ranked defensive efficiency team in the league. We still don’t have an implied total on this game but with the Hornets getting healthier and in this matchup, I don’t find them too appealing. They also get at tough matchup against a top ten defensive team in the league in a pace down game.
Looking at the Hornets I really don’t have an interest in a ton of options. Dwight Howard has been great this year and is way too overpriced on FanDuel at $8800. He is more in play for $7700 but the Blazers are ranked top ten against opposing Centers and second in rebound differential. This is a tough matchup for Dwight but if Nurkic sits than he would become a much better play. I also like some cheaper centers so he likely will not make my lineups. Despite the team high 26% usage for Kemba Walker and the revenge narrative for Nicolas Batum against his old team they are not appealing in these matchups. Portland has been a much better defensive team this year and there are better plays in their price range across the industry. Mike Kidd-Gilchrist has been better and draws the best matchup on the Hornets. If you for some reason get locked in on him I wouldn’t talk you off him, but I have not played him all year and don’t think I need to start today.
Notable Injuries Cody Zeller (out)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.4 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,000 | $7,200 | $13,400 | 36.5 | -5.0 | 35.4 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 26.0% | 7 | 9 | 20 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,000 | $5,700 | $11,500 | 23.5 | -0.1 | 29.8 | 2.0 | 0.79 | 18.5% | 18 | 10 | 21 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,400 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.7 | 10.5 | 26.7 | 3.8 | 0.81 | 14.8% | 16 | 23 | 4 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 19.3 | 4.5 | 26.7 | 5.5 | 0.72 | 12.4% | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,800 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 35.2 | 15.1 | 30.0 | 4.9 | 1.17 | 20.4% | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $3,700 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.1 | -0.3 | 22.8 | -6.1 | 0.79 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 26.7 | -13.3 | 27.2 | -6.2 | 0.98 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.5 | Vegas Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Jonas Jerebko | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 13 | DvP | 17 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 14 | 28 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 5 | |
Utah Jazz
This is a game where we have injuries we are forced to wait on all day long for and the news will change the slate. If Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert are out, Epke Udoh is going to be forced to play big minutes. Now I get Epke Udoh has not played massive minutes in a while but when both Favors and Gobert left last night’s game Udoh played 29 minutes. Off a second half of a back to back I am slightly concerned, and I could also see the Jazz going small in this game. They could go so small that we could see Jonas Jerebko matched up against Kevin Love at the 5. If Favors and Gobert sit both Udoh and Jerebko would be excellent value plays. If they do go small guys like Sefolosha and Joe Johnson could get some time at the 4 and could become interesting value plays. Again, we don’t currently have that news, but I thought it was important to note this when talking about the game.
Cleveland is still ranked in the bottom five in defensive efficiency, 23rd in points allowed per game and 19th in rebounding differential. They are clearly still a team that we should be targeting for fantasy points the question is where can we get it. Again, a lot hinges on the Gobert and Favors news but I think there are two players that we should be interested in no matter what. Rookie Donavon Mitchell has been a stud and is popping in my model and is way too underpriced on DraftKings at $6900. This is a price that we should take advantage of. Cleveland is ranked 25th against opposing shooting guards and Mitchell is averaging 39.3 DraftKings points per game in his last 5 games. On FanDuel he is still in play at $7800 but I prefer to buy low on his price over on DraftKings because hey I like a good deal when I can get one. Speaking of good deals have you looked seen at the price of Ricky Rubio on FanDuel?? Rubio is only $4900 and gets a matchup against a bottom ten team at defending point guards. He is also a steal on DraftKings for only $5000. I know Rubio has just been average and not flashed a ton of upside besides last night but, if Favors and Gobert sit he will be forced to shoot more like last night. Rubio had 15 shot attempts last night which is 3 higher than any of his last ten games. Rubio is a secondary option if these two bigs are in but if we both are out he is instantly an elite play.
Rodney Hood would see a bump in usage and is a guy I would probably only use if I know both the bigs are out. The game would just go small and lead to more opportunities for him but a lot hinges on the news. I don’t love Hood today, but he is worth mentioning at his price. Same goes for Joe Ingles he is worth noting but more so because of his consistency. In Ingles last 5 games he is averaging 33.3 minutes per game and 26.4 DraftKings points for only $4800. You really can’t beat that making Ingles a safe cash option with some tournament upside if the news breaks the right way.
Notable Injuries Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors (questionable) and Raul Neto (out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 103.0 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 25.6 | -4.4 | 28.8 | 2.0 | 0.89 | 21.1% | 18 | 21 | 10 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,800 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 29.9 | 10.6 | 29.9 | 6.4 | 1.00 | 25.5% | 22 | 25 | 26 |
| Joe Ingles | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.4 | 1.8 | 29.9 | 2.5 | 0.78 | 15.7% | 26 | 20 | 14 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 13.0 | -1.1 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.77 | 13.3% | 21 | 19 | 28 |
| Derrick Favors | $4,900 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 26.6 | -6.9 | 27.8 | -1.0 | 0.96 | 16.7% | 10 | 13 | 19 |
| Rodney Hood | $5,300 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 24.4 | -2.0 | 28.1 | -2.6 | 0.87 | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ekpe Udoh | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 12.3 | -12.3 | 14.4 | -10.8 | 0.86 | 8.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alec Burks | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 18.8 | 5.1 | 20.0 | 5.4 | 0.94 | 20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell (DraftKings)
Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio and Derrick Favors (if he plays)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland’s matchup against the Jazz really depends on who is in and out. I don’t expect Gobert to play so this is likely not the strong defensive Utah Jazz team we know but they are still a well-coached defensive team that plays at a slow pace. The Jazz are also ranked 4th best in the league in points allowed per game. DraftKings also didn’t give us the Utah Jazz price decrease on the Cavs so there is not a ton of value here in the Cavs. LeBron James is clearly in play on any slate and matchup proof, but I just don’t think your money is well spent here. Why play LBJ against Utah when I can play Giannis against Houston or Westbrook against the Knicks?? This just seems like an easy spot to fade LBJ for me. Same with Kevin Love I understand he could be a matchup problem and has upside in tournaments, so I will make him a secondary play but for someone who doesn’t play a ton of lineups like me I just like other options. I think for people playing multiple tournament teams don’t sleep on Kevin Love, but my argument will be just play Clint Capela or DeAndre Jordan for cheaper or a comparable price around the industry. Other than that, I won’t mess with any Cleveland players just Kevin Love as an interesting secondary tournament option.
Notable Injuries Tristan Thompson (questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $4,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 0.60 | 11.0% | 10 | 17 | 5 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 17.6 | 2.0 | 30.7 | -2.1 | 0.57 | 11.9% | 17 | 2 | 19 |
| LeBron James | $12,500 | $11,600 | $22,300 | 55.1 | 8.5 | 37.3 | 0.7 | 1.48 | 29.4% | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.7 | 3.5 | 25.8 | 1.4 | 0.61 | 13.8% | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| Kevin Love | $8,000 | $7,900 | $15,000 | 36.3 | 3.2 | 29.4 | 0.3 | 1.23 | 22.9% | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,800 | $5,100 | $11,400 | 24.9 | -6.1 | 23.7 | 0.4 | 1.05 | 22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.7 | -0.2 | 21.9 | 4.2 | 0.85 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Korver | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 16.2 | -0.4 | 22.5 | 1.3 | 0.72 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LeBron James and Kevin Love
Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | 0.0 | Vegas Spread | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Alex Abrines | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | DvP | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 14 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 11 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Fresh off a triple overtime victory the Thunder head to Garden to take on the New York Knicks who are currently on a three-game win streak. Kristaps Porzingis is currently questionable for this game and is not someone I am looking to roster at $9,000 but if he doesn’t play that will open some value for us. You can argue the Knicks are a funnel defense as we say in NFL way too much. What I mean by that is that they struggle at defending opposing guards and are good at defending opposing forwards and centers. Russell Westbrook gets to go against the 28th ranked team in the league against opposing point guards. This is an incredible spot for Westbrook and if everyone said $10900 on FanDuel was too cheap against Philly wouldn’t $11100 be too cheap against the Knicks?? The answer is yes, I love him on FanDuel and DraftKings and is a guy that we should be jamming in our cash and tournament lineups. I will stay away from Paul George here because he is too priced up for the situation he is in.
I sort of buried the lead, but I thought talking about Westbrook was more important. Are you ready for Carmelo Anthony REVENGE DAY? Yes, we have been waiting for this for a long time and luckily, we get Melo at a decent price for $7000 on DK and $6800 on FD. I think I am more interested in him on FanDuel where I must play two power forwards. I love talking a walk down narrative street and I am sure he will hear tons of boos and want to shut up the New York crowd tonight, so I expect him to jack up a ton of shots. I like him in tournaments, but I do think there are going to be other good Forward options. I think you want to get exposure to Melo on this slate but in your cash games I don’t think you have to force him in there just because of the revenge. If he fits great but there are some good forward options to consider for cheaper and Melo is priced where he should be this season. Last guy I want to mention is Steven Adams who is more in play on FanDuel than DraftKings for me. I do worry about him playing 50 minutes last night, but I don’t mind him as an option.
Notable Injuries None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.3 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,100 | $11,500 | $22,000 | 50.3 | 0.4 | 36.0 | 1.7 | 1.40 | 33.5% | 29 | 28 | 14 |
| Alex Abrines | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 17.9 | 13.6 | 0.53 | 11.6% | 4 | 16 | 20 |
| Paul George | $7,600 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 38.1 | -11.4 | 36.8 | -3.1 | 1.03 | 23.2% | 20 | 7 | 19 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,800 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 30.9 | -2.0 | 32.9 | 2.7 | 0.94 | 23.0% | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 30.5 | 3.1 | 31.8 | 2.4 | 0.96 | 14.6% | 3 | 3 | 22 |
| Jerami Grant | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.8 | -5.4 | 21.6 | -5.2 | 0.82 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony
New York Knicks
A lot hinges on the Porzingis news and if he doesn’t play there will certainly be value here. Porzingis sees a 29.4% usage and if he doesn’t play there is a lot of production to go around. The problem is when there is value it is hard to trust Hornaceck to play the appropriate players because he tinkers with minutes and has played some weird lineups in these types of spots. If you take Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. off the floor in the Rotogrinders Court IQ, you will see that the highest usage player would be Michael Beasley at 32.1%. Yes, that’s right it could be a Michael Beasley night and we also see Hernangomez have a 31.8% usage and 1.23 fantasy points per minute. A lot of that was in garbage time but I thought it was worth noting with Enes Kanter playing banged up. Kanter is in a revenge spot against his old team. I think he is too overpriced at this point and I will pass on him despite the revenge.
The Center that could really benefit without Porzingis would be Kyle O’Quinn. I know that KOQ days never go well and luckily, he is priced up on FD. On DK he is only $4200 and if Porzingis doesn’t play he would see a boost in production, averaging 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. Of all the positions on the floor the Thunder happen to allow the most fantasy production to the center position. Everything is lining up for a big game for O’Quinn if Kristaps sits. If he does play I think he is too overpriced to play in this matchup especially coming off an injury. Besides that, I really don’t have a ton of interest in the Knicks guards and mainly want to attack the value if Porzingis sits. Jarret Jack and Courtney Lee draw bad matchup and are unappealing at their current prices.
Notable Injuries Tim Hardaway Jr. (out) and Kristaps Porzingis (questionable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 19.0 | 1.2 | 26.0 | -0.3 | 0.73 | 16.4% | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,800 | $5,700 | $12,500 | 24.9 | -0.2 | 32.4 | -0.5 | 0.77 | 16.2% | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 17.1 | 7.0 | 0.47 | 10.6% | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,700 | $9,000 | $17,500 | 41.2 | 3.2 | 31.8 | 1.1 | 1.29 | 29.4% | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,900 | $6,800 | $12,700 | 29.2 | -4.2 | 25.9 | -0.8 | 1.13 | 17.9% | 4 | 18 | 11 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $5,400 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 19.2 | 2.4 | 16.3 | -0.4 | 1.18 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – none
Secondary Plays – Kyle O’Quinn and Michael Beasley (if Porzingis is out)
Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 114.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Gary Payton | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 11 | 19 | 8 | 17 | DvP | 4 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 9 | 5 | 26 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 11 | N/A | 26 | 3 | 4 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s rare to see the Bucks in a 219.5 total but they are 10-point underdogs going up against the streaking Houston Rockets who have yet to lose a game with Chris Paul. The Rockets are ranked 8th in pace which is going to be great for the Bucks from a fantasy perspective. The Bucks are on a second half of a back to back and as double-digit road underdogs there is reason to worry about a blowout. Rockets are also ranked 5th in defensive efficiency but there are still plays that we should be considering here.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is expensive on FanDuel and I don’t think that I am going to pay up for him over there unless I have enough value open. On DraftKings he is much more appealing for only $10800 and gets a matchup against the Rockets who are ranked 19th versus opposing small forwards. Giannis is always a great play and if I do pay up for him in tournaments I think I would want to make sure to run it back with some plays on the Houston side of the ball. Giannis is a cash game consideration as well for me, it just kind of depends on how the value opens and where I want to pay up. If you can’t afford Giannis look no further than Middleton and Bledsoe. Bledsoe will draw a tough matchup against Chris Paul. I don’t hate Bledsoe here but the tough matchup and comparable price to Middleton makes me shy away from him. Middleton would be my cheaper route to take to get exposure to this game if I can’t pay for Giannis. I like the idea of either playing Middleton or Giannis and running it back with Capela to get exposure to this game.
Notable Injuries Tony Snell and Matthew Dellavedova (questionable) Mirza Telotovic and Jason Terry (out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $6,900 | $14,100 | 33.6 | 4.2 | 30.8 | 2.7 | 1.09 | 25.1% | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Gary Payton | $3,700 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 0.66 | 15.5% | 19 | 11 | 9 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,900 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 36.9 | 0.4 | 0.94 | 22.4% | 24 | 19 | 5 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,200 | $10,800 | $19,000 | 56.3 | 1.8 | 37.7 | 2.8 | 1.49 | 29.7% | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| John Henson | $5,700 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.4 | 4.6 | 23.6 | 1.8 | 0.95 | 12.5% | 14 | 17 | 4 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.9 | 1.3 | 30.1 | 0.1 | 0.79 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton
Houston Rockets
The Rockets offense is a well-oiled machine, ranked second in points per game and have highest implied total on the slate. This is clearly an offense that you want to get exposure to the problem is the matchup is against a bottom five paced team in the league. I normally hate targeting slower paced teams, but the Rockets are in too good of a spot that I think we can ignore that.
My favorite play in this game is Clint Capela especially on DraftKings where he only cost $6700. Capela always feels safe and too cheap at that price. He is currently averaging 32.4 DK points for only $6700 and against the 24th ranked team versus opposing centers. I talked about how the Knicks are a funnel defense and get destroyed at the guard position, that is exactly what the Bucks are, but they get killed by Centers. I love Capela in this spot and would be an elite play for me. James Harden and Chris Paul are pretty good at basketball. They get a tough matchup against a Bucks team that defends opposing guards well but that doesn’t matter to me. These two are both matchup proof and in play against anyone. If I must pick one to play I lean Chris Paul who is coming off back to back 62 fantasy point games! He is on fire and someone I want to keep playing at this price. Paul and Bledsoe were also former teammates and are still close friends to this day. I would expect both guys to get up for this game and I love both the Rockets guards, but Paul is my preferred play.
Notable Injuries None
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.8 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.8 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,600 | $8,600 | $16,500 | 42.0 | 10.6 | 30.8 | 4.0 | 1.36 | 23.5% | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| James Harden | $11,400 | $11,100 | $21,000 | 54.1 | 0.8 | 35.7 | -1.0 | 1.52 | 34.2% | 13 | 8 | N/A |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 24.2 | 0.7 | 34.2 | 1.3 | 0.71 | 12.2% | 12 | 2 | 26 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 20.3 | -4.8 | 28.6 | -2.8 | 0.71 | 13.8% | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Clint Capela | $7,700 | $6,700 | $12,600 | 35.0 | -0.7 | 25.1 | -3.0 | 1.39 | 17.0% | 30 | 24 | 4 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,200 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 25.8 | -4.1 | 31.5 | -0.3 | 0.82 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Clint Capela and Chris Paul
Secondary Plays – James Harden
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | C.J. Williams | Wesley Johnson | Jamil Wilson | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 2 | DvP | 8 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 17 | 6 | 15 | 14 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
Along with Blake Griffin, the Clippers will be without Austin Rivers and Danilo Gallinari in this game. The Clippers come into this game as 6-point road underdogs but will have a ton of value plays to consider. The heat is not a team that I target often because they typically play in lower total games and are a strong defensive team. They have dealt with some injuries this year and are not the same team as last year.
DeAndre Jordan is still way too cheap on DraftKings for $7300. On FanDuel it is more of a conversation for his price but on DK you just lock him in your lineups. He is coming off an average game and has been putting up 44.2 DraftKings points in his last five games. The Heat are ranked 23rd in rebounding differential and don’t have anyone in the paint to stop Jordan. This is a spot where I expect Jordan to dominate and he is an elite play for me. With Rivers out and after a day of rest I really like Milos Teodosic for only $4700. On FanDuel I don’t mind him at $5500 but his price on DK is just too cheap if he sees his normal minutes. He should return and if he does I think he is a great option to consider despite the tough matchup.
I still have not mentioned Lou Williams who gets a matchup against Dion Waiters defense. If you didn’t know Dion Waiters and the Heat are ranked last at defending the shooting guard position and this is a great spot to exploit. Williams price is high throughout the industry for a points dependent player which makes him just a secondary option for me. Milos coming back will hurt Jawaun Evans value. Evans had 41 DK points for only $3000 yesterday and was highly owned. If people are going back to him with Milos in I will pass. If Doc says that he earned more playing time and will be under owned, then I think we need to think about him as an interesting tournament option. Sam Dekker was a cheap guy who disappointed us yesterday, so I doubt I will go back to him with the Clippers getting slightly healthier.
Notable Injuries Austin Rivers and Danilo Gallinari (out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | $5,500 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 18.2 | 5.7 | 19.5 | 3.5 | 0.93 | 23.0% | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| C.J. Williams | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.59 | 11.7% | 14 | 13 | 21 |
| Wesley Johnson | $4,400 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 18.6 | -1.4 | 25.1 | -2.8 | 0.74 | 11.9% | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| Jamil Wilson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 7.5 | -0.1 | 13.6 | 1.3 | 0.55 | 12.0% | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $8,600 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 33.8 | 11.8 | 32.7 | 1.6 | 1.03 | 10.9% | 18 | 2 | 15 |
| Lou Williams | $8,500 | $7,700 | $14,200 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 30.6 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 26.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sam Dekker | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 0.75 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan
Secondary Plays – Milos Teodosic and Lou Williams
Miami Heat
It’s odd to see the Heat so banged up as 6-point favorites with an implied team total of 105.8. The Heat get a matchup against a banged-up Clippers team who are struggling with a ton of injuries especially the loss of Blake Griffin. The Heat are not a team that I love to target but with their current injuries we must give them a look. James Johnson is an elite play on DK and FD today. In the last four games Johnson has been asked to do a lot more for the Heat and has had at least 31 minutes and 30.1 FanDuel points. He is underpriced throughout the industry and is an elite forward option on this slate. Not playing Goran Dragic has been fun while other people have chased him all year long. Sometimes you can’t explain things and I can’t understand why he has been awful, but he just has been. I don’t have anything fancy saying why he is a bad play but simply look at his game logs, matchup, price and compare him to other players in that range. He is not worth it to me at that price and I will continue to play better plays.
Kelly Olynyk and Dion Waiters are both tournament plays that you can consider. If Waiters knocks down his shots he has upside. In his last two games he has more shot attempts than normal and if they fall he will have a massive game. Waiters is an elite tournament play for me. Olynyk’s price on DK is too cheap at $4900. He is way too cheap over there and a secondary option that you should consider. The common theme from this game is to attack the underpriced value plays because both teams are banged up. It feels weird loading up on Clippers and Heat, but I think they are too cheap around the industry and we must consider strongly them.
Notable Injuries Hassan Whiteside, Justice Winslow, Okaro White and Rodney McGruder (out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 5.5 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $6,200 | $12,700 | 29.3 | -1.3 | 31.6 | -3.3 | 0.93 | 24.1% | 13 | 8 | 9 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,300 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 23.9 | -2.6 | 30.9 | -0.5 | 0.77 | 23.3% | 25 | 30 | 17 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 20.1 | 1.5 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 0.62 | 14.2% | 25 | 22 | 6 |
| James Johnson | $6,500 | $6,000 | $12,900 | 26.5 | 3.2 | 28.1 | 2.6 | 0.94 | 18.3% | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,800 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 20.9 | 5.6 | 0.96 | 16.6% | 20 | 22 | 14 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,900 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 20.6 | 8.4 | 27.4 | 2.6 | 0.75 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |