NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 2nd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.5 | Implied Team Total | 113.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 5.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Greg Monroe | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 13 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 18 | 30 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 23 | |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are one of the worst teams in the league and draw a tough matchup against the best defensive team in the league. That would be the Boston Celtics who are ranked 17th in pace in the league and are 13-point favorites. There is certainly reason to believe there could be a blowout here going up against the top team in the East so that has me worried when rostering some Suns players. There is also not a ton of value here due to injuries so that makes some of these Suns options tough to roster.
The Celtics are the best defensive team in the league and I rarely target opponents against them. If I had to pick anyone on the Suns here to play it would be TJ Warren. Warren is underpriced at $6400 and has high usage, putting up a ton of shots every night. The Celtics biggest weakness would be against the Small Forward position where they are ranked 16th in the league. All of this adds up to Warren being my favorite play to target on the Suns (if I had to pick one). The Celtics have been bad against rebounding in the past but are currently ranked 6th this season. Greg Monroe is still a value at $4700 but in this matchup against Boston I think he is worth passing on here. Devin Booker is another player that we like to roster when playing Phoenix players. The problem is he should draw a lot of Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart defense all game. I would expect Booker to have trouble getting enough open looks to hit value today. Other than that, the Suns are unpredictable and unless we get word of some players sitting we should stay away from Phoenix players.
Notable Injuries Alex Len (questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -6.4 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,500 | $4,200 | 17.5 | 4.0 | 22.6 | 2.5 | 0.77 | 18.6% | 45.0% | 4 | 12 | |
| Devin Booker | $6,500 | $7,500 | 34.6 | -4.7 | 33.4 | -2.3 | 1.04 | 26.3% | 55.7% | 2 | 1 | |
| T.J. Warren | $6,900 | $6,400 | 31.0 | -4.8 | 30.9 | 1.8 | 1.00 | 22.3% | 54.1% | 13 | 3 | |
| Marquese Chriss | $4,100 | $4,000 | 17.9 | -1.0 | 20.0 | -0.5 | 0.90 | 13.8% | 48.6% | 2 | 2 | |
| Greg Monroe | $5,000 | $4,700 | 19.9 | -2.1 | 19.1 | -1.0 | 1.04 | 17.9% | 56.6% | 13 | 2 | |
| Alex Len | $4,800 | $4,600 | 23.9 | -0.1 | 23.0 | -1.1 | 1.04 | 14.2% | 58.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – TJ Warren
Boston Celtics
The Celtics get a great matchup on this slate against the awful Phoenix Suns. Phoenix is ranked 1st in pace, last in points allowed per game and second to last in defensive efficiency. The Suns are the Coors Field of DFS right now and if they can make the Chicago Bulls great plays, you can bet the Celtics will be great plays. This game has a 214 total, surprisingly only the second highest on the early slate. The biggest concern I will have here is there could be a chance at a blowout with Boston being 13-point home favorites.
Kyrie Irving has been a stud since joining Boston. He has a 29.2% true usage and is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute. Now he draws a matchup against the worst team in the league against point guards. $9,200 seems expensive but Kyrie should smash in this spot and the only reason to be worried about Kyrie hitting value is the blow out concerns that would have him sitting out late in the game. Even then, he still could hit value but ultimately that could hurt his tournament upside. With there being so much value on the early slate I would be sure to pay up for Kyrie Irving. Other options like Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are all in play on this slate. The Suns are so bad on defense you can consider any of these options at their current prices.
Marcus Morris is still too cheap at $4,900 and he gets a little revenge against his former team. The Morris twins had a bad break up with Phoenix, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Marcus had a big game. Morris’ minutes have been trending upward and he has had at least 20 or more fantasy points in his last 8 games. The last Celtics player I will mention is Al Horford for $8,100. That seems pricey but again the early slate has a ton of value where paying up for him shouldn’t be a huge problem. The Suns struggle against opposing centers and on the boards so this is a good spot for Horford.
Notable Injuries None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (1 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 9.5 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.8 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.6 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $9,200 | $9,200 | 38.1 | -1.1 | 31.6 | 0.5 | 1.21 | 29.2% | 58.1% | 30 | 29 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,900 | $6,300 | 27.5 | -5.2 | 32.2 | -1.8 | 0.85 | 18.6% | 55.7% | 28 | 29 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,900 | $6,200 | 26.3 | -2.9 | 30.6 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 15.5% | 63.0% | 18 | 29 | |
| Al Horford | $7,700 | $8,100 | 33.5 | 0.3 | 32.4 | -0.8 | 1.03 | 16.9% | 63.0% | 30 | 15 | |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,700 | 15.8 | -0.3 | 18.2 | -0.5 | 0.87 | 14.5% | 51.4% | 17 | 23 | |
| Marcus Smart | $6,100 | $5,700 | 26.2 | 0.4 | 30.8 | 0.4 | 0.85 | 19.1% | 43.2% | N/A | N/A | |
| Marcus Morris | $5,000 | $4,900 | 23.2 | -1.7 | 23.6 | -0.4 | 0.98 | 21.5% | 54.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving
Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks – 2:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Austin Rivers | Lou Williams | Wesley Johnson | Montrezl Harrell | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 19 | 7 | 23 | 14 | DvP | 8 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 18 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are a train wreck… plain and simple. The loss of Blake Griffin was the final straw for them and they are now a bad team, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have good fantasy options here. The Clippers get a matchup against a slow-paced team but a bottom ten defensive efficiency team. This game has a 207 total with the Mavericks as a 5-point home favorites. Some of the Clippers players are not the greatest players you have ever seen, but with everyone hurt there is room for opportunity for these players.
Lou Williams is still too cheap on DraftKings at $7,800. On this early slate with not a ton of studs to pay for just open Lou Williams’ game log and try and fade him. He has a ton of responsibility on the floor with all the injuries for the Clippers and has played over 36 minutes in each of his last four games. I don’t see that stopping anytime soon. Another great play along with Williams at the guard would be Austin Rivers for $6,100. In Rivers’ last five games he is averaging 35.5 minutes a game and 30 DraftKings points per game. People may worry about playing both Rivers and Williams together but on this three-game slate, I think both are able to exceed value in this matchup. The Mavs are ranked 23rd against point guards and 19th against shooting guards, making both guards great plays.
The guards are not the only plays here to consider on the Clippers side of the ball, as we should also have interest in the frontcourt. Wesley Johnson is a nice secondary option for $4,800. Johnson is still not priced up enough and he can be inconsistent at times. The question with Johnson is not the number of minutes will he play but how many shots will he make? If the shots are falling, he should hit value, but if they don’t he could certainly disappoint. Sam Dekker was a value play I took a shot on the other day but he only saw 20 minutes last game. I don’t think I will take a shot on him again, but I wouldn’t talk you out of it. I expect Montrezl Harrell to get another start and for almost the minimum I think he is in play once again. He only played 21 minutes last game and I wouldn’t expect him to exceed that amount. The last play on the Clippers to talk about is DeAndre Jordan in a revenge spot. Jordan almost signed with Dallas and now they hate him there. I am sure he will hear boos all game long in Dallas and for $7,300 this could be the perfect spot for him. Dallas is ranked 27th in rebounding and I don’t expect old man Dirk to be able to stop Jordan on the boards. He has been real inconsistent this year, so I can’t make him an elite play, but he is a secondary one for me on this early slate.
Notable Injuries Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari (out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -5.2 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Rivers | $6,400 | $6,100 | 24.0 | 4.6 | 33.5 | 2.4 | 0.72 | 19.0% | 48.3% | 23 | 29 | |
| Lou Williams | $8,000 | $7,800 | 28.8 | 5.7 | 28.9 | 5.5 | 1.00 | 25.2% | 59.7% | 19 | 28 | |
| Wesley Johnson | $5,500 | $4,800 | 18.6 | 3.8 | 24.7 | 7.4 | 0.75 | 11.3% | 59.1% | 7 | 30 | |
| Montrezl Harrell | $4,600 | $4,000 | 9.8 | -0.4 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.16 | 16.8% | 59.0% | 23 | 19 | |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,700 | $7,300 | 30.9 | -3.2 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 10.0% | 66.4% | 14 | 18 | |
| Sam Dekker | $3,700 | $3,700 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 0.79 | 14.5% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lou Williams and Austin Rivers
Secondary Plays – Wesley Johnson and DeAndre Jordan
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are not a team that I enjoy playing too much but against a banged up Clippers team we should have some interest. The Mavericks are currently five-point favorites and have the sixth highest team total on the day at 106. Their opponent is currently ranked in the bottom ten in the league in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. With all the injuries the Clippers have sustained this is one of the better spots we will see for Dallas.
Dennis Smith Jr. is currently questionable with a stomach virus and if he plays I think he’s a good play, but the illness has me slightly worried. If Smith Jr. doesn’t play J.J. Barea instantly becomes an elite value play on this slate. Barea has a 26.4% usage which is the second highest on the team and he only costs $4,700. In his last five games, Barea has only played 22 minutes and is averaging 26.2 DraftKings points per game.
Attacking the Clippers at the wing is also a profitable strategy where they are ranked 26th in the league. Harrison Barnes should see some time there and in his last five games is averaging 36 minutes and 35.9 DraftKings points per game. Barnes is only $6,700, and his consistency makes him an elite play for me on this early slate. Wesley Matthews draws a good matchup as well, but his inconsistency will keep me off him. If you want to take a tournament flyer on him, I don’t mind it. I didn’t mention Dirk Nowitzki, but I just don’t think he is that great of a play here. I know the game logs show some good games recently but I just can’t get behind him here in this matchup and with way better value plays available today.
Notable Injuries Dennis Smith Jr. and Nerlens Noel (questionable)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.5 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (6 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 6.8 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,600 | $5,800 | 26.0 | -3.1 | 28.4 | -1.1 | 0.92 | 27.2% | 46.1% | 8 | 24 | |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,800 | $4,900 | 22.1 | -5.3 | 35.0 | -0.2 | 0.63 | 14.9% | 52.8% | 29 | 28 | |
| Harrison Barnes | $7,000 | $6,700 | 31.1 | 1.9 | 35.4 | -0.5 | 0.88 | 21.4% | 53.5% | 26 | 7 | |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,700 | $3,200 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 14.2 | 3.1 | 0.66 | 11.9% | 57.4% | 15 | 8 | |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,100 | $5,000 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 24.9 | 0.6 | 0.89 | 18.0% | 54.7% | 26 | 10 | |
| J.J. Barea | $4,700 | $4,700 | 22.6 | 2.7 | 22.2 | -1.0 | 1.02 | 26.4% | 54.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – JJ Barea
Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets – 3:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.3 | Implied Team Total | 111.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Miles Plumlee | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Joe Harris | DeMarre Carroll | Trevor Booker | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 17 | 29 | 26 | 29 | DvP | 16 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 24 | 8 | 22 | 20 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 10 | |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks get a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets in the highest total game on the early slate at 219. The Hawks are 4.5 point underdogs on the road with some injuries going into the day. The Nets are ranked 29th in points per game, 26th in defensive efficiency and are the third fastest paced team in the league. The Nets are like the Suns in many ways and a team that I love to target.
The big injury news for the Hawks is that they will be without Dedmon, Muscala and Collins in this matchup. That leaves only Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Babbitt, Tyler Cavanaugh and Miles Plumlee to soak up 96 minutes between the 4 and the 5. Taurean Prince could soak up some time at the four with Brooklyn likely going small as well. If I had to pick between this group, Ersan and Babbitt would be my favorite values at power forward and center on the Hawks side of the ball. With the Hawks being so thin in their frontcourt, I expect their wings to play heavier minutes to help when the game goes small. Bazemore and Prince would likely benefit a ton from this and are good options here. The Nets still struggle against point guards and are ranked 25th in the league against them. Dennis Schroder still leads the league in touches but has a hefty pricetag at $8,500. This is a great matchup for him though and he is certainly one of the options you will want to consider spending up for on this slate.
Notable Injuries Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala and John Collins (out) Luke Babbit (questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.2 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.2 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $8,200 | $8,500 | 33.8 | -1.5 | 32.1 | -0.8 | 1.05 | 28.9% | 52.9% | 25 | 10 | |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,600 | $6,000 | 27.8 | -6.6 | 28.2 | -2.5 | 0.99 | 20.6% | 51.4% | 17 | 24 | |
| Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $5,600 | 26.0 | -5.5 | 31.0 | -2.7 | 0.84 | 17.3% | 52.6% | 29 | 8 | |
| Luke Babbitt | $4,600 | $4,300 | 12.9 | -11.4 | 19.6 | -12.4 | 0.66 | 13.7% | 61.4% | 26 | 22 | |
| Miles Plumlee | $3,500 | $3,400 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | -0.11 | 1.4% | 0.0% | 29 | 20 | |
| Marco Belinelli | $5,200 | $4,700 | 21.4 | 4.1 | 25.8 | 0.8 | 0.83 | 19.2% | 56.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Dennis Schroder
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince and Luke Babbitt (if he plays)
Brooklyn Nets
It’s odd to say this but the Nets are currently 4.5-point favorites in the highest game total on the early slate. They draw a matchup against the banged up 4-17 Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta is ranked in the bottom five in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. This is not a pace up game for the Nets, but the Hawks are listed as 11th in the league in pace. This should be a fast tempo game with no defense being played.
Spencer Dinwiddie is $7,000 – what a time to be alive! I can’t believe he cost this much and it’s only December, but he draws a matchup against Dennis Schroder who struggles defensively. The only reason I don’t think I will pay for Dinwiddie is because I think there are better value and pay up options at guard on this slate. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable and if he sits this would make Demarre Carroll and Trevor Booker elite value plays in this matchup. The Hawks are ranked 27th against shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards this season. Carroll and Booker are probably two of my favorite plays on the Nets side of the ball. With all their injuries they should soak up a ton of minutes if Hollis-Jefferson sits. Caris Levert and Joe Harris are also in play at shooting guard for only $5,000. There are a ton of value plays on this slate so it’s tough to play them all. I wish we had more of this value on the main slate.
Notable Injuries Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe (questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.1 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (2 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,600 | $7,000 | 27.4 | 5.8 | 25.9 | 6.0 | 1.06 | 22.9% | 53.2% | 16 | 29 | |
| Joe Harris | $4,200 | $4,500 | 17.8 | 2.1 | 23.1 | 5.9 | 0.77 | 15.6% | 60.5% | 27 | 3 | |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,300 | $5,900 | 27.9 | 4.5 | 29.7 | 1.6 | 0.94 | 17.5% | 57.0% | 27 | 22 | |
| Trevor Booker | $5,000 | $5,500 | 22.6 | 6.2 | 22.5 | 2.3 | 1.01 | 18.3% | 55.3% | 27 | 13 | |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,800 | $3,700 | 16.0 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 1.4 | 0.89 | 14.6% | 63.0% | 20 | 10 | |
| Caris LeVert | $5,400 | $5,000 | 23.0 | 3.9 | 25.8 | 2.4 | 0.89 | 18.8% | 48.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Trevor Booker and Demarre Carroll
Secondary Plays – Caris Levert
Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 25 | 25 | 18 | 27 | DvP | 13 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 28 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 22 | 10 | 29 | 5 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons are on a roll right now and are ranked fourth in the Eastern Conference after winning seven of their last ten games. Not many people saw this coming, but this should be a big game for them against a tough Sixers team. The Sixers are ranked in the bottom ten in points per game but are in the top ten in defensive efficiency and are the best rebounding differential team in the league. This game has a 214 total and the Pistons come in as five-point underdogs on the second half of a back-to-back.
Andre Drummond is coming off a big game against the Wizards where he had 55.75 DraftKings points. He has been impressive this season and draws a matchup against the Sixers who are ranked in the bottom five against opposing Centers. Last game out, Drummond had 44 DrafKings points against Philadelphia and is currently popping in my model. He is in play as an elite play for me but there are some other centers that I already prefer on this slate. At $8,600, Drummond could be in for a big game here. Joel Embiid also called out Drummond last game saying that he has no defense. So keep an eye on that narrative throughout the day and during the game, maybe Drummond comes out there with something to prove.
Avery Bradley is the next player that I like on the Pistons side of the ball. The Sixers are ranked 25th in the league against opposing shooting guards and Bradley only cost $5,600. He is one of those safe cash game plays that rarely burns you and consistently puts up 20-30 fantasy points a night. In this matchup, he is a nice secondary play for me. Stanley Johnson may be cheap and has a good matchup, but I am not falling into that trap on this slate. Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith are another trap that I won’t be falling into. Jackson and Ish split too much time which makes them both difficult to smash value.
Notable Injuries Jon Leur (questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (8 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.5 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,900 | $6,100 | $11,700 | 28.7 | -1.6 | 27.7 | -2.6 | 1.04 | 25.5% | 57.0% | 14 | 1 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 25.6 | -4.8 | 31.7 | -0.7 | 0.81 | 21.1% | 53.9% | 25 | 26 |
| Stanley Johnson | $3,800 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.4 | -0.3 | 29.6 | -0.9 | 0.59 | 12.7% | 48.1% | 25 | 1 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,500 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 30.0 | 0.1 | 32.9 | -2.1 | 0.91 | 21.4% | 58.8% | 18 | 28 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,100 | $8,600 | $15,900 | 42.8 | -1.6 | 33.1 | -0.6 | 1.29 | 17.5% | 57.1% | 27 | 2 |
| Ish Smith | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 19.5 | 1.4 | 19.7 | 0.1 | 0.99 | 24.9% | 53.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are 12-9 and ranked 5th in the Eastern Conference this season. They are five-point favorites in a game with a 214 total. The Pistons are not a team that we have been looking to pick on all year but with the injuries in Philadelphia there is some value we can get exposure to on this slate.
Ben Simmons has been quite disappointing lately coming off an injury and is now only $9,600. This price just feels too cheap for a player of his caliber and someone that I want to get exposure to with all the Sixers injuries. Embiid rested on Thursday for precautionary reasons and I would expect him to play today – especially after all the trash talk he said towards Drummond. $9,700 is a fair price for him but I think I would try and find the extra $700 for Cousins. Embiid has a team high 28.2% usage rate but if Davis sits I think paying up for Cousins makes more sense. I still like Embiid here, but I don’t think he will be on my main lineups throughout the industry.
T.J. McConnell going down would make you think that Bayless would benefit the most. Bayless will see more minutes, but his production is still not great at that price. JJ Redick is another guy I can’t play because he should draw Avery Bradley defense all game. Saric, however, is still too cheap and has upside at his price but he doesn’t see a huge uptick in minutes with McConnell out and the return of Embiid will hurt his fantasy production. Covington is a better fit for a fast paced game environment and this is not a great one against a Pistons team ranked 22nd in pace. Despite all the injuries this seems like a spot where just Simmons and Embiid are in play for me on the Sixers side of the ball.
Notable Injuries TJ McConnell (out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $10,400 | $9,600 | $17,500 | 46.0 | 3.0 | 35.4 | 2.9 | 1.30 | 25.0% | 52.7% | 13 | 21 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,500 | $5,300 | $11,900 | 24.8 | -2.3 | 33.1 | -0.4 | 0.75 | 18.0% | 56.7% | 12 | 22 |
| Robert Covington | $6,300 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 30.3 | -5.6 | 31.4 | -0.6 | 0.96 | 16.1% | 62.7% | 23 | 10 |
| Dario Saric | $6,500 | $5,400 | $11,200 | 22.4 | 7.7 | 27.9 | 2.8 | 0.80 | 16.4% | 49.6% | 7 | 29 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,500 | $9,700 | $18,200 | 44.8 | 2.2 | 29.6 | 1.3 | 1.51 | 28.2% | 57.5% | 7 | 5 |
| Amir Johnson | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 16.1 | 1.2 | 15.0 | -0.4 | 1.07 | 12.7% | 53.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Jerryd Bayless | $4,000 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.6 | -1.4 | 27.8 | -4.7 | 0.60 | 13.0% | 57.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons
Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid
Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Ben McLemore | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 26 | 9 | 14 | 18 | DvP | 17 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 25 | 18 | 27 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 14 | 6 | 26 | 19 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzles recently fired their head coach and are not only on a 10-game losing streak but are 0-2 under his watch. To be fair both games were against the Spurs but so far it has not been the best start for new Head Coach JB Bickerstaff. The Grizzles also cross the Cavaliers at the wrong time as they are playing their best basketball. Since the start of their win streak they are ranked 4th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are 11-point road underdogs here but will get a slight bump in pace against the 11th fastest paced team in the league.
The Grizzles are still without Mike Conley but Mario Chalmers, Chandler Parsons and Brandan Wright all returned from injury on Friday. There is a chance some of them sit on the second night of a back-to-back but if all of them play that will hurt some of the potential value. Tyreke Evans draws a great matchup against JR Smith defense and under Bickerstaff we should expect him to start most nights. He struggled last night against the Spurs but that’s kind of expected. Evans is safe for 30 minutes and has a ton of upside at $6,900. Marc Gasol is part of the reason Fizzdale got shipped out of town because he wasn’t getting along with the coach. Gasol is $7,900 and has done well in Conley’s absence. The Cavs are ranked 18th in the league at defending the center which makes Gasol a secondary play for me. The problem is that there are a bunch of centers and forwards that I think are better plays on this slate. This somewhat fast pace game will benefit Memphis and one guy it should help is Jamychal Green. I think he is viable on both sites, but I prefer him on DraftKings for $4,700. Besides last night’s terrible outing he had 20 or more DraftKings points in his last seven games. This is a good matchup and I think he is a secondary value on this slate.
Notable Injuries Mike Conley (out) and Brandan Wright (questionable
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 98.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.1 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $6,900 | $6,900 | $13,100 | 31.4 | 0.6 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 1.10 | 25.9% | 58.9% | 22 | 5 |
| Ben McLemore | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 11.5 | 3.4 | 19.2 | 2.8 | 0.60 | 16.5% | 45.3% | 26 | 25 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.6 | -5.2 | 29.7 | 1.3 | 0.63 | 12.7% | 53.0% | 9 | 18 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 19.3 | 4.1 | 24.9 | 5.2 | 0.78 | 14.2% | 71.2% | 14 | 27 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,400 | $7,900 | $14,400 | 38.9 | -6.3 | 34.4 | -0.6 | 1.13 | 24.4% | 52.8% | 18 | 19 |
| Mario Chalmers | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,400 | 20.8 | 0.4 | 24.8 | 3.0 | 0.84 | 18.3% | 47.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jamychal Green and Tyreke Evans
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have been dominant of late as they are riding a ten game winning streak. This team has dealt with some growing pains but that’s nothing the best player in the league can’t handle. They are 11-point home favorites with one of the highest totals on the main slate. The Cavs are ranked 11th in pace and draw a pace down matchup against Memphis, who ranks dead last in pace.
LeBron James is in play on any slate – the question with him is do we think he is the star that we want to pay up for on this slate? I think I would prefer to pay up for Simmons or Cousins (if Davis is out) on this slate, but LeBron is right there with them. Point LeBron is always in play and I think he ends up being on my list, but I don’t know if he will make it on my main team. I will list LeBron as a secondary play, but I like spending my money in other ways. Kevin Love had back-to-back performances of 49 or more DraftKings points but in a matchup against Marc Gasol I will not be paying $7,700 for him. The Grizzles are ranked 5th against opposing Centers and are a strong defensive team. I don’t think I will get exposure to any other Cavaliers but LeBron James on this slate. He is clearly the only guy I think we should be playing on the Cavs today. I don’t like the pace of this game and many of the other options are too risky for to me. JR Smith, Jeff Green and Wade all can have big games out of nowhere but I don’t believe this is a spot where one of them outperforms the other.
Notable Injuries Iman Shumpert (out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (4 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 ( of 14)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 0.53 | 10.6% | 63.5% | 17 | 19 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,900 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 16.7 | 2.5 | 30.8 | 3.9 | 0.54 | 12.4% | 48.5% | 6 | 14 |
| LeBron James | $12,100 | $11,400 | $21,900 | 53.7 | 5.3 | 37.0 | -3.9 | 1.45 | 29.7% | 65.7% | 6 | 6 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 15.1 | -3.8 | 25.9 | -2.2 | 0.58 | 13.4% | 52.8% | 11 | 26 |
| Kevin Love | $8,100 | $7,700 | $14,600 | 35.5 | 0.2 | 29.4 | -1.2 | 1.21 | 22.3% | 61.0% | 5 | 19 |
| Dwyane Wade | $6,300 | $5,600 | $10,200 | 24.9 | 3.2 | 23.5 | 2.8 | 1.06 | 23.0% | 48.6% | N/A | N/A |