NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 24th

Jump to Page 1 2


Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers – 5:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 217.0 Article Image Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Implied Team Total 103.5 Implied Team Total 113.5
Pace Projection +/- 2.2 Pace Projection +/- 1.4
Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Jonathon Simmons Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 19 16 16 12 DvP 30 27 24 25 19
DRPM Rat. 1 24 1 23 2 DRPM Rat. 19 27 30 25 6

Orlando Magic

I am going to start off by saying that I am happy this game is not on the main slate. This would be a great game to target and be a bit of a headache with Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon on minutes restrictions. I don’t know if they will be on them again but if you are playing a slate with them on it, this will be important news. I am going to break down this game under the assumption that you are playing them on a one-game slate on FanDuel or DraftKings. This is going to be a fast-paced game and we should expect a lot of fantasy points to be scored on both sides of the ball. This game has a 217-implied total with the Magic as 10-point road underdogs.

Nikola Vucevic has historically had big games against the Philadelphia 76ers, averaging 43.25 fantasy points in 17 games. That is four fantasy points more than his season average and the Sixers just so happen to be his former team who he got shipped out of town for (Andrew Bynum of all people). Looking back, it’s a funny trade but they did end up with Embiid and Simmons after trusting the process. Sorry for the trip down memory lane but let’s get back on track with DFS analysis. If Vucevic is not on a minute’s restriction I think he is a good play and one you can get exposure to. I don’t love paying for Aaron Gordon here and even if he has no minute’s restriction I will likely fade. I have to take a stand somewhere on a one game slate so that would someone that I don’t play because I don’t love the matchup.

My two favorite value plays on the Magic would be Jonathon Simmons and Shelvin Mack. They are not the greatest plays in the world but if you need a cheap value play on Orlando those are the main two I would look at. They both see a healthy amount of usage with the second team and I think one of them will be a solid play. There is never a ton of value on two-game slates but if I had to pick those are the two on the Magic side of the ball I would target.

Notable Injuries Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon (possible minutes restriction)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (14 of 16)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.1 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
D.J. Augustin 16.9 6.3 21.0 6.7 0.80 18.5% 1 11 1
Evan Fournier 27.8 2.3 32.3 -0.3 0.86 21.0% 16 19 24
Jonathon Simmons 22.5 -2.6 28.9 0.6 0.78 19.5% 13 16 1
Aaron Gordon 34.6 -12.1 34.0 -9.4 1.02 21.2% 8 16 23
Nikola Vucevic 37.9 0.8 29.9 -5.5 1.27 23.1% 6 12 2
Mario Hezonja 17.3 19.8 19.7 11.7 0.88 16.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic (if no minutes limit)

Secondary Plays – Jonathon Simmons and Shelvin Mack


Philadelphia 76ers

I am going to break this game down like it is a one-game slate. The Sixers get a nice fast paced game here and come into it as 10-point home favorites. If I had to pick a team that was my favorite to target this would be my favorite team to play.

The Magic can’t defend any position, plain and simple. This means loading up on a guy like Joel Embiid makes a ton of sense. He is the most expensive option on the slate and is for good reason. He will likely have a lot of ownership and if you were going to put anyone in your MVP 1.5 multiplier position on FanDuel, Embiid is your guy. Ben Simmons has been great too and it is likely tough to play both Simmons and Embiid on the same team. For that reason alone, I must take a stand and I think Simmons is going to be a fade for me. I prefer Embiid more in this matchup and think that he is the guy on the Sixers that you want the most exposure to.

I don’t love Dario Saric and Robert Covington on these one game slates, but I think they are both in play. They are not guys that I want to jam into my lineups but are plays that you can mix throughout your teams. I much prefer to look at JJ Redick and T.J. McConnell as interesting value plays. Redick seems like the safe one that I have the most confidence in and should do well in this spot. T.J. McConnell is the play that I think makes sense in those big field tournaments that could have a massive game. We know how bad the Magic are defensively and how McConnell can bust out for big games. At his price not many guys have his kind of upside and I think he is an interesting play.

Notable Injuries None

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.0 (4 of 16)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons 41.4 7.5 34.9 -2.1 1.19 23.0% 27 30 19
J.J. Redick 25.8 -0.4 31.9 -3.0 0.81 19.4% 25 27 27
Robert Covington 27.4 -7.0 32.3 -2.4 0.85 15.3% 29 24 30
Dario Saric 28.0 2.0 30.8 1.0 0.91 18.3% 17 25 25
Joel Embiid 44.9 8.0 31.4 -2.4 1.43 27.8% 24 19 6
T.J. McConnell 21.0 3.6 24.5 1.6 0.86 15.4% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – JJ Redick, T.J. McConnell and Dario Saric


Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics New York Knicks
Article Image Vegas Total 208.0 Article Image Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Implied Team Total 106.0 Implied Team Total 102.0
Pace Projection +/- -0.5 Pace Projection +/- -1.1
Projected Starters Kyrie Irving Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Al Horford Aron Baynes Projected Starters Emmanuel Mudiay Courtney Lee Tim Hardaway Michael Beasley Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 18 14 10 5 DvP 1 4 12 4 8
DRPM Rat. 30 17 16 26 28 DRPM Rat. 22 2 3 3 1

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics are starting to get healthier and come into this game as four-point road favorites. This game has an implied total of 208 and should be one of the less appealing games on the slate. With the return on Marcus Smart the Celtics are starting to become healthier and don’t have the best prices around the industry.

The more and more I keep looking at Boston, the more uninterested I get. I think you can always make an argument for Kyrie Irving at his current price, because if Kyrie gets his shot going he has upside in any matchup. The problem with paying for Kyrie today is that you miss out on other great spend up options, so Kyrie will be a fade for me today. I could see Brown, Tatum, Smart, Morris or any of these other Celtics wing players having a big game at their price but I don’t think it is necessary. It just seems like there are too many cooks in the kitchen and if one of those guys end up on the winning lineup I am okay with it. Most the Celtics are going to be fades because its too crowded in Boston and there are just better plays on the board. There is one Celtic that I have some interest in though.

Al Horford is too cheap around the industry and he certainly deserves this price for what he has done recently. The problem is we don’t get Al Horford at $6,600 too often and with Aron Baynes questionable this could be a good spot to jump on Horford. I do worry about the Celtics maybe giving Monroe some more run here to get him acclimated to the offense. If you force me to play a Celtic on this slate, Al Horford would be the guy, making him a secondary play on this slate.

Notable Injuries Aron Baynes (questionable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 (9 of 16)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (16 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $7,900 $8,500 $16,100 38.4 -4.7 32.8 -2.6 1.17 29.5% 19 27 30
Jaylen Brown $5,600 $5,600 $10,800 25.4 -3.5 31.6 0.6 0.80 17.7% 9 18 17
Jayson Tatum $5,200 $5,200 $10,000 25.5 -8.7 31.1 -0.7 0.82 16.0% 26 14 16
Al Horford $6,800 $6,600 $12,600 33.6 -7.3 32.2 -2.7 1.04 17.5% 7 10 26
Aron Baynes $3,800 $3,500 $6,900 15.2 1.0 18.1 -1.4 0.84 14.5% 9 5 28
Marcus Morris $4,800 $5,500 $10,600 21.8 0.6 24.7 4.5 0.88 20.1% N/A N/A N/A
Terry Rozier $6,100 $5,400 $11,900 21.8 5.4 24.2 4.4 0.90 19.5% N/A N/A N/A
Marcus Smart $5,000 $4,800 $9,500 24.4 30.3 0.80 18.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Al Horford


New York Knicks

I’m going to start off talking about the Knicks by saying if you roster ANY Knicks players you are taking a risk because Jeff Hornacek will mess with minutes in any game. They talked about how they are going to play the young players more, so anything can go with this team. We can start things off by discussing the point guard position and who will get more run between Mudiay, Burke or Ntilikina. Jarret Jack played 0 minutes last game, so I think it’s safe to say that he won’t eat into their point guard minutes. The quote I saw from the coach was that he will play the hot hand, so whoever comes out playing well will stay in the game. A matchup against Boston is not appealing and I don’t want to play point guard roulette. I think we can find better value plays on this slate, so I don’t have to take a risk on the Knicks but if you like one of these young point guards I won’t talk you out of it. One of them should crush value, I just can’t predict who the hot hand is going to be or what the coach is going to do. If you force me to pick one to play I will lean with Trey Burke because he is not afraid to shoot the ball and was the hot hand last game.

In our small one game sample size of the Knicks new youth movement, Courtney Lee played 14 minutes, Enes Kanter 21 minutes and Michael Beasley 23 minutes. These are all players who we might have considered before the All-Star break, but I think they are easy fades unless we hear they will get normal run again. Tim Hardaway Jr. is getting paid a ton of money and played 35 minutes in his last game. He’s a young player as well and I think the 35 minutes he saw could be real going forward. Hardaway Jr. is probably the safest play on the Knicks, but I don’t love the matchup. I think he is a nice secondary option on this slate but again I don’t want to overexpose myself to a team that plays 12 players and toys around with minutes.

Notable Injuries Kristaps Porzingis (out for season)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (13 of 16)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,400 $4,700 15.9 5.7 18.2 3.8 0.87 23.0% 2 1 22
Courtney Lee $3,800 $4,500 24.0 -6.6 32.6 -7.2 0.74 16.7% 2 4 2
Tim Hardaway $6,500 $6,400 28.4 0.7 32.6 0.9 0.87 22.0% 2 12 3
Michael Beasley $6,400 $6,300 22.9 11.3 20.7 11.7 1.11 24.5% 13 4 3
Enes Kanter $6,800 $6,800 30.7 7.1 26.1 2.7 1.18 18.8% 7 8 1
Kyle O’Quinn $4,800 $4,000 19.4 2.9 16.7 1.5 1.16 15.3% N/A N/A N/A
Frank Ntilikina $3,700 $3,700 13.8 -2.7 20.1 2.6 0.69 16.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – One of the Knicks value point guards ( Trey Burke, Frank Ntilikina and Emmanuel Mudiay)

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr.


Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Miami Heat
Article Image Vegas Total 195.0 Article Image Vegas Total 195.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Implied Team Total 93.8 Implied Team Total 101.3
Pace Projection +/- -2.4 Pace Projection +/- -3.2
Projected Starters Andrew Harrison Tyreke Evans Dillon Brooks JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Projected Starters Goran Dragic Tyler Johnson Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 5 12 3 6 6 DvP 17 20 7 12 1
DRPM Rat. 21 16 6 2 1 DRPM Rat. 21 6 17 28 10

Memphis Grizzlies

We go from one uninteresting game to the next uninteresting game with the Memphis Grizzles taking on the Miami Heat! This game has a 195 point team total with the Memphis Grizzles as 7.5 point road underdogs. This is the second night of a back to back for both teams and a battle of two of the bottom three teams in pace. If there was one game to avoid on this slate it would be this one, but the problem is there could be some good value in this game.

Tyreke Evans did not return to Friday’s game because of a rib injury. I read on Friday that the Grizzles are going to dial back on Evans and Gasol’s minutes eventually, but they said it’s not time yet. Hearing that news makes me think that they won’t rush Tyreke Evans back for this game and we should expect him to sit. If he does sit, I think it’s a great time to go back to Andrew Harrison. I understand he was chalky yesterday, but with the lack of value many people took the risk that Mario Chalmers would not play. Chalmers being ruled in hurt his value a ton and many people won’t want to go back to Harrison. If Tyreke sits that will be a big bump for Harrison and he should be a good secondary value play. Chalmers was not productive last night but he did play 25 minutes. If Evans sits, we could possibly see him be a decent value in a revenge spot against his former team. I doubt I would play Chalmers, but you guys know I love to mention revenge! To summarize this scenario, if Evans sits I think Harrison is a good value play that we should look to get exposure to.

Marc Gasol has just not been the same this year. It’s clear the Grizzles are struggling and not trying to win a ton of games. Even if Evans sits, I don’t think we need to mess around with Marc Gasol or any of the other Memphis frontcourt players. There are just way better plays on this slate and for the most part we should try and avoid Memphis.

Notable Injuries Tyreke Evans, Wayne Selden and Chandler Parsons (out)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.2 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 93.8 (16 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (16 of 16)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (28 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Andrew Harrison $5,500 $4,700 $8,500 17.7 7.3 22.5 4.4 0.79 18.6% 3 5 21
Tyreke Evans $7,900 $7,600 $14,500 34.9 -2.0 31.0 -2.6 1.13 27.7% 5 12 16
Dillon Brooks $4,500 $4,100 $8,700 16.7 4.0 28.1 2.5 0.59 13.9% 13 3 6
JaMychal Green $4,700 $4,400 $8,800 22.3 2.0 26.4 -0.9 0.84 15.8% 11 6 2
Marc Gasol $7,600 $7,200 $13,700 37.7 -5.2 33.9 -2.6 1.11 23.6% 7 6 1
Jarell Martin $4,300 $4,100 $8,900 14.9 2.2 20.1 4.4 0.74 13.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers (if Tyreke Evans is out)


Miami Heat

There is some injury news on Miami that could be attractive to some people. Kelly Olynyk was doubtful Friday night and I’m assuming the same going into Saturday’s game. If Olynyk is out that will be a boost for Bam Adebayo and James Johnson who should soak up those frontcourt minutes that Olynyk occupies. The problem with the Heat is that they can’t run Whiteside and Bam on the court together too often.

This injury affects the Heat a ton and gives the biggest bump to James Johnson. James Johnson is not one of my favorite values on the slate, but I think he can be a good secondary value today. Dragic and Richardson have been impressive this year and had great games yesterday. I don’t love this spot for them though and I think they are easy fades today. If I key in on anyone in this game, it’s primarily James Johnson to take advantage of his value with Kelly Olynyk out.

Notable Injuries Kelly Olynyk (out)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.5 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (12 of 16)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.2 (30 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,700 $6,300 $12,700 30.0 1.0 31.8 1.2 0.94 25.4% 18 17 21
Tyler Johnson $4,400 $4,500 $9,200 22.3 0.5 29.3 1.4 0.76 17.4% 12 20 6
Josh Richardson $5,500 $5,300 $11,900 26.2 0.1 34.1 -1.0 0.77 16.6% 2 7 17
Justise Winslow $3,700 $3,800 $7,000 17.7 -2.7 23.2 -0.7 0.76 14.0% 21 12 28
Hassan Whiteside $7,500 $6,700 $12,800 35.2 0.9 25.7 0.9 1.37 20.4% 1 1 10
Dwyane Wade $4,500 $4,400 $9,100 23.7 -3.3 23.2 -1.1 1.02 22.9% N/A N/A N/A
James Johnson $5,100 $4,600 $8,900 24.6 -2.9 26.6 -1.5 0.93 18.4% N/A N/A N/A
Wayne Ellington $3,700 $3,900 $7,600 17.8 -0.9 26.6 3.6 0.67 16.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – James Johnson


Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors
Article Image Vegas Total 234.5 Article Image Vegas Total 234.5
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Implied Team Total 112.8 Implied Team Total 121.8
Pace Projection +/- 3.1 Pace Projection +/- -0.8
Projected Starters Russell Westbrook Josh Huestis Paul George Carmelo Anthony Steven Adams Projected Starters Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 15 23 8 24 22 DvP 3 17 6 13 2
DRPM Rat. 21 7 24 2 4 DRPM Rat. 5 8 8 27 20

Oklahoma City Thunder

This is the game of the slate coming in with a 234.5 team total! The Warriors and Thunder is always a fun watch with Russell Westbrook jawing back and fourth with former teammate Kevin Durant. This game will not only be an entertaining game, but it will be one of the best games to target in DFS tonight.

Russell Westbrook is the top spend up option on this slate. In his two games this season against Golden State, he is averaging 62.4 DraftKings points and we all know how much he hates Kevin Durant. If you are spending your money on anyone he is the guy that you want, plain and simple. The next option to consider on the Thunder is Paul George. I really don’t think he is viable on DraftKings because I think there are other plays that I prefer at his price. On top of that if you pay for George and Westbrook on DraftKings it leaves you with around $4800 per position. On FanDuel I think you will have the money for George and I will make him a secondary play over there. You also must play two small forwards on FanDuel, making him more viable there. I just don’t like where that leaves you on DraftKings and would prefer to play the supreme value plays at SF.

The price of Carmelo Anthony is really tempting around the industry for $5900 and $5700. I rarely play Melo and it has been profitable for most the year but in this matchup, I think he’s in play. I am going to have Anthony in my player pool and will list him as a secondary play. I do think there could be better plays around the same price range though that leads me to stay away from Melo. The last guy to mention on the Thunder is Steven Adams. Adams has fared well in this matchup so far in two games providing 33 DraftKings points per game. I always like correlating Adams with Westbrook in tournaments and I think that’s a good idea again today. If you do that though, make sure to run it back with Durant or Curry because if you play two OKC players, running it back with Warriors makes sense.

Notable Injuries None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.2 (3 of 16)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (2 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $11,200 $11,600 54.0 2.3 36.2 1.9 1.49 34.7% 13 15 21
Josh Huestis $3,500 $3,400 8.0 -3.7 14.5 0.9 0.55 8.1% 4 23 7
Paul George $8,800 $9,300 39.0 8.6 36.5 0.3 1.07 23.4% 9 8 24
Carmelo Anthony $5,700 $5,900 28.9 0.7 32.3 2.4 0.89 22.0% 10 24 2
Steven Adams $7,000 $6,900 31.3 3.0 32.4 2.6 0.97 14.7% 19 22 4
Jerami Grant $3,900 $3,900 17.2 3.9 20.7 2.5 0.83 14.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony


Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have the highest implied total on the slate with a 121.75 total and are 9-point home favorites. This game has a massive 234.5 team total and is one that you are going to want to get exposure to.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook clearly still have some bad blood between them and should be a game that you would expect Durant to get up for. In Durant’s two games against the Thunder this season he is only averaging 39.4 DraftKings points. That is concerning especially at $9,700 and going up against Paul George defense. If you look at his last two games against the Thunder, he shot fine, but the assists and rebounds were well below his season averages. I think its best to take advantage of Durant’s price around the industry and give him the benefit of the doubt. Kevin Durant is going to be an elite play for me on this slate.

Stephen Curry is still a good value around the industry at $9,500 and $9,700. I think he is a good play on both sites, but I likely will get more exposure to him over on FanDuel. The big debate will be what to do with Curry, Westbrook, Damian Lillard and the value point guard options. When Steph Curry is hot I typically don’t like to fade him, especially in a 234.5 total. Curry is going to be an elite play for me on this slate but again, it is going to be tough to decide between Westbrook, Curry and Lillard today.

If you want a cheap way to get exposure to this game I don’t hate going to Klay Thompson. I like rostering Klay more than the average person but seeing him at only $6,100 on DraftKings is crazy. I think he makes sense as a secondary tournament play because he has a ton of upside at that price and he is a good way to get cheap exposure to this game. I’m expecting Draymond Green to play this game despite the shoulder injury he has been dealing with. He is not my favorite play on FanDuel for $8,300 but I like him on DraftKings for $7,800. He has triple double upside in almost any matchup and if he fits your construction I don’t mind it. I just prefer Curry and Durant which means Draymond will have to be a secondary play. There looks like to be enough cheap value where I don’t have to mix and match any of the Warriors bench value options. I will likely stick to mixing in the main core four of the Warriors throughout my lineups rather than trying to find cheap bench options.

Notable Injuries Jordan Bell (out)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 115.8 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 121.8 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.0 (5 of 16)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,500 $9,900 44.6 -4.2 32.9 -2.3 1.36 27.7% 10 3 5
Klay Thompson $6,300 $6,100 30.5 -7.0 34.1 -3.0 0.90 20.3% 12 17 8
Kevin Durant $10,300 $9,700 47.4 -5.1 34.5 -3.7 1.37 25.9% 12 6 8
Draymond Green $8,300 $7,800 37.3 7.0 32.7 0.8 1.14 17.1% 18 13 27
Zaza Pachulia $3,500 $3,500 15.6 -2.4 14.7 -3.2 1.06 14.5% 2 2 20
Andre Iguodala $4,100 $3,600 18.1 -1.7 25.5 -0.9 0.71 11.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson and Draymond Green


Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Utah Jazz
Article Image Vegas Total 206.0 Article Image Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Implied Team Total 99.3 Implied Team Total 106.8
Pace Projection +/- -2.0 Pace Projection +/- -2.3
Projected Starters Dennis Smith J.J. Barea Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Projected Starters Ricky Rubio Donovan Mitchell Joe Ingles Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 1 9 7 15 DvP 20 7 13 19 18
DRPM Rat. 6 12 7 7 1 DRPM Rat. 29 25 25 29 21

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs are coming off a second night of a back to back and traveling to Utah. I know this is right after the all-star break but it’s not the easiest travel for a team. Dallas comes into this game as 3-point road underdogs. This is not a team that I have a lot of faith in especially after losing by more than 20 points to the Lakers just last night. Utah is also a tough place to play and I sort of think this could be a difficult game for a young Dallas team.

Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes are two main guys to look at on Dallas. The problem with them on this slate is that I already have a lot of interest in other small forward and point guard options. I understand that they have cheap prices but why would I play them when there are better plays on the board and on the second night of a back to back in Utah? I understand if you think the price is too cheap on these two, but I think they are unnecessary. I prefer J.J. Barea coming off the bench and with him in the starting lineup, I don’t think I need to be playing him. A matchup against the Jazz frontcourt is not an easy one and I don’t expect guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber to be that successful. To summarize the Dallas side of the ball in one sentence, their prices might be cheap but there are better plays, and this is the wrong slate to target Dallas.

Notable Injuries None

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (15 of 16)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (25 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Dennis Smith $6,400 $6,400 $13,200 27.6 1.7 29.3 3.5 0.94 26.7% 9 13 6
J.J. Barea $5,500 $5,600 $10,100 24.0 5.2 23.2 3.5 1.03 24.8% 16 1 12
Wesley Matthews $5,200 $5,000 $9,800 23.7 3.7 34.1 -4.3 0.70 16.3% 9 9 7
Harrison Barnes $6,200 $6,000 $12,000 30.3 -4.1 34.4 -5.1 0.88 21.5% 6 7 7
Dirk Nowitzki $5,400 $5,200 $10,600 24.2 8.1 25.1 2.2 0.97 18.7% 3 15 1
Dwight Powell $6,300 $5,700 $11,900 18.4 13.7 19.8 7.9 0.93 13.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


Utah Jazz

The Jazz finally had their 12-game winning streak snapped last night, losing by 20 to the Portland Trailblazers. I expect them to bounce back here tonight though against a young and struggling Dallas Mavericks team. Dallas might play at a slow pace, but they are so bad there are still spots where I think we can take advantage of them.

The best way to describe Dallas is “horrific frontcourt.” They are so bad against opposing bigs and proved that once again last night allowing a triple double to Julius Randle. Rudy Gobert had a big game against Nurkic in a blowout can you imagine what he could do here? This is a great spot for Gobert who way is too cheap on DraftKings at $7,300. I don’t love the $8,000 price on FanDuel and don’t think he is an elite play over there, but I think he is an elite on at that price on DraftKings. In Gobert’s one game against Dallas this year he had 57 DraftKings points! I am not expecting that again, but I think 40 fantasy points, or more is happening tonight and at $7,300 make sure you get exposure to him.

Derrick Favors has been good since the Rodney Hood trade. This trade allowed him to thrive more with the second team and in a matchup against Dallas he should be a safe play. On DraftKings I would rather just find the money from Favors to Gobert because it’s only $1,000 but on FanDuel there is almost a $2,000 difference and you must play two power forwards. I think Favors is a better play on FanDuel and I would look to get my exposure to him over there.

Ricky Rubio was on a minute’s restriction yesterday and only played 19 minutes. I know Rubio was on a tear before his injury but until we hear he won’t have a minute’s restriction and see him round into form, I think he is a good fade especially at this price. Donovan Mitchell is seeing a high usage and with Rubio on a minute’s restriction we can expect him to be the primary ball handler. Mitchell sees too many shots and has too high of a usage that we have to consider him. Mitchell is an elite play for me in this matchup and if he knocks down his shots he should have a big game. I could see this being a good low owned tournament play and someone that I wouldn’t fade if I was building multiple lineups. Joe Ingles is simply just way too overpriced now. I know people talked him up yesterday but until that price dips down below $5,500 I don’t think we need to be rostering him.

Notable Injuries Ricky Rubio (minutes restriction)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (8 of 16)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (27 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $7,400 $6,100 $12,600 27.1 6.4 29.3 -4.6 0.93 21.1% 26 20 29
Donovan Mitchell $7,700 $8,000 $14,600 32.2 3.0 32.1 4.6 1.00 25.7% 5 7 25
Joe Ingles $6,500 $6,200 $11,400 24.0 9.4 30.7 2.8 0.78 15.0% 22 13 25
Derrick Favors $6,100 $6,300 $11,000 27.3 3.4 28.2 2.1 0.97 16.6% 4 19 29
Rudy Gobert $8,000 $7,300 $13,700 33.6 1.4 31.0 3.6 1.08 14.4% 26 18 21
Jae Crowder $4,600 $4,700 $8,800 16.8 6.5 25.6 2.0 0.66 13.9% N/A N/A N/A
Royce O’Neale $4,600 $4,600 $10,300 12.0 9.6 14.8 14.4 0.81 14.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors and Donovan Mitchell


Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author