NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 10th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets – 5:00 PM ET
| Phoenix Suns | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Devin Booker | Josh Jackson | Dragan Bender | Tyson Chandler | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 13 | 25 | 15 | 17 | DvP | 30 | 30 | 20 | 30 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 6 | |
Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries
Devin Booker (Questionable), Tyson Chandler (Questionable), Josh Jackson (Questionable), T.J. Warren (Doubtful)
Hello Grinders. We have five games this Saturday but the 5pm EST Suns/Hornets game is not on the main slate. I will still briefly cover it in case you’re playing a single-game format of that game.
The Suns are a hot mess right now. Devin Booker is questionable with a triceps injury, Tyson Chandler is questionable with a shoulder injury, Josh Jackson is questionable with a knee injury and T.J. Warren is doubtful with a back injury. In all honesty, you should be glad this game is not on the main slate because there are way too many variables here. Still, I’ll do my best to run through some scenarios.
If T.J. Warren does miss the game and Josh Jackson is cleared to go, Jackson is a good play. He was the chalk on Thursday but left the game early with his injury, forcing all of us to tweet out money-burning gifs. When Warren is off the court per CourtIQ, Jackson has a 26.9% usage rate and averages almost a fantasy point per minute. Devin Booker also leads the team with a 33.5% usage rate with Warren off the court and would make a fantastic play, if he suits up.
If somehow Warren and Jackson miss the game, we may see Davon Reed draw the start. Reed replaced Jackson when he left the game on Thursday. Reed failed to impress, hitting just 1-of-7 shots in his 16 minutes. He’s not a player I’m excited about but if the Suns lack healthy bodies, he should see plenty of run.
If Devin Booker were to miss the game, Troy Daniels may move into the starting lineup. Daniels played 30 minutes and took 15 shots (12 of which were from beyond the arc) in Thursday’s blowout loss, so he becomes very enticing in a single-game format.
The main beneficiary in all of this would probably be Elfrid Payton, as he’d be relied upon to carry the offense. He’s firmly in play regardless of Booker’s and Jackson’s statues. The only concern would be whether the Suns could keep this game close. In the blowout loss on Thursday, Payton only played 30 minutes and Shaquille Harrison was able to scoop up 20 minutes in garbage time as well. Harrison could also pick up more minutes at the shooting guard position if Booker were out as the Suns could run two-point guard sets.
Last point I’ll touch on is Tyson Chandler. If he’s out, you know the drill – chalk Alex Len enters the picture. I think there’s merit to fading Len in these tournaments if you can tolerate some risk as he’s been in poor form lately. Over his last six games, he hasn’t scored more than seven real life points, so he’s mired in a min-slump. Marquese Chriss would be the pivot off of Len, who has played decently over his last three games and has seen at least 24 minutes in back-to-back games now. Alec Peters has also entered the rotation lately and would be the darkhorse sleeper.
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 104.4 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | 31.5 | 3.5 | 29.5 | 2.8 | 1.07 | 21.8% | 18 | 14 | 18 | |||
| Devin Booker | 37.8 | 3.5 | 34.6 | 1.4 | 1.09 | 28.6% | 5 | 13 | 12 | |||
| Josh Jackson | 20.8 | 4.4 | 23.8 | 2.9 | 0.87 | 21.4% | 26 | 25 | 10 | |||
| Dragan Bender | 14.6 | 2.7 | 24.2 | 9.3 | 0.60 | 10.9% | 23 | 15 | 13 | |||
| Tyson Chandler | 21.0 | -3.7 | 25.1 | -3.9 | 0.84 | 9.1% | 10 | 17 | 9 | |||
| Marquese Chriss | 18.4 | -0.4 | 20.5 | -2.7 | 0.90 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Devin Booker (if he plays), Troy Daniels (if Devin Booker is out), Josh Jackson (if T.J. Warren is out), Elfrid Payton
Secondary Plays – Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, Alex Len (if Tyson Chandler is out), Shaquille Harrison (if Booker is out), Davon Reed (if Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren are out)
Charlotte Hornets
Notable Injuries
Michael Carter-Williams (Out For Season)
With Michael Carter-Williams out for the season, Malik Monk will now handle back-up point guard duties for the Hornets. The Hornets are riding a five-game losing streak but face the Suns, who are last in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. Should the Suns be missing Tyson Chandler and/or T.J. Warren, this would be an even easier matchup for the Hornets. This is a clear get-well spot for the Hornets, who are fading fast from the playoff picture.
The Suns rank among the bottom six in DvP for every position except the small forward position, meaning everyone is firmly in play. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum have the best matchups, as the Suns are last in DvP for their positions. Dwight Howard would benefit from Chandler’s absence. Even secondary pieces like Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Frank Kaminsky are options against the Suns. The Suns have been awful against power forwards but given how much Marvin Williams has struggled lately, I have more interest in Kaminsky than Williams. To be fair, Williams played through a migraine in their last game so that may be impacting his performance. Jeremy Lamb would be the main target of mine if searching for a bench player but he does cost more than the starters on FanDuel.
Cody Zeller and Malik Monk are fine punt options to save salary on a one-game slate, especially if you think this game may blow out and the second unit sees extended minutes. Monk is still fairly raw as a rookie but he did put up a 13/5/3 line against the Nets in just 21 minutes on Thursday, and he now gets to feast on the league’s friendliest team against point guards.
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.4 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | 37.6 | -4.1 | 34.8 | -1.3 | 1.08 | 27.1% | 30 | 30 | 23 | |||
| Nicolas Batum | 27.4 | 4.7 | 31.6 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 18.4% | 28 | 30 | 28 | |||
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 18.8 | -6.9 | 25.3 | -4.5 | 0.74 | 14.9% | 20 | 20 | 26 | |||
| Marvin Williams | 18.9 | -3.9 | 25.8 | -2.0 | 0.73 | 12.9% | 30 | 30 | 27 | |||
| Dwight Howard | 36.6 | -5.6 | 30.4 | -4.1 | 1.20 | 19.4% | 22 | 25 | 6 | |||
| Frank Kaminsky | 19.3 | 0.2 | 23.2 | 1.0 | 0.83 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||
| Jeremy Lamb | 24.2 | -6.4 | 24.6 | -2.4 | 0.98 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nicolas Batum, Dwight Howard, Malik Monk (if needing a punt), Kemba Walker
Secondary Plays – Frank Kaminsky, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeremy Lamb, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 6 | DvP | 13 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 8 | 13 | 2 | 21 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
None
Coming off a dominant win against the Pelicans that snapped their 10-game winning streak, the Wizards now head into Miami to take on the Heat. While this is a back-to-back for the Wizards, they carried a 20-point lead into the 4th quarter on Friday, which allowed the starters to get some rest. Otto Porter entered Friday as a game-time decision but finished with 19 points over 26 minutes. Assuming he suffered no setbacks, he should be good to go once again. Overall, 12 players saw playing time on Friday for the Wizards with nobody playing more than 33 minutes (Kelly Oubre).
On paper, this is not a good spot for the Wizards. The Heat rank among the top 11 in DvP for every position and they are finally healthy. However, this is a four-game slate so you’re going to have to take some stands you may be uncomfortable with. These two teams actually met back on Tuesday but the game went into overtime, which is why several of the players saw minutes in the mid-to-high 30s. It’s interesting to note that the Wizards went small at times, using Markieff Morris and Mike Scott as their bigs in lieu of Marcin Gortat, who only played 23 minutes. I believe many of us (myself included) expected this to be a Gortat vs Whiteside game, but it ended up being a small-ball game. Back when these two teams met in November, Gortat played 26 and 27 minutes in their two meetings. This is all to say that the Wizards have the personnel to matchup against Whiteside using Gortat, or to matchup against a Winslow/Olynyk lineup using Morris and Scott. I’m not going to pretend like I know what either team plans to do on Saturday, but it makes me hesitant to use Gortat or Whiteside in cash. Instead, I think they are better used in tournaments given they could be phased off the court if the game gets small.
Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris and Tomas Satoransky are my main targets on this team. They are fairly affordable across the industry and I would target them in that order factoring in price. Beal is cheaper on FanDuel ($8,300) than on DraftKings ($8,800), and that’s important too since you have to roster two shooting guards on FanDuel. I would prefer getting my Beal exposure there given those factors, but that’s not to say you can’t play him on DraftKings.
I will admit that Gortat’s price on DraftKings ($4,500) and FanDuel ($3,900) is incredibly tempting given how dirt cheap that is. If using him allows you create a team that you love, I won’t talk you out of it, but just keep in mind what I mentioned above about the potential small-ball lineups. Kelly Oubre and Mike Scott would benefit from small-ball, and both are firmly in-play for tournaments given the small nature of this slate. Scott doesn’t see huge minutes so I would limit him to large-field tournaments as a deep-GPP play.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $5,600 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 16.9 | 4.8 | 20.2 | 9.8 | 0.84 | 15.1% | 3 | 4 | 22 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,300 | $8,800 | $16,700 | 38.3 | 0.7 | 36.7 | 2.6 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| Otto Porter | $7,400 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 31.4 | 6.8 | 32.1 | 2.5 | 0.98 | 17.3% | 13 | 3 | 9 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,700 | 23.1 | 6.9 | 26.9 | 6.9 | 0.86 | 16.2% | 13 | 7 | 14 |
| Marcin Gortat | $3,900 | $4,500 | $9,700 | 23.1 | -5.0 | 25.9 | -4.0 | 0.89 | 13.9% | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,400 | $4,700 | $11,200 | 21.9 | 0.7 | 27.7 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Otto Porter, Tomas Satoransky
Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat, Kelly Oubre (GPP), Mike Scott (Deep GPP)
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
None
The Heat players carry some fairly reasonable price tags across the industry. The problem is that when they are all healthy, like they are now, it’s difficult to pinpoint where the production will come from. Josh Richardson has the easiest matchup on paper as the Wizards rank 24th in DvP against small forwards, so he would be my choice from a metrics standpoint. But the guy that catches my eye the most is Tyler Johnson. Johnson played 38 minutes in that overtime game and finished with 39.75 DraftKings points. That’s not to say he will repeat that performance or get a similar load of minutes, but in their two previous meetings he also played 20 and 31 minutes off the bench, so it’s clear Coach Spoelstra likes utilizing him against the Wizards to help defend Bradley Beal. I’m going to list both Richardson and Johnson as secondary plays because even though I like them, I’m not rushing to start any of my teams with them as building blocks.
Dragic is fine for cash games in this matchup as his price is reasonable across the industry, and I prefer Whiteside in tournaments based on my arguments above. Justise Winslow has been playing incredible lately and has reached 25 or more DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. He profiles more as a tournament play as well given how healthy the Heat roster is, which limits his playing time. Both James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk are viable in tournaments, but your guess is as good as mine which one has the better game. I probably lean Olynyk between the two.
The last guy I’ll mention is Dwyane Wade, who has played well since his trade back to Miami. On FanDuel, shooting guard is an ugly bunch so I think he’s viable in all formats there. It’s easier to overlook him on DraftKings given Josh Richardson is $200 more and Tyler Johnson is $400 less, both of whom I prefer over Wade. So I feel like Wade is a better play on FanDuel where it’s slim pickings over there.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 102.0 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 6)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $6,400 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 31.8 | -0.1 | 0.96 | 25.3% | 10 | 13 | 8 | |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,800 | $4,900 | 22.6 | 2.3 | 29.1 | -1.9 | 0.77 | 17.6% | 6 | 8 | 13 | |
| Josh Richardson | $5,600 | $5,500 | 26.9 | 0.6 | 33.7 | -4.4 | 0.80 | 16.8% | 15 | 24 | 2 | |
| James Johnson | $4,200 | $4,200 | 23.9 | -1.9 | 26.0 | -4.4 | 0.92 | 18.2% | 19 | 1 | 21 | |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,500 | $6,900 | 35.4 | -2.6 | 25.9 | -2.3 | 1.37 | 20.4% | 4 | 3 | 9 | |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,900 | $5,300 | 24.0 | 2.2 | 23.3 | 1.1 | 1.03 | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Justise Winslow | $5,000 | $5,100 | 19.2 | 12.1 | 23.9 | 7.1 | 0.80 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Kelly Olynyk | $4,700 | $4,800 | 22.8 | 1.3 | 23.2 | -2.1 | 0.98 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade (FD)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Richardson, Dwyane Wade (DK), Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow
Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 97.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kobi Simmons | Ben McLemore | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Dwight Powell | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 10 | DvP | 16 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 29 | 25 | 29 | 21 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 15 | 17 | 28 | 10 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries
Tyreke Evans (Questionable), Marc Gasol (Expected to rest), Andrew Harrison (Out), Chandler Parsons (Questionable)
I’ve listed Tyreke Evans and Chandler Parsons as questionable since I haven’t seen an update on their statuses, but both missed Friday’s game so I’m approaching this writeup as if they’re out. The Grizzlies enter Saturday with the lowest implied team total and they got smacked around on Friday by the Utah Jazz, 95-78. Given this is the backend of a back-to-back, it would not surprise me at all if we saw a mass exodus of veterans sitting for this game. Marc Gasol is expected to rest after playing 32 minutes on Friday so I’m treating it as if he’s going to miss the game. JaMychal Green, Deyonta Davis and Ivan Rabb are interesting should Gasol sit.
Jarell Martin returned on Friday after a two-game absence due to a knee injury, but he played 30 minutes on Friday so we need to monitor whether he suits up on Saturday. He’s firmly in-play if given the green light to play on this backend game.
Ben McLemore played 28 minutes on Friday but if you recall, he was surprisingly rested recently so I’m not going to assume he plays. I’m just going to end by saying this – if you play any Grizzlies players, just know you’re playing with fire as this organization is unpredictable.
Without having any idea who is going to suit up and play, I would probably limit my backcourt exposure to Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Dillon Brooks and Kobi Simmons. I’m going to list them as secondary plays as I’d expect a fairly even timeshare but if the Grizzlies become extremely short-handed and we project these guys to get heavy minutes, a case could be made to load up on them as your cheap pieces to fit the Westbrooks of this slate.
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 99.1 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Simmons | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,200 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 16.8 | 5.1 | 0.70 | 15.7% | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| Ben McLemore | $4,600 | $5,400 | $9,400 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 17.9 | 10.8 | 0.69 | 16.0% | 9 | 9 | 25 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,800 | $4,900 | $8,800 | 17.1 | 5.9 | 28.5 | 4.1 | 0.60 | 14.6% | 25 | 10 | 29 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,800 | $7,200 | $13,100 | 23.8 | 11.7 | 27.4 | 6.1 | 0.87 | 16.0% | 7 | 24 | 21 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,600 | $7,500 | $13,400 | 37.8 | 2.4 | 33.9 | 0.0 | 1.11 | 23.5% | 23 | 10 | 4 |
| Jarell Martin | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 15.8 | 15.9 | 21.3 | 12.0 | 0.74 | 13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Xavier Rathan-Mayes | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 22.8 | 0.0 | 26.7 | 0.0 | 0.85 | 22.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
(All this assumes Marc Gasol is indeed out as expected)
Elite Plays – Deyonta Davis, JaMychal Green (FD), Jarell Martin (if he plays with no restrictions)
Secondary Plays – Dillon Brooks, JaMychal Green (DK), Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Ivan Rabb (GPP), Kobi Simmons
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries
Dorian Finney-Smith (Expected to Play), Wesley Matthews (Expected to Play), Nerlens Noel (Out – Rest)
With the Mavericks, we at least have some clarity on their injury situation. Dorian Finney-Smith is expected to play after missing the past four months. I wouldn’t expect him to play many minutes given his lengthy absence so he’s not on my radar. Nerlens Noel will also be rested, which saves us the headache of actually playing him. He surprisingly got 26 minutes in his last game and has to be taken seriously as a factor on the slates he’s on now that the Mavericks seem intent on building up his stock. Lastly, Wesley Matthews is scheduled back, which would shift Yogi Ferrell back to the bench and scale back the minutes of J.J. Barea and Doug McDermott as well.
Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes remain the safest plays on this team, and given they are part of the team’s youth movement, they should continue to see solid minutes. With Nerlens Noel out of the picture on Saturday, I have renewed interest in Dwight Powell. He had been seeing his minutes trend down with the resurgence of Noel, but it’s possible he gets a few extra minutes on Saturday. I would like him even more if Marc Gasol does rest.
Lastly, I have to at least mention Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk has been solid lately, and he’s doing his damage in his 22-27 minutes of playing time. He’s viable in all formats if he can keep this up. Just know that his playing time will be limited, so you’re playing him for his floor as opposed to his ceiling, which is capped given his minutes limitation.
I probably won’t touch the three-headed monster of Wesley Matthews, Yogi Ferrell or J.J. Barea with them all splitting time. Matthews is probably the most appealing of the three if he’s back healthy and starting, but I’m not going out of my way to target any of them.
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,900 | $6,800 | 28.0 | 6.9 | 29.6 | 4.2 | 0.95 | 26.6% | 22 | 16 | 23 | |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,300 | $5,100 | 23.6 | -1.5 | 34.0 | 1.0 | 0.69 | 16.3% | 13 | 24 | 15 | |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,200 | $6,700 | 30.1 | 1.7 | 34.3 | -0.7 | 0.88 | 21.7% | 2 | 11 | 17 | |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,600 | $5,700 | 24.6 | 3.3 | 25.1 | -0.3 | 0.98 | 18.6% | 22 | 13 | 28 | |
| Dwight Powell | $5,500 | $5,500 | 19.1 | 8.0 | 20.6 | 7.9 | 0.93 | 13.8% | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
| J.J. Barea | $5,400 | $5,800 | 24.0 | -2.7 | 23.4 | -0.2 | 1.03 | 24.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,100 | $4,600 | 19.2 | -1.3 | 29.0 | -0.7 | 0.66 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes, Dwight Powell, Dennis Smith Jr.
Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:30 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dejounte Murray | Patty Mills | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 2 | DvP | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 20 | 5 | 27 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 28 | 1 | 15 | 6 | |
San Antonio Spurs
Notable Injuries
Pau Gasol (Questionable)
As of Saturday morning, Pau Gasol is listed questionable. His absence would have a big domino effect on this team. If he’s out, we’d probably see Davis Bertans draw another start at power forward while LaMarcus Aldridge shifts to the center. Selfishly, I hope Gasol plays so that Aldridge mans the power forward position and I can target him against Carmelo Anthony. Either way, Aldridge is a solid play, but he’s priced at a point where there’s not a lot of margin for error.
Rudy Gay drew a lot of industry buzz on Thursday against the Warriors but surprisngly only played 16 minutes (perhaps it was from the fact he blew out his eardrum earlier). His price did come down and he put up a decent stat line in limited time, but at this point I don’t think you can trust him in cash games knowing his minutes are volatile and capped. I don’t have much interest in him and would probably just rather take a flyer on Manu Ginobili.
Meanwhile, Kyle Anderson exploded against the Warriors and he’s now collected 10 steals over his last two games. I worry a bit about the matchup against Paul George and averaging 5 steals a game isn’t sustainable. Add in the fact that his price has been rising and I think I’d rather go elsewhere with my fantasy dollars.
We’ve recently been seeing Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills start side by side. Mills has a steady enough floor for cash games, but Murray is the guy I’d want for tournaments. One would think Murray would be needed to try and contain Russell Westbrook. Westbrook has 30 pounds on Murray but Murray also has 2 inches on Westbrook and possesses a 7 foot wingspan, so I would think he’d get minutes in this game. We’ve seen Tony Parker getting the backup point guard minutes so it’s difficult to gauge how much Pop is going to lean on Murray. I like the idea of a Murray/Westbrook stack in the event they feed off each other, similar to how Westbrook and Devin Booker just feasted against each other recently.
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | $6,500 | $6,000 | 20.8 | 11.7 | 20.1 | 7.2 | 1.03 | 19.8% | 11 | 6 | 8 | |
| Patty Mills | $4,200 | $4,300 | 17.0 | 0.6 | 24.5 | 6.5 | 0.69 | 17.5% | 18 | 21 | 20 | |
| Kyle Anderson | $6,100 | $5,800 | 24.7 | 8.0 | 27.4 | 0.3 | 0.90 | 13.3% | 16 | 7 | 5 | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,700 | $8,400 | 38.9 | -6.8 | 33.6 | -4.0 | 1.16 | 25.7% | 15 | 11 | 27 | |
| Pau Gasol | $6,200 | $6,100 | 28.5 | 4.8 | 25.0 | 2.1 | 1.14 | 19.0% | 1 | 2 | 21 | |
| Tony Parker | $3,700 | $4,100 | 17.3 | -2.6 | 20.6 | -1.2 | 0.84 | 21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Davis Bertans | $3,900 | $4,500 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 15.6 | 1.8 | 0.79 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Manu Ginobili | $3,800 | $3,800 | 16.5 | -1.3 | 20.3 | -2.6 | 0.81 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills (for cash games if he starts), Dejounte Murray (GPPs)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Anderson, Davis Bertans (If Pau Gasol is out), Pau Gasol (If he plays), Manu Ginobili
Oklahoma City Thunder
Notable Injuries
Terrance Ferguson (In Concussion Protocol)
In my opinion, your decision to play Russell Westbrook or not is the first decision you need to make. On a short four-game slate, it’s hard to argue against playing Westbrook, who has the highest floor and ceiling on the slate. The argument against Westbrook is that he’s the highest priced player taking on the Spurs, who rank 2nd in both DvP against point guards and in defensive efficiency as a team. In cash games, I think it makes sense to plug him in and then work around his salary. In tournaments, you could theoretically fade him and target heavily the mid-tier. If you check his box scores, he has been held to under 55 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 games. I haven’t built any teams yet or taken any stands for tournaments since it all depends on what value opens up, so I’m just trying to present both sides of the argument as I think it helps to talk it out. It boils down to your risk tolerance, what you expect Westbrook’s ownership to be in tournaments and whether you think the Spurs can slow him down.
Paul George also draws a difficult matchup as the Spurs rank 7th in DvP, but his price dropped $900 to $7,700 on DraftKings for this matchup. Even though I fully respect Kyle Anderson defense, he’s an elite play at that price. He’s $8,400 on FanDuel, which is a little tougher to stomach, but he’s still a solid play there given the limited options and the fact you must roster two small forwards.
Maybe this is just my own personal bias, but I’m tired of playing Carmelo Anthony. If Pau Gasol plays and he matches up with LaMarcus Aldridge, I’ll have no interest. Even if he faces Davis Bertans defense, I don’t have much interest. I’m listing him as a secondary play out of respect for the man and because we need to explore options on a four-game slate, but if I lose a H2H or tournament because I was underweight on Carmelo Anthony, I can live with that.
I think Steven Adams is fine considering the nature of this slate but I generally try not to pick on the Spurs.
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.0 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,000 | $11,500 | 53.6 | 1.1 | 36.2 | 0.8 | 1.48 | 34.4% | 11 | 2 | 1 | |
| Corey Brewer | $4,100 | $3,600 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 0.69 | 12.6% | 1 | 2 | 28 | |
| Paul George | $8,400 | $7,700 | 38.9 | -0.5 | 36.5 | 0.1 | 1.06 | 23.6% | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,800 | $5,900 | 28.2 | -5.7 | 32.2 | -0.7 | 0.88 | 21.9% | 5 | 4 | 15 | |
| Steven Adams | $7,200 | $6,500 | 31.9 | 0.6 | 32.8 | 2.4 | 0.97 | 14.4% | 5 | 11 | 6 | |
| Jerami Grant | $3,900 | $3,700 | 17.2 | 2.2 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 0.83 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Paul George, Russell Westbrook
Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Carmelo Anthony
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.5 |  | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 115.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Jonathon Simmons | Jonathan Isaac | Mario Hezonja | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Tobias Harris | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 29 | 23 | 25 | 26 | DvP | 29 | 28 | 19 | 26 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 26 | 3 | 18 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 30 | 10 | 28 | 8 | |
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Aaron Gordon (In Concussion Protocol), Evan Fournier (Out)
This is the premiere game of the slate where a lot of fantasy goodness should come from. The Clippers and Magic rank 6th and 8th in pace, respectively. The Magic enter extremely banged up and missing two of their stars, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. Gordon is technically in concussion protocol but I’m under the assumption he misses this game like he missed Friday’s game.
On Friday, I expected Mario Hezonja and Nikola Vucevic to go off against the Sacramento Kings. I was wrong, as Hezonja ended up with 11 points and Vucevic ended up with a pitiful 13 points. I apologize to anyone who took my advice to play them. The good news is that the minutes were there, as both played 33 minutes. Instead, it was Jonathon Simmons going off for 25 points. Recency bias is going to have the crowd flocking to Simmons on Saturday, so in tournaments, I am willing to go back to Hezonja and Vucevic.
This is also my rude awakening that I need to take Jonathon Simmons more seriously when Gordon and Fournier are off the court. Per CourtIQ, Simmons has a 28.3% usage rate when both are off the court and he sees the biggest usage bump on the team. Given this role and pace-up matchup, I need to overcome my own personal biases toward Simmons and am calling him an elite play, althouhg I will say his price is much friendlier on DraftKings than on FanDuel. You can find the CourtIQ run here.
Outside of those three, D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack are secondary plays on this slate. Both are viable as punt fill-ins with upside in this matchup. Jonathan Isaac is intriguing in that he started and played 26 minutes. He hasn’t had that eruption game lately but he did drop 26.5 DraftKings points back in November against the Suns in just 21 minutes, which is his career high in fantasy production so far. If he draws another start and is given 26-30 minutes, he could make for a sneaky GPP play.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $4,800 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 18.0 | 6.7 | 22.3 | 9.5 | 0.81 | 18.2% | 17 | 17 | 11 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,200 | $5,400 | $9,100 | 22.7 | -5.3 | 29.1 | 0.9 | 0.78 | 18.9% | 23 | 29 | 26 |
| Jonathan Isaac | $3,800 | $3,700 | $6,100 | 14.7 | -0.3 | 18.4 | -2.4 | 0.80 | 11.5% | 21 | 23 | 3 |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,800 | $5,600 | $8,200 | 18.1 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 0.90 | 17.5% | 14 | 25 | 18 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $9,100 | $8,700 | $15,700 | 38.1 | -1.2 | 30.2 | 2.3 | 1.26 | 22.7% | 25 | 26 | 7 |
| Shelvin Mack | $3,700 | $4,400 | $7,400 | 15.5 | 0.8 | 18.5 | 2.0 | 0.84 | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja, Nikola Vucevic, Jonathon Simmons
Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin, Jonathan Isaac (GPP), Shelvin Mack
Los Angeles Clippers
Notable Injuries
None
The Clippers pulled off a win against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. Most notably, the Clippers pushed Lou Williams into the starting lineup in favor of Milos Teodosic, who only played 18 minutes. It remains to be seen if this was a matchup-related change or permanent, but either way, Williams is an solid play on this slate given the matchup.
DeAndre Jordan put up a dominant 20/23 double-double against a small Cavaliers team. The Magic rank 22nd in DvP against centers and Nikola Vucevic isn’t exactly known for his defensive prowess. Jordan remains an elite play.
Tobias Harris has been priced up to $8,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is very expensive. I’d almost rather take the savings and roll with Montrezl Harrell, who has been on fire lately. He dropped 20 points and 5 rebounds on the Cavs Friday night in just 20 minutes.
I’m not a fan of Austin Rivers, but there aren’t a ton of options on this slate and the Magic do rank 29th in DvP against point guards, making him a solid option.
The last guy I’ll mention is Sindarius Thornwell. KillaB mentioned him to me earlier this week and I’ll admit I was slow to the game. Thornwell appears to have secured the small forward roll now that the Clippers haven’t resigned C.J. Williams or Tyrone Wallace. Thornwell is not a high usage player but he did play 37 minutes on Friday to defend LeBron and he is dirt cheap. I’m listing him as a secondary play as opposed to an elite play as I don’t know if he’ll get 37 minutes again with no LeBron to defend on the other side.
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.2 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.8 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 6.6 ( of 6)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.7 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | $4,000 | $5,000 | $10,300 | 20.3 | 2.2 | 25.2 | 2.7 | 0.80 | 18.3% | 28 | 29 | 20 |
| Austin Rivers | $6,400 | $6,200 | $11,900 | 26.0 | -1.1 | 33.1 | 0.3 | 0.79 | 20.1% | 25 | 28 | 30 |
| Wesley Johnson | $3,600 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 16.5 | -10.3 | 21.7 | -11.2 | 0.76 | 11.2% | 28 | 19 | 10 |
| Tobias Harris | $8,100 | $8,100 | $14,700 | 31.0 | 8.9 | 33.1 | 1.4 | 0.94 | 21.0% | 15 | 26 | 28 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $8,300 | $7,800 | $14,500 | 35.0 | 1.9 | 31.8 | -2.8 | 1.10 | 12.2% | 26 | 22 | 8 |
| Lou Williams | $8,000 | $8,500 | $14,800 | 35.5 | 1.5 | 32.5 | 1.0 | 1.09 | 27.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Montrezl Harrell | $5,600 | $5,600 | $10,100 | 18.9 | 10.5 | 16.2 | 6.6 | 1.17 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sindarius Thornwell | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 0.61 | 10.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan, Montrezl Harrell, Austin Rivers, Lou Williams
Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris, Milos Teodosic, Sindarius Thornwell
Final Thoughts
1. I think what you decide to do with Russell Westbrook in your lineups is the first decision you need to make.
2. There should be value opening up if Memphis decides to sit several players. Not all value is good value though, but it could be the key to getting Westbrook in your lineup if that’s your goal.
3. The LAC/ORL game is the clear juicy game on this slate if you’re into game stacks.
4. The Wizards are in a unique spot in that we know where their offense is going to come from, but it’s a difficult spot on paper. In contrast, the Heat can attack you in a multitude of ways, making it hard to identify where their production will come from.
Good luck! May variance be on your side.