NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 24th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers – 6:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Philadelphia 76ers
minnesotanba Vegas Total 220.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Implied Team Total 106.5 Implied Team Total 114.0
Pace Projection +/- 1.8 Pace Projection +/- -1.5
Projected Starters Jeff Teague Andrew Wiggins Nemanja Bjelica Taj Gibson Karl-Anthony Towns Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 18 19 13 11 DvP 17 19 2 8 10
DRPM Rat. 1 26 1 25 2 DRPM Rat. 18 N/A 9 12 24

Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a game I wish was on the main slate because it should be a fun and competitive game to watch. I will be breaking it down like it is part of the one game slate because that is mainly where you can get action on this game. The 76ers are a pace up matchup for Minnesota and should be a team that we have the most interest in on the one game slate.

The biggest decision on this slate will be deciding if you should pay up for Joel Embiid or Karl-Anthony Towns. If you force me to pick one I will likely lean Towns because he gets a boost in pace, is playing without Jimmy Butler and is cheaper than Embiid. I don’t think you can go wrong with either one. Jeff Teague had a disappointing game against the Knicks last night, but I think this could be a great bounce back spot for him. He is the fourth highest priced player on this one game slate and I prefer him to Andrew Wiggins who is in the same price range.

The next price range lands Nemanja Bjelica who I think is the best play in this range. If this game stays competitive, I expect him to get enough minutes and he should outscore Saric and Covington. If you want to save some money I don’t mind going to Taj Gibson for $7400. I will likely have a ton of Timberwolves on this slate because their minutes are safe and secure. At this price it is tough to find someone who will play minutes in the upper 30’s. I love the value for Gibson here and he will be someone I make sure to get exposure to on this slate. If you are looking for a cheap option on Minnesota I would look no further than Jamal Crawford. At $5100 he is an elite value play to help fit in Embiid or Towns. On top of that Crawford benefits with Derrick Rose expected to be out.

Notable Injuries None

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 110.0 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -3.5 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (5 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jeff Teague 31.1 6.8 33.1 0.3 0.94 20.2% 2 13 1
Andrew Wiggins 29.4 3.0 36.2 0.3 0.81 21.1% 23 18 26
Nemanja Bjelica 15.2 11.6 19.3 15.4 0.78 13.4% 3 19 1
Taj Gibson 26.2 -5.5 33.5 -1.1 0.78 13.1% 12 13 25
Karl-Anthony Towns 43.7 6.6 35.4 3.5 1.24 19.9% 5 11 2
Jamal Crawford 16.0 2.7 20.1 6.3 0.80 22.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Karl Anthony-Towns and Taj Gibson

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Nemanja Bjelica and Jamal Crawford


Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are a team still fighting for playoff seeding and have a chance to get first round home court advantage. Every game counts for the Sixers and I expect them to play their players normal run for the rest of the season. The Timberwolves are a slower paced team that struggle defensively and are currently ranked 26th in defensive efficiency. There are some plays to target on the Sixers side, but I prefer Minnesota players more.

Embiid is in play and although I prefer Towns to Embiid, I think you can make an argument that if you load up on too many Minnesota values it makes more sense to run it back with Embiid. Either way both are elite plays on this slate and should have big games. I think there are some plays that can make the double pay up option work, but it isn’t the most optimal one. If you do that you are forced into looking at plays like Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova. I think they are viable as value plays that can help you take more of a stars and scrubs approach. JJ Redick is one of my least favorite values on this slate and I will likely just stay away from him. Robert Covington and Dario Saric are fine plays to mix and match throughout your lineups but are not options that I feel like I must roster. Ben Simmons is the last guy I want to discuss here – he is the third highest priced player on the slate. I think it makes the most sense to pair him up with Embiid since they correlate well together and hope they both have big games. Other than that, I wouldn’t play Simmons without Embiid and I think he could be the highest priced player that I get the least amount of exposure to on this slate.

Notable Injuries None

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (24 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons 41.3 5.4 34.3 -3.3 1.20 22.8% 15 17 18
J.J. Redick 24.5 -2.8 30.6 -6.7 0.80 19.6% 28 19 N/A
Robert Covington 27.3 -2.5 31.8 -5.2 0.86 15.1% 2 2 9
Dario Saric 28.1 -4.2 30.3 -4.8 0.93 18.3% 5 8 12
Joel Embiid 45.4 1.3 30.9 -3.8 1.47 28.3% 27 10 24
Ersan Ilyasova 21.3 -3.2 24.8 -2.6 0.86 15.9% N/A N/A N/A
Marco Belinelli 17.9 1.0 23.9 2.7 0.75 18.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Dario Saric, Marco Belinelli


Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons
chicagonba Vegas Total 210.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Implied Team Total 99.5 Implied Team Total 110.5
Pace Projection +/- -1.2 Pace Projection +/- 0.6
Projected Starters Cameron Payne Justin Holiday Denzel Valentine Lauri Markkanen Cristiano Felicio Projected Starters Reggie Jackson Reggie Bullock Stanley Johnson Blake Griffin Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 8 26 17 9 DvP 21 28 21 26 23
DRPM Rat. 18 21 6 23 11 DRPM Rat. 10 4 19 26 30

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are tanking and tinkering with minutes every chance they get. I typically want to stay away from these teams because they can be unpredictable but on a five-game slate, it’s going to be hard to avoid. They are also dealing with injuries to three starters in Kris Dunn, Zach Lavine and Lauri Markkanen. The Pistons may not be a team that we target a ton but there is too much value here for the Bulls side of the ball to go ignored.

Lauri Markkanen not traveling with the team is big for the value in this frontcourt. We know Robin Lopez is still not playing so that only leaves three bodies to occupy the center and power forward minutes. Cristiano Felicio, Bobby Portis and Noah Vonleh will all benefit from Markkanen’s injury. If I had to pick my favorite option I love Noah Vonleh in this spot and think he is the best Bulls value play. This slate I will be paying up for Harden or Davis so getting a cheap value play like Vonleh makes roster construction easier. He also will be needed a ton with Drummond and Griffin on the opposing end, so I feel secure in his minutes. Bobby Portis has the highest ceiling of any of these players and I like his chances to have a big game. I do think Felicio is a solid value play, but he is the one I feel most worried about and carries the most risk. I think he is worth getting exposure to but not one I want to go crazy with.

Denzel Valentine is only $5600 on FanDuel and is in a great spot on this slate. I love that price on FanDuel and can’t wait to target him there. The Pistons struggle against opposing small forwards and are ranked 26th in the league against them. I think Valentine is also a good play on DraftKings but on FanDuel he will tough to pass on. Justin Holiday has seen an uptick in minutes, but I just think we can’t trust him at this time. The minutes are just not safe to me and I think it is better that we just stay away from Holiday until we know he is going to get more run. The last play that I really want to get exposure to would be Cameron Payne. He has been a great value all week long and his price is still the same. He is one of the better point guard values on this slate and I would rank him as an elite play.

Notable Injuries Kris Dunn, Zach Lavine and Lauri Markkanen (out)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Cameron Payne $5,200 $5,500 $11,300 21.2 3.9 21.0 5.1 1.01 20.8% 20 11 18
Justin Holiday $3,700 $3,600 $6,900 24.3 -13.3 32.8 -13.5 0.74 16.1% 3 8 21
Denzel Valentine $5,600 $6,100 $12,000 22.8 5.7 27.4 -2.4 0.83 17.1% 21 26 6
Lauri Markkanen $5,800 $5,400 $10,300 28.2 30.4 0.93 19.1% 15 17 23
Cristiano Felicio $4,000 $4,300 $8,200 10.7 10.6 16.0 12.3 0.67 11.3% 16 9 11
Bobby Portis $6,800 $6,500 $12,300 25.6 7.5 22.4 4.8 1.14 23.1% N/A N/A N/A
Noah Vonleh $4,200 $4,500 $8,500 12.9 13.1 15.4 12.0 0.84 12.4% N/A N/A N/A
Jerian Grant $4,100 $3,800 $6,700 19.7 -4.9 22.6 -2.5 0.87 18.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Cameron Payne, Noah Vonleh, Bobby Portis and Denzel Valentine

Secondary Plays – Cristiano Felicio


Detroit Pistons

I really don’t want to play a ton of the Pistons but it’s tough to avoid them in this type of matchup. The Bulls are ranked 25th in points allowed per game, 26th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace. This is a dream spot to target in DFS, but the Pistons are not a fun roster. It is tough to not play Pistons, but I also don’t want to feel like I am forcing them in.

If you have the money to spend up at center, Andre Drummond is an elite play that should dominate in this matchup. Drummond’s price has gone up, but it is still cheap relative to what he has done over the past few months. I think the upside at $9300 on DraftKings is too high to pass on and is someone that I want to get exposure to in tournaments. Another reason I like Drummond is that I don’t like Blake Griffin at this price. I think the matchup is good, but I just think I am overpaying for him at $9400 and $9500. I know he has 50 or more fantasy points in his last two games, but I would rather take my chances on Drummond or spend my money elsewhere. The only other Pistons I have interest in are Ish Smith on DraftKings and Reggie Jackson on FanDuel. I think their prices on each site are interesting and there is still a lot of upside for them. I prefer Ish Smith because I think his minutes are secure even with Jackson back. The problem with Jackson is that I don’t know how many minutes he will play. He played 15 and 19 minutes in his first two games. If we get word that his minutes will increase, then I would want to get exposure to him against the Bulls, but until then I wouldn’t go overweight on Jackson exposure.

Notable Injuries None

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 102.8 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 7.7 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $4,100 $4,500 $8,800 24.9 -14.6 26.5 -8.9 0.94 25.8% 21 21 10
Reggie Bullock $5,700 $5,100 $10,900 18.3 5.3 27.6 3.8 0.66 14.3% 29 28 4
Stanley Johnson $4,400 $4,000 $7,300 18.3 1.2 27.1 -7.1 0.68 14.8% 24 21 19
Blake Griffin $9,400 $9,500 $18,000 39.6 6.9 34.3 2.5 1.15 27.7% 29 26 26
Andre Drummond $10,200 $9,300 $17,100 45.1 -1.8 33.3 0.6 1.35 18.5% 24 23 30

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond (draftkings)

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith


Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Orlando Magic
phoenixnba Vegas Total orlandonba Vegas Total
Vegas Spread Vegas Spread
Implied Team Total Implied Team Total
Pace Projection +/- 0.8 Pace Projection +/- 3.2
Projected Starters Elfrid Payton Devin Booker T.J. Warren Dragan Bender Alex Len Projected Starters D.J. Augustin Wes Iwundu Mario Hezonja Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 26 18 23 20 DvP 30 30 24 30 27
DRPM Rat. 22 16 29 21 9 DRPM Rat. 25 28 29 27 21

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are banged up and a team that we should look to get exposure to in a matchup against the Orlando Magic. This is a great matchup against the Magic because they are ranked 24th in points allowed per game, 23rd in defensive efficiency, 30th in rebounding differential and 10th in pace of play. This is a team that I have targeted all year long and that won’t change here.

My favorite play in this game will be Josh Jackson especially if Devin Booker sits. Josh Jackson didn’t have his greatest game last night against the Cavaliers but that’s because it became a blowout and he only played 27 minutes. I expect this game to stay close and if Booker sits I could see Jackson playing 35 minutes and having a massive game. He is an elite option that I wouldn’t want to miss out on. If Booker plays I think there is an argument to be made for him as a low owned tournament play, but I am operating under the assumption that he will be out. If he is out we could see Troy Daniels become a decent value at guard. I think he would be a nice secondary value but not one that I would be jamming in. I really want the Elfrid Payton revenge game to be a thing today, but I don’t know if I can force myself to roster him. Payton has seen 22 minutes or less in 3 of his last 4 games and only has 20 or more fantasy points in one of those games. The spot is great for him, but he has been too inconsistent that I think we can only roster him as a deep tournament dart throw. The last spot to talk about on Phoenix is the frontcourt situation and how to attack it going forward. Tyson Chandler is likely out for the rest of the season and that would open a lot of opportunity for Alex Len. I think he could have a big game here because his size should be needed, and he gets to go up against the worst rebounding differential team in the league. Len would be my favorite play in the frontcourt followed by Bender and then Chriss as my least favorite option.

Notable Injuries Devin Booker (questoinable), TJ Warren (out) and Tyson Chandler (out)

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 104.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,700 $5,800 $13,200 30.1 -13.0 29.0 -5.7 1.04 21.6% 28 29 22
Devin Booker $7,200 $7,800 $14,000 37.4 -15.1 34.5 -0.4 1.08 28.4% 24 26 16
T.J. Warren $6,300 $5,900 $11,400 31.2 -4.4 33.0 0.0 0.94 22.5% 26 18 29
Dragan Bender $4,100 $3,900 $7,500 14.8 5.1 24.6 5.4 0.60 11.0% 18 23 21
Alex Len $4,500 $4,500 $8,700 21.8 -4.5 19.8 -4.5 1.10 14.3% 26 20 9
Josh Jackson $6,800 $7,000 $13,500 21.7 16.0 24.3 8.7 0.89 21.6% N/A N/A N/A
Marquese Chriss $3,800 $3,600 $6,700 18.3 -3.6 20.2 -2.8 0.90 15.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Jackson

Secondary Plays – Troy Daniels and Alex Len


Orlando Magic

The Magic are a team that we are going to want to consider a little bit here. They get one of the best matchups to target in DFS against the team ranked in 30th in points allowed per game, 30th in defensive efficiency and 2nd in pace of play. This is a team that we want to target, and we should get exposure to the Orlando side of the ball.

With Jonathon Simmons doubtful and Evan Fournier ruled out, that opens a lot of value on the wing for us to target. Mario Hezonja and Wes Iwundu are elite value plays on this slate because of the injury situation and the matchup against the Suns. On paper this is a great spot to target Nikola Vucevic in a pace up game where he should dominate, the problem is the minutes have been down. I don’t think he is a good play in cash games but in tournaments he still has upside, I just worry about his minutes while the Magic are trying to tank. Aaron Gordon is another talented player that if this game was in December I would be all over at this price and in this situation. I do worry that there is a chance he doesn’t get full run. In his last two games he had 33 and 27 minutes. In that time, he can certainly exceed value, but it might be tough for him to have that big 50 fantasy point game. I think Gordon’s a fine secondary play but with all the depth at forward today I don’t need to force him in as an elite play. The Suns are still the worst in the league at defending point guards which means DJ Augustin and Shelvin Mack are nice secondary plays. Both have shown a ton of upside at their prices and in this matchup one of the two could have a big game. It’s important to make sure not to play them both on the same team because they eat into each other’s minutes. I think getting exposure to both point guards against the worst team at defending the position makes a lot of sense.

Notable Injuries Jonathon Simmons (doubtful), Evan Fournier (out) and Jonathan Isaac (not expected to play)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.9 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (2 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $5,300 $5,300 $10,900 18.8 7.3 23.1 7.4 0.81 18.4% 28 30 25
Wes Iwundu $3,900 $3,200 $6,500 9.0 5.8 14.9 5.2 0.60 10.5% 30 30 28
Mario Hezonja $4,100 $4,900 $9,900 17.9 -0.7 20.7 4.2 0.86 17.4% 21 24 29
Aaron Gordon $7,800 $7,500 $13,300 34.8 -1.4 33.5 -2.7 1.04 21.6% 30 30 27
Nikola Vucevic $8,100 $7,600 $13,300 36.8 -7.0 30.0 -2.1 1.23 22.8% 23 27 21
Shelvin Mack $4,500 $4,400 $8,700 16.2 7.2 19.0 3.5 0.85 17.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Mario Hezonja and Wes Iwundu

Secondary Plays – Aaron Gordon DJ Augustin and Shelvin Mack


New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Houston Rockets
neworleansnba Vegas Total 226.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 226.5
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Implied Team Total 109.3 Implied Team Total 117.3
Pace Projection +/- 0.2 Pace Projection +/- 2.9
Projected Starters Rajon Rondo Jrue Holiday E’Twaun Moore Anthony Davis Emeka Okafor Projected Starters James Harden Eric Gordon Trevor Ariza P.J. Tucker Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 14 10 2 22 DvP 19 27 22 19 15
DRPM Rat. 14 23 13 10 3 DRPM Rat. 20 2 30 1 16

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have been a team that we have been getting exposure to since DeMarcus Cousins went down. This is also a 226.5 total and one that we should look to target. Chris Paul is likely out for this game, so that should help keep this game closer.

Anthony Davis is a great play on this slate and could honestly go under owned. There are not a ton of stars on this slate, but I am expecting everyone to gravitate towards Harden. There is also better value at power forward than shooting guard so that also might keep Davis ownership down. He is an elite play for many other reasons and you already know he is a great player. I just thought it was worth mentioning that if you are worried about Davis ownership on a small slate, I wouldn’t be. Harden should be higher owned than Davis and that makes Davis an even better tournament play. Jrue Holiday is priced nicely on both sites and I think he is an elite play. He still has upside at this price and with Rondo out he becomes an even better option. Rondo’s injury is going to give the biggest boost to Ian Clark. I expect him to get a ton of Rondo’s minutes at guard and be an elite value play.

E’Twaun Moore price never moves, and he continues to have a great floor with a nice ceiling. He could also get some extra run at guard with Rondo out, making him an even better play now. Moore is a great cash game option and a secondary value on this slate. Emeka Okafor is the last play to mention because Mirotic is questionable. If Mirotic is out Okafor and Cheick Diallo would be forced into more minutes and be decent value plays. I can’t go ahead and make them secondary options though without Mirotic being ruled out.

Notable Injuries Rajon Rondo (out)

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,600 $6,800 $12,500 26.3 10.4 25.9 4.7 1.01 18.5% 6 7 14
Jrue Holiday $8,500 $8,200 $14,300 37.2 -3.8 36.4 -3.8 1.02 21.9% 19 14 23
E’Twaun Moore $4,700 $4,300 $8,100 20.9 2.7 31.8 0.3 0.66 14.7% 19 10 13
Anthony Davis $12,700 $11,500 $20,100 54.5 0.7 36.5 -1.4 1.49 25.7% 3 2 10
Emeka Okafor $3,800 $3,500 $7,200 16.3 -4.9 15.6 -3.0 1.04 12.4% 18 22 3
Ian Clark $4,200 $3,800 $7,900 12.0 8.4 19.3 7.8 0.62 15.4% N/A N/A N/A
Nikola Mirotic $5,100 $5,200 $9,900 29.0 -3.8 26.7 -2.4 1.08 20.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Ian Clark and Jrue Holiday

Secondary Plays – E’Twuan Moore


Houston Rockets

The Rockets get one of the best matchups on the board today against the New Orleans Pelicans in a 226.5 total. The Pelicans are a great team to target, currently ranked 29th in points allowed per game, 15th in defensive efficiency and 3rd in pace. We have been stacking against the Pelicans for awhile now and that will be no different for my lineups today.

James Harden is my favorite pay up option on this slate. With the lack of plays at shooting guard, Harden is one of the best plays on the slate. This is also a great matchup for Harden because the Pelicans struggle against opposing guards and this is a big pace up game for the Rockets. Everything screams James Harden smash spot and I will be certainly loading up on him today. I know I talked about the lack of value at shooting guard, but Eric Gordon is a play at shooting guard today. With Chris Paul doubtful Eric Gordon sees a major boost in usage and is an elite option. His price on FanDuel is crazy too at $5200 so make sure to get even more exposure to him over there. Gordon gets a matchup against the team that is ranked 27th at defending opposing shooting guards. This is too good of spot to pass up on this elite option. At $6800 on DraftKings I still like him but prefer him more on FanDuel. Clint Capela is too cheap on DraftKings at $6700 and makes for a good secondary play at center. The boost in pace should help give him extra opportunities for rebounds and I think he is safe for a floor of 25 fantasy points and has a lot of upside at this price. If you want to mix and match players like Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker and Joe Johnson throughout your tournament teams, I wouldn’t talk you out of it because it’s the Pelicans and they struggle so much on the defensive end. I will likely keep it simple here and focus on targeting Harden, Gordon and Capela.

Notable Injuries Chris Paul (questionable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
James Harden $11,800 $11,700 $21,900 53.6 0.3 35.6 0.8 1.51 33.9% 16 19 20
Eric Gordon $5,200 $6,800 $12,700 25.5 -2.3 31.5 0.5 0.81 21.6% 27 27 2
Trevor Ariza $5,000 $4,700 $9,200 24.0 -3.0 34.4 -1.5 0.70 13.1% 16 22 30
P.J. Tucker $4,100 $3,900 $7,400 17.0 1.6 27.8 2.2 0.61 9.0% 25 19 1
Clint Capela $7,200 $6,700 $13,000 34.4 0.6 27.4 2.6 1.26 16.8% 16 15 16
Eric Gordon $5,200 $6,800 $12,700 25.5 -2.3 31.5 0.5 0.81 21.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela


Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Memphis Grizzlies
lalakersnba Vegas Total 218.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Implied Team Total 111.5 Implied Team Total 106.5
Pace Projection +/- -2.6 Pace Projection +/- 3.5
Projected Starters Lonzo Ball Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Kuzma Julius Randle Brook Lopez Projected Starters Tyreke Evans Dillon Brooks Jarell Martin JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 20 24 15 14 1 DvP 23 23 28 29 16
DRPM Rat. 5 18 24 29 10 DRPM Rat. 1 8 28 14 23

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have been a great team to target since the trade deadline. It’s unfortunate that they must play the Memphis Grizzles who are not a fun team to roster. They are also the slowest paced team in the league going up against the fastest paced team in the Lakers. The Lakers play their young guys a ton of minutes where the Grizzles play a ton of players and you never know who is going to get the run. These teams are both not good but from a DFS perspective are opposites. This doesn’t seem like the best matchup to target the Lakers but, the minutes are so secure, and prices are still reasonable that I still have interest.

I will start off by saying I think the Lakers are better values on FanDuel and I prefer to target them over there. On DraftKings the slow pace and increase in price make them tougher to roster. On FanDuel I love Kuzma, Randle and Ball’s price tags and think they are elite plays. I think playing a max of two Lakers on FanDuel makes sense because of the pace of their opponent. Either way I would be sure to be overweight on Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Julius Randle if I was playing multiple tournament lineups. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a secondary play on both sites that should play a pile of minutes. He also thrives against bad teams on the defensive end, picking up a ton of steals and he should be able to get a ton against a bad Grizzles team. Brook Lopez and Isaiah Thomas are not going to be options that I get exposure to here. I am going to mainly focus on Ball, Kuzma, Randle and KCP when building my lineups.

Notable Injuries Brandon Ingram (out)

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.6 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (30 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Lonzo Ball $7,600 $8,100 $14,800 34.3 0.7 34.1 5.8 1.00 17.9% 23 20 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $6,300 $6,500 $12,900 27.7 0.6 33.8 4.1 0.82 15.4% 16 24 18
Kyle Kuzma $6,200 $6,600 $12,300 27.1 8.5 30.5 7.4 0.89 19.6% 7 15 24
Julius Randle $7,900 $8,300 $15,900 30.0 9.4 26.4 9.7 1.14 21.4% 22 14 29
Brook Lopez $6,700 $6,400 $13,100 24.3 9.6 23.0 9.4 1.06 21.0% 2 1 10
Isaiah Thomas $5,600 $5,800 $11,900 23.7 -4.0 26.9 2.3 0.88 25.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Lonzo Ball, Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma (all three FanDuel elite plays secondary on DraftKings)

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope


Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzles are going to be a team that I wish I could target but I probably get no exposure to on this slate. They get a matchup against the fastest paced team in the league which is great for them. The problem is I really don’t trust anyone on Memphis and fear that I could get late scratched, since this game is an hour after lock.

They played 12 players last game with only one playing more than 30 minutes and that was Jarell Martin. If we get word that Marc Gasol is out then I can understand getting exposure to Martin and Deyonta Davis because the matchup is great, the pace is perfect, and the price is low. If Gasol plays I would expect the Grizzles to go 13 deep with their lineup and would make them an easy fade for me on this slate. If Tyreke Evans sits that could open some value in the backcourt but unless I get word on that I will just pass on Grizzles guards. Evans could also be a great play if Gasol sat because he would see a major boost in usage. The problem is we can’t trust the coaching staff, he played only 19 minutes last game and it’s just a frustrating situation. I think it’s best to just stay away from the Grizzles if we can and if value opens then we can re-open this conversation.

Notable Injuries Andrew Harrison (questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 98.8 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 7.7 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tyreke Evans $7,800 $7,900 $14,400 35.2 4.3 30.9 -1.0 1.14 27.7% 22 23 1
Dillon Brooks $3,900 $4,400 $8,500 17.5 2.2 28.6 -1.2 0.61 15.3% 10 23 8
Jarell Martin $4,600 $4,600 $9,100 16.7 3.0 22.1 5.1 0.76 14.7% 19 28 28
JaMychal Green $5,900 $5,600 $11,000 24.3 3.9 27.8 2.0 0.87 16.0% 26 29 14
Marc Gasol $8,000 $7,300 $13,300 37.8 -3.2 33.7 -2.4 1.12 23.4% 21 16 23

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

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