NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 12th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spkot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 214.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 106.5 | Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 2.0 | Pace +/- | 3.7 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Nick Young | Luol Deng | Julius Randle | Timofey Mozgov | Proj. Starter | Tim Frazier | E’Twaun Moore | Solomon Hill | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 26 | 18 | 2016-17 | 26 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 16 |
Los Angeles Lakers
Welcome to the 11-game Saturday slate. Excited to kick things off with the young Lakers. They came back against the Kings on Thursday in Sacramento and proved that they are a team that should be competitive every single night. So far, Luke Walton has the depth to keep everyone averaging under 30 minutes. The bench play has been monumental in bringing the team back when the starters have struggled and extending the lead when they play well. Julius Randle is their best player right now, while Nick Young has proved that he’s not just a flash in the pan and will make an impact on both ends of the floor this season. Lou Williams is already in the discussion for the Sixth Man of the Year award and leads the team with 15.9 PPG. But Williams isn’t the only strong guard coming off the bench for the Lakers; Jordan Clarkson is second on the team (behind D’Angelo Russell) in shot attempts at 12.3 per game. From a fantasy perspective, it’s going to be tough to decipher which Lakers guard is going to have a strong night. Walton is riding the hot hand, and it’s paying off in the win column.
With Russell leading the team with a 30.8% true usage rate, he’s a tournament option every time he takes the floor. If he can limit his turnovers, he should see closer to 30 minutes. If he continues to turn it over over more than three times a game, he’ll see a seat on the bench while Clarkson, Williams, and Brandon Ingram are used as the facilitators. Russell has shot over 50 percent in back-to-back games and could really be turning the corner as his salary continues to drop. With 11 games on the slate, it’ll be tough to recommend Russell as anything more than a secondary option. The Lakers lead the league with 48.8 points off the bench and should be used against an inexperienced Pelicans bench. Clarkson is the cheapest play on DraftKings, while he and Williams are the same price on FanDuel. Nick Young has been a cash game king and is the cheapest Lakers guard available. Julius Randle will have a tough time scoring over Anthony Davis but should be able play well when Davis is moved over to C. He’s a secondary option because his price is somewhat inflated, and he’ll have to have a monster game to exceed value. Timofey Mozgov also deserves consideration as long as his salary stays under $4k on DraftKings and FanDuel. He should play anywhere from 24-30 minutes to match up with the length of Anthony Davis. He did an admirable job on DeMarcus Cousins and should see the floor in crunch time.
- Injury Watch:
Ivica Zubac (doubtful)
- Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 107.8 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.5 (9 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (15 of 22)
- Los Angeles Lakers Pace
Pace of Play: 103.2 (3 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 105.2 (3 of 22)
Pace +/-: 2.0 (7 of 22)
- New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 214.0 (25 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D’Angelo Russell | $5,800 | $6,100 | $9,200 | 0.95 | 26.7 | -1.3 | 25.4 | -4.3 | 30.8% | -3.4% | 7 |
Nick Young | $4,400 | $4,800 | $7,700 | 0.76 | 27.4 | 4.2 | 20.8 | 5.6 | 18.1% | -0.5% | 16 |
Luol Deng | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 0.69 | 25 | -0.4 | 17.4 | -4.7 | 14.6% | -4.0% | 29 |
Julius Randle | $6,300 | $6,600 | $10,500 | 1.03 | 28 | 0.5 | 28.8 | 0.3 | 22.2% | 1.1% | 26 |
Timofey Mozgov | $3,700 | $3,500 | $8,700 | 0.72 | 22.4 | 2.7 | 16.1 | -0.4 | 15.2% | -1.1% | 18 |
Jordan Clarkson | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,000 | 0.78 | 26.8 | -0.3 | 20.9 | 2.3 | 24.4% | 0.2% | 16 |
Larry Nance | $3,800 | $4,200 | $7,300 | 0.87 | 20.2 | -7.7 | 17.5 | -7.7 | 12.5% | -7.0% | 26 |
Elite Plays – Nick Young (Cash), Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Lou Williams (GPP), Timofey Mozgov
Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Julius Randle (GPP)
New Orleans Pelicans
Tim Frazier had a strong game against the Bucks on Thursday and will look to build on that momentum against the Lakers. He’s slightly cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings but is in line for the double-double bonus on DK. Frazier has had 10 assists in two out of his last three games and should be considered an elite option against the Lakers, who are ranked 26th in DvP vs PGs. In one of the highest pace games of the night, Frazier can really exceed value if he sees above his season average of 30 minutes.
Anthony Davis has put up three consecutive games of 50+ fantasy points and is also an elite option against the Lakers. Davis played the Lakers only once due to injury last season and scored 55.20 DraftKings fantasy points against them. His floor is extremely high, but his ceiling could be priced in since he is the most expensive player on the slate. We’ve seen his upside so far this season, so he can’t be totally ignored.
Buddy Hield saw his minutes drop against the Bucks since E’Twaun Moore was having such a strong game. He’s still second on the team with a true usage rate of 25 percent and should be a viable tournament option against the Lakers. Langston Galloway is also a viable option, but he would need Frazier to play poorly to really see extended minutes. The Pelicans started Terrence Jones in their previous game and could continue that tonight. They keep playing around with Omer Asik and Jones in the starting lineup, so we’ll find out closer to lock on which guy is actually starting.
- Injury Watch:
Jrue Holiday (out)
Tyreke Evans (out)
- New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.6 (21 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.9 (1 of 22)
- New Orleans Pelicans Pace
Pace of Play: 101.5 (9 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 105.2 (3 of 22)
Pace +/-: 3.7 (3 of 22)
- Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.8 (19 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tim Frazier | $5,700 | $6,200 | $9,600 | 0.98 | 30 | 2.6 | 29.4 | 1.3 | 23.7% | -0.6% | 26 |
E’Twaun Moore | $4,700 | $4,300 | $7,500 | 0.68 | 30.5 | 1.6 | 20.8 | 2.6 | 19.6% | 2.4% | 22 |
Solomon Hill | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,700 | 0.60 | 26.9 | 2.6 | 16.2 | 1.3 | 12.5% | -0.5% | 17 |
Anthony Davis | $11,600 | $11,500 | $15,900 | 1.45 | 37.9 | -0.2 | 54.9 | -2.5 | 30.7% | 0.6% | 12 |
Omer Asik | $3,600 | $3,200 | $7,400 | 0.68 | 19.1 | 0.7 | 13.0 | 2.6 | 9.7% | 3.8% | 16 |
Buddy Hield | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,600 | 0.72 | 20.7 | 1.2 | 15.0 | 1.4 | 25.0% | -1.7% | 22 |
Langston Galloway | $3,600 | $3,100 | $6,500 | 0.74 | 18.5 | -1.6 | 13.7 | 1.5 | 19.9% | 3.5% | 26 |
Elite Plays – Tim Frazier, Anthony Davis
Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield (GPP)
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 218.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 107.8 | Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 2.3 | Pace +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Marcus Smart | Kelly Olynyk | Amir Johnson | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 20 | 14 | 28 | 19 | 13 | 2016-17 | 16 | 28 | 30 | 18 | 15 |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics travel to Indiana on the second night of a back-to-back. Both teams are playing after traveling, so this game could feature a lot of misses from tired legs or a lot of points from poor defense. Vegas currently has it as the second-highest implied total of the slate, meaning we need exposure to this game. Al Horford did not play last night but is traveling with the team and has a shot at playing tonight. Kelly Olynyk stepped up in place of Horford last night and went bonkers for 19 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and a steal. He connected on three triples and is an elite cash game play if Horford misses again tonight. His ownership should be through the roof after a 10x game, but make sure that Horford is out before plugging him into your lineup.
Marcus Smart also dominated with 12 points, 10 assists, six rebounds, and three steals. He’ll also be extremely chalky on the second night of a back-to-back but should still be considered an elite cash game option. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley still led the team with 17 shots apiece last night and should dominate the ball again tonight. Thomas is still averaging over 5x on his current DraftKings salary and is a slightly better option over there due to the three-point bonus. Thomas has only taken fewer than six three-point attempts once this season. He’s also been shooting poorly, so if he catches fire, he’s easily over 50 fantasy points. Avery Bradley is now a risky tournament option due to his inflated salary and Marcus Smart’s presence in the starting lineup. He’s still a viable cash game play because the minutes are there, but he carries risk at these salary levels. He’ll need to contribute in multiple areas to really exceed value.
- Injury Watch:
Al Horford (questionable)
Jae Crowder (out)
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 107.7 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.8 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (13 of 22)
- Boston Celtics Pace
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 101.9 (9 of 22)
Pace +/-: 2.3 (6 of 22)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 215.8 (26 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | $8,200 | $7,900 | $11,200 | 1.15 | 34.4 | -0.4 | 39.5 | 0.1 | 34.2% | 2.4% | 20 |
Avery Bradley | $6,900 | $7,000 | $10,600 | 0.96 | 37.2 | -0.1 | 35.8 | 1.3 | 22.7% | 0.9% | 14 |
Marcus Smart | $4,900 | $5,200 | $7,500 | 0.69 | 31.4 | -0.8 | 21.6 | 0.8 | 22.1% | 0.4% | 28 |
Kelly Olynyk | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,800 | 0.41 | 26.1 | 0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 9.7% | 0.0% | 19 |
Amir Johnson | $4,200 | $4,300 | $7,700 | 0.85 | 21.6 | 0.2 | 18.4 | -2.3 | 15.4% | -1.9% | 13 |
Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk (if Horford is out)
Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (Cash)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers started C.J. Miles last night and had Monta Ellis come off the bench. They basically reversed roles, and Ellis went off like we had suspected. He was around one percent ownership throughout the industry and should pick up a healthy amount of ownership tonight. The Pacers have the second-highest implied team total currently with the Celtics actually struggling on defense to start the season. Paul George injured his non-shooting hand thumb but came back in to exceed value in overtime. George is an elite option again tonight and actually saw his salary drop slightly on DraftKings while it stayed the same on FanDuel.
Teague disappointed owners last night, but this should be a nice bounce-back spot for him. Myles Turner was in foul trouble against the Sixers and only played 20 minutes last night. This is also a nice bounce back spot for him, but he’s only viable in tournaments since he has been in a slump lately. With such a high implied team total, there should be points to go around for everybody. This would likely be the game to avoid Al Jefferson since it is not expected to be slow at all.
- Injury Watch:
Rodney Stuckey (out)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.0 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.3 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (12 of 22)
- Indiana Pacers Pace
Pace of Play: 101.8 (8 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 101.9 (9 of 22)
Pace +/-: 0.1 (9 of 22)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 112.3 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -8.0 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 216.7 (29 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Teague | $6,300 | $6,600 | $10,400 | 0.95 | 30.6 | -1 | 29.1 | 4.1 | 27.3% | 0.8% | 16 |
C.J. Miles | $4,400 | $5,100 | $7,500 | 1.02 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 22.8 | 2.0 | 22.1% | -0.4% | 28 |
Paul George | $8,500 | $7,900 | $13,200 | 1.03 | 33.8 | -2.7 | 34.9 | -2.6 | 26.5% | -0.4% | 30 |
Thaddeus Young | $5,400 | $5,400 | $9,900 | 0.78 | 28.7 | -3 | 22.4 | -5.5 | 14.8% | -1.7% | 18 |
Myles Turner | $6,800 | $6,700 | $11,000 | 1.14 | 27.8 | -0.7 | 31.8 | -3.3 | 20.9% | -1.2% | 15 |
Monta Ellis | $5,300 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 0.64 | 33.2 | -3.4 | 21.4 | -6.0 | 16.9% | -3.0% | 28 |
Elite Plays -Paul George, Monta Ellis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Myles Turner, Jeff Teague
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 204.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 13.5 | Vegas Spread | -13.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 95.5 | Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 3.5 | Pace +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Sergio Rodriguez | Gerald Henderson | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Jahlil Okafor | Proj. Starter | Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Dwight Howard | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 27 | 27 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2016-17 | 28 | 6 | 27 | 16 | 26 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Process (Joel Embiid) will be sitting out the second night of a back-to-back and Jahlil Okafor is expected to start in his place. Okafor should be avoided against Dwight Howard tonight. The Sixers in general should be avoided in a game that has them with the second-lowest implied total on the slate. The bench players should make an impact in his game, but if you can peg which one will exceed value on an 11-game slate, you deserve to win something. Ersan Ilyasova, Nik Stauskas, and Richaun Holmes are the best options to choose from. If Jahlil Okafor gets into foul trouble against Howard, we could see Holmes playing 28-30 minutes. He’s actually a viable punt option with his salary sitting under $4k on both major sites.
- Injury Watch:
Joel Embiid (out)
Jerryd Bayless (out)
Nerlens Noel (out)
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 94.7 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.5 (21 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (9 of 22)
- Philadelphia 76ers Pace
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 103.6 (5 of 22)
Pace +/-: 3.5 (4 of 22)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.6 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.7 (8 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sergio Rodriguez | $5,200 | $5,300 | $8,600 | 0.81 | 29.9 | 0.3 | 24.3 | -2.2 | 24.5% | -1.1% | 27 |
Gerald Henderson | $4,000 | $3,500 | $9,000 | 0.62 | 25.3 | 0.8 | 15.6 | 1.4 | 18.3% | 1.5% | 27 |
Robert Covington | $4,700 | $5,400 | $9,500 | 0.70 | 28.6 | 1.9 | 20.0 | 6.6 | 14.9% | 1.8% | 6 |
Dario Saric | $4,100 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 0.69 | 27.0 | -2.2 | 18.8 | -0.4 | 20.0% | -3.0% | 9 |
Jahlil Okafor | $5,100 | $5,200 | $8,700 | 0.99 | 20.7 | 2.3 | 20.5 | 3.8 | 26.4% | 1.6% | 1 |
Elite Plays – N/A
Secondary Plays – Richaun Holmes (GPP), Ersan Ilyasova (GPP)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have been playing really well over their last three games, defeating the Rockets, Cavs, and Bulls. Expect the great play to continue tonight against the Sixers, who just won their first game last night. Don’t just look at the large spread and think avoid. Multiple players have to do well to make turn this game into a blowout. The Hawks have the third-highest implied team total. Dennis Schroder is the primary ball handler and deserves to be considered an elite option tonight. Dwight Howard is an elite option any time he takes the floor right now and his home/road splits show that he is dominant at home. He’s an elite cash game option with GPP upside. His ownership could be slightly lower than it should be given the perceived blowout risk.
Paul Millsap also gets an elite matchup and is cheaper than Howard on FanDuel but more expensive than him on DraftKings. He makes sense on a FanDuel, where two PFs are mandatory. Kent Bazemore quietly put up 30+ FPs in two games in the past week but would need to see 30+ minutes to exceed value since he’s putting up .81 FPM on a 19 percent true usage rate this season. Mike Muscala also deserves consideration in this game on DraftKings. You can use him as a punt C or on two-center GPP teams. He’s sitting under $4k and is averaging 20 MPG and a .92 FPM. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thabo Sefolosha also deserve a mention off the bench. Sefolosha has seen 27 or more minutes in three out of his last four games. His salary is somewhat inflated, so he is not a mandatory option but someone to definitely consider. THJ has had his minutes really fluctuate, so he’s only a deep GPP option.
- Injury Watch:
Mike Scott (out)
Tiago Splitter (out)
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 108.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.0 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 (11 of 22)
- Atlanta Hawks Pace
Pace of Play: 103.0 (4 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 103.6 (5 of 22)
Pace +/-: 0.6 (8 of 22)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 216.3 (27 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Schroder | $6,000 | $6,500 | $10,400 | 0.91 | 30.2 | 1.7 | 27.5 | 3.1 | 28.6% | 2.7% | 28 |
Kyle Korver | $3,500 | $3,900 | $8,000 | 0.57 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 14.9 | 2.1 | 15.4% | -2.7% | 6 |
Kent Bazemore | $4,600 | $5,100 | $8,900 | 0.80 | 27.8 | 0.9 | 22.3 | 7.3 | 19.0% | 0.7% | 27 |
Paul Millsap | $7,800 | $8,000 | $13,700 | 1.09 | 32.6 | 1.9 | 35.6 | 2.3 | 27.5% | -0.1% | 16 |
Dwight Howard | $8,100 | $7,800 | $12,100 | 1.30 | 28.8 | 1.2 | 37.4 | 1.2 | 22.1% | -2.7% | 26 |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard, Mike Muscala
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP), Thabo Sefolosha (GPP)
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
New York Knicks | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 205.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 97.5 | Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -3.6 | Pace +/- | -0.2 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Derrick Rose | Courtney Lee | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Joakim Noah | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Pascal Siakam | Jonas Valanciunas | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 2016-17 | 1 | 26 | 25 | 15 | 10 |
New York Knicks
The Knicks travel to Toronto after a disappointing loss to the Celtics, where Carmelo Anthony and Brandon Jennings were ejected. The Knicks have one of the lowest implied team totals, and this could be a good spot to avoid them with 11 games on the slate. The Raptors are a strong defensive team that really plays well at home. Both teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Carmelo Anthony could come out and try to make a statement after being ejected, but it’s only worth a GPP shot tonight. He’s been cash game playable but is not viable as a cash game option tonight. No one really stands out as a must-play, so maybe they’ll get a boost from their bench. If you’re making multiple lineups Brandon Jennings or Justin Holiday could be considered, since they are so cheap across the industry.
- Injury Watch:
N/A
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.5 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.8 (21 of 22)
- New York Knicks Pace
Pace of Play: 99.3 (16 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 95.7 (19 of 22)
Pace +/-: -3.6 (21 of 22)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 182.3 (3 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Rose | $6,200 | $5,800 | $9,600 | 0.92 | 31.4 | 0.8 | 28.9 | 2.9 | 27.4% | -0.6% | 15 |
Courtney Lee | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 0.58 | 31.1 | 4.9 | 17.9 | 3.7 | 14.8% | -1.4% | 3 |
Carmelo Anthony | $7,700 | $7,200 | $13,400 | 1.01 | 33.9 | 1.4 | 34.4 | 5.7 | 29.1% | -0.4% | 3 |
Kristaps Porzingis | $6,900 | $7,300 | $11,100 | 0.99 | 32.0 | 0.4 | 31.6 | 6.4 | 21.3% | 3.6% | 3 |
Joakim Noah | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 0.91 | 23.8 | 1.6 | 21.7 | 1.7 | 13.1% | -0.1% | 12 |
Elite Plays -N/A
Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony (GPP)
Toronto Raptors
DeMar DeRozan has been on an absolute tear, leading the league in scoring with 34.1 PPG. He’s had absolutely empty fantasy lines, doing most of his damage from scoring. Everyone has been trying to predict when his hot shooting will stop, but don’t expect that tonight. He might shoot a low percentage from the field on the second night of a back-to-back, but he will get to the line to make up for it. His price has spiked considerably, and he really hurts your team’s flexibility on a jam-packed slate. Still, the league’s leading scorer deserves consideration as long as he stays hot.
Kyle Lowry has quietly averaged 45.81 DKFPs over his last four games while most of the attention has been on DeRozan. He’s a solid cash game play who enjoys dishing the ball as much as he enjoys shooting it. Jonas Valanciunas only played 20 minutes last night and will likely be eased in again tonight. He’s too risky of a cash game play, and the low minutes projection also make him too risky for tournaments. DeMarre Carroll is not completely healthy and should likely be avoided on a full slate.
- Injury Watch:
Terrence Ross (questionable)
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.4 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (2 of 22)
- Toronto Raptors Pace
Pace of Play: 95.9 (27 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 95.7 (19 of 22)
Pace +/-: -0.2 (11 of 22)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.0 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.4 (18 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Lowry | $7,800 | $7,700 | $12,100 | 0.91 | 38.8 | 2.3 | 35.5 | 6.0 | 27.6% | 0.0% | 1 |
DeMar DeRozan | $9,000 | $8,400 | $12,200 | 1.18 | 37.5 | 0.3 | 44.2 | -2.7 | 37.5% | -0.9% | 26 |
DeMarre Carroll | $3,900 | $3,700 | $8,500 | 0.57 | 25.7 | -4.5 | 14.7 | -4.6 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 25 |
Pascal Siakam | $3,500 | $3,000 | $7,200 | 0.67 | 17.5 | 0.2 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 12.5% | 2.9% | 15 |
Jonas Valanciunas | $6,100 | $6,400 | $10,300 | 0.92 | 31.1 | -3.2 | 28.7 | -6.5 | 19.2% | -9.7% | 10 |
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry
Secondary Plays – N/A
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 209.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 105.5 | Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.1 | Pace +/- | -3.4 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Kyle Anderson | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Proj. Starter | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Corey Brewer | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 11 | 2016-17 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and we could see any number of players sitting. The only player we can feel confident in using is Kawhi Leonard. Leonard finally had a bad game and should have very low ownership levels with his salary inflated and some recency bias mixed in. He leads the team with a true usage rate of 32.9 percent and would really become an elite option if any of the main cogs misses this game. Pau Gasol finally had a good game last night but should not be chased since he only played 13 minutes against these same Rockets earlier this week. The Spurs are a team we’ll have to wait and see on. If Tony Parker sits on the second night of a back-to-back, Patty Mills becomes an elite fantasy option again.
- Injury Watch:
Danny Green (out)
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.1 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (4 of 22)
- San Antonio Spurs Pace
Pace of Play: 96.1 (25 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 96.2 (17 of 22)
Pace +/-: 0.1 (9 of 22)
- Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.5 (16 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tony Parker | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,800 | 0.51 | 26.6 | 13.6 | 16.4% | 9 | |||
Danny Green | $4,500 | $4,500 | $7,900 | 0.91 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 23.6 | 0.0 | 17.5% | 0.0% | 23 |
Kawhi Leonard | $8,900 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.32 | 32.4 | 0.4 | 42.8 | -1.5 | 32.9% | 0.3% | 24 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | $7,300 | $6,900 | $10,900 | 0.96 | 30.3 | -2.1 | 29.1 | -1.3 | 26.3% | 0.8% | 24 |
Pau Gasol | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 0.97 | 21.9 | -2.9 | 21.3 | -4.2 | 19.2% | -1.2% | 11 |
Patty Mills | $4,200 | $4,900 | $7,500 | 0.80 | 24.1 | 5.4 | 19.3 | 1.5 | 20.9% | -1.5% | 9 |
Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Patty Mills (If Parker is out)
Houston Rockets
James Harden pretty much proved he is matchup proof, carving the Spurs up in San Antonio for a triple-double in their last game. Harden now has six games of over 60+ fantasy points on DraftKings, with two of those being 70 or more. He’s only had two “bad” games this season, but he will be an elite fantasy option all season long. He’s starting to creep up on Russell Westbrook as the most expensive player but is still slightly discounted. The Spurs might try something new, but on the second night of a back-to-back, Harden deserves a long look on a majority of your lineups.
Ryan Anderson is still too cheap, having put up consecutive games of 30+ FPs while playing 30 minutes in five out of his last six games. Consider him more of a tournament option because he is so reliant on scoring for his fantasy output. If LaMarcus Aldridge gets ruled out of this game, he should be considered an elite option because there should theoretically be more available rebounds. Eric Gordon is still seeing 32 or more minutes while coming off the bench and is also a viable tournament option on DraftKings, where his salary has dipped under $5k. He does not have to do much to exceed value. Trevor Ariza is also a viable play because he saw 41 minutes against the Spurs in their previous game and is averaging 33.4 MPG on the season.
- Injury Watch:
Patrick Beverley
- Houston Rockets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 107.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.4 (19 of 22)
- Houston Rockets Pace
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
Tonight’s Projected Pace: 96.2 (17 of 22)
Pace +/-: -3.4 (20 of 22)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.6 (4 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | Rosters Sal. | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
James Harden | $11,500 | $11,300 | $15,300 | 1.50 | 37.7 | 1.5 | 56.6 | -0.9 | 38.8% | 0.4% | 13 |
Trevor Ariza | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 0.69 | 33.6 | 1.8 | 23.3 | 0.5 | 14.7% | -0.4% | 7 |
Corey Brewer | $3,500 | $3,400 | $7,000 | 0.58 | 15.2 | -0.1 | 8.8 | -3.5 | 14.6% | -0.6% | 10 |
Ryan Anderson | $5,300 | $5,300 | $9,500 | 0.73 | 31.6 | 2.3 | 23.0 | 3.7 | 17.9% | 0.7% | 13 |
Clint Capela | $4,500 | $4,500 | $9,200 | 0.93 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 21.3 | 1.6 | 18.6% | 4.2% | 5 |
Eric Gordon | $5,000 | $4,600 | $9,400 | 0.70 | 32.3 | -0.2 | 22.7 | -4.0 | 21.1% | -1.4% | 7 |